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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1007

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#201 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 10/15/2011 9:41:28 AM | message detail
Cloud/Sephiroth vs Squall/Seifer would be another nasty SFF blowout match. I mean, look at this:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/%281%29Cloud_Strife_vs_%284%29Squall_Leonhart_2004

Considering that the disparity in strength between Sephiroth and Seifer is much larger than the gap between Cloud and Squall, one would fathom how dreaded this match would be.

Do the right choice, vote for The Bosses and The Twin Snakes, lol.
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#202 | red sox 777 | Posted 10/15/2011 10:27:29 AM | message detail
A doubling is possible; the rivalry aspect of the contest may amplify the SFF. It's a real shame because Samus > Mario indirectly.
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#203 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/15/2011 12:48:37 PM | message detail
Iamthekuzalol | Posted 10/15/2011 12:41:28 PM | message detail | quote
Cloud/Sephiroth vs Squall/Seifer would be another nasty SFF blowout match. I mean, look at this:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/%281%29Cloud_Strife_vs_%284%29Squall_Leonhart_2004

Considering that the disparity in strength between Sephiroth and Seifer is much larger than the gap between Cloud and Squall, one would fathom how dreaded this match would be.


A Cloud/Squall rematch won't be as big of a blowout compared to 2004. Squall could very well do up to 10% better against Cloud compared to their 2004 match. I mean, look at this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3822

That happened before Sephiroth became a magnet for anti-votes after defeating Missingno. I know it's Vincent instead of Squall, but both of them are nearly equal. Sephiroth is just barely under 63% there and Cloud probably gets about 67-69% against Vincent.
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#204 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/15/2011 1:07:05 PM | message detail
SFF isn't as simple where you can use two different characters and make an assumption about a match.

In 2008 Squall got about 27% on Cloud with Sora and Mewtwo in the poll.
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#205 | Haste_2 | Posted 10/15/2011 1:08:03 PM | message detail
is a doubling outside of Mario/Bowser's reach here? That'd be a big loss for being that late in the contest, SFF or not.

We saw Legend of Zelda get almost 74% on Metal Gear in the series contest (and it's not even an SFF match), and we also saw Zelda manage nearly 85% on Metroid. I figure Mario would have broken 80% on it.

Plus, considering Samus/Ridley as a pairing is kind of....eh.... I think Mario/Bowser could easily score a doubling. Samus/Ridley vs. Ryu/Ken should be closer.
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#206 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/15/2011 1:14:56 PM | message detail
SFF isn't as simple where you can use two different characters and make an assumption about a match.

In 2008 Squall got about 27% on Cloud with Sora and Mewtwo in the poll.


Cloud probably SFFs Squall harder than Sephiroth could, so maybe Cloud still gets over 70% in another rematch against Squall.
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#207 | HaRRicH | Posted 10/15/2011 1:45:49 PM | message detail
Squall probably still gets ~27% on Cloud, but their rematch here should see that percentage go even lower. Sephiroth would beat Seifer worse than that and Cloud/Sephiroth as a rivalry is significantly more iconic.

What's Seifer's role in KH2 like? I don't know if Squall/Seifer's feud is strictly limited to FF8 or if it crosses into the KH-series too.
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#208 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/15/2011 2:27:23 PM | message detail
Seifer never meets Squall in KH2. That role isn't going to do him any favors anyway. Most people don't seem to like it.

But Bacon needs to do a better job with Squall's bracket positioning in these contests. How many times does he need to face Cloud and Sora anyway?

I wanted to see how Squall/Seifer would fare against one of the big rivalries. I mean, even if they get killed by Samus/Ridley, I'd rather see how they'd do than to get SFF'd by Cloud/Sephiroth.
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#209 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/15/2011 5:08:30 PM | message detail
You know, part of me wonders if we're not going to see Series Contest level blowouts from our top contenders in this contest.

Like, is anybody going to be shocked if Mario/Bowser push 90% on Jim/Queen?
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#210 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/15/2011 5:23:31 PM | message detail
We didn't really see anything close to a 90% blowout in the last Character Battle, due to the vote-ins weeding out the bad fodder. At least a 90% blowout was almost possible in GOTD when Melee got just over 87%. Vote-ins for GOTD had a lot more fodder in them, thanks to the limited scope of what games were allowed in. 1990-1999 overall is a lot stronger than 2000-2009 and has several games that would beat any game in the GOTD bracket.

