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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 998

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#1 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/3/2011 7:48:06 PM | message detail
zzz



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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"We're only gonna score 17 points?" -LOL Tom Brady
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#2 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/3/2011 7:48:25 PM | message detail
A shame topic 1000 might go to waste.
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#3 | GranzonEx | Posted 6/3/2011 7:48:57 PM | message detail
So close to topic 1000 and still no sign of a contest :(
#4 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/5/2011 11:11:33 PM | message detail
A shame topic 1000 might go to waste.

Topic 1000 will probably involve us discussing the nomination phase of the contest. Maybe even the bracket itself if we get the bracket before Topic 1000 is created.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#5 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 6/6/2011 1:14:37 AM | message detail
Luster, I deleted your PM by accident. Can you send it again?
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
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#6 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/6/2011 1:18:02 AM | message detail
Alright, I sent it.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#7 | Emporer_Kazbar | Posted 6/6/2011 1:37:16 AM | message detail
A while back there was a thread where there was a brief discussion on the contest strength of John Marston from RDR. I personally think he'd only be slightly stronger than Niko during his first contest after the release of GTA4, and that the longer we go before the next contest, it's going to keep waning. Can I get some opinions on this?
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#8 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/6/2011 1:50:33 AM | message detail
Well, on one hand, RDR kinda seems to garner far less hate than any GTA. And...maybe a cowboy would be more-liked than a street thug?
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Currently Playing - Chrono Trigger DS
#9 | LOLContests | Posted 6/6/2011 9:07:24 AM | message detail
Looks like with E3 we'll probably have to wait at least another week for nominations to go up.

*Sigh*
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"Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka
Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest!
#10 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 6/6/2011 9:15:59 AM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #004
A shame topic 1000 might go to waste.

Topic 1000 will probably involve us discussing the nomination phase of the contest. Maybe even the bracket itself if we get the bracket before Topic 1000 is created.


Nominations and talk/speculation about the contest's format will surely propel things to 1000 long before the bracket's out.

Been awhile since I posted in one of these. It'll probably be awhile until I post again.
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Wylvane
Guru Contest Winner Black Turtle is a wonderful user.
#11 | LOLContests | Posted 6/6/2011 9:29:52 PM | message detail | (edited)
Why would you have a contest during the high times? A contest in the slow times would bring more people.

But the reason site hits lower in the fall months is because people go back to school and are too busy to play games/look up info about them online. It's not due to a lack of desire. If people *can't* go to GameFAQS a contest isn't going to change anything.

I mean, there could be some sort of minimum level of satisfactory site hits that they're failing to meet in the off months, and if so, I could see putting a contest there to attract people, but I'm not sure that GameFAQS is in such poor straits.
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"Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka
Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest!
#12 | Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 6/7/2011 10:04:21 AM | message detail
Smash 4 announced, but to early to discuss details aside from 3DS/Wii U compatibility.

Nintendo super boost confirmed
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Game of the Decade? More like Guru of the Decade mirite?
#13 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2011 10:39:29 AM | message detail
There are approximately 6470 registered users currently using the message boards.

Wow, that's insanely high just for this time of the day. Especially because the ASV hasn't even started yet in today's poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#14 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2011 11:06:51 AM | message detail
Nintendo's E3 press conference had a very significant effect on the trends of today's poll. Hourly vote totals so far in today's poll:

Time | Votes
1:00 | 4096
2:00 | 2693
3:00 | 2017
4:00 | 1559
5:00 | 1195
6:00 | 1107
7:00 | 1358
8:00 | 1563
9:00 | 1761
10:00 | 1918
11:00 | 1979
12:00 | 2127
13:00 | 1517
14:00 | 1905


The last 2 hours are quite interesting. Vote totals dropped off hard while Nintendo was giving their press conference, and then they recovered after it ended. I saw this yesterday with the Microsoft and Sony press conferences as well. This type of stuff also occurs during the Super Bowl as well.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#15 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 6/7/2011 7:06:29 PM | message detail
Would you say the Press Conferences had a bigger or smaller effect on the polls than the Super Bowl?
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Pokemon VGC2011 NW Regional - Top 8
Hopefully, we'll meet in Indianapolis...
#16 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2011 8:11:37 PM | message detail | (edited)
All of the press conferences seemed to have a slightly bigger effect on the polls than the Super Bowl. While the Super Bowl takes place, it only affects the amount of traffic coming from the US and Canada and has no effect on the rest of the world (since they don't care about it). E3 is a different story, as it would result in reduced traffic from all parts of the world while the press conferences are going on.

