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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1007

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#451 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/20/2011 9:01:43 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #450
and we've seen ME make a much bigger jump this generation because of a sequel than what Portal would need.


ME had more room to grow because the original wasn't that popular to begin with. The original Portal was plenty popular already.

And Portal 2 isn't gonna win GOTY in the end anyway and everybody knows that.
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#452 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 10/20/2011 10:57:12 PM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
Portal 2's arguably still our GotY

There is absolutely no way Portal 2 is beating Skrim or Skyward Sword.
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#453 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/20/2011 10:59:02 PM | message detail
I'm assuming he's talking about the games that are already out now, not including the games that have yet to be released.
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#454 | HaRRicH | Posted 10/20/2011 11:42:35 PM | message detail
Yeah, just the Game of the Past Ten Months. Batman: Arkham City is the only serious competition Portal 2 hasn't already beaten.

Notice I already said Portal wouldn't need as big of a jump as what ME got. Previously weaker or not, ME's stock jumped because the sequel was successful. It's hard to then say Portal can't benefit from Portal 2's success when Portal was a pre-order bonus for that sequel. With that and my other previous reasons, Portal could scare or even upset RE4 -- a former GotY-winner.

Portal/Oblivion would be a good match and there's not been any polled comparisons of Portal 2/Skyrim yet, so it's hard to count Portal 2 out so easily considering its reception. I'll hold back on taking that upset though until I see Chell/GLaDOS in action.
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#455 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/21/2011 9:09:34 PM | message detail
Oh hey, a GTA poll.

Could be interesting.
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#456 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/21/2011 9:24:34 PM | message detail
Not bad, 80% playrate for the GTA series. That's a lot better than the Castlevania series.
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#457 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/21/2011 9:41:31 PM | message detail
I thought GTAIII would be the one with the largest playrate since it seems to have been by far the most popular GTA on the site going by GOTD.

So the option that's currently in first place is rather surprising. Then again, it seems that GTAIII has a playrate of ~50%, whatever.

Dunno. Can't think of much to contribute.
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#458 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/21/2011 11:50:43 PM | message detail
Tomorrow's poll will be "Which of the three current consoles do you now own?", which we had earlier this year back in March. When we had that poll in March, it got over 80000 votes. With vote totals sucking even more since then, I project that poll to only get 64438 votes based on the average vote totals around the time we last had this poll.

Average vote totals this month are currently at 48692, which is the first month this year with an average under 50000. Though vote totals should improve next month with a heavy lineup of games.
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#459 | pjbasis | Posted 10/22/2011 1:00:20 AM | message detail
Well now we know have proof playrate =/= contest strength.
#460 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/22/2011 4:20:48 AM | message detail
Oh yeah, UK with 31% still owning the original release (play rate of 64% for the game, and 91% for the series). To put this in context, 17% of UK voters said they'd never played a console Zelda this year.
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#461 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/22/2011 7:00:10 PM | message detail
90% playrate for Europe and 92.5% playrate for the U.K.

Pretty impressive for GTA, and yet it's so weak here.
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#462 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 10/22/2011 8:08:05 PM | message detail
Well now we know have proof playrate =/= contest strength.

I thought Wii Sports took care of that last year. Everyone played it, and everyone knew it didn't belong.
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#463 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/22/2011 8:27:14 PM | message detail
90% playrate for Europe and 92.5% playrate for the U.K.

And only 80% in North America, which of course explains GTA's bad ASV. 84% playrate in Asia and 88.50% in Oceania.
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#464 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/23/2011 10:41:35 AM | message detail
Amazing how close the GameFAQs console race has become. As of right now the 360 has ~55%, the PS3 ~58% and the Wii ~62%. 360 should rise a little from here though.
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#465 | ZFS | Posted 10/23/2011 11:06:14 AM | message detail
ps3 for first
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#466 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/23/2011 11:51:51 AM | message detail
Looks like this poll will definitely break 60000 votes. I was a little worried that it wouldn't break that after there were only 543 votes in the first 5 minutes and just 4979 votes after the first hour. The first hour managed to average 415 votes per update, which is kind of impressive considering the first 5 minutes had just 543 votes. So the vote totals managed to pick up after the poll had bad vote totals at the start.
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#467 | foxhead84 | Posted 10/23/2011 12:29:41 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#468 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/24/2011 10:32:38 AM | message detail
This long prediction period is killing me. It's so hard to stay interested, let alone hyped, about a contest when there's very little new to do with it for almost a month.
#469 | abdou | Posted 10/24/2011 11:30:54 AM | message detail
I agree I was somewhat hyped but this long prediction period (and Skyrim) killed some of my excitement for this contest. Two weeks would have sufficed. .
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#470 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/24/2011 12:05:42 PM | message detail
A long prediction period might be good for the casuals, because there isn't much interest in this contest and they will have more time to fill out a bracket. This should help boost the number of total brackets submitted for this contest, as we should have terrible bracket totals if there was a much shorter prediction period.

