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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1001

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#451 | Achromatic | Posted 8/31/2011 8:29:46 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2629

Games like Elder Scrolls build momentum over time because they stand the test of time better than most. Fresh on the mind? Not so much.
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#452 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2011 8:31:38 PM | message detail
Elder Scrolls has gained quite a bit of popularity as a whole since that poll to begin with.

But to say Skyrim won't be fresh on people's minds and not hyped when GOTY polls hit is pretty silly because it's one of the biggest releases of the year.
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#453 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/31/2011 8:32:18 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
The Modern Warfare brand means more than Call of Duty.

Valid thought, though Call of Duty has lost its step since it became the new top-shooter in 2007 too. MW3 still has upset-potential because Activision's going to go all out with the advertising, but its competition isn't like 2009 either. Uncharted 2, AC2, and Batman:AA were practically on-par with MW2 that year...and now MW3's facing their sequels PLUS Skyrim, Portal 2, and LoZ:SS. Difficult times are ahead of it.
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#454 | GranzonEx | Posted 8/31/2011 8:32:39 PM | message detail
Are people even going to be able to finish Skyrim by the time for the poll to even be able to judge it?
#455 | Achromatic | Posted 8/31/2011 8:32:45 PM | message detail
Leon you misunderstand my point. I didn't say it wouldn't be fresh on the mind, my point was it wouldn't be as appreciated while it is fresh on the mind. Hell, I bet a lot of people wouldn't even be done playing it.
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#456 | XxSoulxX | Posted 8/31/2011 8:33:10 PM | message detail
Oblivion finished second in that poll because of Skyrim hype.
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#457 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2011 8:33:51 PM | message detail

From: GranzonEx | #454
Are people even going to be able to finish Skyrim by the time for the poll to even be able to judge it?


Why do you have to be able to finish it to vote for it for GOTY?

Besides, Skyrim won't be the only thing CoD has to worry about anyway.
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#458 | Achromatic | Posted 8/31/2011 8:34:00 PM | message detail
Oblivion finished second in that poll because its the clear # 2 game in that poll <_<
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#459 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/31/2011 8:34:24 PM | message detail
I think the multiplatform poll(s) will be more interesting than the final couple, because Zelda is set to steamroll everything. Which games do we expect to make it into the multiplatform voting this year? Think SB will split it into two polls again?
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#460 | Achromatic | Posted 8/31/2011 8:35:09 PM | message detail
I don't know I just find it weird that my thought that MW3 can win the Multiplatform poll is somehow very weird when its done it twice. I mean I know it is a strong year and it more than likely won't have my vote or anything but why the hating.
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#461 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2011 8:35:50 PM | message detail
It's possible that it finished as close to RE4 as it did because of Skyrim hype.

But Call of Duty isn't that strong of a series around here anymore. It's looked decidedly weaker in the polls it's been in for the last few years.
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#462 | XxSoulxX | Posted 8/31/2011 8:36:10 PM | message detail
Skyward Sword will have fun with OoT3D. It's possible, but unlikely, that OoT leeches Skyward Sword enough for Skyrim to outright win, but I wouldn't put money on it.
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#463 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2011 8:36:25 PM | message detail

From: Achromatic | #460
I don't know I just find it weird that my thought that MW3 can win the Multiplatform poll is somehow very weird when its done it twice. I mean I know it is a strong year and it more than likely won't have my vote or anything but why the hating.


Disagreeing + Debating =/= Hating
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#464 | Achromatic | Posted 8/31/2011 8:36:31 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #459
I think the multiplatform poll(s) will be more interesting than the final couple, because Zelda is set to steamroll everything. Which games do we expect to make it into the multiplatform voting this year? Think SB will split it into two polls again?


Let's see, multiplatform games I am hyped for/I think should be big this year.

Portal 2
Skyrim
MW3
Battlefield 3
Deus Ex
Batman
Saints Row
Dragon Age 2

what have I left out.
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#465 | Achromatic | Posted 8/31/2011 8:36:55 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #463
Disagreeing + Debating =/= Hating


Hater.
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#466 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2011 8:36:59 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #462
Skyward Sword will have fun with OoT3D. It's possible, but unlikely, that OoT leeches Skyward Sword enough for Skyrim to outright win, but I wouldn't put money on it.


OoT3DS won't be in the final GOTY poll, and I'd wager Skyward Sword still will be, OoT3DS leeching or not.
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#467 | XxSoulxX | Posted 8/31/2011 8:37:42 PM | message detail
OoT3DS won't be in the final GOTY poll, and I'd wager Skyward Sword still will be, OoT3DS leeching or not.

They might be final three, depending on how strong the Zelda name is.
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#468 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2011 8:38:05 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #459
I think the multiplatform poll(s) will be more interesting than the final couple, because Zelda is set to steamroll everything. Which games do we expect to make it into the multiplatform voting this year? Think SB will split it into two polls again?


You almost have to make two separate polls because nearly any major release that isn't a Nintendo game is multiplatform nowadays.

About the only major non-Nintendo release this year that isn't multiplatform is Uncharted 3.
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#469 | Achromatic | Posted 8/31/2011 8:38:48 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #468
You almost have to make two separate polls because nearly any major release that isn't a Nintendo game is multiplatform nowadays.

About the only major non-Nintendo release this year that isn't multiplatform is Uncharted 3.


Gears 3?
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#470 | GranzonEx | Posted 8/31/2011 8:38:57 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #457
Why do you have to be able to finish it to vote for it for GOTY?


I just don't like judging a game until I finish it, especially if it's an RPG.
#471 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2011 8:39:18 PM | message detail
LOL Gears 3

I mean, I guess it's huge overall, but that game will bomb so hard in the final GOTY poll.
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#472 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/31/2011 8:39:19 PM | message detail
I don't think Ocarina will win the 3DS poll. The new Mario game will win that. OoT might not even finish in second (Mario Kart).
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#473 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2011 8:40:43 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #472
I don't think Ocarina will win the 3DS poll. The new Mario game will win that. OoT might not even finish in second (Mario Kart).


Oh, that's true. I forgot that was even due out this year.

But it'll be a little change of pace to have three Nintendo games in the final GOTY poll this year now that the 3DS is out there.
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#474 | XxSoulxX | Posted 8/31/2011 8:40:50 PM | message detail
I don't think Ocarina will win the 3DS poll. The new Mario game will win that. OoT might not even finish in second (Mario Kart).

I wouldn't put money on that scenario either. Never bet Mario > Zelda on this site.
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#475 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2011 8:43:01 PM | message detail
Eh, remakes and ports almost never do well in GOTY polls, even if it is OoT.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4397

Not expecting too much out of that.
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#476 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2011 8:44:13 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #474
I wouldn't put money on that scenario either. Never bet Mario > Zelda on this site.


Also, Mario beating Zelda is plenty doable!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3479
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#477 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 8/31/2011 8:45:46 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2629

Games like Elder Scrolls build momentum over time because they stand the test of time better than most. Fresh on the mind? Not so much.


Fallout 3 nearly beat MGS4 and Brawl in the Goty poll, and it came out about the same time Skyrim will. If anything, those Bethesda RPGs start out stronger and fade.
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#478 | XxSoulxX | Posted 8/31/2011 8:47:09 PM | message detail
I see the new Mario game as a sequel to (or in the same line as) New Super Mario Bros. It's not that big of a series here, and I don't think it would beat the game that most people bought their 3DS for.
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#479 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/31/2011 9:01:42 PM | message detail
Finally, a good poll for once. I had the idea for this poll for a while, but I never went through with submitting it.
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#480 | pjbasis | Posted 8/31/2011 9:03:21 PM | message detail
Advokaiser posted...
Ugh...

Does Majora's Mask > Twilight Princess > Final Fantasy VIII > Metal Gear Solid > Wind Waker sound right to you?


Nah man.

MGS > FFVIII > MM > TP > WW

BOOK it
#481 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/31/2011 9:06:56 PM | message detail

From: Ngamer64 | #434
Also, yo's list of the "classic matches" with little writeups was super entertaining, so I made a page for it!

