GameFAQs Contests

Nothing I did was anywhere close to major. Metroid Prime is still above KH1 despite getting 60-40d by it last year. Most of the changes are day/match disparities and a couple overperformances/SFF, and that isn't exactly rocket science.

And I didn't adjust those last three because you can't. There's nothing to go by. I guess I could boost Halo 3 up some, which would make Halo 1>Halo 3>Halo 2 like most people think, but I can't see how I can do anything to the others without making it completely arbitrary.

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

So yeah, anyone who doesn't think Melee's loss affected this contest's final two matches is blind. Proof:

12.37%, 'World of Warcraft'
9.94% 'Final Fantasy X'
6.34% 'Super Smash Bros. Melee'
5.49% 'Half-Life 2'
4.89% 'Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2'
4.32% 'Fallout 3'
4.32% 'Super Smash Bros. Brawl'
4.20% 'The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask'
2.95% 'Super Mario Galaxy'
2.87% 'The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess'
2.85% 'Halo: Combat Evolved'
2.40% 'Portal'
2.20% 'Resident Evil 4'
2.02% 'Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots'
2.02% 'Halo 3'
1.90% 'Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare'
1.78% 'Uncharted 2: Among Thieves'
1.61% 'Diablo II'
1.32% 'Mass Effect'
1.31% 'Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic'
1.20% 'The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion'
1.00% 'Metroid Prime'
1.00% 'Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater'
0.98% 'Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas'
0.80% 'Shadow of the Colossus'
0.79% 'Final Fantasy XII'
0.74% 'BioShock'
0.68% 'Kingdom Hearts'
0.68% 'Grand Theft Auto III'
0.66% 'The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker'
0.64% 'Grand Theft Auto IV'
0.63% 'Kingdom Hearts II'
0.60% 'Batman: Arkham Asylum'
0.54% 'Final Fantasy IX'
0.47% 'Dragon Age: Origins'
0.43% 'Team Fortress 2'
0.42% 'Deus Ex'
0.41% 'Assassin's Creed II'
0.40% 'Chrono Cross'
0.38% 'Halo 2'
0.36% 'Marvel vs. Capcom 2'
0.35% 'Baldur's Gate II: Shadows of Amn'
0.34% 'God of War'
0.32% 'The Legend of Dragoon'
0.28% 'God of War II'
0.27% 'Demon's Souls'
0.26% 'LittleBigPlanet'
0.26% 'The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind'
0.25% 'Pokemon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum'
0.24% 'Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal'
0.22% 'Tales of Symphonia'
0.20% 'Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos'
0.20% 'Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII'
0.19% 'Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4'
0.18% 'Borderlands'
0.18% 'Grand Theft Auto: Vice City'
0.17% 'Gears of War 2'
0.16% 'Rock Band 2'
0.16% 'New Super Mario Bros. Wii'
0.16% 'The Sims'
0.15% 'Shenmue'
0.15% 'Mother 3'
0.15% 'Street Fighter IV'
0.14% 'Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3'
0.14% 'Silent Hill 2'
0.14% 'Perfect Dark'
0.14% 'Okami'
0.13% 'Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty'
0.13% 'Golden Sun'
0.11% 'Wii Sports'
0.11% 'Left 4 Dead 2'
0.09% 'Devil May Cry 3: Dante's Awakening'
0.09% 'Resident Evil 5'
0.09% 'Mario Kart Wii'
0.09% 'Gears of War'
0.08% 'The World Ends With You'
0.08% 'TimeSplitters 2'
0.08% 'Fable'
0.08% 'Plants vs. Zombies'
0.08% 'Conker's Bad Fur Day'
0.08% 'Skies of Arcadia'
0.07% 'Dissidia: Final Fantasy'
0.07% 'Valkyria Chronicles'
0.07% 'Civilization IV'
0.07% 'WWF No Mercy'
0.07% 'Assassin's Creed'
0.06% 'Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King'
0.06% 'Dead Space'
0.06% 'Star Wars: Battlefront II'
0.06% 'ICO'
0.06% 'Paper Mario'
0.05% 'Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door'
0.05% 'Sonic Adventure 2'
0.05% 'Psychonauts'
0.05% 'Mega Man 9'
0.05% 'Fire Emblem'
0.04% 'Disgaea: Hour of Darkness'
0.04% 'Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal'
0.04% 'Left 4 Dead'
0.04% 'Super Mario Sunshine'
0.04% 'Tales of Vesperia'
0.04% 'Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time'
0.04% 'Mario Kart DS'
0.04% 'Dead Rising'
0.03% 'Devil May Cry'
0.03% 'Banjo-Tooie'
0.03% 'Beyond Good & Evil'
0.03% 'Ninja Gaiden'
0.03% 'Guitar Hero II'
0.03% 'Jet Grind Radio'
0.03% 'Eternal Darkness: Sanity's Requiem'
0.03% 'SoulCalibur II'
0.02% 'Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 2'
0.02% 'Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trials and Tribulations'
0.02% 'Katamari Damacy'
0.02% 'Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald'
0.02% 'Braid'
0.02% 'inFamous'
0.02% 'Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney'
0.02% 'No More Heroes'
0.02% 'Star Ocean: Till the End of Time'

