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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1007

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#101 | pjbasis | Posted 10/13/2011 1:09:33 PM | message detail
I hope you're not getting hung up on the use of "anyone."

You already like PW anyway!

Besides, I doubt MvC3's ability to boost people in any great amount anyway.
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#102 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/13/2011 1:12:58 PM | message detail
The point is that the game doesn't need to be out for Phoenix to get any benefit out of being in the game. We remember the Brawl hype boost before the game came out, and then the Brawl deboost after the game came out? And we've already seen the difference between Lightning before FFXIII and after.

I'm not suggesting it'll be a boost of that level, but it doesn't need to be. I would imagine there are a decent number of voters who don't really care about this match one way or the other, and a cool trailer could be enough to swing them in Phoenix's favor. It doesn't have to be much.
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#103 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 10/13/2011 1:15:24 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
The point is that the game doesn't need to be out for Phoenix to get any benefit out of being in the game. We remember the Brawl hype boost before the game came out, and then the Brawl deboost after the game came out? And we've already seen the difference between Lightning before FFXIII and after.

Are you seriously comparing an expansion pack for a game that was considered a disappointment to Brawl and Final Fantasy XIII?
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#104 | pjbasis | Posted 10/13/2011 1:16:51 PM | message detail
Lightning was in a match after FFXIII came out?
#105 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/13/2011 1:17:11 PM | message detail
If you'd read the rest of the post instead of focusing on that one aspect, I already said it doesn't have to be anywhere near that level for Phoenix to win, and I'm not expecting it to be.

Again, the point is "The game doesn't have to be out yet for Phoenix to benefit from it."
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#106 | KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2011 1:17:45 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Lightning was in a match after FFXIII came out?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4480
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#107 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/13/2011 1:17:55 PM | message detail

From: pjbasis | #104
Lightning was in a match after FFXIII came out?


Not really a match, per se...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4480
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#108 | pjbasis | Posted 10/13/2011 1:19:29 PM | message detail
Oh, lol.

That just happened!
#109 | red sox 777 | Posted 10/13/2011 1:52:31 PM | message detail
Leon is right, the more unknown a character is, the less it takes to boost him. Some small expansion could make Phoenix 55/45 his former self, while SS being as big as OOT would very possibly fail to pull that off for Link.
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#110 | red sox 777 | Posted 10/13/2011 1:58:03 PM | message detail
I'm taking Gordon though; the strength gap is decently big and I don't think Breen is such a bad rival.
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#111 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/13/2011 1:59:47 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #110
I don't think Breen is such a bad rival.


People who've actually played HL don't really seem to think he's a good rival, so I'm not sure what you're going on because I'm fairly certain you haven't played it.

And the strength gap won't be that big in a night match.
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#112 | red sox 777 | Posted 10/13/2011 2:06:36 PM | message detail
I mean that he's not an outright bad rival; there's no hate directed at him. IIRC Gordon was already up to 56% or so by noon last time, so while the night match definitely helps Phoenix, there's still a good gap there- especially if Gordon is stronger now than in 2006. The massively lower votals increase the possibility of an upset a lot though.
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#113 | pjbasis | Posted 10/13/2011 2:09:53 PM | message detail
I just realized...Serge vs. Lynx didn't even make vote-ins!?
#114 | foxhead84 | Posted 10/13/2011 2:20:30 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
I just realized...Serge vs. Lynx didn't even make vote-ins!?

Yeah, Serge/Lynx and Tifa/Aeris should have been there (with Mario/Sonic... but that's a whole other story!!!)
#115 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 10/13/2011 2:23:43 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2885

More like it's a shame that Isaac/Felix didn't even make the vote-ins!
...Or Felix/Isaac! Whichever.
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#116 | HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2011 2:27:44 PM | message detail
I don't understand the disdain for Dr. Breen unless people are mad you don't fight him. He's not a particularly great rival to Gordon, but he's a great character that embodies the oppressive atmosphere of HL2 from start to finish. Also, again, he did well at GameSpot's villain-contest: he beat Team Rocket and Wario with ~55% each.

It's one thing if you believe he's not doing Gordon Freeman any favors, but it's unlikely he's as pathetic here as some insinuations suggest. I think a lot of that's been just because the board really wants to support Phoenix/Edgeworth again -- they can't say much about Gordon since he broke his curse on Phoenix, but Dr. Breen's an easier target. That's not to say the match can't go either way, but it's always hard to trust the board on gauging the strength of anything related to Phoenix; he was once on our board-wiki's logo, afterall.


Side-note: do you think the G-Man would have fit the rival-definition enough to count? If so, I bet that would have made for a stronger rivalry with Gordon.
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#117 | KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2011 2:31:40 PM | message detail
Dr. Breen is a great character? He barely even exists during the game.
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#118 | KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2011 2:32:33 PM | message detail
And non-Gordon HL characters are an easy target because this happened.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2514

Alyx would kill Breen in a poll.
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#119 | HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2011 2:48:56 PM | message detail
I'd like to see Alyx in another contest now that the Orange Box came out. She won't win a rematch, but she could do a lot better against Lara now.

Dr. Breen isn't seen much -- especially in person -- but his presence is felt through-out the game. His contribution to the atmosphere of the game is why I credit him; he's got some great monologues that set the mood for the world you're saving.
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#120 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/13/2011 3:11:05 PM | message detail
You really think the Orange Box makes her that much stronger? I doubt it. It hasn't notably increased Freeman's profile by that much.

From: HaRRicH | #116
Also, again, he did well at GameSpot's villain-contest: he beat Team Rocket and Wario with ~55% each.


That's not very relevant because of extenuating circumstances.

For one, Ocelot was destroying Team Rocket before rallying pushed them to victory.
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#121 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/13/2011 3:14:54 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #120
You really think the Orange Box makes her that much stronger? I doubt it. It hasn't notably increased Freeman's profile by that much.


Alyx is much weaker and thus has more room for improvement. Also, that match occurs before the release of HL2 Episode 2, which was one of three new games in The Orange Box and featured Alyx in a very powerful and awesome role.
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#122 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/13/2011 3:16:34 PM | message detail
Well, I understand all that.

But is there much reason to believe that Breen himself isn't Edgeworth level?
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#123 | HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2011 3:18:10 PM | message detail
Revolver was believed to be a strong competitor that contest anyway, so that's not such a bad thing. It actually says a lot for him if Team Rocket = Wario, and MGS has done well there before; Psycho Mantis did pretty well, Otacon made the Final Four in their recent sidekick-contest, and Solid Snake still might be the strongest character there (though we were robbed of Snake/Link).
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#124 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/13/2011 3:19:21 PM | message detail
Well, the point is that what happens on GameSpot's contests means pretty much jack squat for us.
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#125 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/13/2011 3:21:30 PM | message detail
I doubt Breen is stronger (can't imagine him avoiding Naked Snake's tripling). Breen, unlike Alyx, is barely mentioned in Episode 1 and Episode 2. He hasn't gotten any meaningful new exposure since HL2.
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#126 | KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2011 9:09:56 PM | message detail
Thought you guys might find this interesting.

Views for Phoenix Wright reveal trailer, uploaded today: 41,210
Views for Nova reveal trailer, uploaded today: 15,755 views
Views Nemesis reveal trailer, uploaded August 16th (2 months ago): 96,279

This is probably the closest a non-Smash game is going to get to create true character hype. I showed the trailer to some people I know earlier today and they all loved it. His style is adored by casuals and his moveset is making hardcore fighting game fans take notice. When you realize that Wrighto hasn't starred in a game in four years (and yeah, he isn't the main character of UMVC3, but after today he's definitely the star). Conversely, what's Gordon had recently? I love the guy, but Half-Life 3 is just nowhere to be found.
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#127 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/13/2011 9:16:01 PM | message detail
One thing being on board 8 has taught me is that Phoenix Wright fans are pretty loyal and cultish.
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352
#128 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/13/2011 9:18:15 PM | message detail
And that can only help him.

But you're kidding yourself if you think only PW fans are watching that trailer.
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#129 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/13/2011 9:20:10 PM | message detail
I'm just saying you shouldn't be surprised that PW fans are inflating the views.
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#130 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/13/2011 9:22:17 PM | message detail
Feel free to downplay the significance of it if you want, but that trailer is going to get more than enough views from "outsiders" to swing the match in Phoenix's favor at the rate it's going.

There are plenty of outsiders making comments about these trailers.
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#131 | KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2011 9:23:08 PM | message detail
Actually, this might be worth more than views.

Phoenix Wright Trailer: 3,189 likes, 166 dislikes
Nova Trailer: 272 likes, 10 dislikes
Nemesis Trailer: 364 likes, 13 dislikes

You want a definite measurement of hype? There it is.
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#132 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 10/13/2011 9:24:37 PM | message detail
#133 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/13/2011 9:26:12 PM | message detail
In the span of a few hours for something like this?

Yes, because it's going to end up getting a lot more than that.
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#134 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 10/13/2011 9:29:31 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
In the span of a few hours for something like this?

Yes, because it's going to end up getting a lot more than that.


14 hours, actually. Most video games of note can hit 40k for trailers within half a day
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#135 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/13/2011 9:30:21 PM | message detail
Except you've already claimed this isn't a video game of note and Phoenix Wright isn't a video game character of note that people who don't already know the games will care is in the game.

So make up your mind.
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#136 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/13/2011 9:31:10 PM | message detail | (edited)
Can I just say that on both sides of the Freeman/Wright match arguments there are incredible amounts of bias.

(so it's not worth arguing about this much jeez)
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#137 | KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2011 9:31:17 PM | message detail
*posts youtube views and Likes that potentially indicate interest in a character*

'Bias'
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#138 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/13/2011 9:31:32 PM | message detail | (edited)

From: Justin_Crossing | #136
Can I just say that on both sides of the Freeman/Wright match arguments there are incredible amounts of bias.


I don't deny bias on my part.

I don't even deny Gordon should be the favorite.

I just think dismissing Phoenix altogether is silly.
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#139 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 10/13/2011 9:32:57 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Except you've already claimed this isn't a video game of note and Phoenix Wright isn't a video game character of note that people who don't already know the games will care is in the game.

So make up your mind.


Saying its hype level isn't near Brawl or FF13s isn't saying that. I mean any game that people actually care about can get hits for its trailers. Its not like MvC3 is some niche jrpg or indie game.
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#140 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/13/2011 9:33:51 PM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #139
Its not like MvC3 is some niche jrpg or indie game.


So why are people trying to dismiss it like it doesn't matter?
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#141 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/13/2011 9:34:18 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #137
*posts youtube views and Likes that potentially indicate interest in a character*

'Bias'


KP don't deny you have PW bias.

Just because the things you are bringing up don't have inherent bias doesn't mean that you don't have it.
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#142 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 10/13/2011 9:37:05 PM | message detail | (edited)
LeonhartFour posted...
From: FateStayAlbion | #139
Its not like MvC3 is some niche jrpg or indie game.
So why are people trying to dismiss it like it doesn't matter?


I do think it can help, I just feel that having people actually playing Phoenix Wright will help his strength more than just seeing him on some trailer. The people who are already PW fans will get excited over the trailer, but they were already Phoenix voters to begin with. I don't see many people watching that trailer and deciding they will vote for Phoenix when they wouldn't have before, since theres no attachment to him unlike if you actually used him in the game.
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#143 | KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2011 9:36:16 PM | message detail
That's stupid. I like Phoenix/Edgeworth, so that makes actual raw data I post biased?
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#144 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 10/13/2011 9:36:31 PM | message detail
I mean any game that people actually care about can get hits for its trailers.

Even so, this is a step up for a series which a low playrate like Phoenix Wright.
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#145 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/13/2011 9:37:20 PM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #142
I don't see anyone seeing that trailer and deciding they will vote for Phoenix when they wouldn't have before, since theres no attachment to him unlike if you actually used him in the game.


This literally does not matter, and I don't know why people keep bringing up "Oh nobody who didn't already know him will care."

How many people cared about Ike before the Brawl reveal?
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#146 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/13/2011 9:38:24 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #143
That's stupid. I like Phoenix/Edgeworth, so that makes actual raw data I post biased?


I literally just said the raw data you have does not have bias.

How do you read "does not inherently have bias" as "it has bias"
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#147 | KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2011 9:39:43 PM | message detail
Ah, misread.

In that case I change my post to "Your post has no point as we're discussing raw data".
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#148 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 10/13/2011 9:41:07 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
From: FateStayAlbion | #142
I don't see anyone seeing that trailer and deciding they will vote for Phoenix when they wouldn't have before, since theres no attachment to him unlike if you actually used him in the game.
This literally does not matter, and I don't know why people keep bringing up "Oh nobody who didn't already know him will care."

How many people cared about Ike before the Brawl reveal?


You're comparing the people who play MvC3 to the loyal fanboys that Nintendo has. Plus just look at the match: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2893

Nintendo fan votes had to go somewhere.
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#149 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/13/2011 9:43:43 PM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #148
You're comparing the people who play MvC3 to the loyal fanboys that Nintendo has. Plus just look at the match: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2893

Nintendo fan votes had to go somewhere.


Marth struggled to beat Duke Nukem with Melee and Brawl despite being the only Nintendo character in the match.

So we're really going to resort to "Well, it didn't mean that much because Nintendo fans had to vote for somebody so even random FE character most people know nothing about could've almost won that match big deal."

As well as the "LOL Nintendo fanboys you can't expect everyone to be like that" argument?
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#150 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 10/13/2011 9:45:53 PM | message detail
So we're really going to resort to "Well, it didn't mean that much because Nintendo fans had to vote for somebody so even random FE character most people know nothing about could've almost won that match big deal."

And the sad thing is that even pre-Brawl Ike is stronger than Phoenix
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