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Yoblazers_All-Time_Classic_Matches


Hey, thanks for that! Can't believe I wrote over 7000 words, but it was fun.


From: Advokaiser | #435
Changing subject:

Do you guys think Link's Awakening > Metroid Prime?


I'd take this. Wind Waker gave Prime the old 55/45 back in the day, and I think that Link's Awakening is probably within that 55/45 range on WW. Remember that LA had a great 2009 contest and didn't even lose to Super Metroid by that much in its elimination match. I understand that both games were afterthoughts in that match, but LA still had LttP crushing it.

One-on-one, I'd take Zelda there. It always wins (against Metroid).
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#482 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/31/2011 9:08:55 PM | message detail
Early Geolocation results might suggest that "Two, I've made it to one other" will do best with the night vote, based on Europe and Asia. Still too early to tell, as the Geolocation results can still change quite a bit for Europe and Asia.
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#483 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/31/2011 9:15:09 PM | message detail
Mario 1 > Zelda 1 shocked me, and I've been really wary about assuming Zelda will just beat lesser Nintendo series by virtue of being Zelda since then. Mario 64 only losing to LTTP by 200 confirmed that. It's really just Link and OOT that always wins.
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#484 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/31/2011 9:34:52 PM | message detail
PartOfYourWorld posted...
From: Ngamer64 | #434
Also, yo's list of the "classic matches" with little writeups was super entertaining, so I made a page for it!

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Yoblazers_All-Time_Classic_Matches
Hey, thanks for that! Can't believe I wrote over 7000 words, but it was fun.


From: Advokaiser | #435
Changing subject:

Do you guys think Link's Awakening > Metroid Prime?
I'd take this. Wind Waker gave Prime the old 55/45 back in the day, and I think that Link's Awakening is probably within that 55/45 range on WW. Remember that LA had a great 2009 contest and didn't even lose to Super Metroid by that much in its elimination match. I understand that both games were afterthoughts in that match, but LA still had LttP crushing it.

One-on-one, I'd take Zelda there. It always wins (against Metroid).


I honestly think Metroid Prime > FFVI is a more likely result by this point! Although it's mostly because the Fall 2010 x-stats have Prime ahead of many games that beat out FFVI in the 2009 x-stats (LOL x-stats, I know).

Okay, for no good reason, I'm going to list the top 16 of the Fall 2010 field according to the stats, and bold ones that were ahead of FFVI in the 2009 stats.

1) The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask
2) Final Fantasy X
3) Super Smash Bros. Brawl
4) Super Smash Bros. Melee
5) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
6) Fallout 3
7) Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal
8) Metroid Prime
9) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
10) Resident Evil 4
11) Half-Life 2
12) Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater
13) Shadow of the Colossus
14) Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty
15) Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots
16) Kingdom Hearts II
17) God of War
18) Portal
19) Kingdom Hearts

Earlier I also heard some of you guys say that Fallout 3 would obliterate FFVI. Metroid Prime came close to Fallout 3, and FFVI killed Link's Awakening in 2009, so...are we betting on rSFF or something?
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#485 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/31/2011 9:37:13 PM | message detail
"COD4 was awesome"

"Boo COD4"

"Yay COD 6"

"Boo COD 7"

And MW3 will be COD 8.


Isn't that due to Infinity Ward and Treyarch alternating as the Developer?

COD4 -Infinity Ward
COD5 - Treyarch
COD6 - Infinity Ward
COD7 - Treyarch
COD8 - Infinity Ward

While it looks like the pattern is continuing, Infinity Ward lost a lot of its main staff after COD6. I'm not sure if their COD8 will be as well received as COD4 and COD6.
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#486 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/31/2011 9:39:00 PM | message detail
Didn't Black Ops beat Final Fantasy XIII in the first multiplatform poll?
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#487 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2011 9:39:57 PM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #486
Didn't Black Ops beat Final Fantasy XIII in the first multiplatform poll?


It did.

