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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1007

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#1 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/11/2011 12:17:18 PM | message detail
3 more weeks!



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2011 12:18:14 PM | message detail
Three long weeks.
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#3 | XxSoulxX | Posted 10/11/2011 1:19:37 PM | message detail
tag
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Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever
Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename
#4 | MoreSwagThanU | Posted 10/11/2011 1:20:36 PM | message detail
this contest sucks!
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sess
#5 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/11/2011 1:32:28 PM | message detail
I thought so too until the bracket actually came out!

It's honestly not half bad.
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#6 | FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/11/2011 1:56:09 PM | message detail
Nice to see there's finally another contest. What was the layoff between the last one? Years?
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#7 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/11/2011 1:59:24 PM | message detail
Last contest ended up December 23rd (the final match, not the bonus match) and this contest was announced on September 23rd. So a 9 month difference there. And we won't even get our first match until November 2nd.
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#8 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/11/2011 2:35:13 PM | message detail
I think the bracket could've been a lot better with a few changes:

Set Cloud/Seph on Mario/Bowser's section, so there's less likely to be an SFF final, and more likely to be a great match between the top teams.
Set X/Zero where they get a crack at Samus/Ridley or Seifer/Squall once out of their division instead of Mario/Bowser, so they're not wasted.
Swap Crono/Lavos with Raiden/Vamp, since Raiden/Vamp is wasted anyway and Crono/Lavos would bring even more chaos to the SW division.
Set the Snakes so they go up against Mario/Bowser or Samus/Ridley instead of Cloud/Seph in their division final, so Snake has to deal with elite Nintendo.
Swap Sora/Riku with Tidus/Jecht (unsure about this one, perhaps loses as much as it gains).

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's awful - it just wastes significant potential.
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#9 | KingButz | Posted 10/11/2011 2:47:01 PM | message detail
tag
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#10 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/11/2011 3:18:26 PM | message detail
Well, I pulled the trigger on Luigi/Waluigi > Trainers, as well as Aludrac > Shepard/Saren. Feeling good about the former, but I just know the latter's gonna bite me in the ass later on. >____>
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#11 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/11/2011 4:49:48 PM | message detail
I have Shep/Saren in that division and I'm sticking with it. It's the ultimate "go fanboy and don't look back" division if I ever saw it.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Mitch Stuekerjuergen :(
#12 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2011 4:51:55 PM | message detail
Too bad I don't have a pairing I can go fanboy on and never look back on, other than Phoenix/Edgey for one match!
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#13 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/11/2011 4:52:08 PM | message detail
I can't really call out any fanboy pick because if you put Cecil/Golbez in there I'd take them to win the division easily and refuse to accept any other possibly result.
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#14 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2011 4:54:59 PM | message detail
I don't have many opportunities to go fanboy.

I mean, I guess I could throw Tidus/Jecht into round 3, but I'm trying not to let myself get talked into that one.

But Squall/Seifer don't really have much opportunity for me to fanboy out on any picks.
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#15 | red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2011 4:55:47 PM | message detail
I've got 3 more weeks to talk myself into Crono > Snake.
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90s games > 00s games
#16 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2011 4:56:48 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2008
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=997

Take it and run like the wind.
---
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#17 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/11/2011 4:58:51 PM | message detail | (edited)
Liquid Snake is awful, Lavos beat a Nintendo character. Solid Snake Brawl fans don't know who Liquid is. Pre-Brawl, Snake was weaker than Crono, ergo Crono/Lavos will beat Snakes.
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#18 | XIII_rocks | Posted 10/11/2011 4:57:15 PM | message detail
TheCodeisBosco posted...
Well, I pulled the trigger on Luigi/Waluigi > Trainers

OLBTWA

Also, SOWWWWWWLLLLLL. I want that account bet. I need that account bet (not really). Don't chicken out on me man.
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#19 | XIII_rocks | Posted 10/11/2011 4:57:48 PM | message detail | (edited)
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
Liquid Snake is awful, Lavos beat a Nintendo character. Solid Snake Brawl fans don't know who Liquid is. Pre-Brawl, Snake was weaker than Crono pre-Brawl, ergo Crono/Lavos will beat Snakes.

...s***

*switches to Crono/Lavos > Snakes*
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#20 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/11/2011 4:57:48 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2008
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=997

Take it and run like the wind.


Don't forget that Liquid has fallen off a cliff since that Lavos/Liquid match!
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#21 | pjbasis | Posted 10/11/2011 4:58:09 PM | message detail
Fanboy mode is kinda destroyed by the fact that Dante/Vergil Squall/Seifer and Sora/Riku are all in the same division.

At least they'll all lose to good people! Especially if Link doesn't win the whole thing.
#22 | red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2011 4:59:17 PM | message detail
Well, poll 997 seems decisive. Nothing beats a direct match after all!
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90s games > 00s games
#23 | MadGamer_11 | Posted 10/11/2011 6:02:46 PM | message detail
Wait a second are people actually saying Crono/Lavos has a chance to beat Snake? I thought we all agree Snake had it in the bag?
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#24 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/11/2011 6:32:20 PM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
I have Shep/Saren in that division and I'm sticking with it. It's the ultimate "go fanboy and don't look back" division if I ever saw it.

I originally had the ME2 duo winning the division, but I changed my mind when I realized that Shep/Saren vs. Frog/Magus would be in Round 3 - which will most likely be a sprite round. There's a decent chance I'll flip back to Shep over Aludrac, though; it's tough not to get sucked into the Aludrac hype, but at the same time, the idea of Shep losing that just doesn't feel right.

As for my fanboy picks? Well, when I saw Conker and GMP in the bracket, I almost **** bricks (pun completely and utterly intended). So, of course I took them over the FE pair! And really, my decision to take WaLuigi over the Trainers was fueled by fanboyism too - I think Luigi and Waluigi rock, while Red and Blue are the least deserving characters to ever get the 1-seed treatment.
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#25 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/11/2011 6:33:36 PM | message detail
MadGamer_11 posted...
Wait a second are people actually saying Crono/Lavos has a chance to beat Snake? I thought we all agree Snake had it in the bag?

Cravos absolutely has a chance at winning that. After seeing all three MGS games in GotD crap the bed, anything's possible.
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#26 | red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2011 6:34:10 PM | message detail
Wait a second are people actually saying Crono/Lavos has a chance to beat Snake? I thought we all agree Snake had it in the bag?

Don't worry, they're just humoring my Crono fanboyism.
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90s games > 00s games
#27 | KingButz | Posted 10/11/2011 6:35:49 PM | message detail

From: TheCodeisBosco | #025
Cravos absolutely has a chance at winning that. After seeing all three MGS games in GotD crap the bed, anything's possible.


Yeah, everyone pick Crono for that match!

One less bracket...
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#28 | Ayvuir | Posted 10/11/2011 6:37:14 PM | message detail
Guybrush/Le Chuck to take it all!
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#29 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/11/2011 6:38:11 PM | message detail
I still have Luigi losing in R1 and have even banked on it in my battle bracket.
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#30 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 10/11/2011 6:40:12 PM | message detail
MadGamer_11 posted...
Wait a second are people actually saying Crono/Lavos has a chance to beat Snake? I thought we all agree Snake had it in the bag?

This would be the absolutely best result in the contest, but sadly its not going to happen
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#31 | red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2011 6:41:11 PM | message detail
But after reflecting on it, this really is an opportunity. Liquid also sucks, so despite Lavos, this match is not much worse than Crono/Snake heads up. All we need is the drastically lower votals to work a lot of magic!
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90s games > 00s games
#32 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/11/2011 6:41:35 PM | message detail
KingButz posted...
From: TheCodeisBosco | #025
Cravos absolutely has a chance at winning that. After seeing all three MGS games in GotD crap the bed, anything's possible.
Yeah, everyone pick Crono for that match!

One less bracket...


Hey, don't get me wrong! I'm not touching that upset with a ten-foot pole. :P I just have no idea why people are completely counting Cravos out, when the previous contest was a disaster for MGS.

Ayvuir posted...
Guybrush/Le Chuck to take it all!

This would literally be the greatest thing ever.
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#33 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2011 6:43:31 PM | message detail

From: TheCodeisBosco | #032
Hey, don't get me wrong! I'm not touching that upset with a ten-foot pole. :P I just have no idea why people are completely counting Cravos out, when the previous contest was a disaster for MGS.


Because the last character battle was a total disaster for CT.
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#34 | red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2011 6:45:31 PM | message detail
Because the last character battle was a total disaster for CT.

Pft. That was before votals fell off the map. Crono got more votes in 12 hours than Majora's Mask got in 24 hours in the final.

(It's time to throw out reasonableness)
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90s games > 00s games
#35 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2011 6:48:40 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
But after reflecting on it, this really is an opportunity. Liquid also sucks, so despite Lavos, this match is not much worse than Crono/Snake heads up. All we need is the drastically lower votals to work a lot of magic!

Remember what happened the last time we had drastically low votals!

*SPOILER*

Crono beat Mario
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#36 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 10/11/2011 6:52:08 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
From: TheCodeisBosco | #032
Hey, don't get me wrong! I'm not touching that upset with a ten-foot pole. :P I just have no idea why people are completely counting Cravos out, when the previous contest was a disaster for MGS.
Because the last character battle was a total disaster for CT.


Eh, fair enough! Though I still don't think Missingno. > Crono was as embarrassing a result as people think. If anything, Magus was the one that looked like the biggest chump!

red sox does raise a legitimately good point in Crono's favor, though: a contest with low votals is the best thing a CT character could ask for. I'm still sticking with the Twin Snakes, for sure, but that makes me feel great about Frog/Magus winning the division.
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#37 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 10/11/2011 9:04:31 PM | message detail | (edited)
Oh hey a Phoenix Wright poll. Hard to believe its 10 years old, but I guess it did originally come out in Japan then.

Think we can take anything from this poll to help with the Gordon match?
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#38 | red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2011 9:05:03 PM | message detail
10 years? Chrono Trigger only had its 10th anniversary........well I guess it was 6 years ago.
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90s games > 00s games
#39 | Haste_2 | Posted 10/11/2011 9:34:10 PM | message detail | (edited)
Crono/Lavos beating Snake/Liquid would be absolutely insane. The only logical explanation of that occurring would be that all the voters see it as a "CT vs. MGS" match. That is about the only reason I can think of for Tidus/Jecht > Big Boss/The Boss, except that this one is a bit more likely.

Let's list the other underdogs from the stronger game/series, shall we?

Jill/Nemesis (RE > Kirby)
Leon/Ada Wong (RE > MK)....for that matter, RE4 is stronger than any DK game, too.
Yuna/Seymour (FFX > any Star Fox).... also, they're obviously from a stronger game than any Street Fighter.
Shepherd/Saron (ME > SOTN, I think?)
Ramza/Delita (FFT > Soul Calibur, I think?)

And, currently, almost 12% of voters own every PW game. Do you think it could stay above, say, 9%, by the time it's over?

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#40 | pjbasis | Posted 10/11/2011 9:30:58 PM | message detail
I wish we could get a Got Half-Life? poll next.
#41 | red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2011 9:32:25 PM | message detail
The only explanation for Crono > Snake is a major fanbase shift on the site. I'd probably give it higher odds than Cloud > Link heads up though (Cloud/Seph vs. Link/Ganon is very different and much more possible).
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90s games > 00s games
#42 | HaRRicH | Posted 10/11/2011 9:32:31 PM | message detail
Good poll. I don't think we had proof its meme was bigger than its games before now. I also didn't expect his exposure to do so well, though it should go down from its current 78.72%.
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#43 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/11/2011 10:21:20 PM | message detail
This poll.

Lmao.
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#44 | KamikazePotato | Posted 10/11/2011 11:10:51 PM | message detail
Who's ready for the onslaught of 'LOL PHOENIX WRIGHT' posts after today's polls even though we've already seen Phoenix in a contest before multiple times and HL2 probably doesn't beat these numbers by much

Because I sure am
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#45 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/11/2011 11:15:02 PM | message detail | (edited)
25% ownership for such a niche handheld-exclusive series might actually be better than I woulda expected. How well do you guys think Half-Life would do? I'm glad so many are aware of the Objection meme, although I'm worried that so few people have played the game outside the owners (who I'd imagine are the ardent fans).

EDIT: Happy to inform our LEGIONS of supporters that we just recorded our first podcast episode. Excellent guest too. Think you guys will like it.
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#46 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2011 11:29:53 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm not sure how well Half-Life would do.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4473

Plus, I don't see people naysaying Alucard/Dracula because of this poll.
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#47 | junk_funk | Posted 10/11/2011 11:41:58 PM | message detail | (edited)
There's only one match I can't decide on and that's Yuna/Seymour v. Fox/Wolf.

Also I was hoping the bracket would set up a Mario/Bowser v. Cloud/Seph match. But oh well.
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#48 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/11/2011 11:58:16 PM | message detail
I'm not sure why some people are having a hard time with Fox/Wolf vs. Yuna/Seymour. I guess maybe Yuna/Seymour did poorly enough in the vote-ins that I'm not really giving them due consideration, but I picked Fox/Wolf without a second thought there.
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#49 | pjbasis | Posted 10/11/2011 11:58:56 PM | message detail
junk_funk posted...
Also I was hoping the bracket would set up a Mario/Bowser v. Cloud/Seph match. But oh well.

It did.
#50 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/12/2011 4:30:18 AM | message detail
Guys, is Saren in Mass Effect 2?

From what I read on IGN's Top 100 Villains list, Saren seems to have a lot of backstory, but NONE of it involves Commander Shepard, who just seems to be some generic space marine trained to "save the galaxy" (kinda sad that we've degraded from characters like Mario, Sonic, and Snake to such a guy for a generation icon).

The problem is that I'd take Mass Effect 1 > SOTN and Mass Effect is a more story-based game than SOTN, but at the same time Alucard/Dracula seems to be more of a rivalry because Alucard is Dracula's son while Shepard/Saren is just a hero/villain relationship.

(characters have no bearing on this: I would pick Alucard > Shepard without second thought because is a vampire really going to lose to a generic space marine?)
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