GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1007
Also, you realize 30% on 2010 Link would put Crono and Sonic under Ryu, right? Not sure why you're flying in the face of virtually everything we saw with those rankings anyway. Why is Snake so far below Cloud and underneath Sephiroth, even though you set them equal? Why is Samus even further away from Cloud? You're basically saying that Link didn't hardly SFF Mario at all with those numbers, too. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
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People
came up with explanations for why Missingno would not overperform, but
nobody, to my recollection, came up with an explanation for why he would
underperform. People said Missingno would not gain any in popularity and there would be little rallies or momentum against Yoshi, but I don't recall may people saying that Missingno would become straight out less popular. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest! |
From: LOLContests | #402 Missingno was able to beat Crono because of those rallies. If those rallies become ineffective or less effective against Yoshi, then guess what that means? Missingno becomes "weaker." --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
Didn't
the Crono match have something crazy like 90k votes which blew away
every other 12 hour match that contest? Its obvious to see it was rally
power for Missingno there --- http://pixelatedgeek.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/header-fate-zero.jpg http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
Yeah, it was like 20k more than any other day match for pretty much the entire contest. --- I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN |
Yep, Crono/Missingno had 90,000+ votes. No other 12-hour match came anywhere close to matching that. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Missingno
was able to beat Crono because of those rallies. If those rallies
become ineffective or less effective against Yoshi, then guess what that
means? Missingno had rallies against Yoshi as well. And Crono/Missingno was clearly 50/50 from the very start. I'm not sure 4chan was even rallying then. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest! |
Crono/Missingno had over 12,000 votes by the end of the first hour, which was easily the most of any day match. Yoshi/Missingno also had about 15,000 fewer votes than Crono/Missingno. You can try to act like Missingno was getting rallied as heavily against Yoshi as he was against Crono, but the evidence ain't there. Also, Crono/Missingno got 10,000+ votes for the second hour, too. No other match in the contest got that many votes in its second hour. The rally was there from very early on. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
30%
is ridiculous for Crono and even Sonic. Some of the other N9 numbers
don't look too bad for 2004-2008 Link, but not for BL or 2010 Link. --- 90s games > 00s games |
I
guess he's assuming no overperformance for Link against Sonic to get
that 30% number for Sonic. I suppose it's fair to argue Link wouldn't
SFF him, but based on how bad the rest of Sonic's division looks if you
assume that, I'd say it's safer to assume Link did overperform there. --- http://images.cheezburger.com/completestore/2011/8/22/2094c2de-bae8-4f5b-9f27-67eaff0aaeaf.jpg |
Yoshi/Missingno
was only ~10,000 votes shy of Crono/Missingno, taking into account that
Yoshi is less popular than Crono. Taking into account LFF lowering the
votals, and the fact that Crono/Missingno was just a huge match in
general, I don't see any huge discrepancies in the votals. Also, you realize 30% on 2010 Link would put Crono and Sonic under Ryu, right? Edit: Not if you take into account the fact that Clinkeroth was obviously being anti-voted. Ryu hasn't looked at 30 on BL in years. And C. Falcon has certainly never looked to be a high end midcarder either. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest! |
Crono/Missingno
had a large number of extra votes throughout the match- let's call this
the bandwagon effect. This is what caused high votals in Mario/Crono
2003, L-Block's run, etc. This probably amounted to something like
10,000+ votes in Crono/Missingno. This was not included in my 55-56%
figures at all. If Missingno did change strength between rounds, the
actual Crono/Yoshi gap could be substantially above 55-56%. I found at least 2700 extra votes on top of the baseline for the match, indicating rallying (or stuffing, no way to tell, but I presume it was rallying without convincing proof otherwise) during the match. This was potentially as high as 6000 but 2700 has pretty good confidence. I gave Missingno 80% of the rallied votes, and then adjusted for day/night to get 55-56% for Crono on Yoshi. I do think Crono is worth more than that on Yoshi and Missingno did in fact become weaker between rounds as was predicted by a lot of people, but 55-56% is pretty safe as a floor. --- 90s games > 00s games |
I
don't think you can simply hand wave it away. This is a case where
people need to step away from stats and take a look back. The amount of
talk outside of GameFAQs between Crono/Sephiroth and Yoshi was
noticeably different. We've also had cases where rallying against Mario proved to not work. As simply said beating Yoshi was less funny than beating Crono/Sephiroth. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
Bowser Vs. Charizard also got only 7,000 votes less that Crono/Missingno despite being a LFF/SFF match. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest! |
10,000
votes is a ton in a 12-hour match. Crono/Missingno had like 20% more
votes than Missingno/Yoshi. 20%. That's like 4 standard deviations or
something. Crono got more votes than any other Noble Niner in round 1
except for Link. Crono got more votes in losing to Missingno in 12
hours than Majora's Mask got in 24 hours in winning the GOTD final. --- 90s games > 00s games |
Extended out to 24 hours, Crono/Missingno was on pace for around 150k votes, levels we haven't seen for a long time. --- 90s games > 00s games |