Overall, it seems to be Nintendo > Sony > Microsoft in terms of how much their press conferences affected the polls. Nintendo seemed to have the biggest effect and Microsoft has the smallest effect. Even Microsoft's press conference had a noticeable effect on the polls.

EA and Ubisoft's press conferences had absolutely no effect on the polls at all.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
#17 | red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2011 11:56:48 AM | message detail
Come on summer contest. Don't want another fall/winter contest, I want a summer contest!
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90s games > 00s games
#18 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/8/2011 12:25:02 PM | message detail
We would have to get a contest announcement before the end of this month to have a chance at a summer contest. Best chance for a summer contest is for the contest to start no later on August 1st.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#19 | red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2011 12:26:24 PM | message detail
1 week of nominations, 2 weeks of bracketmaking, let's do this starting July 1. It won't happen but that would be so amazing.
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90s games > 00s games
#20 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/8/2011 12:28:56 PM | message detail
Very unlikely we get a contest announcement immediately after E3 ends. Maybe near the end of this month, but not right after E3 ends.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#21 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 6/8/2011 12:35:12 PM | message detail
I will not stop until all of America considers Link and Cloud the unofficial boys of summer.

Bide your time, baseball.
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#22 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2011 12:36:09 PM | message detail
Hey, I'd welcome a Summer Contest over a summer of baseball!
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#23 | red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2011 12:37:10 PM | message detail
July and August for a contest, September and October for baseball- sounds good to me!
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90s games > 00s games
#24 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2011 12:40:12 PM | message detail
More like July and August for a contest, back to football in September
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#25 | red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2011 12:41:56 PM | message detail
Plenty of time for football in November, December, and January.
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90s games > 00s games
#26 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 6/8/2011 12:42:49 PM | message detail
1 week of nominations, 2 weeks of bracketmaking, let's do this starting July 1. It won't happen but that would be so amazing.

1 week of noms seems way too short. Also, you can probably add 1 week of Vote-in polls between the nominations and the release of the bracket. I'd say 1 month between the start of nominations and the start of the contest seems more realistic.

Bold prediction: topic 1000 reaches 500 before topic 999.
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#27 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2011 12:43:07 PM | message detail
But the great thing is that football is fun and watchable any time of the year, unlike baseball!
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#28 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2011 12:43:45 PM | message detail

From: Ultimaphazon | #026
1 week of noms seems way too short.


Noms used to last for just a matter of days, and things turned out fine!

TRE can give the specifics on stuff like this.
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#29 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 6/8/2011 12:48:20 PM | message detail | (edited)
Oh, I didn't mean 1 week would actually be too short. I just meant that I don't think Bacon is going to limit the nomination period to 1 week. It feels like it's been much longer the last few times, though I don't know the exact values.
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MvC3: Haggar/Ammy/Wesker
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#30 | red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2011 12:49:32 PM | message detail
I also hope that Bacon will let us nominate the same character multiple times for the first time. I'll be giving 14 nominations to Crono and 1 for the Guru pick. Oh, and there should be an "all my noms to Link" button that gives all 15 of your nominations to Link with the simple press of a button.
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90s games > 00s games
#31 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2011 12:50:28 PM | message detail
Oh, yeah, realistically speaking, Bacon won't limit noms to one week. That's never been his style. Everything's been drawn out since he started running contests.
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#32 | Haste_2 | Posted 6/8/2011 4:19:46 PM | message detail
I say nominations should be one hour long. Bacon would tell us in advance, on Board 8 only, what time they will be open. Then we can finally get all those cult characters in!
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#33 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/8/2011 4:24:05 PM | message detail
And the noble nine misses the contest or gets low seeds.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest.
#34 | red sox 777 | Posted 6/8/2011 8:23:23 PM | message detail
And the noble nine misses the contest or gets low seeds.

