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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1001

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#251 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 10:40:23 PM | message detail
I for one welcome our new hedgehog overlords
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#252 | pjbasis | Posted 8/28/2011 10:41:06 PM | message detail
Sephiroth wasn't on any portable KH huh?

Sick
#253 | swirIdude | Posted 8/28/2011 10:41:22 PM | message detail
I only welcome Sonic. Shadow and Silver and whatever other re-colors they invited can get the hell out.
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#254 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 10:41:55 PM | message detail

From: pjbasis | #252
Sephiroth wasn't on any portable KH huh?

Sick


Nope. Unless he was in Re: Coded or something. I know he wasn't in CoM or 358/2 Days.
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#255 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2011 10:42:19 PM | message detail
He's still got a history, though. Aeris and Zero were killers back in the day, and Sonic withstood both tests. Tifa scared the hell out of everyone before Sonic made us look like worrying fools. Vincent/Ganon was a legit popular upset against Sonic, and he handled that one as well. People had him losing to both Ganon and Kirby last year, and he endured yet again despite an awful first match against Lightning.

It doesn't seem like he'll lose to any Nintendo rep outside the Big 3, and I wouldn't give any non-Square (say, Dante) a real shot either. Squall and Auron are his biggest tests. Of those two, I'd only really consider giving Squall the win. I think Sonic runs it back vs Auron.
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#256 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/28/2011 10:42:22 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
I just want to see Mario/Snake head-to-head. It's been long overdue.

There are lots of matches that are long overdue, really.

Mario/Sonic
Mario/Cloud (I don't know if as many people would oppose this as much now since Mario has a legit chance to win)
Samus/Sephiroth
Sonic vs. Someone who can actually beat him one-on-one outside the Noble Nine
Tifa vs. Vincent vs. Squall
Ganondorf/Bowser
Zelda/Ganondorf

I also kinda want to see MM vs. MMX just to see what would happen.


My opinions:

Mario/Sonic - Agreed just 'cuz
Mario/Cloud - Eh I'd sooner see Mario/Snake or even Mario/Samus (cut it out, last time Mario was against his fellow Nintendo human acrobat star was arguably in his peak year)
Samus/Sephiroth - HECK YEAH
Sonic vs. Near-Elite - We already discussed this.
Tifa/Vincent/Squall - Yes we need to see the FF hierarchy heh heh
Ganondorf/Bowser - Unless you think Bowser can somehow catch rSFF, no thanks.
Zelda/Ganondorf - Yeah
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#257 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/28/2011 10:44:28 PM | message detail
I'm only partly joking. Sonic Colors rekindled some faith in him, and Sonic Generations has generated more positive press than any Sonic game in a loooong time. People seem to like SEGA more these days. Sonic isn't beating Snake or Mario, but if you're looking for a noble nine breaker, look elsewhere.
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#258 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/28/2011 10:46:46 PM | message detail
Yeah, like Crono. I seriously would pick Yoshi to beat him.

Also we've seen Mario vs Snake already and it wasn't pretty.
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#259 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/28/2011 10:48:02 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Whatever quasi-Nintendo support Snake may lose, Nintendo character themselves are going to be the weakest they've ever been next contest, so I doubt it matters.

Really, we could see a scenario where everyone deboosts. FF7 and CT get older. Ninty and Square hate is growing. MGS hasn't seen a full-fledged release in years and there's nothing on the horizon. Mega Man is getting absolutely nothing. The only high-level character getting a big release soon (besides Link) is...


All hail our new #2, Sonic the Hedgehog!


Hmmm...

Link - Is getting Skyward Sword
Mario - Is getting Super Mario 3D Land, but we all know that he draws most of his strength from his icon status than from his mainline games
Samus - Who knows?
Snake - You sure that Rising could not possibly mean much for him?
Mega Man - Lol
Sonic - I think he's in the same boat as Mario - thriving more on icon status than on his current games
Crono - Lol
FFVII crew - Lol

Yeah.
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#260 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 10:48:13 PM | message detail
Oh, I have no doubt Sonic's had his fair share of tests, but he looks like the weak link of the Noble Nine right now (along with Crono, maybe, but it's hard to say after last contest). I always want the bottom of the Noble Nine to get a good challenge from the near elites, and that hasn't happened in a while (Well, again, Missingno, but that's a special circumstance, and if that hadn't panned out, Yoshi wasn't going to do anything to him).

That's why I say it's overdue. Sonic hasn't really had that challenge since he became the weak link of the Noble Nine (if he even is, again, there's Crono).

Plus, I just want to see Squall get a crack 1-on-1 at the lower tier of the Noble Nine anyway. He's never faced Crono or Sonic 1-on-1, and he never faced Snake when he would've had a legit chance to win (Well, 2004 would've really been it for him, I guess, and really only if he had gotten Snake in the sprite round, MAYBE 2005, and again in the sprite round).

I'd like to see him get a crack at Mega Man, too, but MM seemed to have a bit of a revival last year and put some distance between him and Sonic/Crono.
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#261 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 10:50:02 PM | message detail | (edited)

From: UltimaterializerX | #258
Also we've seen Mario vs Snake already and it wasn't pretty.


Not post-Brawl we haven't.

From: UltimaterializerX | #258
I seriously would pick Yoshi to beat him.


Also, I really doubt that happens. The second-tier Mario characters haven't looked all that great the last few contests.

But if Yoshi could beat Crono, Squall would have a heck of a chance considering he wrecked Yoshi twice back in 2008!
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#262 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2011 10:50:11 PM | message detail
Give Crono a match against Vincent to settle the series and give Sonic a test against Squall. Have Auron face someone like James Bond or Indiana Jones (awwwwwww yeah).
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#263 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/28/2011 10:51:40 PM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
Yeah, like Crono. I seriously would pick Yoshi to beat him.

Also we've seen Mario vs Snake already and it wasn't pretty.


That was in Mario's strongest year, before Snake was announced to be in Brawl. That said, Mario got about 58% there if I remember correctly and it would not really make much sense for Snake to reverse that.

Then again:

Snake (2005c) has a strength of 36.97 against Base Link.
Sephiroth (2005c) has a strength of 49.16 against Base Link.

Snake 37.60% 42,623
Sephiroth 62.40% 70,732
TOTAL VOTES 113,355
Sephiroth wins with 62.40% of the vote!
A 28,108 vote margin of victory.

Look who beat who last year. Then again Sephiroth was coming straight out of Advent Children at the time.
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#264 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 10:54:07 PM | message detail | (edited)
Yeah, Crono/Vincent 1-on-1 needs to happen, just to settle the score once and for all.

Speaking of Vincent, talk about a guy who was totally wasted in the last Character Battle.

A match he can't lose against Guybrush, followed by a match he can't win against Sephiroth, both of which tell us absolutely nothing about his strength.

One of my biggest disappointments in last year's bracket. That guy is one of the biggest wild cards in the bracket. No way he should be totally wasted like that.
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#265 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2011 10:54:31 PM | message detail
In any case, I think Sonic/any Square challenger depends largely on the time. Doubt I'll take Squall in a day match.
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#266 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2011 10:55:18 PM | message detail
Sonic hasn't had a real 1v1 test since 2006, when he was still pretty strong. Which isn't too surprising, as we've had only one 1v1 character contest since 2006.

Cloud was looking at 53.5% on Samus if he'd had the rest of the match, I think. Though yes, a 51.5-48.5 gap is pretty close, and I'd definitely give Samus a good shot of winning. But it's also far enough apart considering it was against the same opponent to consider Snake the favorite, to me. He's earned it. (And people keep screaming about Link getting 53% on Cloud as if it meant he were permanently invincible for the 20 years!)

Not even close. SS is coming out in a few months and I haven't seen or heard one person hyping that game. Brawl hype was crazy for over a year. You can't call Skyward Sword one of the most hyped games on this site when no one is hyping it a few months before it releases.

The point was that it would be the most hyped game since Brawl, not that it would be as hyped as Brawl.
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#267 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2011 10:56:22 PM | message detail
Crono/Vincent IV is acceptable, as long as we get Mario/Crono V afterwards when Crono wins.
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#268 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/28/2011 10:57:04 PM | message detail
Man I wish I was here back when Crono was on Mario's level.
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#269 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 10:59:14 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #265
In any case, I think Sonic/any Square challenger depends largely on the time. Doubt I'll take Squall in a day match.


Hey, just so you know, Squall did his best work against Akuma last year during the California ASV!

Also, Squall would have a decent chance at beating Sonic during the day. A lot of Sonic's strength comes from Europe (i.e., the same place a lot of Squall's comes from), so he's not really an ASV guy.

Squall did actually lose to Auron in the U.S. though, for whatever that's worth. Regardless, I think Squall's chances are fairly equal either way.
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#270 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 11:01:34 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #267
Crono/Vincent IV is acceptable, as long as we get Mario/Crono V afterwards when Crono wins.


You probably won't find it quite as acceptable when Mario's pushing upper 50s!
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#271 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 11:11:31 PM | message detail | (edited)
Although one thing I will say about Squall and FFVIII: It seems to be much more popular in Europe compared to the U.S. I guess America still has a lot of that "FFVIII and Squall suck" mentality moreso than Europe does, but look at Geolocation results for matches involving Squall and FFVIII. It's ridiculous how much better they do in Europe. I don't know if there's another big game that has that large of a disparity.

In 2008 round 2, Squall lost to Sora in the U.S. (Barely beat him in North America overall), but holy crap, he kills that poll in Europe. Heck, he even does much better on Cloud the next round in Europe compared to the U.S. (where he narrowly loses to Sora again). Squall even does better on Snake in Europe, and Europe is one of MGS's strongest areas as well. I just wish we had Geolocation results for the 2007 4-way matches where Squall and Sonic faced.

But yeah, looking back on it, Squall probably does have a better shot at beating Sonic in a night match, but I still wouldn't rule out a day match win either.
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#272 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2011 11:13:24 PM | message detail
I think I would go Crono > Vincent, Sonic > Squall. Both pretty close!
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#273 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2011 11:16:02 PM | message detail
You probably won't find it quite as acceptable when Mario's pushing upper 50s!

If by pushing upper 50s, you mean he's just below 55%, I don't think I'd be too upset with that result. I'm not really too worried about him breaking 55% actually, and I think Crono can probably do better than 2005. Winning is unlikely of course, but at this point I just want to have the match, win or lose. Gotta give Crono a chance to prove himself, and it wouldn't take much to impress this topic with that matchup, because this topic would overshoot on Mario's percentage there.

Crono/Samus would be interesting too, but the downside is that most people aren't going to be impressed by Crono when he loses 56-44, which is about what I'd expect in that one.

If Link were seeded directly to the championship match, we could give each remaining Noble Niner a division to head:

North
(1) Mario

Northeast
(1) Crono
(2 )Vincent

East
(1) Sonic
(2) Squall

Southeast
(1) Megaman

South
(1) Cloud

Southwest
(1) Snake

West
(1) Samus

Northwest
(1) Sephiroth
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#274 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 11:17:17 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #273
If by pushing upper 50s, you mean he's just below 55%


That's not upper 50s!

I doubt Crono does better than he did in 2005 very highly.
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#275 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2011 11:19:31 PM | message detail
Well "upper 50s" is very unclear! It could mean anywhere from 55% to 59%. I mean, anything north of 55.0% is technically "upper 50s." But if you mean something like 57-58% for upper 50s, then I'm not worried at all about that happening.
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90s games > 00s games
#276 | pjbasis | Posted 8/28/2011 11:20:10 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
#277 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 11:20:46 PM | message detail
Well, upper 50s isn't below 55% either way!
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#278 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2011 11:22:48 PM | message detail
56-57% 'book it'
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#279 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2011 11:23:16 PM | message detail
But pushing upper 50s is! If Mario gets 54.5% or something, I wouldn't be too unhappy with the result. I'd probably predict 53-47 if I were being objective (Crono with 50.05% will be my actual prediction; I don't care if I'm throwing away points).
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#280 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/28/2011 11:23:33 PM | message detail
(looks at today's poll)

...holy CRAP, people seriously hate GTA4 nowadays!
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#281 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 11:23:55 PM | message detail
GameFAQs never liked GTA4!
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#282 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/28/2011 11:24:03 PM | message detail
Squall vs Darth Vader

ohs***
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#283 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 11:24:47 PM | message detail
I will argue to the death that Squall will win that match.

It is my solemn duty. You cannot dissuade me. You can only hope to contain me.
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#284 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2011 11:26:36 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=866

Squall's got this.
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#285 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/28/2011 11:26:36 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
GameFAQs never liked GTA4!

I guess, but this performance is still awful in a borderline surreal way. Poor Niko would probably get tripled by Jill now. >_>
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#286 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2011 11:27:00 PM | message detail
Freakin' Terra just beat a Darth. Squall over Vader is a damn near GIVEN.
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#287 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2011 11:33:07 PM | message detail
But the gap between Darth Vader and Darth whatever is probably larger than the gap between Link and Ganondorf, or Chrono Trigger and Chrono Cross, or Ocarina of Time and Majora's Mask (people who think MM is an OOT proxy, these gaps are all similar in size hint hint hint). And the gap between Squall and Terra is less than the gaps between those things, as last contest showed us, so I'm calling Darth Vader the favorite.
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#288 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/28/2011 11:36:27 PM | message detail
A Vader/Revan match actually sounds freaking hilarious. Is it possible for a character to get 100% of the votes in a poll...?
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#289 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/28/2011 11:38:03 PM | message detail
Terra beat a Darth few people have heard of. I would pick Squall, but I'd have no confidence at all.
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#290 | pjbasis | Posted 8/28/2011 11:38:26 PM | message detail
Vader would even get joke votes
#291 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2011 11:41:25 PM | message detail | (edited)
Taking Sox's divisions for a second and reshaping them...

North
(1) Mario

Northeast
(1) Crono
(2 )Vincent

East
(1) Sonic
(2) Squall

Southeast
(1) Cloud

South
(1) Samus

Southwest
(1) Snake

West
(1) Megaman
(5) Tifa

Northwest
(1) Sephiroth


What we get out of this setup:

-Crono/Vincent. A real test for a declining character, and a chance for Vincent to prove himself
-The winner of that vs. Mario. Gets fed to Mr. Nintendo, sure, but it's a chance for Crono to get close and for Vincent to look pimpin'.
-Sonic/Squall. Easily the match of the contest if a crazy upset I've got in mind doesn't pan out, and potentially Squall's chance to finally make the big time just before Generations erases the opportunity.
-Samus/Snake, a chance to see if he really can win that match or if he does, in fact, rely on Ninty support for dose upsetz.
-Megaman gets a warmup on Tifa and then...battle vs. Sephiroth again. THE NOSTALGIAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
-Mario/Sonic (or Mario/Squall if The Most Awesome Thing Ever happens). Loooooooong overdue.
-Samus/Sephiroth, a chance to see if Samus is not only stronger directly vs. Snake, but indirectly.
-Mario/Cloud. If, as I'm guessing, Cloud's weak enough and Mario is still the strongest guy among the middle-tier Noble 9...this is his chance to become the site's Number 2. WILL THE MIRACLE HAPPEN?
-One of Mario/Samus, Mario/Snake, Cloud/Samus, or Cloud/Snake. No matter what happens, we're bound to get something amazing. The best match would probably be Mario/Snake, with Snake avoiding a total collapse on his Ninty support, somehow, to keep it really close.

What do you guys think?
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#292 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2011 11:40:40 PM | message detail
I'd vote for Revan. Revan's story is even more amazing than Vader's, and its end is still shrouded in mystery.
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#293 | pjbasis | Posted 8/28/2011 11:41:49 PM | message detail
Oh man Tifa > Mega Man

So hard

Like omg Tifa *hard*
#294 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2011 11:42:19 PM | message detail
By the way, I'm about to submit a poll inquiring about voters' favorite non-gaming franchises. Here are the choices I have so far:

Batman
Harry Potter
The Lord of the Rings
The Simpsons
Star Wars
X-Men

Anything really obvious I'm missing? Keep in mind that I don't want comics to dominate the list, which is why I snubbed Supes and Spidey.
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#295 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/28/2011 11:44:33 PM | message detail
Sounds incredible, Kansaris. I'd give anything to see Mario/Sonic!

Yoblazer, you'd be a total boss if you added Arrested Development to that poll. :P
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#296 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2011 11:45:25 PM | message detail
I think that's a nice list, actually. Probably could use a movie-centered franchise besides SW, but hell if I know which.
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#297 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/28/2011 11:48:33 PM | message detail
On a serious note, it might be worth considering Pirates of the Caribbean for a slot in that poll. Maybe Indiana Jones and/or James Bond, too.
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#298 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2011 11:48:55 PM | message detail
That's a better setup, yes. I meant to move Snake over to Mario's half of the division to set up Mario/Snake in the semifinals, but forgot to do it for some reason. I think originally I had Mario and Sonic in the same division, Crono in an adjacent division, and there was a "commons" division somewhere in the bracket with no nobles, and forgot to keep Mario and Snake in the same half when making the changes.
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#299 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2011 11:52:15 PM | message detail
TheCodeisBosco posted...
On a serious note, it might be worth considering Pirates of the Caribbean for a slot in that poll. Maybe Indiana Jones and/or James Bond, too.

James Bond could maybe work, but I don't think movies centered around one, single character are too worthwhile. Batman is a special case because he's...well, Batman, arguably the single most popular superhero. Not so with others.

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red sox 777 posted...
That's a better setup, yes. I meant to move Snake over to Mario's half of the division to set up Mario/Snake in the semifinals, but forgot to do it for some reason. I think originally I had Mario and Sonic in the same division, Crono in an adjacent division, and there was a "commons" division somewhere in the bracket with no nobles, and forgot to keep Mario and Snake in the same half when making the changes.

That one could also be pretty great, and also close to reality because I'd bet money on Shepard getting a 1 seed this year. Mix the two and keep it similar (stick Megaman as the 2-seed on Seph's division maybe?) And we're cooking with gasoline.
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#300 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 11:54:53 PM | message detail | (edited)

From: PartOfYourWorld | #294
which is why I snubbed Supes and Spidey.


No Spidey no sale
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