0.01% 'Animal Crossing'
0.01% 'Advance Wars'
0.01% 'Metroid Fusion'
0.01% 'Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance'
0.01% 'Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow'
0.01% 'F-Zero GX'
0.01% 'Viewtiful Joe'
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·
http://i188.photobucket.com/albums/z277/raptorlc/facepalm.jpg

From: UltimaterializerX | #302
So yeah, anyone who doesn't think Melee's loss affected this contest's final two matches is blind. Proof:

Yeah, I'm not sure what this proves unless you're assuming that entire extra 2% bracket-votes Melee or something.

I mean, you can argue the possibility, but it's far from definitive.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

6% of people or whatever picked Melee to win. Even half those people anti-voting Brawl cost it the final.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·
"Alpha Ulti is growing on me." - Biolizard28

Half is a lot. I think 10% of that turning into anti-votes would be generous. Keep in mind a huge chunk of that is Luster Soldier. Another large chunk are brackets there were long dead before SSBB even beat SSBM or got killed later on badly enough to forget about SSBM losing.
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BlAcK TuRtLe crushed my bracket and it didn't even take three days.
Congrats to BlAcK TuRtLe for winning the GotD Guru Contest!

I don't agree with that, Ulti. I mean, with the bracket-voting reasoning. FFX had even more brackets, so MM should have been the game getting anti-voted in the final!

I probably agree that the final 2 matches could have been different with a Melee win though.
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Congratulations to Guru Champion Black Turtle, who called MM > GSC when most of us were calling it impossible.

Almost a fifth of brackets had either WoW or a CoD game winning the entire contest? That's just awful.
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Black turtle beat me, o noes!

Keep in mind a huge chunk of that is Luster Soldier. Another large chunk are brackets there were long dead before SSBB even beat SSBM or got killed later on badly enough to forget about SSBM losing.

My brackets had either SSBB or SSBM winning the contest, so they would barely inflate the stats for those 2 games.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!

The Settlers 7: Paths to a Kingdom
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Black Turtle win to happen. 5,000 dead brackets. Want that on your damn conscience, Zelda apologists?

Minecraft > Starcraft > World of Warcraft

I haven't played any of these games, but I'm ranking them that way regardless.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/Mach+Tornado.png

This site's unfathomable hate of WoW is ridiculous.
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:>

PC gamers like them some crafting

'unfathomable hate'? it's an expansion dude
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xyzzy

From: transience | #313
PC gamers like them some crafting

'unfathomable hate'? it's an expansion dude

Yeah... and Minecraft is an Alpha.

Cataclysm had might as well be a whole new game.
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:>

Nice performance by Minecraft. Not that it'd be anywhere close to strong in an actual contest, but at least it's giving a good showing over WoW Expansion #58.
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Wylvane
Guru Contest Winner Black Turtle is a wonderful user.

Minecraft is a movement that swept the world, no surprise it's doing well here
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xyzzy

There's more game in Minecraft Alpha then there is in most 'full' games.

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I intended this post for Ulti's topic about this, but find it fits better here:

From: UltimaterializerX | #012
Enough to sway the entire course of the final two matches. These stats should be enough to quiet that chatter.

Wait, first of all, SSBM/SSBB was a toss-up SFF-match, so is it really a big surprise that the more established higher-seeded game we've seen win two big divisions before was favored? We knew SSBM was the favorite from their battle-prediction numbers anyway:

Banked: 212
Super Smash Bros. Melee: 4780
Super Smash Bros. Brawl: 3636

Between this and the percentages you posted, their levels of support aren't all that different. Secondly...

From: IngmarBirdman | #011
6.34% 'Super Smash Bros. Melee'
5.49% 'Half-Life 2'
4.89% 'Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2'
4.32% 'Fallout 3'
4.32% 'Super Smash Bros. Brawl'

How many brackets? 30K 6.34% ~1900? Wonder what percentage of these folks turned against Brawl after it beat Melee?

...roughly 1,900 doesn't mean much here if that's all we're dealing with. SSBB lost to LoZ:MM by 906 votes, so we're counting on almost 50% of a very specific group of people (people who took SSBM > SSBB) to strongly turn their backs on supporting SSBB because SSBB beat SSBM, yet not acting against SSBB before that match. We would call that absurd for any other match. Furthermore, considering SSBB's more popular than SSBM and they're in the same series, that doesn't seem likely from a perspective of logic. Revenge-voting has rarely been seen here, and I don't know if we've seen it outside of rivalries like Mario/Crono.

People also forget that FFX had a very good shot against SSBM according to BGE2. Removing KH in their four-way gets FFX within 49% according to MGS2, and Diablo 2 probably hurt FFX worse than SSBM in that match too. SSBB barely beat SSBM, so this isn't some super-big shocker that FFX barely outdid the SSB-games.


Pretty much, stop supplying flimsy excuses about how much SSBM-fans "in general" hate SSBB. Just because more people thought SSBM was more popular (again, the higher-seeded more game that's won two big divisions in the past) doesn't mean people turned their backs on SSBB when they were proven incorrect. In fact, bandwagons most commonly occur after a big upset, so under this logic SSBB was more likely to benefit than weaken. Given what LoZ:MM did in every match it was in before the championship, there's no need to guilt SSBB-fans for losing that match. FO3 did very well in the expectations-poll pre-contest and probably rode the FO:NV-wave all contest, so it impressing against SSBB isn't so big of a mystery. SSBB was still within a percent of what it got against LoZ:TP in BGE2, so not much change happened in the match closest to the controversial SSBB > SSBM.

The whole idea is flimsy.
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First with SSBB > SMG in 2009, then with the GotD-contest: BT owned me once again.
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg

Gross. Awful poll today.

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A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step.

Civlolization
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xyzzy

Minecraft has huge hype in certain areas of the internet and has become a sort of fad of its own. It doing this well isn't that surprising, especially since most people actually enjoy the game. It beating WoW isn't that surprising.

Hell, I'm more surprised in seeing it in the poll in the first place.
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Wylvane
Guru Contest Winner Black Turtle is a wonderful user.

Woo Minecraft. I might actually try it for over 30 minutes if I could figure out how to use a damn controller on my PC.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg
Watch and you'll see... Turtle own me... in the Guru!

I know exactly what Minecraft is, all my hipster friends play it.
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:>

I still need to give it a try. I do enjoy roguelikes, so I imagine I'd enjoy Minecraft as well.
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Wylvane
Guru Contest Winner Black Turtle is a wonderful user.

I wonder, at one point did the word 'hipster' lose all meaning?

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Yeah, Minecraft is the ultimate indie gaming success story. No surprise that it's doing well against Activision Blizzard. I actually thought it'd be doing better; it can still easily get doubled by the end of this, and SCII is probably not much better than fodder.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg
Watch and you'll see... Turtle own me... in the Guru!

From: KamikazePotato | #001
I wonder, at one point did the word 'hipster' lose all meaning?

when every damn thing in existence became "indie"
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"I submitted brackets on all [224] of my accounts so they would get the 10 free Karma for beating SBAllen's score." - Luster Soldier

I'm not sure it ever had a meaning in the first place. it's just a word we use to put something we don't like down.

kinda like emo but with even less merit.
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xyzzy

From: KamikazePotato | #325
I wonder, at one point did the word 'hipster' lose all meaning?

Never had meaning with me. I still have no clue what it means - only that it has a connection to maplejet, who I never see post here anyway.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... Turtle own me... in the Guru!

Should combine them and start calling people emo hipsters.

That'll show 'em.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Black Turtle win to happen. 5,000 dead brackets. Want that on your damn conscience, Zelda apologists?

there are four games averaging one vote a minute or less. not bad.
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xyzzy

From: vcharon | #018
Yeah... and Minecraft is an Alpha.

Cataclysm had might as well be a whole new game.

Cataclysm changed the world for the better... but it's still WoW, and the Warcraft name will get hate from now until the end of eternity just 'cause of WoW.

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"I submitted brackets on all [224] of my accounts so they would get the 10 free Karma for beating SBAllen's score." - Luster Soldier

I think Arma may have gotten 0 votes that update.
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For your BlAcK TuRtLe.
At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza

lol World of Warcraft being the number one pick on GameFAQs.


Also I don't see how Melee having 6% of brackets winning it affected anything. If people truly hated Brawl they probably wouldn't have voted for it against popular games such as Twilight Princess, Fallout 3 and Majora's Mask regardless.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest.

From: KamikazePotato | #325
I wonder, at one point did the word 'hipster' lose all meaning?

What the heck did it even mean in the first place?
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http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif
http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif

I'm not too impressed with Starcraft 2 here, though at least having WoW in the poll possibly LFF'ing it helps improve the performance. Still, no WoW-game/expansion has done very well in the GotY-polls, so I don't want to give Starcraft 2 too much credit here. It's not like we've had much reason to think Starcraft 2's very strong based off of these two polls from this year, anyway:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3984
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4002 (very soon after SC2 was released)

Might get ugly.
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First with SSBB > SMG in 2009, then with the GotD-contest: BT owned me once again.
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg

From: vcharon | #312
This site's unfathomable hate of WoW is ridiculous.

Everything between the original game and Cataclysm is awful.
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·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`
"Ulti's 'look at how not-seriously I take myself' sig rotation!" -SantaRPG

From: red sox 777 | #307
I don't agree with that, Ulti. I mean, with the bracket-voting reasoning. FFX had even more brackets, so MM should have been the game getting anti-voted in the final!

I probably agree that the final 2 matches could have been different with a Melee win though.

It's not only brackets. People did not want Brawl winning that contest.
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"Ulti doesn't get drunk because alcoholism is a character flaw, of which Ulti has zero." -fetusbuckteer

From: UltimaterializerX | #338
It's not only brackets. People did not want Brawl winning that contest.

That list doesn't say anything about that whatsoever though. You've only proven a possibility. That's all.

</Edgeworth>
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http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif
http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif

It's not only brackets. People did not want Brawl winning that contest.

Which is fine, but all that proves is that Brawl would have lost regardless of it defeating Melee. You can't anti-vote something you were already going to anti-vote.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest.

From: UltimaterializerX | #302
So yeah, anyone who doesn't think Melee's loss affected this contest's final two matches is blind. Proof:

6.34% 'Super Smash Bros. Melee'
4.32% 'Super Smash Bros. Brawl'

From: UltimaterializerX | #338
It's not only brackets. People did not want Brawl winning that contest.

Just saying, this has been your case. The former's insinuating revenge-based bracket-voting affected SSBB in the Final Four more than it affected SSBB against LoZ:TP in the match closest to SSBB > SSBM, neverminding that most bracket-related votes by this point in the contest are even more minimal than usual...and the latter's what you've been saying for years despite SSBB beating SSBM in SSBM's preferred time-frame and getting 49+% in the championship against a LoZ-game that just upset FFX...

