GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1006
Also,
Phoenix doesn't really have high prediction percentages in 1-on-1.
Jecht was still picked by 63% of the Gurus. I know you'll say "LOL it
should've been more," but 37% picking a guy who got 47%+ isn't bad. I don't have access to Phoenix's Guru stats for 2006, but most people picking him there were picking GFNW, not Phoenix Wright. --- http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2369/mythbattlers.jpg http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png |
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Nah
it was because people liked Phoenix Wright, they just used GFNW as an
excuse, if it was someone like Bomberman Freeman would've had even more
support. Reminds me of people taking WWF No Mercy > Fire Emblem: PoR. They saw a small chance and went with it. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
Lightning Strikes posted... I explicitly didn't use 2010 Gordon because he was overrated thanks to Tifa. We all remember that Tifa/Sephiroth match, right? The dodgy one? Yeah, that's why nobody takes Gordon's 2010 strength at face value. Try reading the rest of the post rather than just looking at the numbers, dude. I said already that the point was to compare Phoenix to his previous performance, how Gordon shapes up is an unknown as there are no reliable stats. Not taking Orange Box boost into account is pretty unfair to Gordon, though. He's looked like a different character ever since the Orange Box came out, so he's easily boosted since that 2006 match. He's closer to the 2010 value than his 2006 value. --- http://pixelatedgeek.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/header-fate-zero.jpg http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
Also
that 58% on PW was based on Tifa = Vincent. You can argue that Vincent
is stronger, but that number is a lot closer to Freeman's true strength
than you give credit for. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
From: FateStayAlbion | #453 Gordon's been a weird character who's hard to gauge. Lost to Duke Nukem and nearly lost to pre-Brawl Ike in round 1 2007, beat Duke the next round easily (although still finished well behind Sub-Zero for second). Lost to Scorpion round 1 in 2008, easily beat him and Falco round 2, although way behind Vincent 53% on Peach, 38% on Tifa in 2010 (worse than Big Daddy), neither of which are extremely impressive performances. Freeman's still on the lower end of the midcard spectrum. Better than Phoenix 1-on-1, sure, but that's not what we're gauging here. Well, some people are, but I think that's shortsighted. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
Lost
to Duke Nukem and nearly lost to pre-Brawl Ike in round 1 2007, beat
Duke the next round easily (although still finished well behind Sub-Zero
for second). Orange Box came out between round 1 and 2. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
And he still lost pretty easily to Sub-Zero, a character we pretty much consider to be just a solid midcarder and not much more. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
He's
looked like a different character ever since the Orange Box came out,
so he's easily boosted since that 2006 match. He's closer to the 2010
value than his 2006 value. Um, 2006 Gordon = 2010 Gordon roughly, and if anything the 2006 version looked stronger with that match against Sora. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest! |
36% against post-KH2 Sora (46% against Mega Man) vs. 38% against Tifa At best it's pretty even. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
Yeah I don't know. People always talk about Gordon growing, but has he really? http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2541 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3825 That's about the same. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Why are we arguing Gordon vs. Phoenix still instead of Gordon vs. Alucard. imo --- Boomshine ~JC |
Oh, and there's also this comparisan from last year. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3825 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3841 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3824 Gordon ~ Ness. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Because taking Gordon over Alucard 1 v 1 would be a completely boneheaded move, let alone Alucard/Dracula. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
I think any character with games related to steam in any way will get stronger with each passing year. But GameFAQs is weird about these kinds of things, so maybe not. --- Watch me play games! http://www.livestream.com/dabu |
Ha,
as strongly as I argue Gordon/Breen over Phoenix/Edgeworth isn't really
debatable, it's because I don't trust Phoenix/Edgeworth at all.
