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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1008

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#1 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/25/2011 4:47:33 PM | message detail
Contest in a week and all I care about is the Diablo 2 ladder reset.

Best




~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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"I learned to lucid dream just so that I could think about Ulti even while sleeping." -foolmo
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#2 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/25/2011 4:48:30 PM | message detail
ONE very long week until the contest begins. But to get yourself by until then, listen to Episode 2 of The Show.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60771860
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#3 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/25/2011 4:49:10 PM | message detail
#4 | voltch | Posted 10/25/2011 4:52:50 PM | message detail
Squall for the championship!
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Vote for this guy in every contest: War
#5 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/25/2011 6:14:42 PM | message detail
I've got Shep taking out the palindrome.

However, the more I think about it, the more I think Leon/Ada can take out Sub/Scorp.
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#6 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/25/2011 6:22:02 PM | message detail
Also, was just thinking how cool it would be to re-run the 2002 contest next year to celebrate a decade of contests.

Actually, after thinking more, that's a terrible idea.
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http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg
#7 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 10/25/2011 6:22:33 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #006
Also, was just thinking how cool it would be to re-run the 2002 contest next year to celebrate a decade of contests.

Actually, after thinking more, that's a terrible idea.


That would be a terrible contest but I would fully approve.
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#8 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/25/2011 6:24:02 PM | message detail
I'm against it solely because of the Snake/Squall 2/15 match.
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#9 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/25/2011 7:20:46 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Also, was just thinking how cool it would be to re-run the 2002 contest next year to celebrate a decade of contests.

Actually, after thinking more, that's a terrible idea.


Perhaps it would be worth it alone just to see if Gordon Freeman can break 70% on Tina Armstrong now...
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Currently Playing - StarCraft: Brood War
#10 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/25/2011 9:50:25 PM | message detail
Dammit, the picture topic purged? I wanted to make a few more but really don't want to accidentally rip off anyone else's idea.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#11 | redrocket | Posted 10/26/2011 12:56:19 AM | message detail
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #006
Also, was just thinking how cool it would be to re-run the 2002 contest next year to celebrate a decade of contests.

Actually, after thinking more, that's a terrible idea.
That would be a terrible contest but I would fully approve.


It still would not be the worst contest we've had.
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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch
#12 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/26/2011 1:29:32 AM | message detail
2002 Matches that Would Probably be Debatable Today

Round 1
Aya Brea vs. Terry Bogard
Ryo Hazuki vs. Guybrush Threepwood (...this match)
Kyo Kusanagi vs. Abe (...and this match)

Round 2 and Beyond
Alucard vs. Duke Nukem
Sephiroth vs. Mega Man
Mario vs. Cloud Strife
Sephiroth vs. Samus Aran (assuming Sephiroth beats MM to get there)
Mario vs. Snake


It's complete junk before the Noble 9 throws down (giving Duke a "debated match status" against Alucard is probably generous). It's fun to reminisce, but that bracket would be pretty bad in 2011.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#13 | shane15 | Posted 10/26/2011 5:21:40 AM | message detail
They could always have it during the summer as a bonus and have the next main contest in October again.

As for this poll does this give any of the lower FF rivals a shot at winning their matches? i.e Bartz vs. Gilgamesh and Cecil vs. Golbez
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#14 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/26/2011 6:44:46 AM | message detail
Bartz/Gilgamesh should be the heavy heavy favorites over Guybrush/LeChuck and it has nothing to do with mainline Final Fantasies. Dissidia has shown to have an impact on contest strength. Monkey Island has, for lack of a better way to describe it, not, especially with a day match.
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif
#15 | MegaWentEvil | Posted 10/26/2011 6:47:47 AM | message detail | (edited)
I wonder if the Gilgamesh fanbase from the Duodecim boards will make a difference in Bartz & Gilgamesh vs. Guybrush & LeChuck?

Knowing them, they'll probably to try rally for GILGAMESH.
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#16 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/26/2011 6:51:01 AM | message detail
And I'm still real mad Cecil could have drawn a match with Guybrush and instead drew an extremely unlikely win twice in a row now. I thought Bacon loved FFIV, rig the damn bracket in our favor just once!
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#17 | White_Tiger | Posted 10/26/2011 1:35:04 PM | message detail
would Ryu beat Luigi one on one ?
#18 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 10/26/2011 1:51:11 PM | message detail
No.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#19 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/26/2011 2:08:35 PM | message detail
It would be close these days (lot closer than it woulda been in 05-06), but I'd still probably side with Luigi. Ryu should give the best non-N9 Nintendo characters some tough fights, however. Speaking of which, rank the following Nintendo near-elites in terms of strength:

Ganondorf
Zelda
Bowser
Luigi
Yoshi
Kirby
Blastoise
Charizard
Pikachu
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#20 | DomaDragoon | Posted 10/26/2011 2:11:08 PM | message detail
It's complete junk before the Noble 9 throws down (giving Duke a "debated match status" against Alucard is probably generous). It's fun to reminisce, but that bracket would be pretty bad in 2011.

Even if it's not debatable in results (and I think there may be a few surprises beyond what you have listed), there could be a separate contest/bracket where you guess the difference in vote percentage from the original matches (whether it be just for round 1 where the same matches are guaranteed, or all throughout is up for debate). Sure, it wouldn't be my first choice for a contest, or even in my top 5, but I don't think it would be that bad.
#21 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 10/26/2011 2:34:55 PM | message detail
Speaking of which, rank the following Nintendo near-elites in terms of strength:

Missing No
Charizard
Yoshi
Pikachu
Ganondorf
Luigi
Kirby
Bowser
Zelda
Fox McCloud
Blastoise (?)
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"Getting lucky 100% of the time... it's called PRO SKILL."
-BlAcK TuRtLe
#22 | ChemisTRE | Posted 10/26/2011 2:41:13 PM | message detail
Charizard
Zelda
Yoshi
Bowser
Ganondorf
Luigi
Kirby
Pikachu
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Dilated -ChemisTRE-
#23 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/26/2011 2:41:25 PM | message detail
I guess the US ASV hates Final Fantasy. Since the ASV started, "I've never played a single game in the main FF series" started going up in percentage in the US.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#24 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/26/2011 2:45:17 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #012
Alucard vs. Duke Nukem
Sephiroth vs. Mega Man


Eh, neither of these matches are debatable. Duke Nukem doesn't get 58% on Magus, Duke Nukem Forever or not.

Sephiroth's weakened, but 48% on Snake 2010 >> 45% on Snake 2006
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#25 | Blairville | Posted 10/26/2011 2:45:33 PM | message detail
Remind me, is the first match of the contest a night match or day match?
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it's been so long since I've gone to the village to visit my animal friends. I'm excited to play this ****.-Mer
#26 | paulg235 | Posted 10/26/2011 2:47:13 PM | message detail
Charizard
Luigi
Bowser
Kirby
Pikachu
Yoshi
Ganondorf
Zelda
Blastoise
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#27 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/26/2011 2:48:12 PM | message detail
First contest poll will start at midnight.
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"
#28 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/26/2011 4:08:29 PM | message detail
Ganondorf
Luigi
Kirby
Charizard
Bowser
Yoshi
lol censor bypass
Zelda
Pikachu
Bowser
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http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg
#29 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/26/2011 6:31:44 PM | message detail
Ganondorf
Charizard
Luigi
Zelda
Pikachu
Bowser
Yoshi
Kirby
Blastoise

I don't like this list at all. I feel like this would be the order in most H2H matches but that Kirby for example would be much stronger indirectly on a lot of non-Nintendo characters than a bunch of the guys above him.
#30 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/27/2011 1:44:49 AM | message detail
http://oi39.tinypic.com/2my584w.jpg
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#31 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/27/2011 2:13:27 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #030
http://oi39.tinypic.com/2my584w.jpg