...it's going to be like this forever with you, isn't it?
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First with SSBB > SMG in 2009, then with the GotD-contest: BT owned me once again.
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg

Where did you get those winner stats, Ulti? Did an admin share that with you? Whatever the case, it's great stuff! I don't think we've had a full list of championship pick statistics since Summer 2003.

So, 23 games had at least 1% bracket support for the championship, and Majora's Mask was ranked 8th, which is decent. Melee being favored over Brawl was no surprise to me. Still, I find it funny that Brawl "upset" Melee, though. =P As for revenge votes, they don't necessarily have to be those who had Melee in their brackets. Its showing against Majora's Mask seemed kinda normal to me, as Zelda:MM defeated FFX, so that basically only leaves SSBB/Fallout 3 as the only anomaly to me.

Anyway, the stats that strike me are:

0.24% 'Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal' - I expected more...this is just insanely low! Legend of Dragoon and Deux Ex had more championship picks! If it wasn't for Board 8, this would be even a bit lower.
12.37%, 'World of Warcraft' - ha, so it's the MC of games, basically.
9.94% 'Final Fantasy X' - given it's high prediction percentage to make the semis, it's about where I expected.
5.49% 'Half-Life 2' - initially I was surprised, but then I remembered that HL2 didn't lose much bracket support when going through God of War, and Metroid Prime's prediction percentage dropped a ton when taking out HL2.
4.89% 'Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2' - fanboys...

Also, Trials and Tribulations had more championship picks than the original. That's a moral victory! What's .02 times 30,000? ~60? I like those 60 people!

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?"
"Well, you congratulate BLACK TURTLE for winning the Guru Challenge."

If people didn't want Brawl to win, then it wouldn't have beat Melee.

I don't really buy the whole anti-vote thing, at least in the final. The Brawl backlash didn't hit as hard on GameFAQs in general, since it still did damn well in 2009 and did fine in this contest. Its performance against TP isn't that bad, and it went up against a bandwagoned MM in the final. Even its match against Fallout 3 could be explained away by FO3 overperforming, getting a boost from being the very first game in the bracket and thus having the first match each round, sort of leading the entire contest. Hell, it has the same percentage as Brawl in terms of winner picks. Plus the New Vegas boost and maybe even the contest title boost.
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Wylvane
Guru Contest Winner Black Turtle is a wonderful user.

Just for kicks, I decided to dick around with Fallout 3's matches with MGS4 and Brawl.

First, of course, is the Final GotY.

Brawl > FO3: 54.17%
MGS4 > FO3: 52.52%

Then, 2009 R2 with MGS4.

MGS4 > FO3: 58.22%

Then 2009 R3.

Brawl > FO3:64.42%
MGS4 > FO3: 56.76%

Then, of course, 2010.

Brawl > FO3: 54.43%

How about comparing the Halo's?

2009 R1 FO3 > Halo 3: 58.23%
2009 R2 FO3 > Halo 3: 58.21%

2010 FO3 > Halo 3 (through Halo 1): 68.99% (though taken with a grain of salt because of possible SFF in the Halo/Halo 3 match)
2010 FO3 > Halo 1: 60.6%

So if anything, FO3 might have been hurt by the four-ways and thus underrated a bit. Though using GotY as a barometer for strength is usually pretty lol-worthy as is, of course.
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Wylvane
Guru Contest Winner Black Turtle is a wonderful user.
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Wylvane
Guru Contest Winner Black Turtle is a wonderful user.

As lol-worthy as a post with two sigs can be!
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First with SSBB > SMG in 2009, then with the GotD-contest: BT owned me once again.
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg

Finally, a big one.

Let's go, Heavy Rain! DRINK THE HELL OUTTA THAT ORANGE JUICE
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... Turtle own me... in the Guru!

Remember when consoles use to have exclusives...
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest.

Heavy Rain was leading GoW3 very early on because of the bad GoW board vote.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!

From: charmander6000 | #347
Remember when consoles use to have exclusives...

2011 should be better for PS3. LittleBigPlanet 2, Killzone 3, Resistance 3, Uncharted 3, etc.
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I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.

It took 347 votes for Sports Champions to get its second vote.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest.