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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 996

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#151 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 4/12/2011 5:02:46 AM | message detail
I don't think GoldenEye trashes Super Metroid. Heck, GoldenEye might even lose to Metroid Prime now. After all, the 2009 x-stats have GoldenEye losing to Resident Evil 4, both Kingdom Hearts games, and both Metal Gear Solid 3 and 4. According to the 2010 stats, Metroid Prime beats all of those games. And I'd never expect Metroid Prime to trash Super Metroid.
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#152 | HaRRicH | Posted 4/12/2011 5:34:39 AM | message detail
Sora's turned around a similar percentage on Aeris before in a smaller time-frame, and we know the match would not resemble that anymore. Really, I don't know how much the rest of the poll's options go in favor of the SNES; The NES and Game Boy-options would be more likely to go to the SNES, but the systems from the N64 onward would be more favorable to the N64. If we divided them accordingly, that'd make SNES ~62% instead of ~70%. The N64's going to hold up better than the SNES directly in the past six years (just look at the contests held before and after 2005 when that poll was taken), and the NES/Game Boy are dwindling faster than the Gamecube/DS/Wii.

The Virtual Console can help some SNES-games retain strength to some degree, but that goes for the N64 too...and all of the N64's big hitters outside of GE are available on it. I don't believe Square put any SNES-games online for that service (correct me if I'm wrong), so part of that library's decaying a little faster. If people haven't thought about the systems in awhile and tried to reference that, it'd go in the N64's favor.


Meh, I'll stop -- I'm arguing too small of things for it now. The N64 came from this site's Golden Era, its top three games can beat (if not crush) the top three games of any other system, its multiplayer was the most significant ever before online came into play, and fans of its library generally likes ALL of its library. Those points are hard to overcome.
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#153 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 4/12/2011 7:38:27 AM | message detail
Unfortunately HaRRicH, you've convinced me. On no other site is Ocarina of Time so strong. And with the older consoles degrading in strength, well,...no, the N64 would SURELY fall when the Smart Voters flood in, right? For however great and revolutionary its games were, people complain more often about the N64's games aging badly than they do for the SNES's games, plus the N64 basically forecasted (if not outright started) Nintendo's decline in the video game industry.

I'd still pick the N64 to win a contest, but then again it's just like Brawl winning a GotD contest. People are going to see the N64 doing so well, then rally against it because "there's no way we're going to allow the N64, the console where Nintendo started its current negative policy of alienating third-party developers and which continued to use cartridges even as the PS1 used CDs, to win a Best System Ever contest".

Speaking of which, I have to wonder what would've happened if Nintendo's 5th-gen console used CDs instead of cartridges. It's incredibly likely that FF7 (which, for those not in the know, started out as an N64 game) would've stayed on the Nintendo system, and at the very least would not have been nearly as big on the PS1, which is huge because FF7 was basically a sort of "savior" for the PS1 anyway.
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#154 | charmander6000 | Posted 4/12/2011 8:06:07 AM | message detail
You have to remember that RPGs were not that popular in North America until FFVII came out, but I guess you can say that it was part of the push for the Playstation.

Even without FFVII the Playstation would have done well on its own. The system still came out with many other good games and it did have the advantage of having no Nintendo competition for 3rd party developers.
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#155 | AxemPink | Posted 4/12/2011 8:11:40 AM | message detail
http://www.g4tv.com/deathmatch/best-franchises-2011/results/

Round 3 is over, Round 4 has not started yet.

Zelda vs. Assassin's Creed
Mass Effect vs. Starcraft

Predict the winners of this and the final!

I'm guessing Zelda and Starcraft, then Starcraft wins the finals. Given enough time, the Starcraft fanbase will vote for Starcraft as many times as it takes for Starcraft to win. They have 6 days to come back against any lead Mass Effect jumps out to, which should be sufficient considering they beat Warcraft and crunched The Elder Scrolls within 4 days, and rallying should only get stronger from here. Not sure how long the finals last, but if it's at least 6 days again, they probably do the same thing there.

On a side note, assuming a consistent Starcraft would suggest Silent Hill is marginally stronger than The Elder Scrolls. This seems...unlikely.
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#156 | LeonhartFour | Posted 4/12/2011 12:02:42 PM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #151
I don't think GoldenEye trashes Super Metroid. Heck, GoldenEye might even lose to Metroid Prime now.


Prime probably beats Super Metroid fairly easily, honestly. I really doubt GoldenEye comes anywhere close to losing to Super Mario Kart.
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#157 | charmander6000 | Posted 4/12/2011 12:09:24 PM | message detail
Super Metroid > Metroid Prime is an upset that I would consider and probably take, but Metroid Prime should be the favourite right now.
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#158 | HaRRicH | Posted 4/12/2011 12:28:55 PM | message detail
Goldeneye killed MK64 in BGE2. It's such a weird match (it had FF7 and SMRPG too) that I hate to rely on it too much for specifics, but there's a big documented difference between them and MK64 should beat SMK. We've seen SM barely beat SMK twice in that same contest, so...yeah, GE's the favorite.
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#159 | red sox 777 | Posted 4/12/2011 2:14:38 PM | message detail
2005 was the year of the big Nintendo Boost, so while N64 would do better now than then, there hasn't been any earthshattering changes in the site since then that would favor the N64 to a huge extent. The N64 has a very strong lineup at the top, but it's extremely top-heavy. If you want to compare game by game, N64 may do well with the first 10 games or so, but after that SNES completely dominates. N64 runs out of games when SNES still has about 500 left.

I think it's important to remember that Zelda fans are not drones. Nintendo/Zelda fans are very good at falling in line/strategic voting/turnout, but that's quite distinct from being drones. In this case, they prefer the SNES when you weigh the systems as whole, and the margin was so big when the question was asked before that I really don't see it having flipped.
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#160 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 4/12/2011 3:04:10 PM | message detail
Anytime I mention that Super Metroid could be a really strong game, you guys all say that "it almost lost to Super Mario Kart". Well, we underestimated Metroid Prime because "it lost to Vice City", and look where that got us. For the record, the 2010 stats have Prime getting 66% on Vice City (and 56% on Kingdom Hearts). Also Samus and Ridley both exceeded expectations in our last character contest. I think there's been a Metroid series boost since BGE 2009; it's the best way to explain why everything Metroid-related has exceeded expectations in contests ever since Other M's announcement.
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#161 | LeonhartFour | Posted 4/12/2011 3:51:52 PM | message detail
At least Metroid Prime has an excuse for losing to Vice City (That is, Paper Mario was in the poll). It's possible that Metroid as a whole has boosted since 2009 (though I don't know why aside from random variation), but Super Metroid has no such excuse. I have a hard time believing Super Mario Kart would be up there where Prime was in GOTD.
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#162 | charmander6000 | Posted 4/12/2011 4:00:06 PM | message detail | (edited)
I don't think you're giving SMK enough credit. Mario Kart 64 got about 30% on FFVII while being held back by SF64. While I would take MK64 over SMK, others wouldn't and most people would agree that the match would at least be close.
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#163 | LeonhartFour | Posted 4/12/2011 4:09:33 PM | message detail
Oh, Super Mario Kart is a strong game, no doubt, but there's only so close to Prime Super Metroid can be before Mario Kart starts contending with RE4, MGS3, and games of that level.

Granted, none of us thought Super Mario Kart could contend with Super Metroid back in 2009 either, but that's beside the point...!
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#164 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 4/12/2011 4:49:21 PM | message detail
I was never suggesting that Super Metroid could actually beat Prime or GoldenEye. I was simply suggesting that it wouldn't get its doors blown off. Now that we think about it...

Metroid Prime (2009g) has a strength of 25.59 against Base Link.
Super Metroid (2009g) has a strength of 22.61 against Base Link.


Metroid Prime 55.82% 68,391
Super Metroid 44.18% 54,124
TOTAL VOTES 122,515

Metroid Prime wins with 55.82% of the vote!
A 14,267 vote margin of victory.
Paste this match result to impress friends and co-workers!

You know, I think this should be fairly accurate.

LeonhartFour posted...
It's possible that Metroid as a whole has boosted since 2009 (though I don't know why aside from random variation), but Super Metroid has no such excuse.

Uh, a new Metroid title was announced since then? From what I heard Other M was drawing a surprising amount of press attention to the franchise compared to previous installments (likely due to Team Ninja's involvement), so that may have caused the Metroid games to rise up in playrate on the site (why Samus's Smash appearances wouldn't cause this I'm not exactly sure, but whatever). And for what it's worth, Metroid Prime saw a rerelease between BGE 2009 and GotD.

Super Mario Galaxy or Super Metroid, who've you got?
Silly question: What's the strongest game from GotD that you'd pick MOM to beat?
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#165 | LeonhartFour | Posted 4/12/2011 8:42:15 PM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #164
Uh, a new Metroid title was announced since then?


Other M was already out by the time GOTD hit and had been panned.
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#166 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 4/13/2011 4:04:30 AM | message detail
I thought you were talking about a Metroid series boost between BGE 2009 and GotD.

New hypothetical matches:

StarCraft vs. Mass Effect
Mario Kart 64 vs. God of War
The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening vs. Shadow of the Colossus
Super Smash Bros. vs. Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal
Kingdom Hearts 2 vs. Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots
Xenogears vs. Skies of Arcadia
Chrono Cross vs. StarCraft II: Wings of Liberty
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#167 | IloveYoda | Posted 4/13/2011 11:46:33 AM | message detail
StarCraft
Mario Kart 64
The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening
Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots
Skies of Arcadia
StarCraft II: Wings of Liberty

Fairly easy matchups other than Xenogear/Skies and LoZ:LA/SotC.
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#168 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/13/2011 11:57:38 AM | message detail
Oh man, if Zelda wins this thing I will laff.
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#169 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 4/15/2011 12:05:34 AM | message detail
Bump
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#170 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 4/15/2011 4:29:46 AM | message detail
More hypothetical matches:

Uncharted 2: Among Thieves vs. Super Mario Galaxy 2
Fallout 3 vs. Mass Effect 2
New Super Mario Bros. Wii vs. Donkey Kong Country Returns
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs. Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas vs. Red Dead Redemption
God of War II vs. God of War III
Super Mario Sunshine vs. Halo: Reach

...you can probably see a theme going on here.
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#171 | HaRRicH | Posted 4/15/2011 7:02:43 AM | message detail
Fun poll today. For what it's worth, ~94% don't think they'll get bored of a Portal gun.

Also, there's a real chance Portal 2's released in two hours (and if not today, then on the 19th anyway). Should this game deliver and its sales represent that, do you have any expectations what that'll mean for GLaDOS or WCC in a contest yet?
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#172 | LeonhartFour | Posted 4/15/2011 11:03:37 AM | message detail
Probably nothing. I can't imagine it'd do anything for the WCC at all since its popularity isn't really all that dependent upon Portal. If GlaDOS actually has an active role where she's seen more often, then it could help her out.
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#173 | paulg235 | Posted 4/15/2011 11:05:15 AM | message detail
GlaDOS will probably be a midcarder and WWC will likely stay the same.
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#174 | AxemPink | Posted 4/15/2011 12:12:28 PM | message detail
I think WCC has room to go up. The real message to take away from its 4-way hijinks is that without that format it wouldn't have even beaten Tidus. Last contest, it didn't beat The Boss by very much and almost got doubled by Luigi. Even if it's relying heavily on joke strength, more exposure should help the joke connect better.
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#175 | LeonhartFour | Posted 4/15/2011 1:35:24 PM | message detail
I dunno. A significant amount of WCC's strength is just that it's a cube, and so it doesn't need, well, anything to have that level of strength. I mean, it'd be like saying a new Tetris game would help L-Block.

Well, not really, since everyone and their mom is at least familiar with what Tetris is, but I can't imagine what new they could do with the WCC to make it more popular. I suppose it just depends on how many new people they get to play Portal 2.
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#176 | IloveYoda | Posted 4/15/2011 4:49:09 PM | message detail
How do you think Atlas and P-body might do come next contest? Both are gonna be pretty well exposed to people in co-op. I don't expect them to be near GLaDOS or WCC, but they might make it to low midcarder status.
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#177 | HaRRicH | Posted 4/15/2011 7:43:07 PM | message detail
I could see one of them sneaking into a contest (are Atlus and P-body their official names now?), but I want to see how well-received its co-op mode is first.

I expect good things for GLaDOS though -- it seemed like you're going to see her early in the game from past previews, and she can't continue staying a stranger considering the success of Portal 1 and the hype for Portal 2. It took Gordon Freeman a second game to stop being a joke here, and this could make Portal Valve's top new franchise. If GLaDOS can get a quality picture too, she's going to be in good shape. At the least, you shouldn't see Kirby double her again.
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#178 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 4/15/2011 9:52:03 PM | message detail
It took a second game for Commander Shepard to stop being a joke, too.
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#179 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 4/15/2011 10:21:00 PM | message detail
http://www.g4tv.com/deathmatch/best-franchises-2011/results/

For no reason whatsoever, I'll see if I can accurately predict the extrapolated strength hierarchy of the franchises involved in this.

First Half:
1) Legend of Zelda
2) Assassin's Creed
3) Halo
4) Fallout
5) Mario
6) Gears of War
7) Final Fantasy
8) Grand Theft Auto
9) God of War
10) Call of Duty
11) Half-Life
12) Castlevania
13) Battlefield
14) Civilization
15) Gran Turismo
16) Madden NFL

Second Half:
1) Mass Effect
2) Metal Gear
3) Mortal Kombat
4) StarCraft
5) Resident Evil
6) Pokemon
7) Warcraft
8) Metroid
9) Uncharted
10) Silent Hill
11) The Elder Scrolls
12) Street Fighter
13) Tomb Raider
14) Pac-Man
15) Need for Speed
16) X-COM

Okay, how did I do?
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#180 | charmander6000 | Posted 4/15/2011 10:50:22 PM | message detail | (edited)
The x-stats so far are

1. The Legend of Zelda - 50.00%
2. Assassin's Creed - 48.00%
3. Halo - 46.00%
4. Fallout - 45.12%
5. Super Mario Bros. - 45.00%
6. Gears of War - 43.32%
7. Final Fantasy - 42.45%
8. Grand Theft Auto - 36.00%
9. Call of Duty - 34.56%
10. God of War - 34.56%
11. Half-Life - 32.40%
12. Battlefield - 25.92%
13. Castlevania - 22.81%
14. Civilization - 18.95%
15. Gran Turismo - 14.52%
16. Madden NFL - 9.90%

1. Mass Effect - 50.00%
2. Metal Gear - 42.00%
3. Mortal Kombat - 38.00%
4. Starcraft - 37.00%
5. Resident Evil - 36.00%
6. Warcraft - 34.78%
7. Pokemon - 34.56%
8. Metroid - 31.16%
9. Uncharted - 30.61%
10. Silent Hill - 30.34%
11. The Elder Scrolls - 29.60%
12. Street Fighter - 28.42%
13. Pac-Man - 25.92%
14. Tomb Raider - 24.49%
15. Need for Speed - 17.63%
16. X-COM - 13.91%
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#181 | AxemPink | Posted 4/15/2011 11:09:30 PM | message detail
Heh. Starcraft was at 28% at its lowest point in this match, so it's recovered a pretty good amount!
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#182 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 4/15/2011 11:39:06 PM | message detail
For whatever reason I have an odd feeling that Zelda, Gears, and Mortal Kombat are all overperforming because each of those franchises is getting a new game soon.
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#183 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 4/16/2011 4:39:27 AM | message detail
Considering WCC made an appearance in only one stage in Portal 1, I could see it boosting if it has a more prominent role in P2. GlaDOS certainly should boost considering she does have a more prominent role apparently. Don't think the two new guys will impress, if they even make it in.
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#184 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 4/16/2011 5:47:33 AM | message detail
Random Questions:

How well would the AC, ME, and SC franchises would fare in a GameFAQs contest setting?

