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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1006

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#101 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/8/2011 10:52:03 PM | message detail | (edited)

From: KamikazePotato | #098
So between Saren, Lavos, Rodrigo, Waluigi, Giygas, Dr. Breen, and Blinky, which character is the biggest detriment to his rivalry?


In this bracket, it's Waluigi. Crono drew Solid Snake and is dead regardless of his rival. Shepard and Ezio are just too new, not really cut out for this contest. I expect disappointing performances out of them; they simply haven't had the time to develop any rivalry or character relationship people care about. In fact, of all the current-gen, new rivalries to make the bracket, the only one I'm expecting to do well (relative to the board's expectations) is Chell/GlaDOS because people care about it. I also think Blinky and Pac-Man create synergy. It'll be pretty hilarious to see them up on the front page, and they'll be repping what may be a "first rivalry ever" status that could reverberate well with voters. Hell, I bet Pac-Man and Blinky would give Ezio a fight.

EDIT: Forgot to say WHY it's Waluigi lol

Luigi is usually a top 15 stud. In this contest, he may well be taken out by characters he'd smear 1v1. Yeah, that's partly due to the Trainers' rivalry giving them a boost, but it's also because he and Waluigi don't really have any relationship at all. Waluigi just exists to make Mario multiplayer even funnier (and he does his job damn well).
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#102 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2011 11:07:02 PM | message detail
So you're a believer in Pac-Man/Blinky getting a rivalry boost?

...Can Pac-Man and Blinky get sprite pictures in round 1? I guess there may not be much of a choice considering I don't know if Blinky actually has official artwork or if pic-makers will bother using it.

...Is this official?

http://vectorlib.free.fr/PacMan/jpg/blinky.jpg

Well, whatever. We should just use these pics instead:

http://ima.dada.net/image/2685727.jpg
http://www.mypartyplanner.com/common/d_images/products/00/01/FA/image_129726.jpg
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#103 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/8/2011 11:09:43 PM | message detail
I think they'd overperform against new BADASS characters that don't really have much of a history, which is the same rationale I used to argue the possibility of Pac-Man beating Halo.
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#104 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2011 11:10:20 PM | message detail
#105 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/8/2011 11:12:39 PM | message detail
We couldn't see that theory really tested in GotD, but one of the oldest games of the decade did win.
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#106 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2011 11:13:28 PM | message detail
There's quite a bit of difference between Majora's Mask old and Pac-Man old.

Majora's Mask isn't much older than Halo!
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#107 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/8/2011 11:17:19 PM | message detail
Well, Halo did disprove my specific example by proving itself as a strong and respected game. Characters are something else, however, and even more so in this specialized contest where some voters may think a little bit more before casting their vote. Yeah... I think I'd take da Pac n Blink express over Ezio here. I'd at least think about it.
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#108 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2011 11:21:44 PM | message detail
Well, I'm as game on Pac-Man > Mario Sunshine as anyone.

I'm still concerned about the possibility of Pac-Man only having one ghost companion instead of the entire group maybe not helping him very much, but that all really depends on how much people actually take the format into consideration and all that. It's also probable I'm just overthinking it.

But I wouldn't be too surprised to see Ezio lose to something not as good when paired with Rodrigo. You don't even know the guy's name until the very end of the game. He's just called "The Spaniard" until then, I guess to keep the suspense alive for people who would actually know who the heck Rodrigo Borgia was in real life. I guess if they got a match pic of the last boss fight of AC2, that might help, since that's a pretty memorable moment, but nevertheless, it's not a great rivalry anyway.
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#109 | Greyfeld | Posted 10/8/2011 11:31:32 PM | message detail
I actually think having Blinky instead of the entire ghost troop helps boost pac-man. When I first saw the rivalry listing, I looked at it for a couple seconds, then I started laughing. Pacman/Ghosts is iconic. Pacman/Blinky is funny as hell. Joke vote factor will get him past the first round, though he'll fall to the Snake duo in round 2.
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#110 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2011 11:33:21 PM | message detail
I just feel like the day's coming when Pac-Man isn't as universally recognized as he used to be, and that day will be painful for him indeed.

It may not be a big deal with this site though since our average age is old enough that the majority of the voters know Pac-Man and the ghosts, but nevertheless.
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#111 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/8/2011 11:34:17 PM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #109
When I first saw the rivalry listing, I looked at it for a couple seconds, then I started laughing.


Heh, same. I thought for a few seconds, realized Blinky musta been the red ghost, googled it to make sure, and laughed.
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#112 | Big Bob | Posted 10/8/2011 11:43:30 PM | message detail
Again, it kinda sucked that we weren't allowed to nominate groups. Plants vs. Zombies is a classic rivalry, dammit!

(and haters gonna hate Angry Birds vs. Pigs)
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#113 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 10/9/2011 12:50:30 AM | message detail
I'm pretty confident Pac-Man's R1 match is gonna be a lot closer than most expect. Certainly doubt it gets beyond 55/45.
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#114 | jacko_vdz | Posted 10/9/2011 1:53:45 AM | message detail
When people see Waluigi they are going to think Mario Party/Tennis/Golf/etc. Red/Blue will do well for the same reason RBY does well in game contests. I'm almost considering taking them over Samus/Ridley tbh.
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#115 | Emporer_Kazbar | Posted 10/9/2011 2:12:50 AM | message detail
Red/Blue has the opportunity to really turn heads, I think. I mean, it's first gen Pokemon, with recognizable representation in and out of sprites, and...well, honestly, am I the only one who, when they hear the word "rival", they think of Pokemon?
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#116 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/9/2011 6:38:06 AM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
I'm pretty confident Pac-Man's R1 match is gonna be a lot closer than most expect. Certainly doubt it gets beyond 55/45.

I don't think anybody is expecting more than 55/4
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#117 | transience | Posted 10/9/2011 6:41:41 AM | message detail
thinking about it..

Established characters that are weaker thanks to this format -

Donkey Kong
Ezio
Leon Kennedy
Yuna
Gordon Freeman
Luigi (the worst of the bunch)
Terra/Kefka
Crono

Established characters who are stronger thanks to this format -

Alucard/Dracula
Frog/Magus
Sub-Zero/Scorpion
Ryu/Ken
Pokemon Red/Blue (probably the winner -- or at least the ones with the most to gain)
Phoenix/Edgeworth
Pac-Man/Blinky (oh yeah)

the rest seem like a push or neutral. Chell should be fine with Glados because people who know Glados know Chell and they have great chemistry (even if it's all on Glados and Chell doesn't talk). Kratos/Zeus is probably a boost too but he's got a dead end path that's really unfortunate. I think Kirby/Meta-Knight might be a negative just because people know those characters from Smash more than they do from Kirby games. they get by on character design moreso than the Kirby series. at least Dante and Vergil have a good rivalry going on.
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#118 | SunO0 | Posted 10/9/2011 6:53:00 AM | message detail
How does King K. Rool make DK weaker? If anything, it reminds people more of DK's SNES days.
#119 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2011 6:54:05 AM | message detail
I'm surprised more people haven't given Chell/GlaDOS vs. Ness/Gygas more thought. Using last year's stats Ness should have no problem taking on GlaDOS. Though a lot has happen with Portal since the last contest there is the possiblity that they fall short.
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#120 | transience | Posted 10/9/2011 6:55:52 AM | message detail
the only thing going for DK is that he's iconic, really. even in the DKC games he was overshadowed by Diddy (and yet Diddy is weaker than him). DK is notable for being around for 30 years and being in all those party games.
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#121 | ZFS | Posted 10/9/2011 7:09:42 AM | message detail
Who is Chell, anyway? Some Portal 2 character?
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#122 | transience | Posted 10/9/2011 7:14:23 AM | message detail
Portal 1 and 2 protagonist.
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#123 | ZFS | Posted 10/9/2011 7:15:01 AM | message detail
Oh, is that the character you play as? Who knew!
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#124 | transience | Posted 10/9/2011 7:15:41 AM | message detail
same with Glados really. anyway, the whole point is that people see those two as intertwined and if you recognize one, you'll recognize the other. Chell won't hurt Glados here.
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#125 | ZFS | Posted 10/9/2011 7:25:20 AM | message detail
Not really. You can't come away from Portal and not know who Glados is. Totally different with Chell.
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#126 | transience | Posted 10/9/2011 7:28:14 AM | message detail
but if you see Glados in a match pic you won't be confused. that's what I'm saying.
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#127 | ZFS | Posted 10/9/2011 7:29:13 AM | message detail
Well, I never said there would be confusion. I was just saying that Chell is totally an afterthought in that rivalry. I don't think that duo is particularly noteworthy, in any case.
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#128 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/9/2011 7:39:25 AM | message detail
Just saw the bracket and WHAT??!! How can Bacon seriously justify throwing Crono away in the first round? Maybe there is something to the one rivalry per game theory, so he wanted Crono out early. Wow.
#129 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 10/9/2011 7:40:55 AM | message detail
Also, is anyone else worried that Hitler could screw up this bracket?
#130 | GranzonEx | Posted 10/9/2011 7:43:03 AM | message detail | (edited)

From: TheOneAboveAll | #129
Also, is anyone else worried that Hitler could screw up this bracket?


I don't think this board really cares about this contest.
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#131 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2011 8:04:09 AM | message detail
I think it's because most people feel that he won't do much in this contest. Sora/Riku in the day is going to be a strong opponent, add that to day matches getting more votes and I and a lot of people are having a hard time seeing him last longer than the power hour. The only advantage BJ/Adolf have is that ralliers have over two weeks to prepare.
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#132 | XIII_rocks | Posted 10/9/2011 8:05:28 AM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Well, I never said there would be confusion. I was just saying that Chell is totally an afterthought in that rivalry. I don't think that duo is particularly noteworthy, in any case.

Glados plays off Chell quite a lot in Portal 2.
#133 | KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2011 8:07:26 AM | message detail
Hitler didn't exactly light the vote-ins on fire. He was almost below Katherine by the end of it.
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#134 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2011 8:10:00 AM | message detail
The way I've made some of my choices is based on how much does the second (weaker) character bring to the overall strength. As an example how many more fans would Chell bring compare to GlaDOS alone.
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#135 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2011 8:11:48 AM | message detail
Hitler didn't exactly light the vote-ins on fire. He was almost below Katherine by the end of it.

Heck I would take Sora/Riku over Big Boss/The Boss, ralliers have their work cut out for them.
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#136 | voltch | Posted 10/9/2011 8:13:57 AM | message detail
Why would you even want to glorify Hitler even as a joke.
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#137 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/9/2011 8:31:06 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2011 11:07:26 AM | message detail | quote
Hitler didn't exactly light the vote-ins on fire. He was almost below Katherine by the end of it.


Hitler would have finished above Katherine even without the rallying.
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#138 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/9/2011 8:32:09 AM | message detail
voltch posted...
Why would you even want to glorify Hitler even as a joke.

Eh, you also have to look at the history there. Wolfenstein is a pretty iconic game, so a lot of votes are going to come from that fact alone. That match will be close, but I think Sora/Riku have it locked up. If they don't, Hitler isn't getting past Squall.
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#139 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/9/2011 8:44:51 AM | message detail
I'm not worried about Hitler. Sora/Riku should be strong enough to stop them before they can become an actual threat.
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#140 | HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2011 8:45:38 AM | message detail
GLaDOS's biggest obstacles in past contests were her pictures and face-time, but Portal 2 fixed those problems. It's also been our GotY for a lot of this year, with GLaDOS heading it all. That's going to help out a lot, especially when it's coupled with Portal 1's continued success.

Chell herself probably doesn't add much, but she's not unrecognizable either; we see her in many of the portals, including the very first time you use a portal in Portal 1. Advertising's featured her a lot as well, though never by name. Still, there is a modern classic game-rivalry to be considered by those who recognize them now.

Ness/Giygas shouldn't be an issue anymore, but I have Chell/GLaDOS winning the division too.
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#141 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 10/9/2011 8:58:49 AM | message detail
While I'm still sticking with Red/Blue > Samus/Ridley:

Ridley (2010c) has a strength of 27.45 against Base Link.
Pokemon Trainer Red (2010c) has a strength of 27.59 against Base Link.

Ridley 49.75% 33,137
Pokemon Trainer Red 50.25% 33,475
TOTAL VOTES 66,612
Pokemon Trainer Red wins with 50.25% of the vote!
A 338 vote margin of victory.

'Kay, so Red and Ridley are essentially even, nice to know. Problem is, Red probably meets Blue more times in Pokemon RBY than Samus meets Ridley in the entirety of the Metroid series (let's see...twice in Zero Mission, twice in Metroid Prime, twice in Metroid Prime 3, twice in Super Metroid, three times in Other M - okay, looks like I jumped to conclusions too quickly).

I think recent relevancy will also matter considerably, and as far as I know, there are three rivalries which I think will have serious problems with this:

Sonic/Robotnik - Just to ask, is Robotnik the "ultimate, overarching" antagonist of Sonic Colors? I know that in both Sonic Adventures, Sonic Heroes, and Sonic '06 that Robotnik turned out to be...okay, forget this, at least Robotnik IS a major antagonist in all those games even though he may not be the final boss or something...

DK/Rool - I thought the new Donkey Kong Country game threw the Kremlings out in favor of Tikis or something? Also doesn't DK draw most of his strength from Smash Bros. just like Samus and Kirby do? Might as well forget thinking much of this one.

Link/Ganondorf - Okay, I seriously cannot think of more than two times these two actually meet in these games outside of the final confrontation of a Zelda title - once in Ocarina of Time and once in The Wind Waker. That's it. I don't even know why we think Skyward Sword coming out in the middle of the contest will matter much - for one thing, GameFAQs doesn't seem to care much, and for another thing, Ganondorf won't be in Skyward Sword.

Okay, now let's take a look at this:

Phoenix Wright (2010c) has a strength of 24.74 against Base Link.
Gordon Freeman (2010c) has a strength of 29.78 against Base Link.

Phoenix Wright 41.54% 27,420
Gordon Freeman 58.46% 38,591
TOTAL VOTES 66,011
Gordon Freeman wins with 58.46% of the vote!
A 11,172 vote margin of victory.

Looks like I can forget about that upset then. I expected more from you, Dr. Freeman, than a mere 58.5%. Ah, now let's take a look at another case:

Metroid Prime (2009g) has a strength of 25.59 against Base Link.
Half-Life 2 (2009g) has a strength of 30.22 against Base Link.

Metroid Prime 42.34% 51,713
Half-Life 2 57.66% 70,426
TOTAL VOTES 122,138
Half-Life 2 wins with 57.66% of the vote!
A 18,713 vote margin of victory.

So see what happened last time something Half-Life-related was projected to get 58% on something it was slated to face? Yup, Gordon's got no hope.

On an aside, one last huge piece of "LOL" (for lack of a better term) from the BGE2009 stats:

Paper Mario (2009g) has a strength of 18.55 against Base Link.
World of Warcraft (2009g) has a strength of 28.65 against Base Link.

Paper Mario 32.37% 38,320
World of Warcraft 67.63% 80,049
TOTAL VOTES 118,369
World of Warcraft wins with 67.63% of the vote!
A 41,729 vote margin of victory.
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#142 | KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2011 9:04:22 AM | message detail
In the interest of gathering as much pre-contest data about the rivalries, I asked people to rank them in order of how much they liked them (and you guys should all go contribute...!). Here's what we got for the first day.

Mario vs. Bowser - 219
Sonic vs. Dr. Robotnik - 174
Kirby vs. Meta Knight - 161
Ike vs. Black Knight - 150
Katherine vs. Catherine - 126
Jill Valentine vs. Nemesis - 120
Conker vs. Great Mighty Poo - 69
Jim vs. Queen Slug-for-a-Butt - 61

Total Votes: 30

You know, this could easily pass for a standard contest strength ranking. Division 1 doesn't look like it'll be too interesting.
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#143 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/9/2011 9:18:49 AM | message detail | (edited)
LMS I'm confused. Did you just make a huge post that used X-stats and then present an example about why you shouldn't use x-stats?
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#144 | Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/9/2011 9:30:44 AM | message detail
People take Ezio over DK? Sure DK always chokes but you know who Ezio couldn't break 60% on?

Simon Belmont.

Also am I the only one who went with Big Boss/The Boss over Samus/Ridley?
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#145 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 10/9/2011 9:40:22 AM | message detail
Well, time to come back to this topic.

Go Pokemon trainers cinderella run!
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#146 | KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2011 9:44:20 AM | message detail
Ezio got 38% on Zelda. Does DK get 38% on Zelda?
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#147 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/9/2011 9:48:35 AM | message detail

From: transience | #117
Established characters who are stronger thanks to this format -

Alucard/Dracula


I disagree. By explicitly pairing him up with Alucard, you are making it clear that this is not Count Dracula from the novel or movies, but the one specifically from SotN and nothing else. I don't think non-Castlevania fans will be voting for this pair because they like Bela Lugosi or anything. I'd imagine the two would have about the same strength as Alucard would in a 1v1, but even that could be enough to take the division.
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#148 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/9/2011 9:50:41 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #146
Ezio got 38% on Zelda. Does DK get 38% on Zelda?


Before SFF? Why not, honestly. Zelda didn't look that good in 2010. Jecht also outperformed Ezio on Zelda.
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#149 | Greyfeld | Posted 10/9/2011 10:12:26 AM | message detail
Considering Vivi went 56.29% against DK, then 55.79% against Altair, it's easy to rank the match as even, as long as you assume Ezio is at least as strong as Altair (which is a good chance, since he has more games).

DK/KRool is iconic, which shifts the match in their favor, but between DK's tendency to choke, and the fact that it's a night match (AC may not have amazing night trends, but the series was developed in europe) should shift momentum back into Ezio's favor.
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#150 | Greyfeld | Posted 10/9/2011 10:13:13 AM | message detail
Excuse me, nostalgic, not iconic.
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