GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 995
This topic series f***ing dies in the offseason, my goodness. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- "Oh god my uterus just throbbed in tune to Ode to Joy composed by Ulthoven." -ToukaOone |
Give us a contest Sailer Bacon! --- ~~((Ctesjbuvf))~~ Link always wins. Only great people like Jay Solano, God and Mario can defeat him. Mario just haven't felt like it yet. |
Offseason posting in this topic has gone way down since 2004-5. --- 90s games > 00s games |
So why post the topic before it reaches 500? We're going to be trying to keep this thing from purging for a couple weeks. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
To keep some non-reg from ruining EVERYTHING by making the next topic, of course. Ulti looking out. --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
After 8-9 years of contests, it only natural that discussion in between brackets would be low! --- There are no foreign lands. It is the traveler only who is foreign. |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #005 Yes sir! --- "Somebody call the Chinese and tell them to update their calender, because this has been The Year of The Ulti." -Sess |
Well, we are at 480 right now. We could burn through that in a couple hours if something interesting comes up. --- 90s games > 00s games |
Clearly we need more Phoenix Wright Stats & Discussion. --- Black Turtle. Whatever. |
From: red sox 777 | #008 Well, people don't even want to discuss video game related polls nowadays, so I'm not sure what's going to come up until a contest occurs! --- Support Barret Wallace (Final Fantasy VII) for Character Battle IX! http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/3834/banner1barret.jpg |
Aw man, I was all set to make the next stats topic. |
Video
game related polls are so boring nowadays that I don't really read the
discussion about them anymore. We need more soda polls, age polls, and
stuff like that. --- 90s games > 00s games |
From: red sox 777 | #012 I'm not sure why we need those! The results are pretty much the same every time. --- Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX! http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8463/banner2squirtle.jpg |
Well,
for age polls at least, I want to see that the site is aging quickly
because that bodes better for Crono. Soda polls are so
fascinating......it's interesting in itself, just like watching Link
vs. Aiai was interesting in itself. --- 90s games > 00s games |
From: red sox 777 | #014 But like Link/AiAi, it's only interesting once because you know what's going to happen each time thereafter. --- http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2369/mythbattlers.jpg http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png |
But
the result changes! I mean, moving 2% up or down may not seem like much
but it really is in this business (evidently 52% means you're
vulnerable, but 53% means you're utterly invincible and will never ever
lose again). Besides, a lot of the old interesting polls were before
geolocation and Luster tracking trends. --- 90s games > 00s games |
Dammit I should have realized he was trying to do that sooner! |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2727 I guess that looks favorable for Black and White's potential strength? --- Black turtle beat me, o noes! |
I'm not sure why we need those! The results are pretty much the same every time. Maybe for the Soda poll or a continent poll, but the age poll is interesting as it should continue to shift towards the older age groups over the next few years. Video game related polls are so boring nowadays that I don't really read the discussion about them anymore. We need more soda polls, age polls, and stuff like that. Soda polls are only interesting because of extreme trend changes. Here's a few polls that I would like to see: Age poll on a weekend - There hasn't been one of these on a weekend since 9/30/2001. The trends from this poll can be compared to the trends of an age poll on a school day, in order to determine where all of the ASV strength is concentrated on a weekend. And to determine when the SNV starts on a weekend. Though my opinion is the SNV starts at 6:00 PM on a weekend, since that was around when Link's percentage stopped increasing against Cloud (in the last Link/Cloud match). Cloud started tearing into Link's percentage after 6:00 PM. Continent poll on a school day - In order to get trends for this poll that could be applied to matches that occur on a school day, since the weekend trends aren't too helpful for school day matches. A re-run of the "When do you usually answer the Poll of the Day?" poll - Because I mostly want to create hourly trend charts for this poll and TRE only provided a trend chart that covered the PHV, FNV, and so on. And the ASV strength for "After I get off of work or school" probably has dropped off a bit since the last time we had this poll. Video game related polls are boring when they ask you for your opinion on something. Here's an example of what I mean: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4252 Those are the worst kind of video game polls. The only interesting video game polls are favorite character polls, favorite game from [insert here] series, favorite game from a certain company, or GotY polls. Besides, a lot of the old interesting polls were before geolocation and Luster tracking trends. I didn't really get serious about tracking trends until 2010, when I managed to perfect my technique for tracking trends. I have a few trend charts from 2009, but very few. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Last option of current poll is a good indicator of how many people that answer gamefaqs polls are liars. --- Black turtle beat me, o noes! |
I've only played one mainline Pokemon game in my life, and that was Blue! So it's not unheard of that 10% haven't played a Pokemon game! --- Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX! http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8463/banner2squirtle.jpg |
LeonhartFour sure likes his exclamation points --- ~Ange "Anime. Pah." - pjbasis |
I remember the good old days when people would still ramble on about strength changes and stuff all offseason THOSE WERE THE DAYS~ As for the current poll I'm kinda conflicted. Totally did this way back with Blue if you don't count Mew. Almost impossible to get the bugger without cheating though so I think I should vote the first option. And so I will. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Man
I've never owned a Pokemon game and haven't played a mainline entry in
the series since 2003 if I remember correctly (aw man, back when Ruby
was so new...). --- Currently Playing - Civilization IV Next Games Up - Baldur's Gate, Baldur's Gate II |
Black or White? Seriously I ask this because this needs to last me a long while <_< --- Nice catch BlAcK TuRtLe. But too bad your ass got SAAAAAAAAAAACKED.*tackles* |
Just wait for Gray or LL, shoe. --- "Ulti is the authority on birth control because his shirt has the power to impregnate any woman that looks at it for too long."-Tim |
I
find general gaming polls like the PS3 ban one above interesting, not
for stats reasons, but to get a general idea of how people feel about
certain issues. Certainly would prefer more of those to f***ing soda polls. --- Wylvane Guru Contest Winner Black Turtle is a wonderful user. |
I've only played one mainline Pokemon game in my life, and that was Blue! But you still played one, hence they are liars. Also, this fourpack needs to happen IMO: Epona/Magus//Tidus/Jecht --- Black turtle beat me, o noes! |
I
don't think there are liars, some people just don't play a series or
Nintendo handhelds, I think you're doing pretty well if you break 80%,
not even console Zelda broke 90% in a poll that was done a while ago. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4257 --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest. |
Geez! Can't believe 994 just now reached 500. >_> Bring on CB '11, Bacon! Crazy Dave > Link "aww yeah" --- Nominate CRAZY DAVE (PLANTS VS. ZOMBIES) for Character Battle '11! If you don't, a bungee zombie will kidnap you. That'd suck, wouldn't it? |
I
don't think there are liars, some people just don't play a series or
Nintendo handhelds, I think you're doing pretty well if you break 80%,
not even console Zelda broke 90% in a poll that was done a while ago. Console Zelda was barely under 90%, but if you include the handheld Zeldas as well, it's slightly under 93% in this poll: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3580 --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
So
how do we think the order of strength of the Nintendo "strong but not
NN-strong" characters goes next contest? Luigi, Bowser, Yoshi, Kirby,
Pikachu, Charizard, Missingno., Zelda, and Ganondorf, for reference. I
guess Captain Falcon and Fox are of decent strength nowadays too but
they kind of fail the eye test against any of the above. --- Black turtle beat me, o noes! |
Yeah, Fox and Falcon wouldn't beat any of those guys. Probably would get slammed pretty bad with SFF against most of 'em. It's hard to peg Missingno. I don't know if it'll pull an L-Block and "drop back to earth" as it were. We've seen that it's capable of putting up high numbers on Sephiroth and at the same time, not finish ahead of Yoshi by much. I don't think it'd beat Charizard head-to-head, although it might have the higher ceiling. Let's see. Let's compare numbers. Luigi - 65.7% on Meta Knight (with some SFF probably), 59.59% on Ammy, 64.84% on WCC, 28.87% on Link Bowser - 63.22% on Frog, 61.68% on Kefka, 54.7% on Sora, 45.27% on Charizard Yoshi - 76.62% on Jak, 48.49% on Missingno (neither of which tell us anything, really) Kirby - 57.53% on Rikku, 68.40% on GlaDOS, 57.63% on Vivi, 45.38% on Sonic Pikachu - 75.09% on Banjo (with some SFF maybe), 61.01% on Shepard, 44.80% on Snake (in sprite round) Charizard - 64.25% on Duke, 54.49% on Kratos, 60.64% on L-Block, 54.73% on Bowser (HG/SS release date), 46.41% on Mario Missingno - 50.29% on Crono, 51.51% on Yoshi, 47.12% on Sephiroth Zelda - 70.67% on Travis, 62.11% on Ezio, 59.72% on Jecht (on FFXIII release date, for whatever it's worth), 36.15% on Samus (with maybe some SFF) Ganondorf - 58.65% on Mewtwo, 63.83% on Ken, 42.82% on Sonic Ammy Jecht Mewtwo L-Block Who are you takin'? Duke Frog WCC Ken Masters Who you takin'? I dunno. I'll tentatively go... Charizard Missingno Luigi Bowser Zelda Ganondorf Yoshi Kirby Pikachu But I really have no idea. I feel like 'Zard is the strongest here, but the rest could go any order. --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png |
At least we won't hit 1000 in the offseason. --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
How long of an offseason are we expecting to have anyway? Bacon's never actually run a contest during the summer months. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Last
time we had a summer contest was the Series Contest and that was under
CJayC. Last Character Battle to be run in the summer was in 2005. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
As far as the characters you asked for: Charizard Ganondorf Zelda Luigi Bowser Missingno Yoshi Kirby Pikachu I think Ganondorf and Zelda should be stronger this year than they were last year, for obvious reasons. I honestly don't trust the Pokemon guys after how badly the series did in the GotD contest, though I'm still putting Charizard first based on the fact that he appears on Pokemon Red's box art (that game is looking REALLY good right now), and I'm taking Missingno/Yoshi at face value. Oh yeah, and this post shall mark the return of LMS' "Who would you pick to win in these matches?" feature! Here are seven more to predict: StarCraft vs. Halo: Combat Evolved Super Metroid vs. Half-Life 2 Final Fantasy VI vs. Fallout 3 Final Fantasy Tactics vs. Super Mario Galaxy Devil May Cry vs. LittleBigPlanet Half-Life vs. Halo 2 Grand Theft Auto III vs. Golden Sun --- Currently Playing - Civilization IV Next Games Up - Baldur's Gate, Baldur's Gate II |
I
doubt we'll be seeing a spring contest unless Bacon opens nominations
within two weeks, personally I'd rather have a fall contest instead of
a summer contest. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest. |
Missingno Charizard Pikachu Bowser Yoshi Luigi Ganondorf Zelda Kirby Ganondorf and Zelda seem to have fallen a lot last year. --- 90s games > 00s games |
Without looking at stats: Ammy > Jecht L-Block > Mewtwo WCC > Ken From what I remember from analyzing 2008 and 2010 results: Duke > Frog --- 90s games > 00s games |
StarCraft vs. Halo: Combat Evolved This one just seems obvious at this point. Super Metroid vs. Half-Life 2 Super Metroid winning would imply it's as strong as Metroid Prime. (And that Super Mario Kart is too, barring 4-way madness in two different matches.) Which would be awesome and all, but I'm not buying it. Final Fantasy VI vs. Fallout 3 I have little respect for Final Fantasy VI's supposed strength anymore. Forget Fallout 3; does it even beat Oblivion? Final Fantasy Tactics vs. Super Mario Galaxy Galaxy looked great last time, FFT showed it had slipped quite a bit in 2009, and I'm not betting on Final Fantasy against Nintendo in a potentially close match without good reason. Devil May Cry vs. LittleBigPlanet Right next to each other in the x-stats, but LBP is in the likely overrated section of the bracket while DMC got stuck behind possible slight FFX > FFIX SFF. Half-Life vs. Halo 2 ...Yeah, I have no idea here. Grand Theft Auto III vs. Golden Sun No racistFAQS issue and no release day factor. GTAIII also wins this by a little according to the xstats, though I don't like that it's in the overrated section. --- Black turtle beat me, o noes! |
EPIC POLL ALERT in 6 minutes Another age poll will be coming up shortly. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Oh good, a poll two people in this topic can care about --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
I
wonder if this age poll will get high vote totals? The last 3 age polls
have all gotten above 120000 votes, but vote totals are a lot worse
right now than they were last year. I'd be surprised if this age poll
can't break 80000 votes. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
21-25 dominating! --- ... |
Serious
domination from 21-25 this year, compared to last year. For quick
reference, 21-25 had 33.21% at the end of the board vote in last year's
age poll. Also, poll updates for last year's age poll: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdHFuUHhDdTY3UUhDV1dScTdaVXJVVlE --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Damn. I mean, I guess it's not surprising considering what time it is. 10-13 should really get a boost come ASV. |
From
what I can tell from last year's poll, 14-17 had a slightly higher
percentage at the end of the poll compared to its percentage at the end
of the first hour. So 14-17 will likely be finishing between 13.50% and
14.00% at the end of the poll. But man, 14-17 has lost so much ground
on GameFAQs that the ASV here is going to be weak in contest matches. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
21-25 is now getting 50% updates right now. Dear god, what domination by that option with the night vote. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
This
time around, 14-17 will have to use the ASV to pull off a comeback
against 26-30 instead of 18-20 in last year's poll. 14-17 had about a
2400 vote lead on 26-30 at the start of the ASV in last year's poll. At
this rate, 26-30 will have about a 2500 vote lead on 14-17 at the start
of the ASV in today's poll. What a role reversal from last year. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
