GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1006
there's nothing statistically weird about either 2006 Gordon/Phoenix or 2010 Phoenix. Just an interesting estimate. Zelda/Jecht? Or does Jecht give Tidus a scare indirectly? --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
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That comparison would be more fair if it accounted for Gordon's boost from the Orange Box in 2007. --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg Nominate E P O N A. |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/contribute/submit_contest_image.php That form was just updated for this contest. The match pic crew can start submitting their images. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
YESH --- Want to listen to more video game music every day? Check out the VGMusicoftheDay Youtube Channel sometime! |
HaRRicH posted... I see a lot of trust being given to select one-seeds here, especially Wright/Edgeworth. It's worth noting that our board had a big influence on nominations, and you can see that by just looking at the one-seeds; four of the eight had big board-rallies (MMX/Zero, Phoenix/Miles, Red/Blue, Squall/Seifer). It was also with our help that Frog/Magus got a two-seed while Crono/Lavos got a seven-seed. Those rivalries may still be strong, but I don't trust their seeding for a second -- several of them were there largely because of the board, moreso than most contests. Phoenix/Miles provide a good rivalry to be considered, but I'll be shocked if their strength justifies their seed. Gordon beats Phoenix with ease one-on-one, HL2 wrecks any PW-game, Gordon/Breen did well enough in their vote-in, and Valve has a growing presence on GameFAQs (including the current-GotY which is loosely tied into the HL-universe). Phoenix/Miles better hold onto their early lead and never let go if they want to win. There are two key points here. 1. Seeding matters. Look no farther than 2006 for that one. Honestly, if Phoenix was a 1-seed and Gordon was an 8-seed in a 1-on-1 match, I'd probably take Phoenix, at least in a night match (I would otherwise take Gordon, albeit closer than last time). 2. This is the important one: Games are not characters. Sometimes characters are really close to their games (Phoenix) and others are much weaker (Gordon). And even moreso, Portal is not Half-Life. The connection between Portal and Gordon is incredibly tenuous. Yes, the games take place in the Half-Life universe. But I'll be honest, who really lets that decide their opinion of either. Hell, if you had only a passing familiarity with Half-Life you could play both Portal games and not realise it was part of the same universe, on account of the fact that the connections are nothing more than easter eggs. Yes, the games are made by the same company and take place in the same universe, but they are also completely separate entities. Actually they're so different, I highly doubt Portal 2's popularity on the site has caused a surge in Half-Life fans, let alone Gordon fans. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
1.
Seeding matters. Look no farther than 2006 for that one. Honestly, if
Phoenix was a 1-seed and Gordon was an 8-seed in a 1-on-1 match, I'd
probably take Phoenix, at least in a night match (I would otherwise take
Gordon, albeit closer than last time). Seeding doesn't matter, look at the prediction percentages, we've seen 15 seeds have more brackets than 2 seeds. You're essentially saying that if everyone bracket voted a 12 hour 1/8 match would require every single bracket maker to vote in that time and have Phoenix Wright getting over 60% if the brackets against a character that tends to get decent bracket support. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
charmander6000 posted... there's nothing statistically weird about either 2006 Gordon/Phoenix or 2010 Phoenix. Just an interesting estimate. Zelda/Jecht? Or does Jecht give Tidus a scare indirectly? Honestly? Yes. Hell, Jecht might give Tidus a scare directly. Remember, this is Tidus. He's already weaker than everybody else from his own game. HaRRicH posted... That comparison would be more fair if it accounted for Gordon's boost from the Orange Box in 2007. I'm not going to say there was no boost, but there's no way of calculating that. It doesn't look promising however given his poor (and unusable thanks to Tifa) performance last year. It's a damn shame we have nothing quantifiable, but *I* certainly didn't notice Gordon turning any heads. I mean, in 2008, he looked a little stronger, but will he really have maintained that? And do we think (and there will inevitably be some lol 4-ways here) he can equal what he did on Tifa last year against Vincent? I doubt it. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
1)
If your 2006-example's referring to Sora's success, I'd bet on KH2
playing a much larger boost. If not, I'm unsure what you mean. 2) Games aren't rivalries, but neither are characters. All we really have on them is that Gordon beats Phoenix/Miles one-on-one, HL2 trounces any of their games, and Gordon/Breen did okay as a rivalry in the vote-in. It's not enough info to fairly gauge, but it's the info we have. The HL/Portal-connection wasn't meant to be a big point, hence the parentheses. This is still probably the biggest presence Valve/Steam ever had here though. Portal 2 leading GotY and Steam's growing popularity (including reaching Mac-systems this year) support that. It probably doesn't mean much for HL2 -- much less for Gordon/Breen -- but it can't hurt considering how many Valve-fans support basically their entire catalog. --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg Nominate E P O N A. |
charmander6000 posted... Seeding doesn't matter, look at the prediction percentages, we've seen 15 seeds have more brackets than 2 seeds. You're essentially saying that if everyone bracket voted a 12 hour 1/8 match would require every single bracket maker to vote in that time and have Phoenix Wright getting over 60% if the brackets against a character that tends to get decent bracket support. I'm not going to say that seeding is all important, just that it matters. And 1/8 matches are where it matters most. I can also say with confidence that regardless of the actual outcome, Phoenix/Edgeworth will be an easy (though less so than other 1-seeds) favourite in that match. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
I've
gotta say that seeds matter a bit. The 1-seed should get a bit more
bracket support simply for having that top seed. I certainly don't think
Gordon would get the same prediction percentage if he were a 1-seed
than he will as the 8-seed. If that increased prediction percentage
means even a very tiny increase in support via bracket voting, then it's
something to consider. I personally think the much bigger deals here are: - Breen doing nothing for his team. I don't think Edgeworth is as big a boost to Phoenix as some are speculating, but it's hard to do WORSE as a partner than Breen - Gordon now sitting at 4 years without one bit of new software. In that time, Portal and L4D have become popular series, and TF2 has become free-to-play. Half-Life (and by extension Gordon) have really fallen behind - Phoenix Wright's FIGHTING GAME DEBUT happens only 3-ish days after the match. There will be some hype, and the littlest bit helps This is the single toughest Round 1 match for me, but I'm starting to side with the lawyers. --- Yoblazer: http://oi53.tinypic.com/2hd0dh1.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
I'm feeling pretty good about the MGS rivalries, feelin' lucky. --- One Piece: Pirates with style! -= Metal Gear Solid: Tactical Espionage Action =- |
Oh
yeah, TF2's free to play too. It's a shame we couldn't see any
TF2-characters in this contest. Spy and Heavy would be looking even
better than before, and we may have even seen another character or two
sneak in. Gordon's less relevant than before, but he's still the face of Valve (even if GLaDOS's stronger than Gordon now, perhaps like Nintendo's Mario to their Link) and their stock is still rising here. He shouldn't hurt from this too soon. --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg Nominate E P O N A. |
I'm
not sure who I would take in an Edgeworth/Breen match, but if there is
going to be a rivalry factor it'll appear in this match. So which match will be the first one to involve a good rivalry vs. a bad/non-rivalry? --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
Spy and Heavy are units, not characters. |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #310 oh man I totally forgot about that --- Want to listen to more video game music every day? Check out the VGMusicoftheDay Youtube Channel sometime! |
