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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1006

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#1 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/8/2011 6:04:55 AM | message detail | (edited)
FF Characters that Bartz will have won more contest matches than: Cecil, Golbez, Kain, Rydia, Celes, Ultros, Midgar Zolom, Kuja, Sin, Vaan, Balthier (technically), Lightning

Am I forgetting anyone?

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/8/2011 7:14:23 AM | message detail
XD
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#3 | pjbasis | Posted 10/8/2011 7:15:04 AM | message detail
And it was Good.
#4 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 10/8/2011 7:17:37 AM | message detail
I just realized Kuja's actually going to win one.

Then again, Seymour's probably going to lose his, so it all evens out.
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#5 | SuperAngelo128 | Posted 10/8/2011 10:10:28 AM | message detail
hello
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#6 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/8/2011 10:11:57 AM | message detail
Should have rallied Fighter/Garland or Fighter/Black Mage
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352
#7 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/8/2011 10:12:46 AM | message detail
How is Fighter/Black Mage a rivalry?
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#8 | Greyfeld | Posted 10/8/2011 10:13:26 AM | message detail
Somebody needs to read 8-bit theater.
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#9 | HaRRicH | Posted 10/8/2011 10:16:05 AM | message detail
Revolver was six years ago when Metal Gear was a shadow of what it was today and Ness was with Mewtwo in the poll.

Revolver was almost unanimously the favorite anyway, and Pac-Man beat Ness hard enough to remain the favorite; Ness was closer to Travis Touchdown by the end of it.
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#10 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 10/8/2011 10:21:34 AM | message detail
Ah, but the question is, is it really Bartz who's winning that match, or is it Gilgamesh? Now, maybe I'm underestimating FFV fans (it's on my list of upcoming games to play, I swear), but with Gilgamesh's penchant for hilariously hammy lines and the fact that he keeps showing up in other games, I just get the feeling he might be the strongest character from FFV, which would make it just the second game (I think) where the strongest character is an antagonist.

Incidentally, the first such game is also a Final Fantasy game. (Come on, for all of his well-publicized flops, you've got to admit that Kefka's the strongest FFVI character in GameFAQs contests, right? Well, okay, maybe not; it's tough to tell since the game really hasn't gotten all that much representation. Terra's 2-3; Kefka's 5-7. Kefka padded his resume with Villains Contest wins, but Terra had a Female Bracket win so her record might be a bit padded as well. So I'm not really sure what to think.)

Uh...well, since I obviously have no clue what I'm talking about anymore, let's just agree that Bartz/Gilgamesh is picking up the win.
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#11 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 10/8/2011 10:22:24 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Should have rallied Fighter/Garland or Fighter/Black Mage

I actually was going to do Warrior of Light/Garland, but it got edged out by other things. I'm pretty sure it was in the database, though.
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#12 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/8/2011 10:25:16 AM | message detail
They're against Guybrush, I think that settles it.
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#13 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2011 10:32:39 AM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #009
and Pac-Man beat Ness hard enough to remain the favorite


No, he didn't. That was an SFF beatdown for Mewtwo.

Pac-Man beats Crash, but it won't be by more than 55/45 unless there's some sort of weird SFF involved. Pac-Man doesn't come close to beating Ryu Hayabusa.

I don't think anybody cares about one individual Pac-Man ghost. It's about the trio. If it were Pac-Man vs. all three ghosts here, I think Pac-Man would take it. Just one? Ehhhh.

I think Crash has a real chance. I don't know if I'll pick him, but his chances are better than I wager most people will give him.
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#14 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/8/2011 10:33:25 AM | message detail
Going to drop this message into this topic, if anyone wants to comment on it:

LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/8/2011 5:32:27 AM | message detail
It's somewhat amazing how quickly the site traffic on GameFAQs declined. Just a year and a half ago, we were still getting over 100000 votes on non-contest polls. Now we are struggling just to break 60000 votes. It seems like 60000 votes is the new "100000" these days. Our highest votal of this year was 89202, which was on an age poll. But that was early in the year, when average votals were around 65000, due to MvC3 and Pokemon B/W bringing in more visitors.

There's definitely more to the traffic decline than Wikis and Youtube being used more heavily for game help. I think there has to be other factors that went into the quick decline in traffic.



From the previous topic:

IngmarBirdman | Posted 10/8/2011 11:32:44 AM | message detail
Do we have any speculation about the falling votals of late and whether the scale-back is equal across demographics? I'm curious if the site loses enough traffic, then maybe 90's games that are down-trending could reverse the process because more people that comprise the core of the site stick around and support these games / characters who were slightly stronger in earlier polls.


Although the average age of our voters has been increasing over the past several years, it hasn't had any effect on votals. Remember that we were still getting over 100000 votes last year on non-contest polls at a time where the average age was about 21 1/2 and only about 23% of the site was under the age of 18.

