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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 992

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/2/2011 2:20:26 PM | message detail
The vote totals in this poll are so bad that this poll would have gotten slightly more votes in a full 24 hour poll than this poll would get during an extra 24 hours:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4060

The vote totals in that poll only look good because it ran for an extra 16 hours thanks to a poll glitch, resulting in a 40 hour poll. That poll would have finished around 66270 votes if it closed at 12:00 AM EST, but ended up running until 3:58 PM when Bacon closed it manually. I was disappointed Bacon ended up doing that, as I didn't really see a need for an 8 hour poll (which became a 9 hour poll thanks to another poll glitch).

However, I had a enough data from the last 16 hours of that poll to make a projection on the final vote totals if that poll ran for a full 48 hours. There were 1110 votes from 3:00 PM to 4:00 PM (the poll closed at 3:58 PM EST) and with 8 hours left to go, it could have gotten an extra 7000 votes or so to finish around 89000 votes (I knew it couldn't hit 90000). That poll would have gotten about 23000 more votes with an extra 24 hours, which is slightly lower than what today's poll is getting in 24 hours. That poll provided me with a rare opportunity to see how many more votes we would have gotten with an extra 24 hours, partly because GameSpot likes to run multi-day matches for their contests.

In other words, LOL at the vote totals in today's poll for getting slightly more votes than the average poll would get during an extra 24 hours.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/2/2011 3:00:12 PM | message detail
So despite the next poll being 9 hours it still had over 40k votes?
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/2/2011 3:04:50 PM | message detail
So despite the next poll being 9 hours it still had over 40k votes?

Correct. That was very impressive and had similar vote totals to some of the lowest vote totals seen in full 12 hour day matches from this contest. That poll would have been at 38307 votes if it closed at 12:00 AM, but it continued to run until 1:08 AM. That poll had a small spike in the number of votes that were coming in once 12:00 AM. I remember that poll getting around 250 votes per update right before it supposed to close at 12:00 AM, and then vote totals spiked to about 300-350 votes per update for the first several updates after 12:00 AM.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
ctesjbuvf | Posted 1/2/2011 3:05:00 PM | message detail
I just thought that it would be cool if the last 5 minuts of a match updated like the first 5. Why don't they do that. That way close matches would be much better to watch.
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"Calintares is a huge stat nerd"
Link always wins. Only Jay Solano, God and BlAcK_TuRtLe can defeat him.
charmander6000 | Posted 1/2/2011 3:10:18 PM | message detail
The site will probably explode from all the F5ing.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/2/2011 3:42:20 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
red sox 777 | Posted 1/2/2011 3:56:48 PM | message detail
Made a 128-game bracket without FFVII and OOT. 24-hour matches start in the final 16 (round 4).

North

1 A Link to the Past
16 Tales of Vesperia
8 Devil May Cry
9 Shadow Hearts
5 Final Fantasy IX
12 Marvel vs. Capcom 2
4 Shadow of the Colossus
13 Starcraft 2
3 Final Fantasy XIII
14 Mario Party 2
6 Final Fantasy IV
11 Assassin's Creed
7 Tetris
10 Paper Mario 2: TTYD
2 Metroid Prime
15 Dragon Quest VIII

Northeast


1 Final Fantasy X
16 F-Zero GX
8 Mega Man X
9 Paper Mario
5 Skies of Arcadia
12 Farmville
4 God of War 2
13 Perfect Dark
3 Portal
14 Donkey Kong Country
6 Mario Kart 64
11 Morrowind
7 Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney
10 Chrono Cross
2 Super Mario Galaxy
15 Maple Story

East

1 Resident Evil 4
16 Persona 3
8 Pokemon Diamond/Pearl
9 ICO
5 Half-Life 2
12 Golden Sun: Dark Dawn
4 Halo
13 Super Mario Bros.
3 Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal
14 Fable
6 Starcraft
11 Yoshi's Island
7 Goldeneye 007
10 Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
2 Call of Duty 4
15 Parasite Eve

Southeast

1 Metal Gear Solid
16 Zero Wing
8 Mega Man 2
9 Sonic the Hedgehog 2
5 Modern Warfare 2
12 Zelda II: The Adventure of Link
4 Super Mario World
13 Final Fantasy XII
3 Halo 3
14 The Legend of Zelda
6 Street Fighter 2
11 Sim City 3000
7 Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
10 Earthbound
2 Super Smash Bros. Brawl
15 Castlevania III

South

1 Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
16 The Sims
8 Grand Theft Auto 4
9 Disgaea
5 Knights of the Old Republic
12 Super Smash Bros.
4 Halo 2
13 Final Fantasy
3 Metal Gear Solid 3
14 Conker's Bad Fur Day
6 Symphony of the Night
11 Mario Kart Wii
7 Grand Theft Auto 3
10 Luigi's Mansion
2 Super Mario 64
15 Super Mario Sunshine

Southwest

1 Fallout 3
16 Dissidia: Final Fantasy
8 Super Mario Kart
9 Uncharted 2
5 Final Fantasy Tactics
12 Pac-Man
4 God of War
13 Link's Awakening
3 Final Fantasy VIII
14 Team Fortress 2
6 Mortal Kombat II
11 Wind Waker
7 Super Mario RPG
10 Secret of Monkey Island
2 Kingdom Hearts 2
15 Bayonetta

West

1 Chrono Trigger
16 Pikmin
8 Tales of Symphonia
9 Star Fox 64
5 Super Metroid
12 Sonic 3 & Knuckles
4 Kingdom Hearts
13 Red Dead Redemption
3 Mass Effect
14 Mega Man 3
6 Twilight Princess
11 Assassin's Creed 2
7 Persona 4
10 Age of Empires 2
2 Super Mario Bros. 3
15 Gran Turismo 3

Northwest

1 Majora's Mask
16 Medieval: Total War
8 Golden Sun
9 Diablo II
5 Fallout: New Vegas
12 Resident Evil
4 Tales of Symphonia
13 Donkey Kong Country 2
3 Final Fantasy VI
14 Pokemon RSE
6 World of Warcraft
11 Sonic the Hedgehog
7 Xenogears
10 Banjo Kazooie
2 Super Smash Bros. Melee
15 Operation Shadow

Main Bracket Winner vs. Final Fantasy VII
Winner vs. Ocarina of Time
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Congratulations to Guru Champion Black Turtle, who called MM > GSC when most of us were calling it impossible.
melikepizza | Posted 1/2/2011 4:13:45 PM | message detail
can anyone post this contests x-stats? and when will they be added to the gamefaqscontests or thengamer site?
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Congrats to Black Turtle, Winner of this years Guru competition
charmander6000 | Posted 1/2/2011 4:22:09 PM | message detail
Game of the Decade X-Stats

1. LoZ: Majora's Mask - 50.00%
2. Final Fantasy X - 49.89%
3. SSBB - 49.48%
4. SSBM - 48.41%
5. LoZ: Twilight Princess - 46.76%
6. Fallout 3 - 45.10%
7. Pokemon GSC - 44.05%
8. Metroid Prime - 43.35%
9. LoZ: Wind Waker - 43.21%
10. Resident Evil 4 - 43.09%
11. Half-Life 2 - 42.71%
12. Metal Gear Solid 3 - 42.30%
13. Shadow of the Colossus - 41.78%
14. Metal Gear Solid 2 - 41.74%
15. Metal Gear Solid 4 - 41.42%
16. Kingdom Hearts II - 40.12%
17. God of War - 38.98%
18. Portal - 38.39%
19. Kingdom Hearts - 38.18%
20. Oblivion - 37.85%
21. Tales of Symphonia - 37.84%
22. Grand Theft Auto III - 37.44%
23. Diablo II - 37.37%
24. Batman: AA - 37.16%
25. Final Fantasy IX - 36.85%
26. Okami - 36.27%
27. Resident Evil 5 - 36.20%
28. Paper Mario - 35.96%
29. Halo - 35.54%
30. Super Mario Galaxy - 35.28%
31. Bioshock - 35.09%
32. Mass Effect - 35.07%
33. Star Wars: KotOR - 34.59%
34. Golden Sun - 34.26%
35. Paper Mario: TTYD - 33.94%
36. Assassin's Creed II - 33.83%
37. Uncharted 2 - 32.92%
38. Chrono Cross - 32.90%
39. GTA: San Andreas - 31.74%
40. Mega Man 9 - 31.69%
41. God of War II - 31.15%
42. Final Fantasy XII - 30.73%
43. Devil May Cry 3 - 30.68%
44. Halo 3 - 30.62%
45. Marvel vs. Capcom 2 - 30.58%
46. Street Fighter IV - 30.26%
47. Assassin's Creed - 30.24%
48. Team Fortress 2 - 30.08%
49. Fable - 30.07%
50. Sonic Adventure 2 - 29.81%
51. Demon's Souls - 29.79%
52. CoD4: Modern Warfare - 29.67%
53. NSMBWii - 29.63%
54. GTA: Vice City - 29.57%
55. World of Warcraft - 29.38%
56. Dragon Age - 29.11%
57. Borderlands - 29.11%
58. Super Mario Sunshine - 29.07%
59. Halo 2 - 29.04%
60. Devil May Cry - 29.02%
61. LittleBigPlanet - 28.47%
62. Soul Calibur II - 28.43%
63. Pokemon RSE - 28.30%
64. Legend of Dragoon - 28.05%
charmander6000 | Posted 1/2/2011 4:22:19 PM | message detail
65. Grand Theft Auto IV - 27.86%
66. Morrowind - 27.70%
67. Warcraft III - 27.45%
68. Gears of War - 27.27%
69. Crisis Core - 27.25%
70. Fire Emblem - 27.23%
71. Left 4 Dead - 27.06%
72. Pokemon DPP - 26.82%
73. Skies of Arcadia - 26.51%
74. Perfect Dark - 26.44%
75. Tales of Vesperia - 25.89%
76. ICO - 25.79%
77. CoD: Modern Warfare 2 - 25.72%
78. Mario Kart Wii - 25.67%
79. The Sims - 25.61%
80. Banjo-Tooie - 25.31%
81. Ninja Gaiden - 25.27%
82. Persona 4 - 25.24%
83. Baldur's Gate II - 25.24%
84. Dead Rising - 25.10%
85. Dragon Quest VIII - 25.08%
86. TWEWY - 24.64%
87. Animal Crossing - 24.36%
88. Metroid Fusion - 24.11%
89. Phoenix Wright - 23.89%
90. Advance Wars - 23.54%
91. Valkyria Chronicles - 23.31%
92. Deus Ex - 23.21%
93. Star Ocean 3 - 23.11%
94. Persona 3 - 22.94%
95. Rock Band 2 - 22.85%
96. Viewtiful Joe - 22.49%
97. Dissidia - 22.32%
98. Disgaea - 22.19%
99. Prince of Persia: SoT - 22.00%
100. Dead Space - 21.93%
101. Gears of War 2 - 21.90%
102. Civilization IV - 21.86%
103. SW: Battlefront II - 21.82%
104. Left 4 Dead 2 - 21.80%
105. Ratchet & Clank: UYA - 21.76%
106. Mother 3 - 21.56%
107. Silent Hill 2 - 21.55%
108. Plants vs. Zombies - 21.34%
109. No More Heroes - 20.74%
110. Psychonauts - 20.44%
111. Katamari Damacy - 20.04%
112. TimeSplitters 2 - 19.58%
113. Tony Hawk's PS2 - 19.33%
114. Shenmue - 19.28%
115. Eternal Darkness - 19.20%
116. Conker's BFD - 19.08%
117. Fire Emblem: PoR - 18.89%
118. Phoenix Wright: AA T&T - 18.28%
119. Braid - 18.19%
120. F-Zero GX - 17.93%
121. Beyond Good & Evil - 17.79%
122. Castlevania: DoS - 17.64%
123. infamous - 17.14%
124. Wii Sports - 16.60%
125. Mario Kart DS - 16.57%
126. Jet Grind Radio - 15.38%
127. Guitar Hero II - 12.43%
128. WWF No Mercy - 10.68%
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest.
AxemPink | Posted 1/2/2011 5:44:15 PM | message detail
Red sox:

You listed Tales of Symphonia twice.

No Mass Effect 2 seems like a big omission. Galaxy 2 might have some trouble making it in with all the other Mario stuff, I guess, but I wouldn't think Mario Party 2 or Luigi's Mansion would make it in ahead of it.
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Black turtle beat me, o noes!
red sox 777 | Posted 1/2/2011 5:49:17 PM | message detail
Darn it, going to revise that bracket I suppose. 128 game brackets are really hard.
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Congratulations to Guru Champion Black Turtle, who called MM > GSC when most of us were calling it impossible.
ctesjbuvf | Posted 1/2/2011 5:59:23 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #259
27. Resident Evil 5 - 36.20%


Hehe
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"Calintares is a huge stat nerd"
Link always wins. Only Jay Solano, God and BlAcK_TuRtLe can defeat him.
HaRRicH | Posted 1/2/2011 6:03:51 PM | message detail
Games from 2009:

24. Batman: AA - 37.16%
27. Resident Evil 5 - 36.20%
36. Assassin's Creed II - 33.83%
37. Uncharted 2 - 32.92%
46. Street Fighter IV - 30.26%
51. Demon's Souls - 29.79%
53. NSMBWii - 29.63%
56. Dragon Age - 29.11%
57. Borderlands - 29.11%
77. CoD: Modern Warfare 2 - 25.72%
97. Dissidia - 22.32%
104. Left 4 Dead 2 - 21.80%
108. Plants vs. Zombies - 21.34%
123. infamous - 17.14%

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3722
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3726
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3727
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3728


Last year's GotY-winner (MW2) was third place in the GotD-poll from last year, yet it's now barely in the top ten of just 2009's games and would lose easily to GotD's Ultimate Loser (RE5). Its only win was over Dissidia, yet it still allowed Dissidia to improve from nearly being quadrupled in the overall-GotY to 43.39% one-on-one. For a series that has taken the FPS-crown from Halo in recent years, there wasn't a big gap here between CoD4 killing Halo 3 in 2007's GotY-polls to MW2 being easily outdone against another KH-game by Halo 2. In fact, CoD4 didn't look much better this contest either, allowing a SFF'd Halo 3 to outdo CoD4 in the x-stats. Speaking of x-stats, TF2 turned around a near-tripling to a win according to the numbers. While we're talking about FPSs embarrassing the CoD-series, PD managed to scare it after being borderline-ignored in BGE2. I think it's safe to say whatever feud CoD4 and SMG had is settled nowadays, too.

If the CoD-games had more debatable routes this contest, I would be fine calling this series the turd of the contest instead of MGS. Their saving grace was that they were given matches they already had absolutely no business winning as far as we're concerned. Had the CoD-games actually cost us points like the MGS-games did, we might still be giving them hell. If we had seen Dissidia switched with, say, Skies of Arcadia or Tales of Vesperia...oh man, Board 8 could have had a field day.
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First with SSBB > SMG in 2009, then with the GotD-contest: BT owned me once again.
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/2/2011 7:52:58 PM | message detail
We're barely picking up any votes per update now. Final votals will be around 25,500.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... Turtle own me... in the Guru!
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/2/2011 8:22:05 PM | message detail
Yet more evidence for the top quarter of the bracket being overrated in the stats...but man, struggling with Demon's Souls, Fable, and a 3D Sonic game is still pretty bad for Modern Warfare. And then Modern Warfare 2...below Ico in the stats, that gave me a good laugh...but I don't think it could actually happen, since I have a feeling that the bottom quarter of the bracket is also overrated in the stats, albeit ever-so slightly. Here's a list of results from last year which would go differently according to these x-stats:

Chrono Cross gets much closer to Final Fantasy IX. (we'd take CC > HL now, right? Last years stats actually have HL breaking 60% there...lol?)
Metroid Prime takes first place in round 1 without being threatened at all. In fact, Vice City ends up in easy last while Kingdom Hearts struggles with Paper Mario.
Grand Theft Auto III gets first place in round 1.
God of War gets first place in round 1.
Okami advances with ease. (I'd take Halo 2 > WoW now as well, like I said the bottom quarter of the bracket just seems too strong in the stats)
Shadow of the Colossus eliminates Kingdom Hearts 2 and gets close to taking 1st place in Round 1.
Half-Life 2 murders Final Fantasy XII.
Street Fighter IV advances without much problem.
Both Super Mario Galaxy and Team Fortress 2 defeat Call of Duty 4.
Metal Gear Solid 4 does far worse in round 1.
Mass Effect advances without much problem.

Metal Gear Solid 2 beats Kingdom Hearts in round 2 for third place, since Metroid Prime advances with Final Fantasy X.
Wind Waker advances without much problem.
Resident Evil 4 has a close match again, but with Half-Life 2 instead, and with Shadow of the Colossus not so far behind.
The thought of Street Fighter IV and Team Fortress 2 beating SFFd Mario Galaxy is too funny.
Metal Gear Solid 4 loses to Fallout 3.

Final Fantasy X destroys Melee with the help of LFF.
Resident Evil 4 has a slightly easier time with Metal Gear Solid 3 than it does with Half-Life 2.

Fallout 3 beats Resident Evil 4 and may even go as far as doing exactly what MGS4 did last year.
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Currently Playing - Star Fox 64, Smash Bros. Melee
Next Games Up - Resident Evil 4, Okami
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/2/2011 8:23:13 PM | message detail
If we had seen Dissidia switched with, say, Skies of Arcadia or Tales of Vesperia

Best theoretical result ever

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/2/2011 8:23:22 PM | message detail
Oh yeah, and I forgot one incredible piece of irony: Tony Hawk 2 > Path of Radiance according to the stats. Wow. Oh yeah, and another incredible piece of irony: both the strongest and weakest games in the bracket are from the same year and same console.
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Currently Playing - Star Fox 64, Smash Bros. Melee
Next Games Up - Resident Evil 4, Okami
charmander6000 | Posted 1/2/2011 8:32:45 PM | message detail
PoR is behind 2 Nintendo matches while Tony Hawk had FE getting KotOR during the night which got FFIX during the day.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest.
Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/2/2011 8:39:13 PM | message detail
Now that the heat has gone from Halo to CoD, does anyone expect Reach to make a few waves in the GotY polls? I mean, it's an obvious favorite to win Best 360 Game (its only competition is, what, Fable 3?), and Halo hate isn't that rampant anymore on this site. It's probably not going to make it to the final GotY three-way or anything, but I could see it surprising a few people in the overall GotY poll the same way CoD4 surprised a lot of people with its strong performance.

I also expect Black Ops to bomb horribly, but then it's kind of ****ed anyway being in the same poll as Mass Effect 2, FF13, RDR, and New Vegas.
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Wylvane
Guru Contest Winner Black Turtle is a wonderful user.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/2/2011 9:01:00 PM | message detail
Bacon getting the 'who cares' polls out of the way early on!

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
vcharon | Posted 1/2/2011 9:02:32 PM | message detail
Easy KH victory eminent.
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:>
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/2/2011 9:04:09 PM | message detail
Bacon seems to be really switching the order of the GotY polls around quite a bit. Based on the past several years, PC should have came after DS (or after iPhone since that came after DS).
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
charmander6000 | Posted 1/2/2011 9:04:12 PM | message detail
I guess he wanted to do all the handhelds first.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest.
HaRRicH | Posted 1/2/2011 9:07:40 PM | message detail
Definitely thought MGS:PW would be doing better than this from the way Big Boss fans talk.
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First with SSBB > SMG in 2009, then with the GotD-contest: BT owned me once again.
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/2/2011 10:50:00 PM | message detail
Big Boss is still awesome and will totally be the strongest MGS character next Character Battle.

From: HaRRicH | #264
If the CoD-games had more debatable routes this contest, I would be fine calling this series the turd of the contest instead of MGS. Their saving grace was that they were given matches they already had absolutely no business winning as far as we're concerned. Had the CoD-games actually cost us points like the MGS-games did, we might still be giving them hell. If we had seen Dissidia switched with, say, Skies of Arcadia or Tales of Vesperia...oh man, Board 8 could have had a field day.


I'm not really sure I agree with giving that award to the entire MGS series in hindsight. MGS3 still ends up with close to what it got on RE4 in the last Games Contest, and MGS2 does even better relative to FFX than it did from the last Games Contest (heck, it finished above KH1, which rocked it despite LFF as well). Sure, you can argue about the legitimacy of MGS3's division's stats all you like, but the MM/MGS3 result was most likely legit, so its strength was confirmed, at the very least. Heck, you can argue that MGS3 is probably UNDERRATED in those final stats since it had to face MM in a day match. It could've likely finished ahead of RE4 in the final stats if it had a night match instead.

Which basically tells us that the fluke from the 2009 Games Contest was RE4 getting close to Twilight Princess, not KH2 or MGS3 getting close to RE4.

But if you want to give turd of the contest to MGS4 itself, I have no problem with that. It would be deserved. But to the entire series? Maybe at the time, but now? I disagree.
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Support Barret Wallace (Final Fantasy VII) for Character Battle IX!
http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/3834/banner1barret.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/2/2011 10:51:43 PM | message detail
And the funny thing is that if MGS3/MM is a night match, all three MGS games could've finished in the top 10 of the final stats, and people would still be calling MGS the turd of the contest...!
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 1/2/2011 11:32:05 PM | message detail
MGS4 turd of the contest yep. Losing to a game you're supposed to break 60% on with ease, for heaven's sake! Not to mention being the weakest MGS (I'd pick 1 > 2 > 3 > 4 in order of contest strength).

But honestly that entire bottom quarter of the bracket is overrated in the stats. Are we really picking stuff like Ico > Modern Warfare 2 and Gears of War > Fire Emblem, and is WoW really supposed to be in the top half of the stats?

Better yet, let's look at the top quarter of the bracket. Are we really picking Resident Evil 5 to defeat Galaxy, BioShock, Mass Effect, and KOTOR? However the middle quarters of the bracket look 100% legit as of now...so I'll have to give up on Galaxy > FF9, whatever.
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Currently Playing - Star Fox 64, Smash Bros. Melee
Next Games Up - Resident Evil 4, Okami
AxemPink | Posted 1/2/2011 11:56:08 PM | message detail
They're called lol x-stats for a reason, you know. Are those parts of the bracket overrated? Maybe. Would they be trustworthy even if we compensated for that? No.
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Black turtle beat me, o noes!
Ngamer64 | Posted 1/3/2011 1:18:26 AM | message detail
I suppose you're right, I ought to get those x-stats and other info over to the website soon.

Has anyone done a fully "adjusted" set of stats yet? Post them along with what you changed if you'd like them to be listed as the official stats for the season!

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thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com
You should search for The Show, the cool podcast featuring Guru Champ Black Turtle!
Ngamer64 | Posted 1/3/2011 2:16:30 AM | message detail
Oh yes, and I should catch back up on these GotD polls.

BEST OF 2010: Best iPhone Game
Voted: Osmos
A gamer friend of mine got his first iPhone a few months back, and after testing the game market was telling me how its swamped with browser-level flash games that would control better with a mouse, but Osmos is one of the few titles he's seen that does something worthwhile with the touch controls.

Prediction: GTA > Osmos > Infinity Blade
Figured this was the one time where the competition was so awful that GTA's much maligned brand name would be enough to give it an easy win. Others were the only two games I'd heard of (unless Cut the Rope is a sequel to Burn the Rope, in which case I'm sure it's fantastic!)

Reaction: Ugh Osmos, UGH. Otherwise I guess I did pretty well, aside from having never heard of Fruit Ninja. What a shame that Angry Birds was released 30 days too early, as it would have destroyed this poll.


BEST OF 2010: Best PSP Game
Voted: Z.H.P. Unlosing Ranger vs. Darkdeath Evilman
Seriously? Seriously? I can't believe this game actually exists, but if it does, I'm almost hoping for another Villains Contest just so I can rally behind "Darkdeath Evilman." With a hilarious match pic he'd probably beat half the field!

Prediction: MGS > God of War > Kingdom Hearts
KH should obviously be the strongest entrant here, but the rest of the field is soooo Japanese heavy and jRPG heavy in particular that the other two stand out like sore thumbs and should benefit from doing so. Also I'm seeing the two of them win PSP GotY awards all over while KH is rarely even mentioned, so GameFAQs will probably show their good taste and...

Reaction: -I instantly regret this decision. And yuck, here's another terrible result that makes the Valkyria Chronicles win make even less sense than it did two months ago. Gross.

PLEASE skip the PS2 poll, SB!

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thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com
You should search for The Show, the cool podcast featuring Guru Champ Black Turtle!
red sox 777 | Posted 1/3/2011 8:02:59 AM | message detail
I agree that MGS doesn't deserve turd of the contest, just MGS4. SotC deserves star of the contest, but MGS2 and MGS3 actually ended up looking pretty good compared to FFX/RE4.
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Congratulations to Guru Champion Black Turtle, who called MM > GSC when most of us were calling it impossible.
Kotetsu534 | Posted 1/3/2011 8:37:34 AM | message detail
Using VCII (or, when it comes, VCIII) to explain VC's pollings is never going to be a good idea: the PSP games have been (rightly!) rejected by a large number of those who praised the original.

I'm really surprised KH:BBS is winning so easily here; Peace Walker appears to have been ignored by this site. Not good, GameFAQs!

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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
charmander6000 | Posted 1/3/2011 8:38:33 AM | message detail
GameFAQs loves its KH.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/3/2011 8:39:24 AM | message detail

From: Ngamer64 | #277
I suppose you're right, I ought to get those x-stats and other info over to the website soon.

Has anyone done a fully "adjusted" set of stats yet? Post them along with what you changed if you'd like them to be listed as the official stats for the season!


I'm working on some. They're...interesting.

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
red sox 777 | Posted 1/3/2011 9:02:28 AM | message detail
If we're going to designate an official set of adjusted stats, it'd be best I think if the adjustments were fairly conservative. (1-2% adjustments for day/night and adjustments for clear SFF only).
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Congratulations to Guru Champion Black Turtle, who called MM > GSC when most of us were calling it impossible.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/3/2011 9:05:21 AM | message detail
That's what I've been doing so far!

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
pjbasis | Posted 1/3/2011 9:10:27 AM | message detail
Why is anyone suprised BBS is the clear winner?

I think the notion that MGS series > KH series is the culprit.

But that's pretty ridiculous since Peacewalker is basically just a portable spin-off, with gameplay and presentation that differs a considerable amount from the main series.

Birth by Sleep was not only hyped for a few years, but also lauded as practically the next installment, with little to no differences in production values or game mechanics from the console games. Let alone the fan reception of BBS was pretty stellar, compared to the fairly quiet "good as usual" MGS game.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/3/2011 10:31:59 AM | message detail
Alright, here's my adjusted X-stats. Explanations in the next post.

The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 50
Final Fantasy X 49.89
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 49.48
Super Smash Bros. Melee 48.41
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 46.76
Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal 44.05
Fallout 3 43.12
The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker 43.21
Resident Evil 4 43.09
Metal Gear Solid 3 42.3
Shadow of the Colossus 42.29
Metal Gear Solid 2 42.28
Metal Gear Solid 4 42.27
Kingdom Hearts II 41.99
Metroid Prime 40.58
Half-Life 2 40.57
Kingdom Hearts 39.96
Final Fantasy IX 38.84
Portal 38.30
Diablo II 38.15
Oblivion 37.85
God of War 37.03
Paper Mario 36.81
Bioshock 36.72
Tales of Symphonia 36.69
Grand Theft Auto III 35.57
Batman: Arkham Asylum 35.53
Super Mario Galaxy 35.28
Resident Evil 5 35.09
Mass Effect 35.07
Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic 34.91
Halo: Combat Evolved 34.84
Golden Sun 34.26
Assassin's Creed II 33.83
Uncharted 2: Among Thieves 33.67
Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door 33.18
Okami 33.15
Chrono Cross 32.90
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas 31.74
Assassin's Creed 31.71
Marvel vs. Capcom 2 31.43
God of War II 31.15
Dragon Age: Origins 30.98
Street Fighter IV 30.95
World of Warcraft 30.81
Final Fantasy XII 30.73
Sonic Adventure 2 30.48
New Super Mario Bros. Wii 30.45
Halo 2 30.39
Borderlands 30.10
Halo 3 30.02
Pokemon Platinum 29.79
Call of Duty 4 29.67
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 29.57
Team Fortress 2 29.39
Fable 29.37
Legend of Dragoon 29.36
Soul Calibur II 28.43
Mega Man 9 28.31
Pokemon Emerald 28.30
Grand Theft Auto IV 28.29
Devil May Cry 3 27.91
Super Mario Sunshine 27.90
Devil May Cry 27.89
Tales of Vesperia 27.38
Final Fantasy VII: Crisis Core 27.25
Skies of Arcadia 27.22
LittleBigPlanet 27.04
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 26.92
Metroid Fusion 26.78
Morrowind 26.73
Gears of War 26.66
Warcraft III 26.49
Fire Emblem 26.79
Perfect Dark 26.44
Ninja Gaiden 26.16
Demon's Souls 26.04
Baldur's Gate II 25.91
ICO 25.79
Left 4 Dead 25.70
Silent Hill 2 25.68
Mario Kart Wii 25.67
Banjo-Tooie 25.64
Animal Crossing 25.54
Valkyria Chronicles 25.29
Persona 4 25.24
The Sims 25.08
Dragon Quest VIII 25.08
Persona 3 24.18
Dead Rising 24.09
Disgaea: Hour of Darkness 24.07
Star Wars: Battlefront II 23.56
Advance Wars 23.54
Civilization IV 23.53
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 23.37
Prince of Persia: Sands of Time 23.19
The World Ends With You 23.17
Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance 22.76
Gears of War 2 22.67
Viewitful Joe 22.49
Ratchet and Clank: Up Your Arsenal 22.45
Dissidia: Final Fantasy 22.29
Dead Space 22.00
Braid 21.92
Plants vs. Zombies 21.34
Deus Ex 21.33
Shenmue 21.15
Star Ocean 3 20.83
Left 4 Dead 2 20.71
Katamari Damacy 20.51
Rock Band 2 20.15
Mother 3 19.64
Eternal Darkness 19.60
Timesplitters 2 19.58
Psychonauts 19.54
Phoenix Wright: Trials and Tribulations 19.27
Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow 19.26
F-Zero GX 19.08
Conker's Bad Fur Day 19.08
Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 2 19.013
No More Heroes 18.95
Beyond Good and Evil 17.08
Wii Sports 16.60
Mario Kart DS 16.56
Infamous 16.38
Jet Grind Radio 15.38
WWF No Mercy 12.87
Guitar Hero II 12.43

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/3/2011 10:39:01 AM | message detail
Bunch of general day/night adjustments. These were completely arbitrary and based on what I projected it would be in a 24-hour match based on 'well I think this does better in that time frame so yeah', so feel free to contest them/add your own.

Deus Ex -1 vs. Fallout 3 (night match)
Halo +1 vs. Fallout 3 (night match)
Uncharted 2 +2 vs. Halo (day match)
Rock Band 2 -2 vs. Deux Ex (day match)
Legend of Dragoon +1 vs. Uncharted 2 (night match)
Super Mario Sunshine -1 vs. Halo 3 (night match)
Ninja Gaiden +2 vs. Halo (day match)
Okami -1 vs. Metroid Prime (night match)
Devil May Cry 3 -1 vs. Metroid Prime (night match)
Mega Man 9 -1 vs. Okami (day match)
Tales of Symphonia +1 vs. God of War (day match)
Star Ocean 3 -1 vs. Metroid Prime (night match)
Demon's Souls -1 vs. MM9 (night match)
Morrowind -1 vs. Melee (night match)
Valkyria Chronicles +2 vs. Brawl (day match)
Sands of Time +2 vs. CoD4 (day match)
Dragon Age +2 vs. TP (day match)
Beyond Good and Evil -1 vs. Galaxy (night match)
HL2 asymptote vs. Metroid Prime (day match)
GTA4 aymptote vs. Emerald (Day match)
Shenmue +2 vs. TP (day match)
Battlefront II +1 vs. Bioshock (night match)
Dissidia -2 vs. Modern Warfare 2 (night match)
Dawn of Sorrow +1 vs. KH1 (day match)
KOTOR -2 vs. FF9 (day match)
Borderlands +1 vs. FFX (night match)
Fire Emblem -1 vs. KOTOR (night match)
Ratchet and Clank +1 vs. Golden Sun (night match)
Devil May Cry -2 vs. KOTOR (night match)
Civ IV +1 vs. Persona 3 (night match)
Vesperia +1 vs. Borderlands (day match)
Dead Rising -2 vs. Persona 4 (day match)
TWEWY -1 vs. Dead Rising (night match)
Gears of War 2 +1 vs. Portal (night match)
Skies of Arcadia +1 vs. Mass Effect (day match)
Paper Mario +1 vs. MGS3 (night match)
MVC2 +1 vs. MGS3 (night match)
WoW +1 vs. Paper Mario (day match)
Assassin's Creed +1 vs. MGS4 (night match)
The Sims -1 vs. SotC (day match)
TTYD -1 vs. Oblivion (day match)
Phoenix Wright -1 vs. Mario Kart Wii (night match)


SotC very well may have lost to MGS2/4 in a 24-hour match or beaten MGS3 in a 24-hour match, so I basically set all of those games equal to each other.

I spotted Kingdom Hearts II two percent against Twilight Princess. That seems way too harsh a beating for a game that seemed just fine before then, and there's polls last year that suggest there's possible overlap. It also sets KH2 close to RE4, which last year showed was true twice.

I took two percent off of Fallout 3's score against Brawl. There's no way that wasn't an anti-Brawl bandwagon overperformance, and it made the top two divisions look completely jacked up.

I took one percent off of MP's score against Fallout 3, because it was getting crushed in the later parts of the poll, and I think it may have overperformed there somewhat as well.

I gave Platinum three percent vs. Brawl. SFF, made it look below Emerald which is crazy talk.

I gave Path of Radiance three percent vs. Platinum thanks to SFF, and because it made it look way, way weaker than the original FE and that doesn't seem right at all.

Gave FF9 two percent against FF10. Might need more, but eh. It's placement doesn't seem bad. It also makes ME1>=KOTOR, which seems about right/debatable.

I considered adjusting for SFF with Halo 3, Mario Kart DS, and Left 4 Dead 2, but who cares about those games?

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
G0EMONIMPACT | Posted 1/3/2011 10:46:52 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #287
I considered adjusting for SFF with Halo 3, Mario Kart DS, and Left 4 Dead 2, but who cares about those games?


;_;
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I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
charmander6000 | Posted 1/3/2011 10:51:49 AM | message detail
I haven't looked at all of them since I need to go, but...

Halo +1 vs. Fallout 3 (night match)

I think it should be +2, Halo 3 gained 2% on Fallout 3 after 12 hours in 2009 plus losing the power hour probably hurt Halo more since less North American voters voted.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 1/3/2011 12:58:39 PM | message detail
5 Skies of Arcadia
12 Farmville


I really support the idea to make SoA look as strong as OoT.

Actually I think just "any game but Farmville" option would get 90% on it.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Dr_Football > Me
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/3/2011 1:27:26 PM | message detail
Also forgot to point out these:

HL2 asymptote vs. Metroid Prime (day match)
GTA4 asymptote vs. Emerald (Day match)

I think the general concensus was that a 24-hour match between these would be debatable, so I just did the same thing as the MGS/SotC group and set the loser directly under the winner.

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
Dr_Football | Posted 1/3/2011 1:58:57 PM | message detail
WWF No Mercy 12.87
Guitar Hero II 12.43


Suck it Guitar Hero II
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Black Turtle crushed DFF. And the world was gloomy once again
Ngamer64 | Posted 1/3/2011 2:07:33 PM | message detail
Hmm, those KP adjustments seem pretty reasonable, though I agree that Halo 1 could use a slightly larger boost.

If anyone has problems with the changes he made be sure to voice your opinion now, before they become "official"!

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You should search for The Show, the cool podcast featuring Guru Champ Black Turtle!
red sox 777 | Posted 1/3/2011 2:10:04 PM | message detail
Looks good, KP! The only thing I disagree with is the KH2 adjustment. KH and its characters have looked really bad this year; it doesn't seem there needs to have been SFF against TP.
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Congratulations to Guru Champion Black Turtle, who called MM > GSC when most of us were calling it impossible.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/3/2011 2:32:02 PM | message detail
KH1/2 smashed all of the competition they faced up until that point. There's only so weak I can imagine the Call of Duty games being. Plus, 44.5% is already a pretty big drop from what KH2 got on TP last year.

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
HaRRicH | Posted 1/3/2011 2:39:54 PM | message detail
I'm against even needing adjusted stats for this contest. I see fifty adjustments made in KP's post, and all of our expectations to even adjust by come from GotY-polls, four-ways, a list, and a seven year old contest. I get that some matches look fishy and probably need adjustments, but this is pretty freely changing the stats off of pretty uncertain information; we used to argue all year over just one or two changes.

From: KamikazePotato | #290
I considered adjusting for SFF with Halo 3, Mario Kart DS, and Left 4 Dead 2, but who cares about those games?


Selectively leaving out games that are candidates for being SFF'd is pretty lame, too, especially since Halo 3 won a match first and you argued about how obvious it was that L4D2 was being SFF'd.
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First with SSBB > SMG in 2009, then with the GotD-contest: BT owned me once again.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 1/3/2011 2:46:04 PM | message detail
HaRRicH | Posted 1/3/2011 4:39:54 PM | message detail
I'm against even needing adjusted stats for this contest. I see fifty adjustments made in KP's post, and all of our expectations to even adjust by come from GotY-polls, four-ways, a list, and a seven year old contest. I get that some matches look fishy and probably need adjustments, but this is pretty freely changing the stats off of pretty uncertain information; we used to argue all year over just one or two changes.


Whaaa? He didn't make that many changes aside from the minor bumps to adjust for Day/Night differences. Most of which are based directly off how we saw these series perform in the last two months, not what happened 7 years ago or 5 years ago on the List.

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You should search for The Show, the cool podcast featuring Guru Champ Black Turtle!