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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1001

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#1 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/26/2011 10:20:33 PM | message detail
Anri forgot the actual opening post or 1000 would have been perfect =/



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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"They established that 5 minutes = 1 hour, which means 10 hours = 12000 hours." -Anagram
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#2 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/26/2011 10:21:02 PM | message detail
1000 was perfect enough as is.

Just the right amount of nostalgia and hardly any bickering!
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#3 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/26/2011 10:23:41 PM | message detail
I think it's funny people thought I would rage at Anri for that when I told Icehawk forever ago he or some random toady of his could make it and I wouldn't give a crap.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
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#4 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/26/2011 10:25:18 PM | message detail
hey guys

4-way tag teams

let's do this
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#5 | Dr_Football | Posted 8/26/2011 10:27:42 PM | message detail
Tag team

Every team has Link

Finals is Link/Cloud vs Link/Link
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#6 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/26/2011 10:28:17 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #003
I think it's funny people thought I would rage at Anri for that when I told Icehawk forever ago he or some random toady of his could make it and I wouldn't give a crap.


That's because people who say that haven't posted in a stats topic in 5+ years!
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#7 | Emporer_Kazbar | Posted 8/26/2011 10:29:05 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #004
hey guys

4-way tag teams

let's do this


512 characters? Jesus, rallying made easy. Just get you and five other people to nom someone and you're set.

Actually, now I'm kind of liking this idea, even though I shouldn't.
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#8 | Jeff Zero | Posted 8/27/2011 1:04:12 AM | message detail
That was amazing Yoblazer.
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#9 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/27/2011 1:06:24 AM | message detail
Jeff Zero posted...
That was amazing Yoblazer.

No kidding. Crono's cameo kills me every time, too. :P
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#10 | swirIdude | Posted 8/27/2011 1:08:27 AM | message detail
Crono should feel honored for being included in that tribute!
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#11 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/27/2011 1:13:11 AM | message detail
Luster - For being the single funniest user in GameFAQs history. Yes, even funnier than Ulti!

Thanks for that comment about me.

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/27/2011 4:02:46 AM | message detail
http://img30.imageshack.us/img30/1844/linkalwayswins1000editi.jpg


XD at that picture.
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#12 | Mega Mana | Posted 8/27/2011 1:15:34 AM | message detail
PartOfYourWorld posted...

IT
ALWAYS
WINS
AND
THANK
GOD
FOR
THAT
#13 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/27/2011 1:17:12 AM | message detail
Awesome way to end the topic.
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#14 | Princess Anri | Posted 8/27/2011 1:18:01 AM | message detail
I swear I had no intention of raining on anyone's parade or anything like that.

It was just to be the first of many gimmick topics that promoted the new TMNT series.

But I'm glad Ulti was fine with it and it turned out a success anyway because I seriously wasn't trying to be a dick.
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#15 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/27/2011 1:19:05 AM | message detail
Hail to the King

Thanks for all the data, TRE and Luster! I also appreciate esoteric data, like with the ever-important soda polls!
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90s games > 00s games
#16 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/27/2011 1:26:46 AM | message detail
Thanks for all the data, TRE and Luster! I also appreciate esoteric data, like with the ever-important soda polls!

TRE only provides data related to contests. And while the Soda polls were great, I just want another continent poll (on a school day) so I can see what the trends would look like if there was an actual ASV.

My current project right now is trying to figure out when the ASV starts up again. I remember the 8/26/2009 age poll having a normal ASV, so it's likely we've already gotten our ASV back this week.
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#17 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/27/2011 2:02:32 AM | message detail
The final post of topic 1000 couldn't have been any better.
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#18 | Lopen | Posted 8/27/2011 3:21:48 AM | message detail
The Anri making topic 1000 was kinda for the best, I guess. Made the topic seem more like a b8 moment or something more than a STATS CLICK CLICK CLICK moment.

That being said it was kind of a jerk move and he knows it was a jerk move.

But I'm glad TOPIC CREATION DRAMA didn't manage to derail the milestone topic in any case.

And uh thanks for the shout outs at the end of that topic guys. Even though I haven't posted here with any regularity since like... well, whenever the last contest was.
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#19 | voltch | Posted 8/27/2011 3:24:20 AM | message detail
yay!
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Vote for this guy in every contest: Sess
#20 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/27/2011 6:18:55 AM | message detail
Thanks for the kind words last topic, guys. For everyone, too, not just me. People who put in all that effort being noticed by their peers is a good thing.

yoblazer is seriously responsible for the two best images in B8 history, btw. Sandbag Zero and Layin' Down The LAW.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Mitch Stuekerjuergen :(
#21 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/27/2011 6:20:26 AM | message detail
Link would absolutely win Most Attractive, as a note. It would just turn into a popularity contest by the end. Watch it be a stupid Link > Cloud with 52.5% final, too. But at least it's a contest Seifer would get into.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Mitch Stuekerjuergen :(
#22 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/27/2011 6:44:14 AM | message detail
Princess Anri posted...
I swear I had no intention of raining on anyone's parade or anything like that.

It was just to be the first of many gimmick topics that promoted the new TMNT series.

But I'm glad Ulti was fine with it and it turned out a success anyway because I seriously wasn't trying to be a dick.


I would have raised a stink if it was someone I didn't like, but you've never done s*** to me so who cares. It made the topic more "Board 8-like" anyway.
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#23 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/27/2011 7:16:29 AM | message detail
Do you guys think Leon Kennedy would do better in such a contest?

Then again, Nathan Drake and Gordon Freeman are also well-known for being "attractive", so...could THEY possibly do better?

Link is boring when he isn't cel-shaded (or cartoon-rendered...whatever's done in LttP) so he doesn't deserve to win that.
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#24 | GranzonEx | Posted 8/27/2011 7:19:39 AM | message detail
Amazing last post of the 1000th topic.
#25 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/27/2011 10:05:37 AM | message detail
If there's one thing I can say about yoblazer, it's that he knows how to finish with a bang.

Well played.
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#26 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/27/2011 10:59:07 AM | message detail | (edited)
You know, I'm listening to the final episode of The Show from GOTD (because I don't think I actually ended up listening to it). Ngamer was talking about how FFX wouldn't have been able to weather Brawl's ASV because of how good Brawl's is compared to FFX's, but I disagree. The anti-Brawl sentiment was big at that point, and it would've been, even against FFX. I think even FFX could have held it off because of anti-Brawl rallying. Here's why I think that. Does anybody remember this match?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3305

Snake barely holds off Cloud. Do you guys remember what Snake's peak lead was? 819. And yet despite MGS's terrible, terrible, terrible day vote, Cloud couldn't get the lead below 300. I know FFVII's ASV doesn't compare to Brawl's (not anymore, at least), but then look at the very next match.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3306

Now Snake was rallied like crazy at the beginning of the match due to its upset of Cloud and people wanted to see if he could actually top Link. Now what was Snake's peak lead against Cloud in this match? Snake had a bigger lead against Cloud after 25 minutes than he had during the entire match the day before. Snake got up to a peak lead of 3700 votes against Cloud that match, and when the ASV rolled around, Cloud sliced the lead down to almost 2000 votes by the end of the match. How do you get from less than 500 votes cut to 1700 votes cut in the span of the day?

Well, for one, Snake was basically so far ahead of Cloud at that point that there was no need to rally. There was no way he was going to lose. And if it HAD somehow gotten close, there was no chance Cloud would have finished it because the site wouldn't have let it happen just like it hadn't let it happen the day before. And I feel like something similar would've happened with FFX/Brawl. FFX would've been able to get out to close to a 2500 vote lead by the time of the ASV because Brawl's Europe vote is even worse than Zelda's, and the fact that Brawl wouldn't have had the huge Power Hour Majora's Mask did against FFX that kept it from building as big of a lead as it could have.

And if Brawl had gotten close, it wouldn't have happened, Nintendo or not. Even Board 8 Nintendites were turning on Brawl and were ready to support FFX. But that's just me because I still think FFX beats Melee!

FFX > Brawl/Melee is my version of "Magus > Squall" because I have the "You can't say Brawl/Melee would've won because the match never happened!" excuse.
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#27 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/27/2011 11:04:24 AM | message detail
DID ULTIMATERIALIZERX SAY HE HAD SOME GRAND REVEAL FOR THE 1000 TOPIC??

Did be
#28 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/27/2011 11:04:41 AM | message detail
Bacon jumped the gun on him though.

He said this back in 999.
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#29 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/27/2011 11:14:27 AM | message detail
By the way, BT needs to show up and give us his Guru nomination. It seems pretty clear that we're going to get a Character Battle at this point because Bacon said that the Character Battle was the most popular choice for a contest, so he can give us his pick!
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#30 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/27/2011 11:27:31 AM | message detail
I agree that FFX would have held off Brawl. It would have (likely and hopefully) jumped out to a pretty big lead in the opening updates as well, but unlike Majora, it would have really piled on the hurt overnight. Even if Brawl would have attempted a thunderous daytime comeback, Square fans, the anti-Brawl defense force, and much of B8 would have fended it off for the FFX win. Brawl was simply an unwanted champion by the majority of hardcore contest fans, and that wouldn't have changed regardless of which finals opponent it drew.
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#31 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/27/2011 11:29:23 AM | message detail
I mean seriously, BRAWL as Game of the Decade? The very idea still makes me facepalm. It's a multiplayer game with worse multiplayer features than $10 Xbox Live games of the same era. GotD my FREAKIN ASS.
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#32 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/27/2011 11:49:34 AM | message detail
Crap, I missed 1000. Can someone summarize
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#33 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/27/2011 11:52:23 AM | message detail
Nostalgia topic, more or less.
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#34 | LOLContests | Posted 8/27/2011 11:53:03 AM | message detail
There was no sort of widespread Brawl "backlash" except for the typical people on this board. I doubt it gets any more anti-votes than FFX does.
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#35 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/27/2011 11:54:16 AM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #032
Crap, I missed 1000. Can someone summarize


500 posts of everyone asking for BT's Guru nomination.
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#36 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/27/2011 11:54:58 AM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #034
There was no sort of widespread Brawl "backlash" except for the typical people on this board. I doubt it gets any more anti-votes than FFX does.


The first few updates against Majora suggest otherwise. Clearly, there was a sentiment against Brawl that extended beyond the board and among those hardcore voters who vote early. Replace MM with FFX, and I still think Brawl loses.
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#37 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/27/2011 11:55:24 AM | message detail
You can think Fallout 3's 45% on Brawl is legit if you want.

But I don't.
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#38 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/27/2011 12:01:20 PM | message detail
FFX would've been able to get out to close to a 2500 vote lead by the time of the ASV because Brawl's Europe vote is even worse than Zelda's

The ASV on the final match was very diluted. It almost looks like a weekend match in terms of hourly vote distribution, but I know for sure that some schools had their last school day on December 23rd (the date of the final match). I know schools in my area would have gone all the way to December 23rd before starting the Christmas break on December 24th. Although with the schools in my area, December 23rd would have been a half day (the length of the school day is cut in half) and they would have gotten out of school around 11:20 AM.
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#39 | LOLContests | Posted 8/27/2011 12:03:53 PM | message detail
The first few updates against Majora suggest otherwise. Clearly, there was a sentiment against Brawl that extended beyond the board and among those hardcore voters who vote early. Replace MM with FFX, and I still think Brawl loses.

Majora was coming off of a huge upset with tons of ralliers still hanging around. That was the reason why it, and all the other entrants in the same position, have overperformed. Look at Snake in 2008.

You can think Fallout 3's 45% on Brawl is legit if you want.

But I don't.


Brawl probably underperformed because it and FFX were seen as the favorites. It's not like it had show any weakness up to that point to imply that there were people anti-voting the game itself.
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#40 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/27/2011 12:05:37 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #039
It's not like it had show any weakness up to that point to imply that there were people anti-voting the game itself.


That's what happens when you face crap for three rounds and then face Melee.
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#41 | LOLContests | Posted 8/27/2011 12:06:55 PM | message detail
That's what happens when you face crap for three rounds and then face Melee.

And neither Melee nor Twilight Princess appeared to be benefiting from anti-votes.
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#42 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/27/2011 12:11:57 PM | message detail
Yes, because we can tell that, having a clear read of both of their strengths prior to the contest, especially compared to Brawl.
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#43 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/27/2011 12:13:11 PM | message detail
Brawl winning just was not fated to happen. This site would not have let it happen. We've never had a bad champion before; every champion sans L-Block (Link, Cloud, FFVII, OOT, Legend of Zelda, Sephiroth) has received the respect of a large majority of the site, and L-Block was a different category of events.

I think Brawl's presence in the final could possibly have tipped MM/FFX in MM's favor though, as there was only a gap of 200 votes there. Before and during that match I thought MM had a better chance against Brawl in the final.
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#44 | MegaWentEvil | Posted 8/27/2011 12:21:14 PM | message detail
Problem?
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#45 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/27/2011 12:23:24 PM | message detail | (edited)
Though I disagree with your analysis of why Cloud was able to cut so much against Snake the second day. While Snake had less rallying later in the day the second day, I doubt he rallied more than a few hundred on the first day in total, so that wouldn't really explain it. Most of it is from Snake being massively bandwagoned/rallied at the start of the match on the second day, putting him far above his normal trendline. Sans bandwagon, Cloud would have beaten him easily with no Sephiroth in the poll, and by the afternoon, Snake wasn't really getting any more votes from the bandwagon.

That is, the first day was pretty close to normal trends. The second day had wildly aberrant trends due to bandwagoning.
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90s games > 00s games
#46 | GranzonEx | Posted 8/27/2011 12:29:05 PM | message detail
FFX would have beaten Brawl to a pulp. Nothing in the GotD could have stood up to FFX without massive rallying.
#47 | H__RR____H | Posted 8/27/2011 12:29:48 PM | message detail
SB didn't even recognize a suggestion for a best-console contest? Either he doesn't care for the idea or nobody suggested it...for shame.
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
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#48 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/27/2011 12:33:26 PM | message detail

From: H__RR____H | #047
SB didn't even recognize a suggestion for a best-console contest? Either he doesn't care for the idea or nobody suggested it...for shame.


Either way, we're in good shape because it means he and everyone else realizes it's a bad idea!
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#49 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/27/2011 1:32:51 PM | message detail
H__RR____H | Posted 8/27/2011 3:29:48 PM | message detail | quote
SB didn't even recognize a suggestion for a best-console contest? Either he doesn't care for the idea or nobody suggested it...for shame.


Well, there aren't a whole lot of consoles compared to games or characters. And a best console contest would be limited to 32 consoles at most. And even then, there would be some bad fodder in a 32 console contest.
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#50 | LOLContests | Posted 8/27/2011 2:05:16 PM | message detail
1) Playstation 2
8) Gameboy

4) Xbox 360
5) Gamecube

3) Wii
6) DS

2) NES
7) Dreamcast

1) Super Nintendo
8) Xbox

4) Genesis
5) Playstation 3

3) Nintendo 64
6) PSP

2) Playstation
7) Game Boy Advance
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Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest!