GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 994
MASS EFFECT ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- http://www.metalsucks.net/2009/10/01/tiberian-vocalizations-cormorants-arthur-von-nagel-gives-you-the-anatomy-of-a-record-contract/ |
Judging
by the speed of off-season discussion, we probably shouldn't make these
until the current topic hits 500. This may need bumps to keep it from
purging. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
Or maybe we could let this one purge for now and recreate it later. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
So Mass Effect 2 has combat similar to Resident Evil 4, no? Yeah I'm sold on this game. --- Currently Playing - Resident Evil 4 Next Games Up - Okami, Star Fox 64, Smash Bros. Melee |
Okay,
I in the other thread that I'd take ME2 to beat Fallout 3. Well, ME2
currently has about 58% on SMG2, and plugging this all into the x-stats
results in SMG2 being a few percents ahead of SMG1. To be fair however,
Fallout 3 is overrated in the stats so I'll stick by ME2 > Fallout
3. Yeah it has very very little basis, but who the hell knows. --- Currently Playing - Resident Evil 4 Next Games Up - Okami, Star Fox 64, Smash Bros. Melee |
Galaxy 2 forever --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
FFXIII not winning Goty WORST BIRTHDAY EVAAAAAAAR!!!! --- Nyoro~n |
Fallout
3 did similar to Brawl in 2010 as it did in the three-way 2008 GotY
poll. I think it was more four-ways hurting it in 2009 that made it
look so weak. --- Wylvane Guru Contest Winner Black Turtle is a wonderful user. |
That
was almost certainly an overperformance. Though most of that comes from
the fact that if you told someone last year that "next games contest
will have Fallout 3 struggling with Metroid Prime one round and
breaking 45% on Brawl the next", they'd call you crazy. For what it's worth the 2009 x-stats have Fallout 3 getting 55% on Prime and 36% on Brawl. Those same stats also have Half-Life 2 with 52% on God of War and 58% on Metroid Prime. We can partially blame last year's LFF on Prime looking so much better this year, but there seems to be some huge overall boost to the series as well, as evidenced by both Ridley's and Samus' 2010 performances. Again, at first I thought this was due to Other M being aggressively advertised (compared to previous installments in that franchise), but it seems like that isn't the case, and the only other thing Metroid related released between the two game contests was Metroid Prime Trilogy. Here are some alternatives: -Fallout 3, Metroid Prime, and Half-Life 2 all suck, and Fallout 3 was simply able to receive a large bandwagon in the end to make them all look good. -The entire GotD field is weak as heck. -Other M is RE5-esque...but I can really only see this happening to such an extent, seeing how it fared considerably worse both critically and commercially. At best, I see Other M being on Civ4's level (yes, Monster Hunter Tri > Civilization IV makes enough sense). --- Currently Playing - Resident Evil 4 Next Games Up - Okami, Star Fox 64, Smash Bros. Melee |
You
don't have to hang onto the 2009 stats so much. Lol 4-ways, as Ulti
would say. If Fallout 3 was bandwagoned against Brawl, it was a very
different bandwagon from usual given the trends of that match, with
Brawl being the game that rocked the early vote and Fallout holding up
very well in the day. Maybe it did overperform a bit, but its actual
strength should be a lot closer to the 46% it got there than the 36% it
got in 2009. --- Congratulations to Guru Champion Black Turtle, who called MM > GSC when most of us were calling it impossible. |
That's very true though. --- Currently Playing - Resident Evil 4 Next Games Up - Okami, Star Fox 64, Smash Bros. Melee |
Geolocation results for today's console poll: 360 is most popular in New England/the Rust Belt (more wired/better Internet connection), and some scattered states in the Deep South (America!). Wii tends to do better in New England, albeit it's not entirely consistent, but is pretty bad in the Southeast for whatever the reason. It actually does pretty well in the Deep South though. PS3 is strongest on the West Coast and the PC is strongest in Big Sky Country + Alaska. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest! |
From: LOLContests | #012 Now this is a really good post. I never once equated places with good internet connections to the 360/PS3 being popular. --- ¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸ "Ulti - The master of making logos look good." -Menji |
Anyone
have a poll for comparison to the DS for this? These numbers are
staggeringly low for how amazing the DS is as a system and how much it
sells. I can't help but feel like the Wii being Nintendo has dragged
the DS down too in the eyes of average GameFAQers. --- "I submitted brackets on all [224] of my accounts so they would get the 10 free Karma for beating SBAllen's score." - Luster Soldier |
LOLContests | Posted 1/16/2011 7:35:34 PM | message detail Geolocation results for today's console poll: 360 is most popular in New England/the Rust Belt (more wired/better Internet connection), and some scattered states in the Deep South (America!). Wii tends to do better in New England, albeit it's not entirely consistent, but is pretty bad in the Southeast for whatever the reason. It actually does pretty well in the Deep South though. PS3 is strongest on the West Coast and the PC is strongest in Big Sky Country + Alaska. Also, it seems like Canada doesn't care about the 360 nearly as much as the US does. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Azp2k32 | Posted 1/17/2011 1:36:30 AM | message detail Anyone have a poll for comparison to the DS for this? These numbers are staggeringly low for how amazing the DS is as a system and how much it sells. I can't help but feel like the Wii being Nintendo has dragged the DS down too in the eyes of average GameFAQers. I found these 4 polls earlier: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1507 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1716 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1803 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1820 --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