Shepard/Saren or Alucard/Dracula are getting out of this division, and I
don't see it being remotely close otherwise. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif |
Well, according to the POTD, 20% of the voters spend more money on Steam than any other online gaming store. But let's clear up three things here: 1. Gordon beats Phoenix 1-on-1 in any format. I'm not arguing this. 2. If the voters strictly vote for the strongest character in any match (as some are arguing), then yes, Gordon will win. 3. However, if voters take rivalries and other factors into account, Phoenix has a real chance because Gordon isn't as far ahead of him as some think. In a 12-hour night match, I think it's 55/45 Gordon at best. That may be enough for him to still win anyway, but it's not as foregone of a conclusion as some think. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
LeonhartFour posted... Well, according to the POTD, 20% of the voters spend more money on Steam than any other online gaming store. But let's clear up three things here: 1. Gordon beats Phoenix 1-on-1 in any format. I'm not arguing this. 2. If the voters strictly vote for the strongest character in any match (as some are arguing), then yes, Gordon will win. 3. However, if voters take rivalries and other factors into account, Phoenix has a real chance because Gordon isn't as far ahead of him as some think. In a 12-hour night match, I think it's 55/45 Gordon at best. That may be enough for him to still win anyway, but it's not as foregone of a conclusion as some think. The problem is that both of their "Rivals" are both incredibly weak, and I don't think either one really helps the other. Are there people who would vote for Edgeworth but not Phoenix? I doubt it. Same with Breen. It just comes down to Phoenix Wright vs Gordon Freeman to me. --- http://pixelatedgeek.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/header-fate-zero.jpg http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
Tifa/Big
Daddy was right after Sephiroth/Missingno, though I don't think there
was much damage so Freeman would just be at around Big Daddy's strength. Alucard looked pretty good last year, he'll should be the favourite over either Freeman/PW. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
From: FateStayAlbion | #467 This is silly reasoning. It also assumes that people who vote Gordon over Phoenix will always vote Gordon over Phoenix in every circumstance because, apparently, there's no reason for them to change their minds and think otherwise. Because as we know from this board, nobody has played both Ace Attorney AND Half-Life. --- http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab48/Leonhart4/Squall.jpg |
Edgeworth/Breen
don't add any strength to the team, but the term rivalry benefits
PW/ME. The only question is whether at least 6% of the voters that
would take Freeman > PW in a 1v1 match would change their mind, which
would mean voters would have had to play both games (less likely
compare to other matches) and also agree to the extent of changing their
votes over a single character that they like more. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
LeonhartFour posted... From: FateStayAlbion | #467 Are there people who would vote for Edgeworth but not Phoenix? I doubt it. This is silly reasoning. It also assumes that people who vote Gordon over Phoenix will always vote Gordon over Phoenix in every circumstance because, apparently, there's no reason for them to change their minds and think otherwise. Because as we know from this board, nobody has played both Ace Attorney AND Half-Life. We just have different ideas about how this contest will go, I guess. I still feel that the strongest characters will be the ones that draw the votes, and that people really won't take the rivalries into account... because lets be honest, if you think that Phoenix/Edgeworth is a great rivalry, you're likely a Phoenix voter already. That is one thing I need to give the contest format credit for... we don't know exactly how people will vote like a normal 1v1 match. Hopefully it'll make it more unpredictable in the end. --- http://pixelatedgeek.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/header-fate-zero.jpg http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
There are also bracket voters who don't care enough about the match to really pick either side with conviction. And Phoenix/Edgey will have the bracket advantage. --- http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg |
Just like how he had the bracket advantage over Jecht because of his significant seed advantage! It'll be hilarious if Phoenix/Edgeworth get anti-voted due to being the 1-seed. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif |
From: WarThaNemesis2 | #473 There's a huge difference between being a 1 seed and being any other seed. The lowest percentage a 1 seed has ever had getting out of round 1 was Halo over Starcraft, and it still had 75% of brackets picking it. No other 1 seed has ever had less than 80%. We've had 7/15 seeds with bracket advantages over 2 seeds before. There's just something different about being a 1 seed. People don't expect the 1 seed to lose in round 1. Do I think Phoenix/Edgey will set the new low for 1 seed prediction percentage? Probably. But I'll be surprised if they have less than 60-65%. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
The
fact that Halo only had 75% is more evidence that bracket makers aren't
totally looking at seeds. Halo/Master Chief always get crazy
prediction percentages. I doubt PW breaks 60%. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
Some
bracket makers aren't always looking at seeds, no, but that's a silly
conclusion to draw that because 25% picked Starcraft, Phoenix/Edgey
won't even have 60%. Chief didn't start getting ridiculous prediction percentages until the next year anyway. He only had 75% beating Crash Bandicoot of all people in the Character Battle that year. He had 73% against Felix. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
While
the 1 seed may have kept some undecided people from choosing Starcraft,
I don't feel that seeding makes that big of a deal. Had Halo got the
16 seed I expect Halo to be easily the bracket favourite. Besides Phoenix doesn't exactly bring in the brackets. In 2008 he had 53% taking him 1st or 2nd among Bowser/Geno/Deckard. The 1 seed will give some extra points, but he's not turning anything large around. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
X vs. Zero - 133 Sub-Zero vs. Scorpion - 123 Guybrush vs. LeChuck - 96 Donkey Kong vs. King K. Rool - 96 Bartz vs. Gilgamesh - 90 Captain Falcon vs. Shadow - 66 Leon vs. Ada Wong - 63 Ezio vs. Rodrigo - 58 Total Votes: 20 Rather clear divisions, here. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
It
doesn't really matter what his past bracket history is. There's a