The best. XD
Bacon needs to pick that.
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Support Bahamut if we ever get another real contest.
#32 | shane15 | Posted 10/27/2011 6:38:32 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | Posted: 10/27/2011 9:44:49 AM | #030
http://oi39.tinypic.com/2my584w.jpg


They deserve to win the whole contest with that pic.
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#33 | XIII_rocks | Posted 10/27/2011 6:55:57 AM | message detail
"Ryo Hazuki vs. Guybrush Threepwood (...this match)
Kyo Kusanagi vs. Abe (...and this match)"

Dowant.jpg
#34 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/27/2011 3:19:58 PM | message detail
#35 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/27/2011 5:28:45 PM | message detail
The GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60791725

Please take a few minutes to support the project. YOU decide who gets inducted! I'll be plugging this throughout the next month, so I apologize in advance if it gets really annoying.

Also, we're less than a week from the contest and have gone almost 24 hours without a contest related post. I really doubt that's ever happened before.
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Yoblazer: http://oi53.tinypic.com/2hd0dh1.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#36 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/27/2011 5:29:54 PM | message detail
Well, I feel like we've argued about all there is to argue at this point.

There aren't a lot of points of contention with this bracket.

And nobody really seems to care enough about the contest to argue passionately for long stretches of time anyhow.
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#37 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/27/2011 5:32:07 PM | message detail
I am CERTAIN that Tidus called her "Yo-na" at least once and anyone who doubts it is DEAF.
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Yoblazer: http://oi52.tinypic.com/ad21i1.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#38 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/27/2011 5:32:37 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #037
I am CERTAIN that Tidus called her "Yo-na" at least once and anyone who doubts it is DEAF.


I will fight you.
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"
#39 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/27/2011 5:40:04 PM | message detail
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/27/2011 8:28:45 PM | message detail | quote
The GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60791725


I think it would have been a lot better to run the "GameFAQs Contests Match Hall of Fame" instead, because there are a lot more contest matches than individual contest entrants.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
#40 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/27/2011 7:52:18 PM | message detail
That one is Ulti's, so it's up to him. IIRC, we did them almost concurrently last year.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#41 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/27/2011 9:06:17 PM | message detail
Holy s***, 0 votes for "Yes, I've received a letter from a lawyer about it" at the end of the board vote. First time I ever saw any option with 0 votes at the end of the board vote. But to be fair, the vote totals are crappy right now, probably because of the epic World Series game going on right now.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#42 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 10/27/2011 9:58:55 PM | message detail
48% liars, amirite?

Also lol @ ISP enforcement.

YOU: What happened to my internet?
ISP: Blah DMCA blah we'll turn it back on.

COURT: You must turn over these IP addresses.
ISP: We can only process 30 lookup requests ... a month!
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"Getting lucky 100% of the time... it's called PRO SKILL."
-BlAcK TuRtLe
#43 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/27/2011 10:01:14 PM | message detail
Also lol @ ISP enforcement.

When this poll happened back in 2005, the ISP option had under 2%, so it seems like ISPs are taking illegal downloading/uploading more seriously these days. I'm surprised that the last poll option is winning this poll when the fourth poll option won it back in 2005.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#44 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 10/27/2011 10:15:21 PM | message detail
My guess is the increase in availability of films and older television episodes via video game consoles as well as Hulu, etc. Downloading is free, sure, but its convenience is also a huge motivation.
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"Getting lucky 100% of the time... it's called PRO SKILL."
-BlAcK TuRtLe
#45 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/27/2011 10:22:56 PM | message detail
On the subject of music, that is more easily accessible thanks to Youtube. However, Youtube was less than 1 year old at the time of the 2005 poll. Also, legal downloading methods have gained popularity in the past few years, because of stuff like iTunes. And as for games, you have Steam, Xbox Live, and PSN.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#46 | creativename | Posted 10/28/2011 1:07:48 AM | message detail
Hello all! Hope you've been well :) I thought these contest were history, nice to see another one.