ctes living up to his reputation, I see Well I guess it could be for a spin-off contest or something, but I like the regular contests as they are and have always been. Maybe top 8 or something could after the contest be placed in a 32 characters bracket with fictional characters or something, but I wouldn't like them in the main bracket. --- Let me present a great man. The one and only of his kind. Ladies and Gentlemen, it's an honor to give you... CTES... umm... well... oh whatever. |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/17/2011 11:05:49 AM | #495 Yup. This fictional character-stuff is trashy like how tag-team and game-VS-character discussions were in the past, and I don't know why anybody thinks we're actually getting closer to this idea becoming a reality other than Ngamer running around saying he's got the inside scoop about it...like he has for awhile now. I mean, GameSpot, guys...GameSpot. I shouldn't even have to say anything else. I'm also calling The Show out on trying to use BT as a pawn to push this fictional character idea through, and -- should he pick one -- I can't wait for a misrepresenting feedback ticket to be sent to SB about how 256 united Gurus want other fictional characters in the contests. That may be jumping the gun or being quick to blame, but you better believe I'll be pissed if that goes down and I can see Ngamer or perhaps yo using that line as part of a persuasive speech sent to SB. --- First with SSBB > SMG in 2009, then with the GotD-contest: BT owned me once again. http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/17/2011 11:05:49 AM | message detail I can already tell this is going to be an annoying offseason. Not to mention we might have to wait until September/October for our next contest. A Spring Contest is definitely not happening and I'm not really a fan of Summer Contests (no ASV at all). --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 1/17/2011 3:33:57 PM | #018 If the guru winner gives a non-valid nomination, I don't see why we'd be obligated to follow it. It'd be exactly like nominating Jay Solano for a Series Contest or Duke Nukem for a Female Villains Contest. --- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different BT? [HERO'S PLUNGE] http://img.imgcake.com/wesker.gif |
Fictional
character contest definitely sounds like something that only exists in
Ngamer's head. Really doubt that is even in the cards -- and rightfully
so, no thanks to that idea! --- There are no foreign lands. It is the traveler only who is foreign. |
From: ZFS | #021 although I do want fictional characters I do want more of these kind of statements --- ~Ange no heroickrauss bullying topic i see. feels wrong, board viewing experience feels lesser |
You are a strange dude, superangelo --- There are no foreign lands. It is the traveler only who is foreign. |
I
quite like the idea of letting in characters like
Batman/Homer/Goku/Aladdin, but I think there's room for one last VG
character battle, with Link removed to a "Championship Bout". The Noble
Nine is probably at its closest point since '02, and any outcome of any
Snake/Mario/Samus/Cloud/Seph (other than Seph > Cloud, Samus >
Mario, and probably Seph > Mario) match would be argued for and
picked, so with a good bracket set up there could be an awesome final
week. Throw in some good matches between Crono/Sonic/Mega
Man/Vincent/Bowser/Tifa/Luigi/Squall/Ryu/Pikachu/Auron/Ganon/Zelda/Yoshi
tier characters, preferably avoiding too much SFF, and we could have a
cracking R3/4. Situate the contest somewhere around the release of Mass
Effect 3 and keep Shepard away from the big guns for a couple of rounds
and he could be a good wildcard. Missingno will be back as a decent
wildcard. Ezio should be a bit stronger and Lightning/Sazh should get
put in fairly debatable positions. Make the QFs/L16 onward 24 hours,
engineer a solid bracket, time it well, and there's a good chance of a
great character battle. --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
I'm
cool with a bonus poll like we got with Link/Santa. Let Link face
Batman sometime when he's relevant too. "No thanks" to a contest around
the idea though, like HM said. --- First with SSBB > SMG in 2009, then with the GotD-contest: BT owned me once again. http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
I'll ask again how many fictional characters do you guys think would make a 128 bracket? I'd say less than 10, people on a gaming site probably don't have fictional characters on their mind when nominating unless that character has recently had a big game (like Arkham Asylum) --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest. |
There
was a ton of complaining in the Gamespot contest when characters like
Vader, Joker, and Shredder were allowed in. Arkham Asylum was
recent-ish, so you could make a case for Joker being allowed, but Vader
didn't fit the criteria at all, and it shows. He was anti-voted in
every match despite his strength, and just plain collapsed against
Kerrigan. Yeah, rallying and all that, but still. I don't think
GameFAQs would take too kindly to non-video game characters allowed in
the contest. Hell, someone like Scott Pilgrim would probably be the
least anti-voted of the bunch. (not that I'm saying Scott would be
strong, but he's practically a video game character anyway) --- http://card.mygamercard.net/Mach+Tornado.png |
Yeah, Vader just plain collapsed against the contest winner that was being heavily rallied by Blizzard fans. What a jobber. Joker and Vader both made the final four, and Vader probably wins the contest without rallying. I'm not sure how you can spin that in a negative light. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
From: KamikazePotato | #028 1) Vader was also rallied. 2) Joker and Vader made the final four in a contest searching for the greatest video game villains of all time. There's your negative light. --- First with SSBB > SMG in 2009, then with the GotD-contest: BT owned me once again. http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
People who don't want to expand character battles (which got stale seven years ago) are insane. You just want it to be easy to predict so you have a better chance of winning. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´ http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/6259/1246921928837.jpg |
From: UltimaterializerX | #030 Pretty rude thing to say, Ulti. I've had a pro-gaming-celebration stance on this matter for what feels like years, and we're on a video game site -- not a site of all media. This also ignores some great Character Battles we've had since 2004 too -- both 2005 and 2006 were pretty great, for example, and 2007 wasn't worthless even if you hate four-ways (most of us do). It's not like we're wishing to only see games from 2004 and before in future game contests so we can keep predicting easy (well, easier); instead, most of us pretty actively encourage having all the games in and mixing up eras as well which is significantly more difficult. Haven't I made enough hard four-packs or brackets in the past years to show I enjoy difficulty in these things? Bad post, man. You can do better than this. --- First with SSBB > SMG in 2009, then with the GotD-contest: BT owned me once again. http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
I'll ask again how many fictional characters do you guys think would make a 128 bracket? I'd say less than 10, people on a gaming site probably don't have fictional characters on their mind when nominating unless that character has recently had a big game (like Arkham Asylum) I completely agree.. which is why we should have an entirely non- original VG character contest! Or at least separate the VG characters and non-VG characters into two halves. Besides charmander's point, the seedings would also be off. Huge characters could get 15/16 seeds just because they're not big in video games, and Batman and other top tier characters could end up as 6/7 seeds and completely ruin parts of their divisions. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest! |
That
would be one the last reasons I would want to keep contests from being
Batman vs Goku. If the character contests are that stale, just replace
them with games. Dunno why SB doesn't just make a mini-bracket every
year I stead of GOTY polls. --- There are no foreign lands. It is the traveler only who is foreign. |
Eh. I think Ulti is right, to an extent. Refusing to even try out
the FIctional Characters things when Character Battles are just plain
getting stale (and they are, it's hard to deny this) seems very
counter-productive to me. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
You
know what game we need to get into this next games contest where it's
eligible? Super Mario Bros. 2. It wouldn't be surprised at all if it's
the 6th strongest 8-bit game, after Mario 1, Mario 3, Zelda 1, Tetris,
and Final Fantasy, and I wouldn't rule it out against the latter two. --- Black turtle beat me, o noes! |
I
also am struck by how this mixed bracket came about. Back when this
kind of contest was first proposed around 2005 it was always considered
as one that would exclude the usual crew, and suddenly in the past
couple of years its turned into a normal character contest with a
couple outsiders sprinkled in. If you're gonna in for this, go all in I
say! Unless you do nothing but play video games I would imagine that
most people would recognize and care about a greater number of
characters in this kind of contest, even if the elites were not as
powerful as our current elites. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest! |
Besides
charmander's point, the seedings would also be off. Huge characters
could get 15/16 seeds just because they're not big in video games, and
Batman and other top tier characters could end up as 6/7 seeds and
completely ruin parts of their divisions. I agree, if this board wasn't rallying for some of the big names we could get something like Crono vs. Darth Vader in round 1. I just find it surprising that people are talking about characters like Aladdin and Woody/Buzz where I'm having a hard time seeing characters like Goku and Homer reaching the bracket. As for my stance on fictional characters, if SBAllen ever decides to do this I'll be voting for characters based on their video game performance, this is after all a video game site. Still we should have a tag team contest first. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest. |
If
you're into comic books and Disney characters and Star Wars and maybe
some Harry Potter I'm sure such a contest would get you excited,
because that would be about the extent of the fictional character
field. That sort of thing doesn't do anything for me! Dunno why people
want to see that on this site, but to each their own. --- There are no foreign lands. It is the traveler only who is foreign. |
its turned into a normal character contest with a couple outsiders sprinkled in. I'm just saying like it is. Some people are expecting something like a 1/4 of the bracket being fictional characters which is just crazy. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest. |
From: KamikazePotato | #034 1) GameSpot gave it a shot, and it was enough to see people weren't voting based on their video games. Therefore, I'm not interested in seeing how much/little GameFAQs varies from that trend, because it's already a huge trend. 2) If it's stale, it's only because we keep asking for more of it. It's been nine years -- much of the original excitement is supposed to be gone, yet let's not act like we haven't been on the edge of our seats a lot as recently as the last CB. We tend to call these brackets predictable and stale until a new one comes out and the majority of us fail to win a prize...but some of you then go right back to calling it stale. CB8 was great in a number of ways. --- First with SSBB > SMG in 2009, then with the GotD-contest: BT owned me once again. http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
I'll ask again how many fictional characters do you guys think would make a 128 bracket? I'd say about half, just intuitively. Although, I would pick Link to win again and feel pretty good about it, and celebrate his 7th championship with joy if it comes about. which is why we should have an entirely non- original VG character contest! Or at least separate the VG characters and non-VG characters into two halves. Besides charmander's point, the seedings would also be off. Huge characters could get 15/16 seeds just because they're not big in video games, and Batman and other top tier characters could end up as 6/7 seeds and completely ruin parts of their divisions. No, that sounds like a terrible contest that I'd have no interest in. What's the point of even having non-VG characters in if they don't get to compete against VG characters? And this is Gamefaqs- I don't care about its opinions on purely non-VG characters against other purely non-VG characters. --- Congratulations to Guru Champion Black Turtle, who called MM > GSC when most of us were calling it impossible. |
I'd
say about half, just intuitively. Although, I would pick Link to win
again and feel pretty good about it, and celebrate his 7th championship
with joy if it comes about. Nah even if SBAllen advertises and encourages fictional characters I doubt half the bracket would be fictional characters. Again nominators aren't thinking about those characters when they go on GameFAQs unless a game starring them just came out. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest. |
I
assume the contest will be titled "The Gamefaqs Fictional Character
Contest" or something along those lines, which will make it amply clear
who can be nominated. --- Congratulations to Guru Champion Black Turtle, who called MM > GSC when most of us were calling it impossible. |
Man, the vitriol in this topic --- http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2369/mythbattlers.jpg http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png |
I hope you guys are hoping for a tag team contest too since that's about as likely. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest. |
This
is going to seem seemingly random, but I "analyzed" which games had the
biggest boosts and falls between the last two games contests based on
how many games they came ahead of in the '10 stats which they were
behind in the '09 stats, and vice versa. Biggest boosts: 1) Metroid Prime (+22) 2) Shadow of the Colossus (+21) 3) The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask (+17) 4) Paper Mario (+17) 5) Mass Effect (+15) Biggest falls: 1) World of Warcraft (-20) 2) Final Fantasy XII (-18) 3) Halo 2 (-15) 4) Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (-15) 5) Final Fantasy IX (-13) How close/far away would this be from the truth? --- Currently Playing - Resident Evil 4 Next Games Up - Okami, Star Fox 64, Smash Bros. Melee |
Boosts
make sense. Metroid Prime's the most iffy, and even that can be
explained away with being hurt by Paper Mario in 2009 + contest name
boost, and maybe a couple of other factors. As for falls, FF9 surprises me since I thought it impressed much more this contest than in 2009. I guess lol x-stats and all that. Also, I don't really give a **** about fictional character contests, and it's annoying watching people talk about match-ups with characters who wouldn't get in anyway outside of a Guru nom, but I won't be pissed if one happens. I'm leaning with charmander in that many won't make the bracket anyway, just a few big guns like Darth Vader. You think people would nominate Aladdin over Amaterasu? --- Wylvane Guru Contest Winner Black Turtle is a wonderful user. |
From: UltimaterializerX | #030 I'm european so winning doesn't really give me too much. --- How would a Kirby that has eaten me look like? (Made by KG) http://i1000.photobucket.com/albums/af128/kirbys_gal11/ctesjbuvf.png |
Aladdin
over Amaterasu.....yes, I think so. I'd take the whole Noble Nine
except Sonic over Batman, but this site isn't just going to ignore the
fact that a contest is a fictional character contest. People aren't
that stupid; they wouldn't nominate Link for a villains contest either
(although Link so richly deserves to win a villains contest for his
accomplishments in our contests!) --- Congratulations to Guru Champion Black Turtle, who called MM > GSC when most of us were calling it impossible. |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
