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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1001

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#201 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2011 9:25:22 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
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#202 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2011 9:25:23 PM | message detail
I figure ME3 comes second in a front page "hype poll." Skyrim might have people excited, but Mass Effect 3 is the sequel to a game that just torched GotY voting, and everyone knows it will wrap up the saga.

By the way, if Shepard and the ME games want to do well in these contests, it looks like they'll have a very short window of opportunity to do so. Look at what's happened to Metal Gear Solid. Once a series wraps itself up, seems that gamers forget and move on quickly.
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#203 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 9:26:38 PM | message detail
It's just so weird to see the MGS series fade so quickly and yet we see classic Square and Nintendo titles seemingly hold on forever.
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#204 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2011 9:27:38 PM | message detail
It didn't help MGS that MGS4 was received plenty of backlash not long after it came out. MGS always seemed temporary to begin with, though. It has never been as popular as Nintendo or Square series, and it had a quick boom because MGS4 hype was through the roof and then Snake was announced for Brawl. That was a high point that was never going to really hold.
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#205 | LOLContests | Posted 8/28/2011 9:30:35 PM | message detail | (edited)
Brief 25 minute analysis:

Call of Duty 4: Pretty bad performance here. It's getting more than doubled by a game that's barely better than the game which doubled MW2 in GOTD. It has overlap with a lot of other games here, but that's still no excuse for looking this bad. Galaxy has a pretty good shot to beat it in a rematch, IMO.

Final Fantasy IV: Great performance here, despite another jRPG being preset. That being said, there's a lot of overlap between the other games, so it's reasonable that it'd look good, but with FFIX/FFXII slipping in 2010, it's nice to see that one other FF game looks as good as it did in 2009.

Grand Theft Auto IV: Big overlap with the other HD games from this gen, but pretty horrible performance regardless.

Mega Man 4: Looks bad, but eh, what can you expect? It's not like the game's held in super high esteem or anything.

Metal Gear Solid 4: Looks to be improving somewhat, but still pretty bad, albeit the series appears to have been on a downward slope for a while popularity wise. Snake > Mario is beginning to look worse and worse, as MGS falls further and further.

Resident Evil 4: Goes out and wins the poll by a good margin as expected. Nothing great, but RE4 seems to specialize in solid, but not spectacular performances.

Persona 4: Fantastic performance here, especially with FFIV stealing some votes away. Was it even above the fodder line in 2010?

Civ 4: Ouch.

Street Fighter IV: How did this game look good in 2010? It's looked like crap in almost every other poll related to it outside of that.

Elder Scrolls IV: Solid performance, but that was to be expected. Looks solid, but that shouldn't come as any surprise.
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#206 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/28/2011 9:28:52 PM | message detail
Lol Civ4 in last. I would have voted for it if RE4 was not here.

I'd still take Snake over Sephiroth, but more due to Sephiroth's weakness. Sephiroth is definitely a sold notch below the Mario/Snake/Samus tier.
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#207 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 9:30:42 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #205
Galaxy has a pretty good shot to beat it in a rematch, IMO.


I'd be shocked if Galaxy even came close to losing to CoD4 one-on-one.
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#208 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/28/2011 9:31:48 PM | message detail
MGS4 fading at a rapid rate doesn't necessarily mean all the games in the series are in freefall.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3498

If MGS is still that strong after 11 years, I can't see 2 more years being that harmful.
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#209 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2011 9:31:56 PM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
I'd still take Snake over Sephiroth, but more due to Sephiroth's weakness. Sephiroth is definitely a sold notch below the Mario/Snake/Samus tier.

wait what. have i fallen really far out of the loop or
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#210 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2011 9:32:42 PM | message detail
It's a bit like a mountain I think. A mountain is roughly shaped like a triangle if you take a cross section from one side to the other. A mountain that is twice as tall will be 4 times as massive. A mountain that is 4 times as tall will be 16 times as massive. OOT/FFVII lifts their series up 4 times as much as say, MGS4 raises up MGS, so it will take 16 times as long for the effect to wear off.
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#211 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 9:32:58 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #208
MGS4 fading at a rapid rate doesn't necessarily mean all the games in the series are in freefall.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3498

If MGS is still that strong after 11 years, I can't see 2 more years being that harmful.


That was less than a year after MGS4 came out though.

MGS1 certainly didn't look that good in the original Games Contest, even.
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#212 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2011 9:33:19 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #199
So, I know games =/= characters, but do MGS's recent poll performances over the last year or so give you second thoughts about Solid Snake & co. in the next Character Battle?

Say, a Snake/Sephiroth rematch pops up? Do you still take Snake? Or are you changing sides on the Snake/Mario/Samus debate?

Are we taking Squall over Snake yet? I hope so.


Great topic of discussion imo; I was just thinking about this. I'll take everyone but Snake to lose debated matches. I think Snake has now transcended his own games and series; among people who know games (this site), he is every bit the legend that the "face of gaming icons" are. He has twice now established himself as the late-contest dynamite voting option, the one who can build scary momentum and do amazing things. I take him to lose only against Link without thinking. Cloud, Seph, Mario, Samus: I have to think about it and may go with Snake in several, if not all four.

Let's not forget - most of the people around his popularity have been even less relevant over the years. Sonic hasn't gotten any big games to really affect his strength. Crono is Crono. I don't think Cloud n Seph have gotten anything since KHII. Capcom is apparently trying to erase Mega Man from existence. Mario and Samus... those are tough, I grant you that. I still remember how easily Samus beat him in 2006, and Snake may indeed lose his Nintendo support against them again. Still, those matches would be debatable no matter what, and I don't see Snake dropping matches to opponents he should beat anytime soon.
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#213 | vcharon | Posted 8/28/2011 9:34:43 PM | message detail
Cecil > Mega Man
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#214 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2011 9:34:57 PM | message detail
I don't think the entire series would dropoff, necessarily but I think they would all come down off the high that MGS4 hype brought on. I think MGS1 will still be plenty strong, just not the "beats everything but ten games" strong, maybe. I think I'd go FFVIII over MGS1 despite what that poll says, for instance.
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#215 | LOLContests | Posted 8/28/2011 9:35:20 PM | message detail
In all fairness, people claimed that Snake was considered an icon in 2002 as well.
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#216 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 9:35:24 PM | message detail
Hey, Sonic's making a comeback of sorts!

Granted, I don't know how well Sonic Colors sold, but it was certainly the best Sonic game in 15+ years, and Sonic Generations looks great, too!

Of course, that's just the Sonic fanboy in me talking.
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#217 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2011 9:36:02 PM | message detail
I'll be taking Snake against everyone but Link and Cloud. He's clearly proven himself to be a cut above Mario and Samus recently, unless any wacky SSB SFF appears at least. And he just beat Sephiroth decisively last contest. If MGS has taken a fall, Snake probably already suffered part of it last contest and he was still plenty strong then.
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#218 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/28/2011 9:36:54 PM | message detail
MGS4 being more like a "casual cover-based shooter" in comparison to older titles in the series definitely does not help matters. On most other sites, the game was forgotten rather quickly in comparison with older MGS titles, especially the original.
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#219 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 9:37:10 PM | message detail
Oh, and speaking of comebacks, I know Donkey Kong Country Returns DID sell great! I think it's the first time since these contests started that we've had a notable DK release to talk about (...Huh, I guess that's true).

Any sort of DK boost? MC vs. DK rematch go go go
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#220 | swirIdude | Posted 8/28/2011 9:38:03 PM | message detail
If there is any justice, DK wins a rematch. DKCR was amazing.
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#221 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2011 9:40:29 PM | message detail | (edited)
I feel MC should be stronger than in 2005 too. The hate has really died down.

And the general trend since 2005 does not help DK- 2005-2007 was the apex of Nintendo strength on this site.
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#222 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2011 9:42:07 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #217
I'll be taking Snake against everyone but Link and Cloud. He's clearly proven himself to be a cut above Mario and Samus recently


He barely outperformed Samus against Cloud, and it was in a later round (I'm not sure how much evidence is there for this, but I figure the chances for crazy stuff increase as we near the end). I think if Snake is still getting some residual Nintendo support from Brawl fans and if Samus and Mario can siphon that away, they've got real good shots.
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#223 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/28/2011 9:44:18 PM | message detail
While it does make sense for DK to boost more from his own game than he does from a site-wide Nintendo boost...uh, look at Mario. Big boost in '05, then falls drastically in '08 despite coming off of the release of his first game with monster critical acclaim since 1996. DK is probably seen more as an oldschool icon in the same vein as Mario than he is revered for his core games.

Also with a Halo 1 remake on the way Chief could boost back to solid midcarder levels. Ugh.
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#224 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2011 9:44:31 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #219
Any sort of DK boost? MC vs. DK rematch go go go


Oh man, I'd take DK to beat Chief easily 1v1. Chief is done until Halo 4. Heck, until we get the next Microsoft zillion dollar ad campaign, I bet Pac-Man can scare Chief.

PAC-MAN VS HALO, YES I'M BRINGING IT BACK
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#225 | swirIdude | Posted 8/28/2011 9:47:58 PM | message detail
I would vote Pac-Man so hard.
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#226 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/28/2011 9:48:33 PM | message detail
I might also vote for Pac-Man.

Lol Chief.
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#227 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 9:52:02 PM | message detail
I still want to see something like Master Chief vs. Kefka for 24 hours one-on-one to see DAT ASV COMEBACK.

Anyone take Kefka > MC in a night match?
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#228 | swirIdude | Posted 8/28/2011 9:53:26 PM | message detail | (edited)
Four Pack of Anguish:

Donkey Kong
Kefka
Magus
Master Chief

Or, in 1 on 1 form:

Magus
Kefka

Donkey Kong
Master Chief
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#229 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/28/2011 9:53:38 PM | message detail
Kefka should win that now. I think.
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#230 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 9:54:01 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #222
He barely outperformed Samus against Cloud, and it was in a later round


Snake also did it in a 24-hour match with his terrible day vote, so I feel that's slightly more impressive. Even though Samus is a Nintendo character, she's not a strong ASV character, so I doubt the final margin of that match changes much.

For what it's worth, Snake still had 49.09% after 12 hours, over a full percent better than what Samus finished with after 12 hours.
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#231 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2011 9:56:09 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #230
For what it's worth, Snake still had 49.09% after 12 hours, over a full percent better than what Samus finished with after 12 hours.


Fair, but that's still not much. It makes Snake/Samus debated even before the possibility of her stealing the Nintendo support. That's what scares me - that Snake's quasi-Nintendo affiliation might actually boost him against ENEMIES like Cloud and Sephiroth, but it might get stripped away against an actual Nintendo character like Samus.
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#232 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 10:03:31 PM | message detail | (edited)
Yeah, that's certainly a real possibility, but it always was. I mean, if you think Mario and Samus steal Snake's quasi-Nintendo support, then there's never really any reason to pick him to win.

I'm still not so sure I buy that explanation for 2006 anyway.

But it's pretty ridiculous that 2/3 of our Noble Nine are now affiliated with Nintendo in some way.

Heck, only Sephiroth hasn't been on a Nintendo console, period.
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#233 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/28/2011 10:04:26 PM | message detail
swirIdude posted...
Four Pack of Anguish:

Donkey Kong
Kefka
Magus
Master Chief

Or, in 1 on 1 form:

Magus
Kefka

Donkey Kong
Master Chief


I would pick Kefka to win 1v1 but Chief to win in 4-ways.
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#234 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 10:05:27 PM | message detail
Man, Magus vs. Kefka, nobody would've ever imagined even as recently as last year that Kefka would've had a real chance to win that.
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#235 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2011 10:08:09 PM | message detail
Heck, only Sephiroth hasn't been on a Nintendo console, period.

a hero
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#236 | LOLContests | Posted 8/28/2011 10:08:44 PM | message detail
Magus > DK, I guess, although I agree that MC wins in a 4 way.

Kefka looked a little better than Magus in 2010, but that was with Dissidia behind him. Two years later, and I'm not sure who would win.
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#237 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2011 10:08:54 PM | message detail
If Nintendo is the WWE, I guess Sephiroth would be Sting.
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#238 | XxSoulxX | Posted 8/28/2011 10:09:05 PM | message detail
Well, either way, sitewide Skyward Sword is going to be the most hyped game since Brawl, by a large margin.

Not even close. SS is coming out in a few months and I haven't seen or heard one person hyping that game. Brawl hype was crazy for over a year. You can't call Skyward Sword one of the most hyped games on this site when no one is hyping it a few months before it releases.
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#239 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 10:09:17 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #236
Magus > DK, I guess, although I agree that MC wins in a 4 way.

Kefka looked a little better than Magus in 2010, but that was with Dissidia behind him. Two years later, and I'm not sure who would win.


There's been another Dissidia game since the last contest though.
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#240 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/28/2011 10:10:07 PM | message detail
PartOfYourWorld posted...
From: LeonhartFour | #230
For what it's worth, Snake still had 49.09% after 12 hours, over a full percent better than what Samus finished with after 12 hours.
Fair, but that's still not much. It makes Snake/Samus debated even before the possibility of her stealing the Nintendo support. That's what scares me - that Snake's quasi-Nintendo affiliation might actually boost him against ENEMIES like Cloud and Sephiroth, but it might get stripped away against an actual Nintendo character like Samus.


You mean the very thing I've been saying for years but Leon always makes fun of me about? :'(

:(((((((((((

It's a legit theory though, I think. I mean yeah we don't have godly evidence Snake's support collapses against Nintendo, but I'd be shocked if he ever beat Mario heads-up.
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#241 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2011 10:12:36 PM | message detail
PartOfYourWorld posted...
If Nintendo is the WWE, I guess Sephiroth would be Sting.

this comparison right here -- awesome.
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#242 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 10:13:43 PM | message detail
I just want to see Mario/Snake head-to-head. It's been long overdue.

There are lots of matches that are long overdue, really.

Mario/Sonic
Mario/Cloud (I don't know if as many people would oppose this as much now since Mario has a legit chance to win)
Samus/Sephiroth
Sonic vs. Someone who can actually beat him one-on-one outside the Noble Nine
Tifa vs. Vincent vs. Squall
Ganondorf/Bowser
Zelda/Ganondorf

I also kinda want to see MM vs. MMX just to see what would happen.
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#243 | XxSoulxX | Posted 8/28/2011 10:16:32 PM | message detail
Sonic vs. Someone who can actually beat him one-on-one outside the Noble Nine

Haven't we seen this enough already?
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#244 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/28/2011 10:18:21 PM | message detail
XxSoulxX posted...
Sonic vs. Someone who can actually beat him one-on-one outside the Noble Nine

Haven't we seen this enough already?


We were supposed to see it last year but we did not.
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#245 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 10:25:55 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #243
Sonic vs. Someone who can actually beat him one-on-one outside the Noble Nine

Haven't we seen this enough already?


Against...?
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#246 | XxSoulxX | Posted 8/28/2011 10:33:23 PM | message detail
Sonic/Tifa, Sonic/Vincent, Sonic/Zero, Sonic/Aeris, Sonic/Dante, Sonic/Ganondorf, Sonic/Kirby, Sonic/Squall... He's probably the most prominent upper tier killer in these contests.
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#247 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/28/2011 10:35:50 PM | message detail
Sonic's actually been through that a lot 1v1

Aeris
Zero
Tifa
Vincent
Ganondorf
Kirby

He's still gotta pay Auron back though, and Squall looms as probably his biggest non-N9 challenger.
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#248 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/28/2011 10:38:30 PM | message detail
XxSoulxX posted...
Sonic/Tifa, Sonic/Vincent, Sonic/Zero, Sonic/Aeris, Sonic/Dante, Sonic/Ganondorf, Sonic/Kirby, Sonic/Squall... He's probably the most prominent upper tier killer in these contests.

Aside from Ganondorf and Kirby, most of those opponents faced Sonic a long while back.
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#249 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2011 10:38:47 PM | message detail
Kirby was no real threat to beat Sonic 1-on-1, I don't care what happened in 2008, and Ganondorf was no real threat in the sprite round. LOL at considering Dante one of those challenges though.

So basically Sonic's last real 1-on-1 challenge (Note that I said 1-on-1, so Auron and Squall don't count) was Vincent in 2006, basically when he was seemingly the strongest he's ever been. We haven't really seen him challenged 1-on-1 since he seemingly started declining the year after that.

Which is why I want to see it, and why we're overdue for it. Sonic got such an easy path last year, it was disappointing.
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#250 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/28/2011 10:39:31 PM | message detail | (edited)
Whatever quasi-Nintendo support Snake may lose, Nintendo character themselves are going to be the weakest they've ever been next contest, so I doubt it matters.

Really, we could see a scenario where everyone deboosts. FF7 and CT get older. Ninty and Square hate is growing. MGS hasn't seen a full-fledged release in years and there's nothing on the horizon. Mega Man is getting absolutely nothing. The only high-level character getting a big release soon (besides Link) is...


All hail our new #2, Sonic the Hedgehog!
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