-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/22/2011 2:50:43 AM | message detail | quote
Tomorrow's poll will be "Which of the three current consoles do you now own?", which we had earlier this year back in March. When we had that poll in March, it got over 80000 votes. With vote totals sucking even more since then, I project that poll to only get 64438 votes based on the average vote totals around the time we last had this poll.


My projection ends up being off by about 1500 votes. Fairly good projection by me.
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#471 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2011 7:42:37 PM | message detail
I just updated the BOP http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls

Some talked about matches include

Round 1

Donkey Kong/King Rool - 24
Ezio/Rodrigo - 4

Sub-Zero/Scorpion - 23
Leon/Ada Wong - 5

Fox/Wolf - 22
Yuna/Seymour - 6

Big Boss/The Boss - 20
Tidus/Jecht - 8

Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen - 15
Phoenix Wright/Edgeworth - 13

Pac-Man/Blinky - 23
Crash/Neo Cortex - 5

Siegfried/Nightmare - 18
Ramza/Delita - 10

Sora/Riku - 24
William/Adolf Hitler - 4

Round 2

Sonic/Dr. Robotnik - 23
Kirby/Meta Knight - 5

Sub-Zero/Scorpion - 20
Leon/Ada Wong - 4
Donkey Kong/King Rool - 4

Red/Blue - 20
Luigi/Waluigi - 6
Cecil/Golbez - 1
Jim Raynor/Kerrigan - 1

Alucard/Dracula - 22
Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen - 3
Phoenix Wright/Edgeworth - 2
Commander Shepard/Saren - 1

Frog/Magus - 19
Chell/GlaDOS - 9

Sora/Riku - 18
Dante/Vergil - 7
William/Adolf Hitler - 3

Round 3

Ryu/Ken - 19
Red/Blue - 7
Fox/Wolf - 2

Alucard/Dracula - 10
Frog/Magus - 8
Chell/GlaDOS - 6
Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen - 2
Phoenix Wright/Edgeworth - 1
Commander Shepard/Saren - 1

Cloud/Sephiroth - 25
Solid Snake/Liquid Snake - 3

Squall/Seifer - 21
Sora/Riku - 5
William/Adolf Hitler - 1
Dante Vergil - 1

Round 4

Samus/Ridley - 20
Red/Blue - 4
Ryu/Ken - 3
Big Boss/The Boss - 1

Round 5

Link/Ganondorf - 20
Cloud/Sephiroth - 6
Solid Snake/Liquid Snake - 1
Mega Man/Dr. Wily - 1
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352
#472 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 10/24/2011 8:06:22 PM | message detail
Round 2
...
Donkey Kong/King Rool - 4


Huh?
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#473 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2011 8:12:36 PM | message detail
People expecting a Donkey Kong Country Returns boost?
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#474 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/25/2011 1:59:48 AM | message detail
If you're going for a bizarre upset, there are a lot worse ones to go with than Donkey Kong/K. Rool to the third round.
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#475 | AppreciateTrees | Posted 10/25/2011 2:03:08 AM | message detail
Why do so many people have the Bosses over Tidus and Jecht? I'm stuck on that one that.
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#476 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/25/2011 2:08:02 AM | message detail
The Bosses have the strongest character of the four by a healthy margin, and The Boss isn't weak enough to really drag Big Boss down. Not to mention The Bosses is very likely to have 'Solid Snake with an eyepatch' in their pic.
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#477 | AppreciateTrees | Posted 10/25/2011 2:30:09 AM | message detail
The Bosses have the strongest character of the four by a healthy margin

How do you figure Big Boss is so much stronger than Tidus? I don't really see anything that makes it so clear-cut..
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#478 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/25/2011 2:32:46 AM | message detail
Unless you think Samus not only beats Mario, but absolutely smashes him, Big Boss beats Sub-Zero easily, who beat Tidus easily.
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#479 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/25/2011 2:44:47 AM | message detail | (edited)
For reference, in the unadjusted stats from last contest (which are based on a Samus behind no SFF and a Big Boss behind Mario who got SFFed to hell by Link) Tidus is expected to barely edge out Big Boss. So in order for past results to make Big Boss over Tidus not very clear-cut, you need to believe that Mario and Link do not have any fanbase split. If you believe that, I know a Nigerian Prince who needs only 1,000 dollars in order to access his family fortune worth billions. Can you help him out?

Not that Tidus/Jecht have no chance against The Bosses, but if Tidus/Jecht do win, it's not going to be because Tidus or Jecht would threaten Big Boss 1-on-1.
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#480 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/25/2011 6:01:25 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3802
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3834
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3765

You can do the math.

Note: Big Boss did have the benefit of a night match against Mario, so it probably would've been worse in a day match or a 24 hour match, but you're still looking at about a 3% better performance against Mario than Sub-Zero got against Samus.
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#481 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/25/2011 6:54:55 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure Big Boss had his Naked Snake picture against Mario, so he would have overperformed in that match.
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#482 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 10/25/2011 8:22:10 AM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #481
I'm pretty sure Big Boss had his Naked Snake picture against Mario, so he would have overperformed in that match.


