GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1003
Whether
it makes sense or not, Link/Ganon will not lose to Cloud/Seph in the
finals, and will not lose to anything else (Mario/Sonic being the only
exception) before then. The best case scenario for a non-Zelda winner is
to put Link in Cloud/Seph's section of the bracket and hope for the
best. If they meet early, Square probably has a better shot. I have to differ here. Link's never beaten Cloud because it was the finals before, it's always been because he was just stronger. A match between #1 and #2 is the match that will be least impacted by upset bandwagons and the like, because almost everyone is already on one of the sides. Plus, people HAVE finally realized that Link always wins. Cloud was above 45% in the first 60 seconds on Link last year- going by previous years trends he should have won easily. He finished 1.5% above where he was 60 seconds into the match. --- 90s games > 00s games |
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The
big FF entries just look notably worse after 2010. Sephiroth was
letting same-game peeps (ones he should be doubling) hit the mid-40s,
and then he lost easily to Snake. Link definitely wasn't getting the
type of beatdowns that made him stupid crazy back in 2004, but he picked
his game up at the end and mauled Sonic/Mario while Cloud was
struggling with his own N9 comp. Cloud also looked far worse against
Ridley than Link did in any single match, and that's not even counting
GotD, when FFX dropped the ball against a Zelda game it probably would
have beaten a month before. It's been six long years since Square
caught a break. It would seem like they'd have a good shot here with two
top-five characters paired together, but nothing is gonna bring out the
anti-votes quite like Cloud and Sephiroth occupying the same voting
option, especially late in the game. Switching topics, I'm guessing this has been already discussed, but this would have been a great contest to let the fictional cats in. Rivalries are the freakin' realm of comic books and epic movies. Hell, The Simpsons alone could have fielded two or three good ones. Instead, we're left wondering whether Mario and Sonic will be a team and... that's about all. --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
We
should have some interesting lower level battles too, and they should
matter if the battle contest is still in effect as well. X/Zero could have a neat run too. Tidus/Jecht could be surprisingly strong too, if my "voters will vote for rivalries and not just characters" theory holds up, though I imagine the effect would get much weaker for weaker characters anyway. |
Well,
I think the reason Cloud/Seph looked weaker than Link is simply that
they were weaker than Link. Link was getting anti-voted almost as hard;
he looked stronger because he was stronger. And Cloud made the final
quite respectable. The story of 2010 was Clinkeroth's fall back toward
the field, and since Link started out further ahead, he wasn't in actual
danger of losing to the field. My point is that I don't think it matters whether the match is early or late in the contest; any boost Link/Ganon may get over Cloud/Seph for the match being the final would be minimal. If it's close I don't doubt that they would take the rallying pretty easily though. I wish we could have cross-series rivalries, although it would pose the problem of Link/Cloud absolutely crushing everything. --- 90s games > 00s games |
pjbasis | Posted 9/26/2011 2:54:38 AM | message detail | quote We should have some interesting lower level battles too, and they should matter if the battle contest is still in effect as well. X/Zero could have a neat run too. I would assume that the Battle Challenge will return again this year, in addition to the standard Bracket Challenge. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
From: red sox 777 | #097 And yet the site rallied for a Zelda game to win GOTD! And I wouldn't say "Nothing" happened in Snake/Sephiroth or Snake/Cloud. Snake doesn't have that kind of early vote against most people. It's the same sort of early vote he had in the finals in 2008, although not quite as potent because it was 1-on-1 and not 4-ways. --- Support Otacon (Metal Gear Solid) for Character Battle IX! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/1950/banner4otacon.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/26/2011 3:00:36 AM | message detail | quote Snake doesn't have that kind of early vote against most people. Yeah, Snake was actually losing the early vote to Nintendo characters in the early rounds of the last Character Battle. He even lost the early vote to Proto Man, but he did win it over Squall, Sephiroth, and Cloud. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
And yet the site rallied for a Zelda game to win GOTD! The other option was Brawl. The site rallied AGAINST Brawl. And I wouldn't say "Nothing" happened in Snake/Sephiroth or Snake/Cloud. Snake doesn't have that kind of early vote against most people. It's the same sort of early vote he had in the finals in 2008, although not quite as potent because it was 1-on-1 and not 4-ways. Not at all. Seph went up slower against Snake than against Tifa. Cloud actually went down substantially on the 2nd update, and was at 49% or thereabouts by the end of the Power Hour. Totally different from 2008. Anyone has a good early vote when they're up against Cloud or Sephiroth. But in 2010, Cloud/Seph didn't do as badly with it against Snake as normal. --- 90s games > 00s games |
Tidus/Jecht isn't even a good rivalry! --- peace comes from within |
From: red sox 777 | #108 It rallied against FFX first. Because FF always wins, we can't have that. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
There's
no evidence it rallied/bandwagoned against FFX, other than a few
hundred votes it may have gotten from rallies during the day. The two
games were just evenly matched to start. --- 90s games > 00s games |
I
would agree there is an ingrained thought in voters on here that "Final
Fantasy always wins," regardless of the fact it almost never wins. I'm
not sure why that is -- maybe Final Fantasy isn't perceived as
being justified in its popularity here -- but it's definitely there. You
get some "Nintendo always wins" occasionally, but never to the degree
of FF. --- peace comes from within |
From: red sox 777 | #111 Which is enough to change the result. Because FF can't win. Majora didn't need a huge rally to beat Brawl either. --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png |
Dunno
about whether it would have changed the result or not, but it doesn't
matter. MM and FFX are equals, regardless of who won a very close
match. There's a big difference between the late-game bandwagon wave we've been discussing here and small-time rallying that happens during a match. Frog getting 400 extra votes in the last hour doesn't indicate any bandwagon at all. That kind of rallying cannot impact anything other than a match that is already essentially 50/50. Half of MM's final victory margin came from the first hour, IIRC. Brawl outright won the 2nd half of the match. So it did have the trends to show a bandwagon. Though it may not have been very large, yeah. MM might even have been able to win without it, for all we know. All of which goes to show that the site did not "rally for a Zelda game" to win. --- 90s games > 00s games |
The
site still pretty clearly rallies against FFVII though. You already
said so yourself. Everybody does well against Cloud and Sephiroth early
in a match. --- Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX! http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8463/banner2squirtle.jpg |
Good point to bring up how Ganondorf being much weaker than Sephiroth is a sure sign of their upcoming weakness! |
and yet you champion mario/bowser, which is worse by every measure --- peace comes from within |
And as of 2010, the site now does the same thing to Link! Link was 50/50 with Sonic through 100+ votes.....and ended over 70%. Next, Link was at 58% on Mario at the freeze....and ended at 64.5%. Those are increases on par with Cloud. And as they would predict, when Link did face Cloud his early vote was only marginally better. Which is why Link/Ganon is not going to win this because it's the final and people are thinking, "FF always wins." If it's going to win, it's going to win because it's flat out stronger. --- 90s games > 00s games |
The
site did the same thing to most of the Noble Nine. That wasn't
exclusive to Link. We saw underperformances from our heavy hitters
throughout that contest. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Uh,
we didn't, actually. Clinkeroth looked closer to the field in the
early rounds......and they were closer to the field in later rounds when
they got to face the heavy hitters! If you want to argue Mario/Bowser over Cloud/Sephiroth due to desire for an upset, go ahead, but it's not a factor with Link/Ganon. We don't need to excuse all of Final Fantasy's defeats as the product of anti-voting. It's just flat out weaker now than it used to be. --- 90s games > 00s games |
Also, Link didn't come anywhere close to a huge swing like what Cloud/Sephiroth get from the freeze to their peak hours. Don't give me any of this "Link/Sonic was 50/50 through 100 votes and Link ended over 70%" stuff. Link already had 69% by the time we got to the freeze. His best hour in that match was a little over 72% and his worst was 68%. Compare it to Cloud/Captain Falcon. Cloud had 58.91% against Captain Falcon at the freeze. Under 60% against Captain Falcon. Not Mario. Captain Falcon. And Cloud finished that match with nearly 70%. "Increases on par with Cloud" my foot. It's not anywhere close. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
ZFS posted... and yet you champion mario/bowser, which is worse by every measure The intangibility of a rivalry contest greatly benefits this match up. Though I have to say it might also do the same for Cloud and Sephiroth. I really don't think Link and Ganondorf have a chance. |
Go compare Link/Mario and Cloud/Samus. Link went up about 1% less from the freeze to noon. 5% vs. 6%. Link's increase in the Sonic was in fact meteoric (and yes, on par with Cloud/Captain Falcon measuring from the first 30 seconds). Link just did most of his increasing early in the match. And Link obviously still has a better early vote than Cloud. But last year it was pretty close. Those are the facts. Cloud went up 1.5% from a minute in to the end on Link directly. Traditionally it is more like 8%. A point about the best hour/worst hour thing: the reason the gap is so huge for Cloud is that his best hour is in the dead zone when we're getting almost no votes. Link's best hour is in the ASV, when we're getting several times as many votes. --- 90s games > 00s games |
From: red sox 777 | #123 Which is irrelevant because it's such a small sample. Oh no the site realizes Link always wins for 30 seconds and then we're back to business as usual. I'm not arguing Link isn't getting anti-voted or anything like that. We saw a drastic decrease in huge blowouts across the board in 2010 (So much so that we coined the term Anti-BlowoutFAQs for most of the contests because we saw like 3-4 matches total that finished over 80%). But it's not to the extent Cloud is. I mean, you want to argue small sample sizes like 30 seconds to a minute when it's still a large part of the board's influence on the match. 2006 - Cloud/Link at the freeze: Link with 58.34%; Cloud/Link at the end: Link with 53.93%; Difference - 4.41% 2010 - Cloud/Link at the freeze: Link with 57.44%; Cloud/Link at the end: Link with 53.54%; Difference - 3.90% You're overblowing how badly Link is getting anti-voted by using such a small sample size. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
And lost in all this is that Link's wins against Sonic and Mario weren't even good performances. Link scored less on Mario in 2010 than in either 2008 match. It was a fair performance, in line with past results, but nothing that should have been unexpectedly good. And Sonic? Sephiroth got 64% on Sonic the year before. Link is stronger, and you can expect SFF in that one. Link put 67% on a much stronger Mega Man in 2004. What's so impressive about 70% on Sonic, other than the novelty of seeing a Noble Niner held below 30%? Unimpressive by Link standards. --- 90s games > 00s games |
The intangibility of a rivalry contest greatly benefits this match up. Mario/Bowser is a more classic rivalry than Link/Ganon, much in the same way Mario is a more classic character than Link, but it isn't the better rivalry. I think Mario/Bowser would do well, better than most would expect, but it's not because the rivalry itself is something interesting. --- peace comes from within |
FFVII
had a good day vote back in 2006. It's tanked pretty far since then.
Cloud was like 2% ahead of 2006 trends IIRC in the morning, but he gave
most of it back during the day with his newfound bad day vote. That
makes that comparison misleading. Also, remember that there are other things driving the early vote beside anti-votes (for example, that the early vote is overwhelmingly from North America where Zelda dominates and FF is bad). Link would have to be anti-voted much harder than Cloud to actually have as bad an early vote as he does. --- 90s games > 00s games |
The
way I see it, people are either going to vote for the story driven
interesting rivals, which would benefit Cloud/Seph, or the Nintendo fans
would vote for the most classic one; Mario and Bowser. Link/Ganon has no place in this. |
And
let me ask you: are you arguing that Cloud is really stronger than
46.5% on Link but that he underperformed in that final? You can't have
it both ways; Link can't have not fallen AND overperformed on Cloud. --- 90s games > 00s games |
pjbasis posted... The way I see it, people are either going to vote for the story driven interesting rivals, which would benefit Cloud/Seph, or the Nintendo fans would vote for the most classic one; Mario and Bowser. Link/Ganon has no place in this. Ha, that's silly. If you wanna go with it, though, feel free! --- peace comes from within |
Unless I hear some good arguments other than Zeldafear. |
I wish we could have cross-series rivalries, although it would pose the problem of Link/Cloud absolutely crushing everything. Honest question: In a battle of Board 8 lore, which rivalry would win Link/Cloud vs Mario/Crono? |
On Board 8, Mario/Crono wins easily, but sitewide, Link/Cloud crushes. --- 90s games > 00s games |
god
i'm actually coming up with trouble nominating 15 things and i've
already exhausted the joke possibilities. this contest is truly terrible --- Jon Thomson - HKP: 179, 180's: 2, top kill: 152 gg Black Turtle |
^
I posted a link way back on the first page that lists all of the
possible nominations that GameFAQs recognizes. You can nominate
anything that GameFAQs doesn't recognize, although it will give you
suggestions on what to nominate. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
I
really don't think Link/Ganon is going to be the big favourite like
some of you are expecting... Believe it or not, I think voters do have a
little bit of common sense and will recognize the fact that their
"rivalry" isn't that big. They're in with a shot, but it's far from a
lock. --- Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore "Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..." |
-LusterSoldier- posted... ^ I posted a link way back on the first page that lists all of the possible nominations that GameFAQs recognizes. You can nominate anything that GameFAQs doesn't recognize, although it will give you suggestions on what to nominate. hmm, slotted in another four from that. thing is that said list has a lot of duplication of characters (eg sonic/knuckles and sonic/robotnik, who on earth would vote for the first one), terrible options (cj/tenpenny lol really), a ton of rpg stuff that i'm ambivalent to, and obvious stuff that's always going to get in. oh well, as i said, terrible contest --- Jon Thomson - HKP: 179, 180's: 2, top kill: 152 gg Black Turtle |
I
might have considered Cloud / Sephiroth under normal circumstances. But
these aren't normal circumstances; sure Skyward Sword is the least
hyped console Zelda ever, and Ganondorf won't even be in it, but I still
think its release makes Link / Ganondorf basically a lock. --- "I am SO gonna kick your ass!" - "No, no, no, no, no. I'm gonna kick YOUR ass!" Nominate Yuri Lowell / Flynn Scifo |
red sox 777 posted... Dunno about whether it would have changed the result or not, but it doesn't matter. MM and FFX are equals, regardless of who won a very close match. There's a big difference between the late-game bandwagon wave we've been discussing here and small-time rallying that happens during a match. Frog getting 400 extra votes in the last hour doesn't indicate any bandwagon at all. That kind of rallying cannot impact anything other than a match that is already essentially 50/50. Half of MM's final victory margin came from the first hour, IIRC. Brawl outright won the 2nd half of the match. So it did have the trends to show a bandwagon. Though it may not have been very large, yeah. MM might even have been able to win without it, for all we know. All of which goes to show that the site did not "rally for a Zelda game" to win. False. Majora got an offsite rally, as a big Zelda site linked here. We went over this during GotD. So yeah, it advanced against FFX because it wasn't gonna let Meg Ryan break the LAW. --- Currently playing: League of Legends, Chrono Cross. Current Projects: Fool's Overture, CYOA: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60143513 |
Calling Tidus Meg Ryan again? This is getting old. --- Nominate Cosmos and Chaos for the Rivalry Contest. |
pjbasis posted... Unless I hear some good arguments other than Zeldafear. Zeldafear is a good enough argument as it is. And why are people bringing up "Common sense?" This is not "Is GameFAQs smart enough to choose the better rivalry?" When I consider Link/Ganondorf the most likely winner, it isn't because I think voters are drones (doesn't it sound a little arrogant to make an argument along the lines of "Because <x> is the actual better option"?). I simply think there are more Zelda fans than Final Fantasy fans and the people who like both aren't likely to favor Cloud/Sephiroth at a majority rate enough to close the increasing gap between the series. No way I'm putting personal preference in this. --- *is Dranze* |
If
you're reasoning is as simple as "There are more Zelda fans than FF
fans" then surely you'd also be picking stuff like Ganon > Seph or
whatever. --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
Kotetsu534 posted... If you're reasoning is as simple as "There are more Zelda fans than FF fans" then surely you'd also be picking stuff like Ganon > Seph or whatever. And why wouldn't I reason it as that? Of course, that reasoning loses its validity when you're talking about single entities, but we're talking about the top representatives for both series here. --- *is Dranze* |
(doesn't it sound a little arrogant to make an argument along the lines of "Because <x> is the actual better option"?) Well a silent protagonist has dominated these contests for almost a decade, so... I'm not saying all Link voters are drones by any means but come on now. --- http://i.imgur.com/LjoWT.png |
Ultimaphazon posted... I might have considered Cloud / Sephiroth under normal circumstances. But these aren't normal circumstances; sure Skyward Sword is the least hyped console Zelda ever, and Ganondorf won't even be in it, but I still think its release makes Link / Ganondorf basically a lock. Damn, I didn't even consider Skyward Sword. Lame. --- http://www.mariocube.nl/upload/XIII1008171346.jpg |
From: red sox 777 | #129 I didn't say anything about overperforming on Cloud. Cloud getting anti-voted like crazy is part of his natural strength. He still gets anti-voted way worse than Link, and that's the point. Yes, Link may underperform for the first 30 seconds to a minute, but that's because the people who are there to vote right when the poll opens are the people who are most aware that Link Always Wins and are sick of the LAW, so they will vote accordingly. --- Support Otacon (Metal Gear Solid) for Character Battle IX! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/1950/banner4otacon.jpg |
Solid Snake/Big Boss would probably make some noise as well. Then again Snake seems to be paired up with a bunch of people. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest. |
Yeah, there's no telling what MGS pairings we'll get. I'd like to see Snake/Big Boss, but we'll probably end up with Solid/Liquid and hopefully Big Boss/The Boss. --- Support Otacon (Metal Gear Solid) for Character Battle IX! http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/1950/banner4otacon.jpg |
Kanzari: The match was 50/50 either way. The games are statistical equals. Leon: Cloud's anti-voting is indeed part of his natural strength, which is why it doesn't matter if he faces Link early or late in the contest. And I'm sorry, but Link's trends were definitely shifted last year. They're not the same as Cloud's, but the site is becoming aware. --- 90s games > 00s games |
From: red sox 777 | #149 Why are you apologizing? I admitted Link was weaker last year. I don't agree it's to Cloud and Sephiroth's extent though. Sephiroth/Tifa was 50/50 at the freeze. I doubt you'd see Link/Snake going 50/50 at the freeze. So yes, Link is weaker, but not enough for it to even matter, and I doubt it'll matter for this contest because even if he does get anti-voted, the only people who can beat him still get anti-voted worse. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view/593815/frasier-and-niles-dance-o.gif |