Anyway don't look any further than the GameSpot matches for variation in rallying strength. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
From: LOLContests | #411 It was more like 12-13,000 votes. Nintendo SFF matches generally don't suffer bad vote totals anyway since they're more widely known. That's more of a Square thing. I mean, they do, but not by 12-13,000 votes. The common sense answer here is that Missingno didn't have as much outside power against Yoshi as he did against Crono or Sephiroth, and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
Even
if you don't believe Yoshi was a less likely target to be rallied
against you could also say that because Yoshi is weaker they needed less
support in order to get the win. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
Actually, let me take that back. It was closer to 14,000 than 12,000 votes. From: charmander6000 | #419 This is also a good point. In general, ralliers don't do much more than just enough to get the job done. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
I'm
not denying that there wasn't some sort of discrepancy in rallying,
just that it wasn't anything drastic, or certainly not enough to bump
Crono up really high. Crono was clearly close to Missingno (Was 4chan
rallying from the first minute of the poll?), and Missingno was clearly
close to Yoshi, since I don't think he would get *less* popular after
taking down a Noble 9er, just at the very least revert to his base
popularity. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest! |
From: LOLContests | #421 There's really not much reason to believe it wasn't a noticeable difference. Crono doesn't struggle to beat Yoshi. --- http://images.cheezburger.com/completestore/2011/8/22/2094c2de-bae8-4f5b-9f27-67eaff0aaeaf.jpg |
Based
on the vote intakes it was clear that Missingno was getting some help
right from the beginning (think about Bidoof/Vincent in 2007 as an
example of very early rallying). --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
Crono doesn't struggle to beat Yoshi. He almost certainly would have in 2007. At least as best we can tell. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest! |
Missingno's
base may be close to Yoshi, but his peak certainly isn't. Yes, the
change probably was pretty drastic, the votals certainly were.
Crono/Missingno's votals were actually a lot more impressive than
Missingno/Sephiroth by the way (even after adjusting for day/night). By the way, if you're wondering when those 2700 extra rallied votes came in- about 2000 of them came in during the last 2 hours of the match. The evidence that they mostly went to Missingno is that there was a very strong correlation between votals intake above baseline and Missingno's gains all day long. --- 90s games > 00s games |
2007
was the worst year for CT ever, and a very strong year for Nintendo.
And I dunno that he would have struggled with Yoshi even then, depending
on what you mean by struggle. He still got 48.5% on Vincent, and
Vincent beat Zelda 56-44 that year. --- 90s games > 00s games |
He almost certainly would have in 2007. At least as best we can tell. Yoshi isn't touching Vincent. Crono wouldn't have blasted him, but somewhere around 55% was probably doable. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2895 Eh, I don't think Yoshi gets all that close to Crono. Keep in mind that Mega Man didn't look that great in 2007 himself. --- http://img.imgcake.com/nio/26leonpngat.png http://img.imgcake.com/nio/daigohadoupnguj.png |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3265 Then again, the closer Yoshi gets to everybody else, the better...! --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Regardless
of my Crono numbers, I don't see what's so shocking about where I put
Sonic. He probably only gets 55% at best against a non-sprite Ganondorf,
which isn't great considering what Ganon has done in recent years. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest! |
that poll --- peace comes from within |
From: LOLContests | #430 Again, assuming Link/Sonic had no overperformance on Link's part really tanks Sonic's entire division below reasonable levels. You end up with Ganondorf on Ocelot's level, and Liquid Snake finishes 111th in the raw stats. --- http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg |
Your
Sonic number isn't too bad, on reflection. It'd be pretty good for a
number against 2004-2008 Link, just not 2010 Link. Sonic got under 34%
on Cloud back in 2003, so that's worth perhaps 32% on 2004-2008 Link,
and he's almost certainly weaker now, so 30% seems fair. Recent numbers
support that too: 46% on Auron, 54% on Kirby, that's in line with 30%
on 2008 Link. But not against 2010 Link, who's quite a bit below where
he was before. --- 90s games > 00s games |
I have GLaDOS losing to Ness. Someone talk me out of this. I feel like Ness has a much better resume and a decent shot at winning a day match over GLaDOS? Everyone I talk to says this won't even be close in GLaDOS' favor. Is this a terrible pick? --- It is better to be quotable than to be honest. |
2010 Ness defeats 2010 GlaDOS, most people are banking in on Portal 2 for the win. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
Portal 2's likely the biggest part of why GLaDOS will look better this year, but... --> Portal 1's continued to grow here; it's been given away for free twice since CB8, plus it was a pre-order bonus for Portal 2. There's a chance Portal can compete with RE4 in a rematch today. --> GLaDOS will be significantly more recognizable; there are at least four times you see her in-game -- ranging from early to late in the game -- plus there's a period where you see a lot more of GLaDOS than usual. This doesn't count the load-screens or advertising, nor does it consider Portal 2's much longer so you hear more from her this time. Compare this to Portal 1, where you only see her once and her appearance is a mystery for the majority of the short game. --> GLaDOS will not only be more recognizable, but her pictures will better represent her too. She's tough to distinguish in a darker room from Portal 1, but she's become more photogenic and has more photo-ready opportunities in Portal 2. GlaDOS hasn't been particularly strong before, but I believe she's been hurt bad by pics and recognition. Portal 2 solves that AND gave her another great game, so I expect good things from Chell/GLaDOS. --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg Nominate E P O N A. |
LOLContests posted... People came up with explanations for why Missingno would not overperform, but nobody, to my recollection, came up with an explanation for why he would underperform. People said Missingno would not gain any in popularity and there would be little rallies or momentum against Yoshi, but I don't recall may people saying that Missingno would become straight out less popular. For the record, I did say that. Sure enough, I was right --- http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg |
The Mana Sword | Posted 10/20/2011 1:46:44 PM | message detail | quote Yeah, it was like 20k more than any other day match for pretty much the entire contest. I know quite a few day matches got over 80,000 votes. Snake/Sephiroth was only about 4,500 votes behind Crono/Missingno. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Snake/Sephiroth
was hyped for weeks as the match of the contest, features two great
vote draws, and was near the end of the contest. --- 90s games > 00s games |
From: LeonhartFour | #429 Nathan Drake getting doubled+ by CATS Truly a glorious poll. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
red sox 777 | Posted 10/20/2011 2:22:28 PM | message detail | quote Extended out to 24 hours, Crono/Missingno was on pace for around 150k votes, levels we haven't seen for a long time. That estimate is too high. These were the average votals for that contest: Night matches - 52,590 Day matches - 73,248 There's a ratio of 1.39 between night matches and day matches. This means that you could take any night match and multiply it by 1.39 to get a rough estimate of how many votes it would get in a day match. Similarly, you could take any day match and divide by 1.39 to get a rough estimate of how many votes it would get a night match. Examples: Crono/Missingno - 91,081 / 1.39 = 65,526 (in a night match) Sephiroth/Missingno - 66,731 * 1.39 = 92,756 (in a day match) Sephiroth/Missingno actually beats out Crono/Missingno for the higher votal in the contest if you consider each match in terms of day match votals. But you could even take that one step farther and estimate 24 hour votals if you know how many votes it had after the first 12 hours. Back then, we usually had about 52% of the total votes after the first 12 hours if the match was on a weekday with a normal ASV. On the weekend or any day without an ASV, we usually have about 54% of the total votes after the first 12 hours. Crono/Missingno was on a weekend, so the 65,526 estimate for a night match would translate to 121,345 votes in a 24 hour match. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Lopen posted... From: LeonhartFour | #429 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3265 Nathan Drake getting doubled+ by CATS Truly a glorious poll. http://www.abload.de/img/uncharted3riflequxo.gif --- peace comes from within |
Hmm.
So there were a lot of people voting in both day and night matches
then. Though I'm not sure I agree wtih the analysis for Crono/Missingno
still, because I doubt it would only have gotten 30k if it had run
another 12 hours. Don't think it would have fallen to 1/3 of the vote
intake for the previous 12 hours. You could flip the argument around
and say that since the day part of the match is worth 46% of the total
24-hour total, Crono/Missingno was in fact on pace for around 200k. Though that would obviously be wrong, and a lot more wrong than 121k, but I'm not sure that basing everything on the night projection works perfectly either, especially in a heavily bandwagoned, rallied, match. I'll amend my estimate to 130k in light of your information, which is still very high (and 120k is too, for that matter, for that contest). --- 90s games > 00s games |
From: ZFS | #442 Laughed way too hard at this. Well played. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
aw yeah --- peace comes from within |
red sox 777 | Posted 10/20/2011 5:53:29 PM | message detail | quote Hmm. So there were a lot of people voting in both day and night matches then. Though I'm not sure I agree wtih the analysis for Crono/Missingno still, because I doubt it would only have gotten 30k if it had run another 12 hours. About a year ago, we had a poll run for 40 hours because the poll didn't close at 12:00 AM like it should have and Bacon didn't notice until about 4:00 PM on the second day of the poll. The 40 hour poll had 66,264 votes after 24 hours and 77,196 after the 12 hour mark on the second day. So that's 10,932 votes during the first 12 hours on the second day. The poll closed at 81,891 votes. Crono/Missingno obviously has much higher votals than the 40 hour poll from last year, so it should be able to pull off 30,000 votes with an extra 12 hours. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
From: KamikazePotato | #331 You're aware this wrecks your whole Phoenix > Gordon pick, right? >_____________> --- "Final Fantasy XI is a bad game that no one should care about for any reason." -FFDragon |
From: HaRRicH | #436 Let's not get carried away. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
I'm
going away early tomorrow and return sunday night so can someone bump
the BOP topic at least once in about 24 hours to prevent the purge
monster? Thanks. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
LeonhartFour posted... From: HaRRicH | #436 There's a chance Portal can compete with RE4 in a rematch today. Let's not get carried away. It was a 55-45 match beforehand, Portal's had plenty of free copies given away since then, Portal 2's arguably still our GotY, and we've seen ME make a much bigger jump this generation because of a sequel than what Portal would need. Though I'd still take RE4, Portal has reasons to be considered in a rematch. --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg Nominate E P O N A. |