There's probably more fodder in this upcoming contest because it will feature many new characters that have never been in a previous contest. 85% is probably going to be possible, not sure about 90% though.
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#211 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/15/2011 5:35:47 PM | message detail
This is where "SBA likes SFF matches too much" gets brought up, isn't it? >.>
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#212 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/15/2011 5:43:04 PM | message detail
Well, the point is that this style of contest is different, and I think the universally recognized and respected rivalries could benefit from it.
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#213 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/15/2011 5:44:27 PM | message detail
I don't think Bacon is to blame for all of the SFF matches. He has better things to do instead of learning about all of the terminology that we've invented over the years. Also, Nintendo and Square are the two biggest companies on this site and make up a good majority of the contest entrants in any bracket. It's hard to avoid SFF when you have so much Nintendo and Square entrants in a bracket.
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#214 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/15/2011 6:58:26 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
I don't think Bacon is to blame for all of the SFF matches. He has better things to do instead of learning about all of the terminology that we've invented over the years. Also, Nintendo and Square are the two biggest companies on this site and make up a good majority of the contest entrants in any bracket. It's hard to avoid SFF when you have so much Nintendo and Square entrants in a bracket.

Not caring about SFF is one thing, repeating the same matches over and over again is a different thing.

Instead of feeding near elites like Squall and X to Cloud and Mario, throw them up against Sonic or Crono or something.
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#215 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/15/2011 7:32:22 PM | message detail | (edited)
I just finished reading through all of the Summer 2002 Contest PCAs and...man, to think we've come down to this rivalries business kinda stings. I completely forgot about how the recent GF contests have progressed compared to Summer 2002.

And yes, I will be rereading every PCA in honor of the upcoming contest, which is something I may do again in the future, perhaps multiple times.

You guys think we should make games contests more regular than character ones?

Also I just noticed that the characters who lost to Samus in 2002 suffered from similarly egregious hiatuses: both the Street Fighter and Sonic franchises never received another core entry until the Dreamcast, meaning that both of those series also effectively sat out during the "all-important" 5th console generation. You could argue that they at least still received games, but Samus received her main source of contest strength (SSB series) in that timeframe while no one gives a darn about anything from Sonic or SF in comparison.

Also, perhaps it's possible that Samus was overperforming in 2002 due to Metroid Prime hype?
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#216 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 10/15/2011 7:45:32 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Instead of feeding near elites like Squall and X to Cloud and Mario, throw them up against Sonic or Crono or something.

Squall/Seifer vs Crono/Lavos woulda been a great round 1 match. I have no idea who to pick there.
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#217 | Greyfeld | Posted 10/15/2011 7:49:17 PM | message detail
What do you guys think are the chances of Ryu/Ken upsetting Samus/Ridley?
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#218 | Lopen | Posted 10/15/2011 7:52:11 PM | message detail
I'm taking it, should I ever make a bracket. I think Samus/Ridley is going to be surprisingly weak along with Link/Ganondorf (relative to expectations, of course). Also think Ryu/Ken is going to gain the most out of the format of any team.
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#219 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/15/2011 7:53:32 PM | message detail
Very very small. Samus >> Ryu and Ridley >= Ken. Even factoring in 'BUT RIVALRIES', that's a really, really hard sell. Red/Blue > Ryu/Ken is far more likely than Ryu/Ken > Samus/Ridley, and I say that as someone who really wants to take Cecil/Golbez past Red/Blue.
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#220 | Lopen | Posted 10/15/2011 7:54:15 PM | message detail
I wouldn't take Ridley > Ken in a million years.
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#221 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 10/15/2011 7:55:09 PM | message detail
I don't buy the rivalry factor being that important, so I don't think that Ryu/Ken have a chance at beating Samus. If I'm wrong, and rivalries actually do impact the vote to a significant degree, then it may be a match to watch out for.
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#222 | Greyfeld | Posted 10/15/2011 7:57:34 PM | message detail
Well, the way I see it, either this is going to be Character Battle 2k11, or the great rivalries are going to totally ruin a ton of brackets. Instead of walking down the middle, I think I'm going to bank on rivalries meaning something.
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#223 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/15/2011 8:06:59 PM | message detail
Lopen, Ridley/Ken wouldn't be debatable if Sonic hadn't been fed to Link and Ganondorf hadn't been bacon against Sonic! Then you'd see that RidleyFAQS > SHORYUFAQS!
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#224 | Greyfeld | Posted 10/15/2011 8:07:38 PM | message detail
Decided to go back and make some changes to my bracket under the assumption that the whole rivalry thing is going to play a large factor in the contest.

I have Samus/Ridley losing to Big Boss/The Boss in the division finals, Ryu/Ken going up to the semis, and I took Dante/Vergil to the division finals instead of Sora/Riku.

Not a lot of changes, but if I end up being right, it could make the difference in quite a few points.
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#225 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/15/2011 9:09:50 PM | message detail
XFD, second poll in a row that failed to close at 12:00 AM. Third time it's happened this month.
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#226 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/15/2011 11:28:52 PM | message detail
FateStayAlbion posted...
I don't buy the rivalry factor being that important, so I don't think that Ryu/Ken have a chance at beating Samus. If I'm wrong, and rivalries actually do impact the vote to a significant degree, then it may be a match to watch out for.

Keep in mind that Samus vs. Ridley is actually a pretty good rivalry, as opposed to something like Link vs. Ganondorf.

Heck, in most Zelda games, Ganondorf is little more than the final boss. Ridley has never been reduced down to that role, and yet is still considered the main antagonist of the series because of his "link" to Samus and how he seems so ubiquitous.
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#227 | swirIdude | Posted 10/15/2011 11:50:06 PM | message detail
Let's not forget he has a badass theme song.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLLjibR_c4Q
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#228 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/15/2011 11:58:44 PM | message detail
Street Fighter has a pretty decent shot at beating Samus, I think. I'm considering taking it.
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#229 | Greyfeld | Posted 10/16/2011 12:17:45 AM | message detail
Yeah, I decided to pull the trigger on street fighter over samus. Ryu/Ken has just been so iconic, and relevant, for so many years that I could see them pulling it off if we get a run of Smart Voter FAQs.
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#230 | Emporer_Kazbar | Posted 10/16/2011 12:20:26 AM | message detail
I'm sticking with Samus/Ridley > Ryu/Ken for now, but honestly, matches like that are making me a little glad the contest is starting so late after its bracket reveal. There are a few matches (Like this one) that I keep flip-flopping on.
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#231 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/16/2011 12:47:13 AM | message detail
Honestly it's a bit hard to get into discussion at this point because I don't want to be here two weeks from now arguing the exact same points and logic. I've already bored myself with arguing Phoenix vs. Gordon, and that's probably the best match of the first two rounds. Don't want to do that with whatever other debated ones we've got sitting around.
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#232 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/16/2011 2:21:15 AM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
Street Fighter has a pretty decent shot at beating Samus, I think. I'm considering taking it.

I somehow think fighting game rivalries will bomb this contest, although I took Ryu > Red in the divisional finals.

Then again it has been over six years since I last played a non-Smash fighting game (and that was Soulcalibur II), so I wouldn't know how much a fighting game "rivalry" would be worth.

But yeah, Samus vs. Ridley is actually a good deal more of a rivalry than something like Link vs. Ganondorf or Gordon Freeman vs. Dr. Breen, so I'm banking on voters recognizing that.
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#233 | ZFS | Posted 10/16/2011 2:32:04 AM | message detail
I went Ryu/Ken over Samus/Ridley from the day 1. It's not the most likely thing to happen, but I agree that Ryu/Ken will benefit the most from the format. There's bias to factor in, too, but I think it's one of the best late-contest upsets to take. It wouldn't surprise me to see it happen, if voters put more emphasis on the rivalry aspect. Ryu/Ken is just classic; Samus/Ridley can't begin to compare there.
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#234 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/16/2011 2:42:51 AM | message detail
Right now the only real reason I see behind Ryu and Ken being much of a rivalry is that they were the original two Street Fighters.

But I know next to nothing about Street Fighter so there. Perhaps I will consider purchasing SSFIV if Ryu upsets Samus.
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#235 | Lopen | Posted 10/16/2011 3:41:04 AM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #234
Right now the only real reason I see behind Ryu and Ken being much of a rivalry is that they were the original two Street Fighters.

But I know next to nothing about Street Fighter so there.


vintage lms post
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#236 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/16/2011 3:58:21 AM | message detail
The simple fact that LMS has Samus/DRAGON > Ryu/Ken makes me regret my pick.
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#237 | shane15 | Posted 10/16/2011 5:01:21 AM | message detail
So what exactly is the safe pick with this headache inducing foursome? Or should i say who is the most likely to get fed to Mario and Bowser?

Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Blue
Ryu vs. Ken
Samus vs. Ridley
Big Boss vs. The Boss
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#238 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/16/2011 5:41:48 AM | message detail
I went with Samus/Ridley > Ryu/Ken. It just feels right.
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#239 | Greyfeld | Posted 10/16/2011 9:40:44 AM | message detail
What about Bosses > Samus?
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#240 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/16/2011 11:25:00 AM | message detail
Ryu/Ken have a great shot at Samus/Ridley.

...If they actually get there dun dun dunnnnnnnnnn!
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#241 | KamikazePotato | Posted 10/16/2011 12:59:59 PM | message detail | (edited)
We've talked about this before, but it might bear repeating considering how the numbers have changed.

Youtube Views for Ultimate MVC3 Character Reveal Trailers:

Nova: 119,385
Nemesis: 100,874
Dr. Strange: 64,423
Ghost Rider: 64,136
Vergil: 63,667
Hawkeye: 63,646
Iron Fist: 42,414
Strider: 36,665 views
Firebrand: 35,794
Total: 591,004

Phoenix Wright: 589,243

It takes 9 character trailers to barely edge out the lawyer, and Nova's numbers are heavily inflated due to him being released on the same day as Wright. That's not really a number you can just ignore as a possible factor. With all the different media Phoenix Wright is now available on (DS, Wii, iPhone), something like that could easily nudge people into playing the series. And even if it doesn't, they still know about him now and have seen him in a fighting game trailer.
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#242 | pjbasis | Posted 10/16/2011 1:02:11 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #240
Ryu/Ken have a great shot at Samus/Ridley.

...If they actually get there dun dun dunnnnnnnnnn!




ffff I realized I also have Red/Blue > Samus/Ridley

Why am I doing that and why am I not changing it? This feels like GSC in GotD all over again.
#243 | ZFS | Posted 10/16/2011 1:04:49 PM | message detail
If we're talking about exposure, then that trailer does a good job. If we're talking about hype for Phoenix Wright...well, I don't know that it'll still be there come match time. Maybe if UMVC3 is close to coming out, but I don't get the sense it's too hyped on GameFAQs like it was when MVC3 came out. I have Phoenix winning over Freeman, though.
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#244 | KamikazePotato | Posted 10/16/2011 1:10:24 PM | message detail | (edited)
People in general definitely aren't as hyped about UMVC3 as MVC3, but I'm pretty sure no character trailer in the original got anywhere near as much notice as this one did. From what I've seen, there's a bit of feedback loop going on; Wright hypes UMVC3, UMVC3 hypes Wright, ect. There's a reason Nova's trailer already has the 2nd-most views - I think PW is helping people get excited about UMVC3 again.

As for whether the hype stays, I believe the game releases 3 days after Phoenix's match, which is very good timing in terms of excitement and hype. Would still be better if the match was run tomorrow (or better yet, yesterday), but hey, exposure is exposure.
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#245 | pjbasis | Posted 10/16/2011 1:10:05 PM | message detail
Those numbers could also just indicate Pheonix Wright fans care about his UMvC3 appearance than anyone else.
#246 | KamikazePotato | Posted 10/16/2011 1:11:42 PM | message detail
Oh, they do, but when your trailer numbers are equal to every other characters' trailer numbers combined then you've already gone way past the point where it's just fans inflating things.
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#247 | shane15 | Posted 10/16/2011 4:17:56 PM | message detail
After what happened to GSC last contest i don't even like Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Blue>Ryu/Ken
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#248 | Greyfeld | Posted 10/16/2011 4:28:14 PM | message detail
shane15 posted...
After what happened to GSC last contest i don't even like Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Blue>Ryu/Ken

I don't know when people are going to start understanding that RBY >>> every other generation, on this website.

That said, I don't think Red/Blue are going to get past Ryu/Ken either, but for a completely different reason.
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#249 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 10/16/2011 5:17:17 PM | message detail
Would people have called GSC a flop if it had gotten 44% on Melee, Brawl, or FFX? I doubt it, but it got 44% on a game about equal to those. Did anyone think GSC had a serious shot to win Game of the Decade? If not, it seems to me Majora's Mask is still being wildly underestimating despite winning the friggin contest.
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#250 | red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2011 5:22:28 PM | message detail
Would people have called GSC a flop if it had gotten 44% on Melee, Brawl, or FFX? I doubt it, but it got 44% on a game about equal to those. Did anyone think GSC had a serious shot to win Game of the Decade? If not, it seems to me Majora's Mask is still being wildly underestimating despite winning the friggin contest.

Actually, yes, most people thought GSC was worth more than 44% on those 3 games. It got 42% heads up against RBY, and people mostly thought RBY would beat those 3 by more than 52/48.
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