Although the concept is disappointing. Better to have a fictional character allowed contest. Also with rivalries the first thing I thought of is Mario/Sonic. If it's not going to have Mario/Sonic or Mario/Crono then the format is pretty unexciting. I think the only good thing to come out of this is Frog/Magus.

Bracket is fairly predictable - what are the debated matches? Only ones that really stand out to me are Big Boss/The Boss vs. Tidus/Jecht, Alucard/Dracula vs. Frog/Magus, Samus/Ridley vs. Ryu/Ken, Link/Ganon vs. Cloud/Sephiroth.

What will the title for the poll be? Might have some minor effect. Will it be "Best Rivals"?

The "chemistry" aspect is mildly interesting. So assuming that Ganon wins for "Least useful partner" - the partner who adds the least to the team strength - who is the second most useless? Ridley? And are there any partners with negative "chemistry", who could conceivably make the team weaker than the stronger character by himself?
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#47 | The Real Truth | Posted 10/28/2011 1:16:59 AM | message detail
Waluigi
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#48 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/28/2011 1:23:44 AM | message detail
Hola, creative. Glad to see you! First up, I'm wondering why you would think these contests were history? I think SB has more or less gone on the record saying they'll be around for a while, and contest polls almost always draw more votes than non-contest polls. I'm not sure if it's enough to up for the prize money given away, but who knows (actually, this is the first time I can recall the prize money being decreased between contests).

Anyway, just about the whole board agrees with you about Mario/Sonic. Most saw that as the one shot to take out Link/Ganon. We rallied for it hard here, but Mario/Bowser simply received too many noms from the rest of the site. A lot of blame was thrown SBAllen's way for not including Mario/Sonic in the nomination database.

The single most debated match at the moment is Phoenix/Edgeworth vs. Gordon/Breen. That whole division is really debated, which Frog/Magus and Alucard/Dracula as the front runners. The Pokemon Trainers vs. Luigi/Waluigi has also generated discussion. Overall though, the board is pretty apathetic toward the contest. Even with only a few days to go, we're still getting dry spells with zero discussion here.

The contest's name is "Rivalry Rumble."

I've been thinking about the "chemistry" and synergy generated by these rivalries, and I get the feeling that Ganondorf is being underrated. Sure, he doesn't do for Link what Magus and Frog will likely do for each other, but I wouldn't call him the least useful partner. He's actually got a lengthy history with Link that I think has been unfairly disregarded simply because Link is already so strong. Ganon is the main villain in 5/7 of the strongest Zelda games on this site. I think Dr. Breen is a good candidate for The Suck. He's one of the primary reasons that many people are siding with Phoenix Wright - because they feel he does absolutely nothing for Gordon.

As for an actual negative effect... maybe Rodrigo from Assassin's Creed. Ezio relies largely on his awesome character design for votes. Sharing the stage with a bald fat dude may hurt that.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#49 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/28/2011 1:24:18 AM | message detail
And yes, Waluigi might be another.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#50 | creativename | Posted 10/28/2011 7:10:27 AM | message detail
I think while Ganon has some strength in his own right, he adds virtually nothing to Link. We saw this in how Link SFF stomped Ganon, and this situation is similar. Almost anyone who'd vote for Ganon would vote for Link anyway. So I feel there is very little synergy there - and especially among the partners of "elite" characters like Link, I believe Ganon is about as useless as you can get.

Ganon might add more to his team's raw strength than some of the unknown partners, but I think in a relative sense - what he adds compared to the strength of the stronger character by himself - Ganon is bottom of the barrel. Most of the unknown characters have partners that are already pretty weak, so they add something greater in a relative sense.

I could see Waluigi attracting anti-votes, yes.

I do still wonder what the poll name will be, if it's "Best Rivalry" some voters might vote differently than with other titles.
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