HaRRicH posted... 1) If your 2006-example's referring to Sora's success, I'd bet on KH2 playing a much larger boost. If not, I'm unsure what you mean. 2) Games aren't rivalries, but neither are characters. All we really have on them is that Gordon beats Phoenix/Miles one-on-one, HL2 trounces any of their games, and Gordon/Breen did okay as a rivalry in the vote-in. It's not enough info to fairly gauge, but it's the info we have. The HL/Portal-connection wasn't meant to be a big point, hence the parentheses. This is still probably the biggest presence Valve/Steam ever had here though. Portal 2 leading GotY and Steam's growing popularity (including reaching Mac-systems this year) support that. It probably doesn't mean much for HL2 -- much less for Gordon/Breen -- but it can't hurt considering how many Valve-fans support basically their entire catalog. 1) Now it is I who is unsure what *you* mean! I'm lost! 2) Characters are parts of rivalries, though I will agree to an extent. There's more to rivalries than just the characters involved, but the characters involved are still important. And franky the rivalry aspect undeniably favours Phoenix/Edgeworth. And of course, you forget the other Half-Life character we've seen in a contest, Alyx Vance. Edgeworth may be weak, but Alyx is weak. I think a lot of the people saying Breen may come close to Edgeworth are forgetting how much she sucked. Seriously, Edgeworth did better on Big Boss than she did against Lara Croft. That is not good. Now, you're probably wondering what Alyx has to do with anything. Well, ask yourself. Is there any reason Breen would do better than a character who's in all the marketing, had just had a game release to back her up, and is more readily visible to the casual player? No? That's right. Seriously, if Breen ever got in on his own he may be one of the weakest characters ever. Like, Sandal or Tanner bad. I got a bit off track there, but it's basically Gordon vs. Phoenix, except the ball's in Phoenix's court. Phoenix has an iconic rival who may be weak but screams "RIVAL" just to look at him. Gordon has an old man who's certainly even weaker. Phoenix has a top division placement and a nice 1, Gordon has a slightly embarassing 8. Phoenix has a time advantage. And of course, Phoenix has one of the more beloved rivalries out there. What I'm saying is that there are so many variables that could go in Phoenix's favour. There are many conditions under which Phoenix could win, but only one condition under which Gordon can win, and that's that none of that matters and we really get Phoenix vs. Gordon 2. And even then, it'd be close. And then, if smart voterFAQs ckicks in and they vote based on rivalries alone... Phoenix/Edgeworth still wins. Those reasons are why I feel Phoenix/Edgeworth is more likely despite admitting Gordon/Breen is still possible: too many things that could go wrong for Gordon/Breen and right for Phoenix/Edgeworth. Also, you overestimate these so-called "Valve fans". You do realise that there are many people who love Portal, but just don't care about the rest of Valve's catalogue, right? Especially now that Portal is mostly seen outside the Orange Box (and free) and Portal 2 is entirely its own phenomenon. I just don't think Valve really helps Half-Life by people buying completely different games. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
You said seeding matters and said look at 2006 like we knew what you mean. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
Zelda. Yuna. Tifa. Sora maybe, but he did have KH2 as stated (could've been both!) --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
I'd
be curious to see Alyx again nowadays; I don't think she flops like
that anymore since Gordon's found some real traction here shortly
afterward. Dr. Breen also did well enough at GameSpot's Villain Contest
-- he upset Team Rocket and Wario with ~55% each before bowing out to
4chan's flavor of the week. Phoenix/Miles undoubtedly get the "real rivalry" edge, but I remain skeptical that it can matter so much for such relatively small characters to overcome Gordon/Breen when they have the stronger character and game on their side. That's not a powerhouse by any means, but Phoenix/Miles weren't necessarily that close to begin with and their series isn't particularly significant. --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg Nominate E P O N A. |
link to breen upsetting team rocket and wario because lol gamespot but still "what" he doesn't seem like the type of character you can rally --- ~Acting on Impulse~ Black Turtle still didn't MAJORA'S MASK |
Besides against Samus which by that time it was 1 seed vs. 1 seed the female bracket was fairly normal. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
Does
anyone else think that Pokemon Trainer/Team Rocket could have been much
stronger than Red/Blue, regardless of how strong Red/Blue ends up? |
Of course. That'd be making it double and whatnot. --- One Piece: Pirates with style! -= Metal Gear Solid: Tactical Espionage Action =- |
Unsure about HL's trends, but the night match should help Phoenix, right? --- Yoblazer: http://oi53.tinypic.com/2hd0dh1.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
Gordon is good in Europe, but so is Phoenix. Gordon is bad in Asia, but Phoenix does well there. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Dante and Kirby in 2005 kind of imply the 1 seed factor as well. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest! |
Entered my first contest, yay! ... can Trainer Blue vs Red seriously be considered a rivalry? --- http://i.imgur.com/2qt65.jpg Got the dough, I'm gonna blow... |
QJD1381 posted... Entered my first contest, yay! ... can Trainer Blue vs Red seriously be considered a rivalry? If anything in the contest is a rivalry, that most certainly is. |
QJD1381 posted... Entered my first contest, yay! ... can Trainer Blue vs Red seriously be considered a rivalry? I take it you've never played Pokemon. --- From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch |
From: QJD1381 | #327 It was stated right from the beginning that Blue was your rival. --- Thanks for reinforcing your stupidity, jerks. Einstein > You |
Dante and Kirby in 2005 kind of imply the 1 seed factor as well. Dante had DMC3 that year and didn't exactly do anything special while Kirby has been putting up similar performances since then. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
Lightning Strikes posted... So since people brought up lol xstats regarding Phoenix Gordon, it is worth noting that 2010 Phoenix is projected to get 49% on 2006 Gordon And 2010 Gordon gets 58.5% on 2010 Phoenix... I don't see where you're going. Justin_Crossing posted... link to breen upsetting team rocket and wario because lol gamespot but still "what" he doesn't seem like the type of character you can rally http://www.gamespot.com/greatest-video-game-villain/vote/battle-hub/index.html?battle_id=56 http://www.gamespot.com/greatest-video-game-villain/vote/battle-hub/index.html?battle_id=47 He eventually got knocked out by a 4chan and Epic rallied General RAAM. It should be noted it has about 165k total votes... none of the other matches that round had over 140k. It took massive rallying to just take out Breen. People really are underestimating the dude. http://www.gamespot.com/greatest-video-game-villain/vote/battle-hub/index.html?battle_id=60 --- http://pixelatedgeek.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/header-fate-zero.jpg http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
whatisurnameplz posted... From: QJD1381 | #327 Entered my first contest, yay! ... can Trainer Blue vs Red seriously be considered a rivalry? It was stated right from the beginning that Blue was your rival. ...Huh. Coulda sworn you could name your rival. Who really kept his name as Blue? --- http://i.imgur.com/2qt65.jpg Got the dough, I'm gonna blow... |
redrocket posted... QJD1381 posted... Entered my first contest, yay! ... can Trainer Blue vs Red seriously be considered a rivalry? I take it you've never played Pokemon. Nope! Is there any reason I should take this rivalry seriously when the game presumably revolves around the pokemon themselves, not the storyline? I'm assuming the high seed is a board 8 creation. --- Watch me play games! http://www.livestream.com/dabu |
In many RPGs you can change the name of your characters, just that most people don't. Though in pokemon most people don't keep the original name. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
In many RPGs you can change the name of your characters, just that most people don't. This poll definitely proves just that: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3390 --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
From: QJD1381 | #333 You can, people just say Blue or Gary when referring to Rival for consistency purposes. --- Thanks for reinforcing your stupidity, jerks. Einstein > You |
Nope!
Is there any reason I should take this rivalry seriously when the game
presumably revolves around the pokemon themselves, not the storyline?
I'm assuming the high seed is a board 8 creation. Blue spends literally the entire game antagonizing you (the player, Red), is a step ahead of you the whole time and *rby spoilers* is the final boss of the game. Then in GSC Blue has a cameo where he acknowledges Red. Red and Blue are said multiple times to be childhood friends and/or rivals iirc, and catching up with Blue is one of the game's main objectives. --- http://www.funnycorner.net/funny-pictures/4834/big-boss.jpg |
From: LOLContests | #257 A day match benefits Zelda, not Jecht. But you know what else happened on the release day of a major FF game? http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2549 Do we think Aerith overperformed in that match? I don't really think she did, considering Yuna put up the same number not long after. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2566 And that match was on TP release day. Do we think Link overperformed there and Cloud actually should've been closer? It's possible, I guess. I just think people are making too big of a deal out of "Jecht/Zelda was on FFXIII's release date." I don't think it made that much difference. It fit Jecht's strength range pretty well, I think. Phoenix's overall value would've been lower in a day match or a 24-hour match, but that's irrelevant when discussing the first round match. From: FateStayAlbion | #262 Not as bad as Alyx Vance though. And Breen will be worse than her. From: HaRRicH | #291 You think that was a good performance? I don't think not doing much better than Raynor/Kerrigan is a good sign. I guess people are looking at how it got relatively close to Leon/Ada, but I don't really think they looked that good. Also, the bonus match better involve Mario/Sonic. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
Red/Blue won't be too strong here. Decent midcarder, not much else. Overseeded for sure but not much we can do about that now. --- Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename |
From: FateStayAlbion | #332 I'm not sure what stats you're looking at, but the stats I'm looking at project that match as a 56/44 match. Oh, I see. You're looking at cn's stats. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
A day match benefits Zelda, not Jecht. A day match benefits Jecht in this one case, since it was release day for a major game, and people interested in said game are more likely to come online after it has officially been released. Do we think Aerith overperformed in that match? I don't really think she did, considering Yuna put up the same number not long after. Aerith probably did overperform in that match. We didn't realize it at the time, since we didn't know how crazily popular Zelda was that year or that Aerith had dropped off since 2003. I concede that Yuna did the same a week later, but she had been overperforming the whole contest aside from her match with Chun-Li. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest! |
From: charmander6000 | #301 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3765 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3693 I certainly wouldn't discount the possibility, at least. --- http://images.cheezburger.com/completestore/2011/8/22/2094c2de-bae8-4f5b-9f27-67eaff0aaeaf.jpg |
From: LOLContests | #342 A day match never benefits FF over Zelda. The trends are definitely not pro-Jecht. And again, I ask: What about Link/Cloud on TP release day? Is that an overperformance? --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
And again, I ask: What about Link/Cloud on TP release day? Is that an overperformance? Possibly. Cloud had Advent Children that year so he might have made up some ground on Link since 2005. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest! |
From: LOLContests | #345 Advent Children was 2005. --- http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/8516/whatisdesiresig.gif |
And that match was on TP release day. Do we think Link overperformed there and Cloud actually should've been closer? It's not just possible, it's almost certain. Unless you think Link has actually lost ground to Cloud since 2006, anyway. --- 90s games > 00s games |
If
that's all Link of all people is able to manage, then the difference is
fairly negligible anyway, considering Link is the star of TP and Jecht
isn't even in FFXIII. That's all my point is. If you believe those are overperformances, then what Jecht gets on Zelda from FFXIII isn't worth making a fuss about like it was a big deal. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2124 Just like the silly people who tried to argue Vincent overperformed on Crono because of Advent Children and saying that was the problem with the Devil Division in the 2005 stats! --- http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif |
WarThaNemesis2 posted... Seriously though how many times are people going to need to get burned by Dante before they stop taking him in a close match? >_> Have yet to get burned by Dante! --- peace comes from within |
FF:AC's Japanese version leaked during 2005's contest, but the English version didn't release until after that contest. LeonhartFour posted... You think that was a good performance? I don't think not doing much better than Raynor/Kerrigan is a good sign. I guess people are looking at how it got relatively close to Leon/Ada, but I don't really think they looked that good. I'll give Raynor/Kerrigan some credit since SC2 was eventually released. It was also the toughest vote-in -- both with the top three and probably the top rivalry -- so I'm content with their performance as far as R1 goes. I don't think Phoenix/Edgeworth would be doing much better there anyway. --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg Nominate E P O N A. |