If that's the case I'm nomming the whole Noble Nine, minus the ones I don't like.
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90s games > 00s games
#35 | pjbasis | Posted 6/8/2011 8:25:22 PM | message detail
Football is the Smash Bros. of sports.

Fun and casual, but people really shouldn't take it so seriously.
#36 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2011 8:29:05 PM | message detail

From: pjbasis | #035
Football is the Smash Bros. of sports.

Fun and casual, but people really shouldn't take it so seriously.


What is this terrible post?
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#37 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/8/2011 8:29:47 PM | message detail
American football or soccer?
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest.
#38 | pjbasis | Posted 6/8/2011 8:38:12 PM | message detail | (edited)

From: LeonhartFour | #156
What is this terrible post?


Come on man.

There's a reason Smash isn't regarded in the same light as Street Fighter or Soul Calibur in the fighting community.

charmander: american
#39 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2011 8:38:52 PM | message detail
No, I mean comparing it to football like that.

Terrible post.
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#40 | pjbasis | Posted 6/8/2011 8:39:18 PM | message detail
I know I was just being coy.
#41 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2011 9:00:31 PM | message detail
Hmmm...I'll be interested to see how this poll plays out.
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#42 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 6/8/2011 9:17:56 PM | message detail
TRE can give the specifics on stuff like this.

Well since you asked...

Gap between nominations opening and closing:
Villains Contest - 6 days, 21 hours, 39 minutes
Character Battle IV - 4 days, 1 hour, 25 minutes
Best. Series. Ever. - 31 days, 15 hours, 6 minutes, 4 seconds
Character Battle V - 23 days, 1 hour, 17 minutes, 25 seconds
Quotes Contest - 27 days, 7 hours, 10 minutes, 29 seconds
Character Battle VI - 12 days, 20 hours, 27 minutes, 18 seconds
Character Battle VII - 12 days, 1 hour, 51 minutes, 50 seconds
Best. Game. Ever. 2009 - 91 days, 2 hours, 15 minutes, 18 seconds
Character Battle VIII - 19 days, 25 minutes, 42 seconds
Game of the Decade - 19 days, 2 hours

CJayC's earlier contests had short nomination periods but CJayC's later contests had longer nomination periods than almost all of SBAllen's contests. Best. Game. Ever. 2009 is a big exception, though.
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Pokemon VGC2011 NW Regional - Top 8
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#43 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 6/8/2011 9:21:08 PM | message detail
#44 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/8/2011 9:27:59 PM | message detail
The yes to maybe is still roughly the same, just the distribution is different. Revolution also had Brawl to help it.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest.
#45 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/8/2011 9:37:48 PM | message detail
This is closest comparison I can find to this poll for Wii

The yes to maybe is still roughly the same, just the distribution is different. Revolution also had Brawl to help it.


That was a poll from 2005, before Brawl was ever announced.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#46 | red sox 777 | Posted 6/9/2011 5:32:48 AM | message detail
Football is plenty serious.
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90s games > 00s games
#47 | red sox 777 | Posted 6/9/2011 5:34:31 AM | message detail
I remember Revolution jumped something like 20 points on Gamefaqs between the pre-E3 and post-E3 poll in 2005.
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90s games > 00s games
#48 | GintokiSaotome | Posted 6/9/2011 9:02:13 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#49 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/9/2011 9:04:15 PM | message detail
Even worse, Super Mario is back in 5th place in this poll. Which is pretty bad.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#50 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/9/2011 9:45:41 PM | message detail
Doesn't help that Mario has two options and would probably perform badly anyways because a Mario game is going to be released, even if it wasn't anounced.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest.