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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 990

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Lucid Faia | Posted 12/22/2010 10:17:00 PM | message detail
XD at the past two updates.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
Our honor defend, we will fight to the end
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/22/2010 10:17:21 PM | message detail
Based on the last 10 minutes Brawl will take the lead in 40.66 hours.
And MM stayed above 62% in Europe those 10 minutes.
charmander6000 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:17:54 PM | message detail
Brawl's going on a ****ing rampage right now.

Sadly it isn't enough, Brawl is going to have to almost double its effort.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 268/384 Today's Winner: Super Smash Bros. Brawl
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/22/2010 10:17:58 PM | message detail
CT would outperform Smash in Europe despite never being released there.

It's really only the UK that hates CT, just like how Mega Man is weak in the UK but not in the rest of Europe.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
MasterOfOrionII | Posted 12/22/2010 10:18:02 PM | message detail
I never said it would normally be worth 52% on MM. Hard to say what it would be worth normally, but probably 51%, who knows really. But in a neutral setting without previous rounds existing FFX would've won, I think most of us can agree on that.

And as you said, we'll have to totally disagree on this LttP getting 55% on FFX stuff. Because there's no way that's true. You're either overrating LttP, underrating FFX or both.

LttP is a contender for #3, FFX is not. But there is no logic behind LttP winning by that huge much. It would probably be more like OoT vs. FF7.

As for Brawl vs. FFX, if Brawl win here than its conclusive, Brawl>FFX. If MM wins though then I don't think any of us should be making confident statements on Brawl vs. FFX. That matchup would simply remain a mystery outcome, with nothing except bias leading one to pick one or the other.
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Nothing can save us
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/22/2010 10:18:30 PM | message detail
Is Brawl even winning a region?

*checks*

Oh, Asia and the Philippines.

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DFF
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/22/2010 10:18:36 PM | message detail
If Brawl couldn't budge much with the ASV against something that has "just" a good ASV like Fallout 3, I doubt that it's going to do much against a Zelda game in that timeframe.
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Currently Playing - Zelda: Majora's Mask, Smash Bros. Melee
Next Games Up - Resident Evil 4, Okami, StarCraft
red sox 777 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:20:25 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'll probably use bias to convince myself to pick FFX > Brawl if it ever comes up again. But the same bias will tell me to pick Melee > FFX. Objectively if this ends up razor close like the last one, I think Brawl deserves to be favored (but not conclusively).
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
-Tofa7- | Posted 12/22/2010 10:20:37 PM | message detail
+45 votes. Nice work MM!
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Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore
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Lucid Faia | Posted 12/22/2010 10:20:41 PM | message detail
Owned.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
Our honor defend, we will fight to the end
XIII_rocks | Posted 12/22/2010 10:20:48 PM | message detail
XD

Brawl:

tiptoe
tiptoe
tiptoe
tiptoe

MM:

NO *slashes*
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http://thechive.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/6.gif
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/22/2010 10:20:51 PM | message detail
Lol wut.
ffdgh1 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:21:37 PM | message detail
mm is gaining again lolz
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 12/22/2010 10:21:54 PM | message detail
http://www.maniacworld.com/Tsar-Nuclear-Explosion.jpg

Link laughs at your feeble attempts to oust him, weaklings.
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Placeholder anti-capslock sig.
Evillordexdeath | Posted 12/22/2010 10:23:05 PM | message detail
Link vs. all.

Link wins.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/22/2010 10:27:46 PM | message detail
Big cut there for Brawl.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
Janus5000 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:31:31 PM | message detail
*comes back*

*votes*

All is well.

(okay apparently I walked in on a Brawl cut but still)
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Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~
Evillordexdeath | Posted 12/22/2010 10:31:49 PM | message detail
Followed by a gain for MM.

Quite an impressive showing for Majora so far.
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Hi,hi,hi, you come buying? You can sell, too. I, Mr. Saturn, can do all for you.
-Tofa7- | Posted 12/22/2010 10:34:39 PM | message detail
I know this match still has a long way to go, but I thought I'd bring this up.

From less than 24 hours ago, in Topic 986, when I suggested Majora's Mask would be slightly stronger than TP and would therefore have a half decent chance at keeping up with Brawl:

From: EvilNcr | Posted 12/22/2010 11:27:01 PM | #477
Talk about delusional. That poll proves MM has no chance because TP was just as impressive as it was.


From: vcharon | Posted 12/22/2010 11:31:49 PM | #483
You're delusional if you think MM is that much stronger than TP.


From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/22/2010 11:33:27 PM | #486
Man don't show me that poll.Even if MM is by 2% stronger than TP it still loses from Brawl!


http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/3741/laughingelfmangw1.jpg

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Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore
"Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..."
red sox 777 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:40:11 PM | message detail
This projection is probably going to way undershoot Brawl, but it's the best I can think of.

OOT/SSBB: Majora's Mask with 53.32%

Okay, we can forget about using that projection until morning at least. It's probably going to undershoot Brawl all day, but by morning/noon it should become close enough to be somewhat useful.

Snake/Cloud: SSBB with 51.20%

Well.......SSBB isn't FFVII, not even close.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
XIII_rocks | Posted 12/22/2010 10:41:37 PM | message detail
Yeah, this is boring. They're evenly matched now but MM got the decisive early vote.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/22/2010 10:42:29 PM | message detail
If Brawl can keep this from getting too out of hand overnight, which it should, I'd give it the distinct day advantage. We saw what it did to TP in a day match, and I'd wager TP Is way more day-centric than Majora.
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http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 12/22/2010 10:43:45 PM | message detail
This seems appropriate right about now:

http://i.imgur.com/BKBi7.png

Doin' the impossible, all contest long.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/22/2010 10:44:04 PM | message detail
Interesting to note is Brawl is almost at 49% in the USA, yet still below 46% in Canada. Superior Canadian taste strikes again? Majora has been doing great in Canada in all of it's matches compared to the states. That's interesting to me.
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http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:45:49 PM | message detail
Canada doesn't really care about the Smash series as much as the US. It's actually true for all crazy day vote series (Halo, KH, Smash)
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 268/384 Today's Winner: Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Lucid Faia | Posted 12/22/2010 10:45:57 PM | message detail
Things have been rather uneventful for the past hour.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
Our honor defend, we will fight to the end
XIII_rocks | Posted 12/22/2010 10:46:42 PM | message detail
Indeed. Boring. I'm going to bed now, I've more or less been online since 8pm (gmt) following these.
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http://craig.uct2.net/Images/Animals/I%20was%20there.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:47:17 PM | message detail
Things have been rather uneventful for the past hour.

Brawl will probably stall/make some small cuts throughout the night. The morning will give us the winner.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 268/384 Today's Winner: Super Smash Bros. Brawl
MasterOfOrionII | Posted 12/22/2010 10:47:38 PM | message detail
Super Smash Bros. Stawl
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Nothing can save us
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/22/2010 10:50:08 PM | message detail
Brawl will probably stall/make some small cuts throughout the night.

Maybe up until about 3:00 AM, then Europe takes over and Majora's Mask gains for several hours until the morning vote kicks in. Majora's Mask has over 61% in Europe and at this point in the match, they aren't going to be able to flip over to Brawl. At worst, Majora's Mask probably drops no lower than 55% in Europe.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
red sox 777 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:51:46 PM | message detail
MM gained 488 the first hour and 26 so far this hour. Don't like this stalling......hopefully MM will still be able to use the dead zone to pad the lead before the day hits. That KH/KH2 day vote was not encouraging.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/22/2010 10:54:44 PM | message detail
Once the dead zone really hits we should see MM slaughter Brawl. Europe gets five times as many votes as Asia and is pulling in well over 60% (it hasn't been under 60 in almost an hour now). Asia is only pulling in 65% for Brawl. This will get very ugly for Brawl before it can start its comeback, if it ever does.
Lucid Faia | Posted 12/22/2010 10:56:22 PM | message detail

From: TheOneAboveAll | #132
Once the dead zone really hits we should see MM slaughter Brawl. Europe gets five times as many votes as Asia and is pulling in well over 60% (it hasn't been under 60 in almost an hour now). Asia is only pulling in 65% for Brawl. This will get very ugly for Brawl before it can start its comeback, if it ever does.


Excellent.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
Our honor defend, we will fight to the end
AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:57:55 PM | message detail
It's ridiculous how huge a lead Majora jumped out to. And the addition to the lead is shrinking.

I can't think of many matches where you could say "If not for the first five minutes this would look close"
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##Alec
Philly is the greatest city in the world. Go Flyers! Also WC is better than me.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/22/2010 10:58:31 PM | message detail
Bacon just inputted some polls into the database. Here are the next several days worth of polls:

12/24/2010 - I have no idea. Probably a poll related to the Game of the Decade contest.
12/25/2010 - What did you get for Christmas (or another December holiday)?
12/26/2010 - Got DS?
12/27/2010 - Got PSP?
12/28/2010 - Got PlayStation 3?
12/29/2010 - Got Wii?
12/30/2010 - Got Xbox 360?
12/31/2010 - Got iPhone/iPod Touch/iPad?

The Christmas day poll is going to be poll 4197 and today's poll is poll 4195, so I guess Bacon only plans to run one poll tomorrow. I'm probably not expecting a bonus match tomorrow, unless Bacon changes his schedule in order to run two 12 hour polls tomorrow.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/22/2010 11:01:08 PM | message detail
And MM shoots back over 52% and 600 votes. This will get ugly quickly.
O-H
Janus5000 | Posted 12/22/2010 11:01:44 PM | message detail
MM's brief trip under 52% is over.

What's wrong, Brawl? Did you trip?
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http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg
Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~
charmander6000 | Posted 12/22/2010 11:02:00 PM | message detail
Looks like the Brawl second hour power hour is over.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 268/384 Today's Winner: Super Smash Bros. Brawl
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/22/2010 11:04:09 PM | message detail
Playing Brawl online is making me even more thankful that it's getting worked. 1/4+ second of input lag for a fighter - are you kidding me?
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
FFDragon | Posted 12/22/2010 11:04:57 PM | message detail

From: Janus5000 | Posted: 12/23/2010 2:01:44 AM | #137
What's wrong, Brawl? Did you trip?


http://www.gifbin.com/bin/227839420.gif

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red sox 777 | Posted 12/22/2010 11:06:53 PM | message detail
MM by the hour:

1:00 | 52.66%
2:00 | 51.06%
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/22/2010 11:07:49 PM | message detail
Man, topic is so ace tonight.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/22/2010 11:11:09 PM | message detail
This match is now currently 337 votes behind FFX/MM at this point in time. If this keeps up, this match will not even break 100000 votes. The last time a final match of any contest failed to break 100000 votes was FFVII/CT in 2004.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
swordz9 | Posted 12/22/2010 11:11:18 PM | message detail
Needs more Zelda Drones comments.
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HaRRicH | Posted 12/22/2010 11:12:16 PM | message detail
I...guess I'm alone in rooting for SSBB. Huh. Whatever!
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*obnoxiously encourages you to nominate Epona*
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
red sox 777 | Posted 12/22/2010 11:12:49 PM | message detail
We're behind yesterday already after that fast start? Dayum, nothing brings in the votes like Final Fantasy vs. Zelda.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
swordz9 | Posted 12/22/2010 11:13:03 PM | message detail
I'm rooting for Brawl too, but it's purely out of spite towards ZeldaFaqs. I don't actually like Brawl much.
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http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/22/2010 11:14:09 PM | message detail
We're behind yesterday already after that fast start?

Yeah. After one hour, this match was just 96 votes ahead of FFX/MM and it's now behind by 337 already.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/22/2010 11:16:39 PM | message detail
Majora going nuts now. Good. Drill that piece of s*** game into the ground.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/22/2010 11:17:45 PM | message detail
I think MM can hold a lead of 1000, but I'm not going to be completely comfortable until it hits a lead of 1500.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.