What I've noticed was when votals began to collapse last year, the percentage of votes from North America began to decrease in favor of an increased percentage of votes from Europe. Percentage of votes from each continent during the past 3 years:

Year | Africa | Asia | Oceania | Europe | North/South America
2009 | 0.10% | 2.77% | 2.56% | 14.65% | 77.81% | 2.10%
2010 | 0.12% | 3.10% | 2.63% | 14.92% | 76.87% | 2.37%
2011 | 0.14% | 3.07% | 2.71% | 15.46% | 76.34% | 2.28%

2009 has a whole had nearly 78% of the votes from North America, but now that's getting close to 76% right now. Europe is gaining more dominance in the polls, but I think that's because the drop off in votals was because traffic from North America decreased by a greater amount relative to any drop off in traffic from Europe.
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#15 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/8/2011 10:35:17 AM | message detail
I don't think anybody cares about one individual Pac-Man ghost. It's about the trio. If it were Pac-Man vs. all three ghosts here, I think Pac-Man would take it. Just one? Ehhhh.

4 ghosts actually, but you have a point.
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#16 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2011 10:38:40 AM | message detail
There are four? Man, it's been too long since I've played Pac-Man

Inky, Blinky, Clyde, and...who am I forgetting?
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#17 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/8/2011 10:39:01 AM | message detail
I don't feel Neo Cortex will be adding much to the poll either.
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352
#18 | pjbasis | Posted 10/8/2011 10:40:37 AM | message detail
I thought one of the ghosts was named Sally or something feminine like that.

Also, I had Chris vs. Wesker > Bosses.
That's bad, right?
#19 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2011 10:40:50 AM | message detail
Probably not.

I just feel like everyone's taking Pac-Man without giving Crash any consideration, and I think he's got SOME chance there. Pac-Man is low midcard and Crash is high fodder.
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#20 | XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2011 10:41:28 AM | message detail
Bartz and Gilgamesh aren't winning, lmao

>_>
#21 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2011 10:42:17 AM | message detail
LOL Guybrush
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#22 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/8/2011 10:45:02 AM | message detail
I want to say the last ghost's name is Pinky, but don't quote me on it.

http://ui12.gamefaqs.com/491/gfs_35380_2_1.jpg
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#23 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/8/2011 10:46:30 AM | message detail
#24 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 10/8/2011 10:56:04 AM | message detail
In that case Luster, with EU's gradual increase in vote % it sounds like CT will continue its small decline but FF might hold its ground.

I have to admit there are several pairings I did not see coming. DK and K. Rool? Vyse and Galcian? Guybrush and wha... ? I'd give a lot to see Mew Mewtwo plow through the Southwest.
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#25 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2011 10:57:20 AM | message detail
Vyse and Galcian had a B8 rally, so that's not really surprising.
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#26 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 10/8/2011 11:03:16 AM | message detail
Strange theme for contest though.Who thought of that?
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#27 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/8/2011 11:05:09 AM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
I obviously have no clue what I'm talking about anymore

You don't say.
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#28 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/8/2011 11:06:34 AM | message detail
No one suggested the idea to Bacon. However, the contest theme is somewhat similar to the "Tag Team Character Battle" that several people suggested in this topic:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/11-sballin/60143217

At least this contest means that each tag team actually means something, instead of having 2 teams of 2 characters facing off against each other in a match.
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#29 | SuperAngelo128 | Posted 10/8/2011 11:09:48 AM | message detail
yeah my guess is that Tag team stuck out to him but it's kinda hard toeither get people to nominate siilar tag team ideas or to have him think of tag teams himself

rivalries keep the teams in-series and the fanbases stay for one team based on the series to act like like a regular character battle
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#30 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/8/2011 11:14:21 AM | message detail
As far as tag-teams go, I actually think the rivals aspect isn't a terrible take on it. The problem is, that tag-teams are a terrible idea to begin with.

Being a good implementation of a bad idea does not really make the rivals contest a good idea.
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#31 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2011 11:15:15 AM | message detail

From: Ultimaphazon | #030
As far as tag-teams go, I actually think the rivals aspect isn't a terrible take on it. The problem is, that tag-teams are a terrible idea to begin with.

Being a good implementation of a bad idea does not really make the rivals contest a good idea.


Pretty much this.
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#32 | XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2011 11:18:04 AM | message detail
I always liked the idea of two matches per "match", total votes win.

Rivalry idea is cool with me. Don't hate it, especially now I've seen the bracket
#33 | ffmasterjose | Posted 10/8/2011 11:29:01 AM | message detail
I'm probably going to lose a point, but I had to pick Crash and Cortex over Pac-Man and a ghost. Aside from growing up and playing every Crash game, I just cant trust Pac-Man. He's let me down too many times :(
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#34 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2011 11:29:47 AM | message detail
So when do we start Guru signups anyway?
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#35 | charmander6000 | Posted 10/8/2011 11:32:32 AM | message detail
I think we've stopped signups and Ngamer just posts a topic on the last day.
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#36 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/8/2011 11:47:59 AM | message detail
Actually, Pac-Man has done the unexpected most of the time. He only really lost a close match to Kefka.
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#37 | ZFS | Posted 10/8/2011 11:54:41 AM | message detail
I have no problem with this contest! Beats another round of standard character battles.
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#38 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 10/8/2011 12:05:45 PM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
I always liked the idea of two matches per "match", total votes win.

Rivalry idea is cool with me. Don't hate it, especially now I've seen the bracket


Except how often would people split their votes? Most people would probably vote the same game's character for both matches.

Anyway, I came back into this topic when I saw some discussion about the potential Round 3 between Samus/Ridley and Big Boss/The Boss and noticed that the 2010 X-Stats actually have Ridley > Big Boss straight-up.

I'm pretty sure nobody would actually take that. LOL X-Stats indeed. (The adjusted X-Stats agree with this, giving Big Boss the win with 58.52% whereas the raw X-Stats have Ridley with 50.33%). The source is obvious, too--Ridley ended up losing directly to Cloud, whereas Big Boss lost directly to Mario. That gives both of them just 2 degrees of losing from the champ, but Mario gets SFFed to hell by Link while Cloud doesn't.
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#39 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/8/2011 12:07:25 PM | message detail
Honestly, I'd prefer a vanilla 64-character, 24-hour, no-gimmick character battle to any other contest type at this point. It's been what, 6 years since we've had one?
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#40 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/8/2011 12:08:27 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
XIII_rocks posted...
I always liked the idea of two matches per "match", total votes win.

Rivalry idea is cool with me. Don't hate it, especially now I've seen the bracket

Except how often would people split their votes? Most people would probably vote the same game's character for both matches.

Anyway, I came back into this topic when I saw some discussion about the potential Round 3 between Samus/Ridley and Big Boss/The Boss and noticed that the 2010 X-Stats actually have Ridley > Big Boss straight-up.

I'm pretty sure nobody would actually take that. LOL X-Stats indeed. (The adjusted X-Stats agree with this, giving Big Boss the win with 58.52% whereas the raw X-Stats have Ridley with 50.33%). The source is obvious, too--Ridley ended up losing directly to Cloud, whereas Big Boss lost directly to Mario. That gives both of them just 2 degrees of losing from the champ, but Mario gets SFFed to hell by Link while Cloud doesn't.


Samus isn't going anywhere. No NN team is going to lose to a non-NN team this year.
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#41 | ZFS | Posted 10/8/2011 12:13:26 PM | message detail
There's nothing you could do to make me excited about a normal character contest. You can try to make as vanilla as possible, but it's still going to be everything we've seen a million times before. The ideal contest right now, for me, is games without generational divides.
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#42 | XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2011 12:17:10 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Honestly, I'd prefer a vanilla 64-character, 24-hour, no-gimmick character battle to any other contest type at this point. It's been what, 6 years since we've had one?

Even 2005 had the ToC and Clinkeroth excluded so it's 7.

Long time. I think the 24-hour ship has sailed though, personally. At least for a little while longer.

Except how often would people split their votes? Most people would probably vote the same game's character for both matches.

Probably, but it'd be the times they wouldn't that would be the most interesting. In any given bracket most matches aren't that interesting, unless the concept is entirely new, and even then.
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#43 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2011 12:17:58 PM | message detail
Well, we're getting 24 hour matches for half the contest, so that's a fair compromise.
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#44 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 10/8/2011 1:04:02 PM | message detail
Kirby trolling us out of finally getting a Mario/Sonic match would be hilarious, but I doubt it happens. More than anything else, Sonic has given people some reason to not despair at the thought of him getting more games - something that was not the case last contest.
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#45 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2011 1:04:47 PM | message detail
Kirby/Meta Knight losing to Jill/Nemesis is more likely than them beating Sonic/Robotnik, I think.
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#46 | vcharon | Posted 10/8/2011 1:13:22 PM | message detail
There are seriously people that think Guybrush will ever win a match?
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#47 | XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2011 1:13:53 PM | message detail
vcharon posted...
There are seriously people that think Guybrush will ever win a match?

I believe in Guybrush!

(I don't)
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#48 | vcharon | Posted 10/8/2011 1:16:59 PM | message detail
I'm pretty confident in saying Guybrush/LeChuck are the weakest in the entire field, though seeing them vs. Kid/Guy might be interesting. I still think the latter wins, based on their hokey names if nothing else.
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#49 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/8/2011 1:19:17 PM | message detail
Unless I missed Chief somehow, I just realized that Suikoden II got more nominations than anything from Halo.
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#50 | LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2011 1:20:36 PM | message detail
Well, Master Chief doesn't have a singular rival.
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