What game should we consider the fodder line? (as of now I'm thinking WoW)

Would StarCraft hold off Mario Galaxy?

Would Mario Galaxy 2 defeat Golden Sun?

How much did Fallout 3 overperform in its exit match in GotD?
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#185 | LOLContests | Posted 4/16/2011 6:24:29 AM | message detail
How well would the AC, ME, and SC franchises would fare in a GameFAQs contest setting?

Probably not much better than DMC did in the Series, especially the last two. AC probably has a little more steam in it.

What game should we consider the fodder line? (as of now I'm thinking WoW)

Skies of Arcadia, or Vyse Fodder Line Redux.

Would StarCraft hold off Mario Galaxy?

Galaxy
probably wins that match pretty easily, even if the final numbers are somewhat close.

Would Mario Galaxy 2 defeat Golden Sun?

Probably, although I guess it could go either way.

How much did Fallout 3 overperform in its exit match in GotD?

Somewhat. It definitely looked better than it did in the other matches.
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#186 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 4/16/2011 9:09:03 AM | message detail | (edited)
For no reason whatsoever I'm going to pose more questions, along with my thoughts on LOLContests's answers.

Questions:

Would Mass Effect 2 defeat anything from the GotD field weaker than Twilight Princess?

When will the GotD contest's entrants be available for simulation on "lol x-stats"?

Rank the following games in order of contest strength from strongest to weakest:

Baldur's Gate II
Civilization IV
Deus Ex
Left 4 Dead 2
Kirby's Epic Yarn
Metroid: Other M
Silent Hill 2

And now let's try some stronger meat, rank these games too!:

GTA: San Andreas
Red Dead Redemption
Resident Evil 2
Star Fox 64
Street Fighter II
Super Mario Galaxy 2
Uncharted 2

Ah, and how about some high midcarders?:

Fallout 3
Half-Life 2
Metal Gear Solid 3
Metal Gear Solid 4
Metroid Prime
Shadow of the Colossus
Zelda: Link's Awakening

As far as LOLContests's answers, here's what I'd say:

-I would pick AC to beat DMC no question. SC is a tougher question; it's not even guaranteed that both SC games are stronger than any DMC, which is basically what a PC-exclusive two-game franchise with a twelve-year difference between the only games in its franchise would need to win that. I think ME would be the strongest out of all these four franchises pretty easily, especially once ME3 comes out.

-Skies seems far too weak to be a fodderline to me. Going by extrapolated strength, it fails to break 30% on Twilight Princess, which does not sound like "fodder line" to me.
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#187 | LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2011 10:30:32 AM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #185
Probably not much better than DMC did in the Series, especially the last two. AC probably has a little more steam in it.


Man, all three of those series would probably handle DMC without much trouble. I don't see any of those series only getting 30% on Sonic.
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#188 | Big Bob | Posted 4/16/2011 10:48:14 AM | message detail
WCC won't be in Portal 2. *spoilers* You murdered him, remember?
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#189 | LOLContests | Posted 4/16/2011 12:15:10 PM | message detail
AC should beat DMC yeah, but I worry that ME and SC would not be considered "real" series, as they only have two games.
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#190 | LeonhartFour | Posted 4/16/2011 2:56:41 PM | message detail
You don't need to be a "real series" to beat DMC.
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#191 | HaRRicH | Posted 4/16/2011 3:58:38 PM | message detail
I'd take ME to beat DMC pretty easily.
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#192 | Evillordexdeath | Posted 4/16/2011 4:00:11 PM | message detail
I also believe Mass Effect would have an easy time defeating DMC, quite honestly.
#193 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 4/16/2011 4:15:00 PM | message detail
I really doubt DMC would be close to Mass Effect. Frankly, I think ME doubling DMC would be a more likely scenario.

Assassin's Creed should be a fair amount stronger, too. Starcraft would probably be fairly close to DMC, though.

IloveYoda posted...
How do you think Atlas and P-body might do come next contest? Both are gonna be pretty well exposed to people in co-op. I don't expect them to be near GLaDOS or WCC, but they might make it to low midcarder status.

If they make it in, I'd have low expectations for them - probably high fodder at best. It's going to be a great year for GlaDOS, though. :D (WCC will stay about the same, I think.)
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#194 | HaRRicH | Posted 4/17/2011 6:05:12 AM | message detail | (edited)
Yeah, the big issue right off the bat with them is figuring out which one gets into a contest. It'll be like picking between Bub and Bob...and (not counting 2002) the closest either one of them were to being nominated was Bub getting next to last place in a vote-in right after the GameSpot hijinx they pulled shortly before that.

Atlus and P-body will have better support through the strength of their game, but they're just co-stars for one half of the game, too. We'd also have to see the fanbase actively side with one of them (or both of them despite each other) just to see them make it in...and that'll prove to be difficult. If we're looking at playable characters from Portal, I'd rather see what Chell does. She'll have both Portal-games behind her, and who knows what kind of emphasis Portal 2's going to put on her character-wise yet.

As somebody already mentioned though, GLaDOS should be the big winner by the end of all this.
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#195 | LeonhartFour | Posted 4/17/2011 11:21:53 AM | message detail
Who the heck is Chell?

If that's the character you actually control, she'd probably do atrociously because they'd have the same reaction I did. The only time you can ever see her face is with some portal manipulation.
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#196 | AxemPink | Posted 4/17/2011 12:01:21 PM | message detail
Haha, Starcraft.
http://www.g4tv.com/deathmatch/best-franchises-2011/results/
At its lowest point several hours into the first day, Starcraft was at 28%. This was only one step above, like, Pac Man. I screencapped it just in case Starcraft did, well, what Starcraft is known for.
http://i52.photobucket.com/albums/g3/CzarMagus/MASSEFFECT.png
When I went to bed last night, Starcraft was at 38%. Great recovery, but it wasn't nearly enough and I had pretty much given up on Starcraft pulling through here like I had predicted.
Then this happened:
http://www.facebook.com/HuskyStarcraft/posts/139465262793693
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7D8ZPzH4SBU
Now Starcraft is at 52% with almost an entire day left to still rise. Starcraft at its nadir in this match gets 27% on current Starcraft.
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Black turtle beat me, o noes!
#197 | HaRRicH | Posted 4/17/2011 12:16:40 PM | message detail
Right, and I don't think Chell'd do that well either. That said, you see her more in-game than you see yourself as Gordon Freeman in the HL-games, and -- while her face isn't on the cover or anything -- the point of the very beginning of Portal is so you can see yourself as you go through a portal, so I don't think visually recognizing her would be too bad. She's got a new look in Portal 2 though, so that may complicate things. I also don't know if Chell ever officially became her name or not (it didn't in-game for Portal 1, anyway, though they're using the same person for Portal 2 whatever her name is; "Chell" came from some in-game files like G-Man did, I believe).

I think your reaction would be typical based off of Portal 1. Portal 2 may or may not change that.
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http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
Nominate E P O N A.
#198 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 4/17/2011 4:06:17 PM | message detail
No Mass Effect! :(

It'll be supremely stupid if a two-game series with twelve years separating said two games wins this. And as of now the only alternative is...Zelda drones.

BTW Chell's appearance in Portal was apparently modeled after the same person who voices Zero Suit Samus in SSBB.
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Currently Playing - Baldur's Gate
Upcoming - StarCraft: Brood War, Baldur's Gate II
#199 | AxemPink | Posted 4/17/2011 9:12:40 PM | message detail
Starcraft up to 55%.

Save us, Zelda!

Someone alert Zelda Universe!
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Black turtle beat me, o noes!
#200 | red sox 777 | Posted 4/17/2011 9:25:10 PM | message detail
We need a new contest. This summer would be the perfect time.
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90s games > 00s games