perception that comes with being a 1 seed. People don't pick 1 seeds to
lose round 1 in college basketball, and they don't do it in this
contest. We've already seen in the past that plenty of people overrate 1
seeds because they're 1 seeds (Dante, Sora, Kirby, etc.). It'll happen again. --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png |
While
true, but in a seedless bracket I would expect Freeman to have the
bracket advantage so even with the boost of mindless bracket makers I
don't see Phoenix breaking or getting anywhere near 70% like you are
suggesting. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
Sure
it is, Freeman got 57% in a 4/5 match in 2006 (as the 5 seed). You are
arguing that there is so much guessing/involvement in seeding that 27%
of Freeman's brackets (note mindless brackets should be split in this
case) would change their prediction had it been a 1/8 match --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
There would have been a sizable number of people who changed their brackets if Phoenix was the 1 seed instead, yes. I don't really get how you're arguing otherwise. A high percentage of people were picking Dante > Vincent and Sora > Mega Man because they were the 1 seeds. And I never said they'd get 70%. I said 60-65%. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
People also took Sarah Kerrigan over Vincent that year, so... --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif |
Mega
Man is a poster boy for low bracket support on strong characters and
Vincent had only 75% winning over Kerrigan and Dante has always had
decent bracket support anyways. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
Vincent had 75% in round 1 as the lower seed in a supposedly debatable match and dropped to 25% in round 2. FFVII generally has great bracket support, and yet it dropped by 50% because Vincent faced the 1 seed. There's no other reason for it to drop THAT sharply. Dante's history of high bracket support isn't really there at that time. He had 53% beating Ratchet, Tails, Viewtiful Joe. That's not a power pack. And yet he probably has more than that beating Vincent Valentine from FFVII. --- http://images.cheezburger.com/completestore/2011/8/22/2094c2de-bae8-4f5b-9f27-67eaff0aaeaf.jpg |
Screw a sig bet. I think you are dead wrong. Do you want to put your account where your fingers are? Not going to happen. How am I dead wrong? You think casuals will look at the contest, think hard on what characters have a better rivalry, then vote for them? --- Calling Pokemon RBY a top 10 game was the most insane contest jibba-jabba ever Woe unto he who sig bets with the near-invincible Lord High creativename |
Well
if you combine Dante's bracket support and Vincent's bad bracket
support you get that. 40% against Ganondorf and 62% against Zelda/The
Boss/Tails (Zelda had 82%). It takes him until his fourth contest to
get respectable prediction percentages. In 2002 and 2003 you could argue that Dante had more brackets than Crono and Ryu, though in Crono's case that isn't hard to do (Yoshi too in 2006). Not sure what happened in 2004. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
There's nothing bad about 40% against Ganondorf. Zelda is the best of the best when it comes to prediction percentage. But it's also fairly easy to argue that Dante overperformed on Vincent and Sora overperformed on Mega Man because of their 1 seed and bracket advantages. Neither of them has performed up to that level since. --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png |
It's
not very good for a match that was considered very debatable. You can
have Dante though I've already agreed that there is some inflation and
still don't see it being as bad as to make PW reach the numbers you
predict (a 20% shift), but Mega Man has always been terrible with
brackets and besides seeding doesn't matter as much in a 1v2 match. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
XxSoulxX posted... Screw a sig bet. I think you are dead wrong. Do you want to put your account where your fingers are? Not going to happen. How am I dead wrong? You think casuals will look at the contest, think hard on what characters have a better rivalry, then vote for them? To an extent. I don't think they'll think hard about it, but then I don't think people think hard about who the better character is (thus why mutes go so far in the contests) either. I believe the voters aren't morons, that they will see the name of the contest and vote accordingly. "Blue was a real douche in RBY, I'm voting for Red/Blue". Or in any case, enough people will to fundamentally alter the results and make it significantly different from your usual character battle. And come on. Account bet me on the match. You have an alt, don't you? --- http://www.motifake.com/image/demotivational-poster/small/0810/colonel-metal-gear-solid-snake-colonel-demotivational-poster-1223416269.jpg |
From: Haste_2 | #382 Hi! --- My Japanese alter-ego. Hey all this is Bartz btw. |
Hmmm...So
which rivalry do we think has the biggest difference between the two
characters in terms of their contest strength? Speaking indirectly, of
course, not in terms of who would SFF who the worst, because I think we
know the answer to that one. Potential candidates: Link/Ganondorf Ezio/Rodrigo Luigi/Waluigi Samus/Ridley Mega Man/Wily Sonic/Robotnik Freeman/Breen Crono/Lavos B.J./Hitler And on the other end of the spectrum, which rivalry do we think has the two most evenly matched characters in terms of contest strength? Potential candidates: Terra/Kefka Chris Redfield/Wesker Tidus/Jecht Frog/Magus Lloyd/Kratos --- http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/8516/whatisdesiresig.gif |
Jecht is clearly stronger then Tidus. --- When you've got a pretty-boy monkey on your back constantly calling you a puppet, you hardly want to seem like you're happy to be used. - DSakaCharanJ |
I don't really see the "clearly" part, but feel free to show why you think so. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Tidus
not making it past round one 8 times, Jecht making to round 3 first
time he was here? The implication seem relatively clear to me. --- When you've got a pretty-boy monkey on your back constantly calling you a puppet, you hardly want to seem like you're happy to be used. - DSakaCharanJ |
Tidus has made it past round 1 several times, actually. But Tidus probably would've made it to round three if he had Jecht's path, and I doubt Jecht gets any further than Tidus does with the same paths he's had in all his contest appearances. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Soul such a chicken Also yeah I'd have thought Tidus > Jecht, not that it matters. Both going down. --- http://i45.tinypic.com/2jdhsno.gif Dr. Football |
Tidus/Jecht > Big Boss/The Boss --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Squall/Seifer > Link/Ganon --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