FFXIII beat it in the 2nd one though.
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#488 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/31/2011 9:43:57 PM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #484
I honestly think Metroid Prime > FFVI is a more likely result by this point!


Really? I know Metroid Prime redeemed itself in 2010, but let's examine that a bit.

58% on Okami
51% on HL2
48% on F3

None of these strike me as results that LA is incapable of matching - yes, not even the third one. Link's Awakening has had a rough go of things; it's only been in one contest, that one contest was a 4way, and it got stuck against some of the strongest SNES games around. You give it a 1v1 with the type of competition we saw in GotD, and I think it would have stomped a serious mudhole up in dat.
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#489 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/31/2011 9:47:56 PM | message detail
I dunno, I thought there were guys who were saying that they might pick Oblivion > FFVI by now, and Metroid Prime > Oblivion is basically guaranteed (heck, Oblivion did worse against Wind Waker in 2010 than Prime did against the same opponent in 2004, during a match that may have had some SFF), so if people were effectively arguing Prime > FFVI, why are we suddenly turning around and saying that something worth 44% on FFVI could beat Prime?

I dunno though, Prime being so strong took me entirely by surprise. I thought it got a 1 seed solely due to Other M being released during the nomination period (...over a year ago now? My how time flies...).
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#490 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/31/2011 9:53:10 PM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #489
I dunno, I thought there were guys who were saying that they might pick Oblivion > FFVI by now


...wut.

Who's been arguing that? Man, you wanna talk about being underrated - FFVI may be the most underrated game here if that's what people are honestly thinking. Look back at the 2009 contest:

SMB3 got 68% against Sonic the Hedgehog
FFVI got 66% against Sonic 2

Seriously, FFVI ain't losing to Western games. It's getting a bum rap because it didn't kill LA (which is a possible beast in and of itself) as bad as people were expecting, and because it ran into arguably the third strongest game in the site.
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#491 | pjbasis | Posted 8/31/2011 9:55:35 PM | message detail
Four ways

FFVI is goin down!
#492 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/31/2011 9:58:00 PM | message detail
Around GotD time the consensus was that Fallout 3 would smoke FFVI.
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#493 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/31/2011 10:17:41 PM | message detail
SMB3 got 68% against Sonic the Hedgehog
FFVI got 66% against Sonic 2


Hmm, so if Sonic 1 = Sonic 2, FFVI gets 47% on SMB3. That's not bad at all, and FFVI looked to be around 38-40% on LTTP depending on how strong the Triple LFF actually was, which puts SMB3 and SMW around, say, 41-44% on LTTP. Which also seems reasonable for the amount of LFF you'd have expected between the two Mario games in the semifinals. Objectively, CT ends up at 47-48% on LTTP, which is equal to Mario 64, so I'm liking those figures. Plus, if LTTP can get 56% on SMW it can get 56% or higher on FFX, which I also like very much.
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#494 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2011 10:17:55 PM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #492
Around GotD time the consensus was that Fallout 3 would smoke FFVI.


No, it was not.

And it still isn't.
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#495 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/31/2011 10:20:42 PM | message detail
If it wasn't, it felt like it. Though I think it was mostly because no one had good things to say about FFVI (hey, at least it managed to avoid an Ulti-style blowout against LTTP......with 2 other Nintendo games in the poll) while most people thought Fallout 3 did well and a few very vocal people thought it'd be the one to be the first Western game to break into the top echelons on this site.
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#496 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2011 10:21:18 PM | message detail
The only person I really recall being high on Fallout 3 was Albion, for obvious reasons.
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#497 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/31/2011 10:21:58 PM | message detail
Well, Albion was vocal enough about it to make it seem like half the topic!
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#498 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2011 10:56:09 PM | message detail
He tends to do that
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#499 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 8/31/2011 11:07:50 PM | message detail
While I was high on it, I wouldn't go that far. I think its the strongest Western game before ME2 came around (and it might still beat ME2), but strongest Western game still only means its maybe just a high mid carder
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#500 | pjbasis | Posted 8/31/2011 11:13:35 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]