And odds are good there will be another Naked Snake pic!
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#483 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/25/2011 8:26:34 AM | message detail
Treeman, until now I have seen you as a terrible poster, but you have redeemed yourself with that sig. Props.
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#484 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 10/25/2011 9:54:38 AM | message detail
Alucard/Dracula - 22
Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen - 3
Phoenix Wright/Edgeworth - 2
Commander Shepard/Saren - 1


I understand that Shepard/Saren is an upset, but only 1 takes them to the third round? I don't think its that much of a longshot...
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#485 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/25/2011 11:14:57 AM | message detail
I agree, in fact I'm shocked that almost no one is taking Shepard/Saren > Alucard/Dracula. This isn't like Squall/Auron.
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#486 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 10/25/2011 11:31:00 AM | message detail
I'm more surprised that Dante v. Sora isn't a coin flip, even if it is a day match. Dante loses twice by 1% to characters who are stronger than Sora and now he's got the unreliable stigma? They haven't fought before but looking through contest histories, Dante's losses are more impressive than Sora's.
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#487 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/25/2011 11:34:16 AM | message detail
IngmarBirdman | Posted 10/25/2011 2:31:00 PM | message detail | quote
I'm more surprised that Dante v. Sora isn't a coin flip, even if it is a day match.


That's not a day match. It's a 24 hour match, because we only have 12 hour matches in round 1 before switching over to 24 hour matches.
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#488 | Greyfeld | Posted 10/25/2011 11:54:16 AM | message detail
IngmarBirdman posted...
I'm more surprised that Dante v. Sora isn't a coin flip, even if it is a day match. Dante loses twice by 1% to characters who are stronger than Sora and now he's got the unreliable stigma? They haven't fought before but looking through contest histories, Dante's losses are more impressive than Sora's.

I'm actually taking Dante > Sora, myself. I know that KH is popular here, but I'm banking on Dante's rivalry being stronger than Sora's.
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#489 | Greyfeld | Posted 10/25/2011 11:57:22 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
I agree, in fact I'm shocked that almost no one is taking Shepard/Saren > Alucard/Dracula. This isn't like Squall/Auron.

Even though the x-stats show Alucard and Shepard pretty close to each other, I can't help but feel that this is one of those "close, but never in contention" matches. I think Dracula is going to do more for Alucard than Saren does for Shepard, and I'm pretty sure that Alucard has stronger rallying power than Shepard does.
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#490 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/25/2011 3:42:09 PM | message detail
I wouldn't take Shepard one-on-one but is his game bigger than SOTN at this point?
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#491 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 10/25/2011 4:03:03 PM | message detail
I'd take Shepard like 53-54% over Alucard in a day match. To me it comes down to how much of an impact Dracula makes.. and I doubt many people who aren't already Alucard fans are going to be voting for Dracula.
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#492 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/25/2011 4:04:29 PM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #491
I'd take Shepard like 53-54% over Alucard in a day match. To me it comes down to how much of an impact Dracula makes.. and I doubt many people who aren't already Alucard fans are going to be voting for Dracula.


Yeah but Dracula doesn't need the Castlevania context to have name recognition/respect.

People who don't know who Alucard is will certianly have heard of the name Dracula.
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#493 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/25/2011 4:20:54 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #481
I'm pretty sure Big Boss had his Naked Snake picture against Mario, so he would have overperformed in that match.


He didn't. He got a Peace Walker pic.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/cb8-073.jpg

He didn't look like Solid Snake in that picture.
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#494 | Ngamer64 | Posted 10/25/2011 4:28:35 PM | message detail
New Show has just hit the airwaves!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60771860

In this one yoblazer and Alec go in-depth on all the new bracket's most debated Round One matches. We also get in some tiebreaker talk and SB bashing (over bracket placement). It's pretty great!

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#495 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/25/2011 4:40:55 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/25/2011 7:20:54 PM | message detail | quote
He didn't. He got a Peace Walker pic.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/cb8-073.jpg

He didn't look like Solid Snake in that picture.


Thank you for confirming this for me. I originally thought he had Naked Snake in that match, but I guess I was wrong after all.
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#496 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/25/2011 4:42:22 PM | message detail
Someone wanna go ahead and make the next topic?
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#497 | The Mana Sword | Posted 10/25/2011 4:43:54 PM | message detail
Nope.
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#498 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/25/2011 4:48:23 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #485
I agree, in fact I'm shocked that almost no one is taking Shepard/Saren > Alucard/Dracula. This isn't like Squall/Auron.


Shep will win that division.
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#499 | Shadow Doom Blaze | Posted 10/25/2011 4:48:40 PM | message detail
Truly.
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#500 | Shadow Doom Blaze | Posted 10/25/2011 4:48:50 PM | message detail
Play EarthBound.
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