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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 990

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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/22/2010 9:45:48 PM | message detail
Still no cuts. MM could have a 550 vote lead before we get out of the Power Hour.
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Mr3790 | Posted 12/22/2010 9:47:38 PM | message detail
Zelda Absolute Annihilation Hour FTW?
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ffdgh1 | Posted 12/22/2010 9:47:41 PM | message detail
ooo cut
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/22/2010 9:47:51 PM | message detail
Oh, and MM lost 1.25% in Europe those last 10 minutes. If Brawl can cut a similar margin for the next 2 hours (which it can't) then it may give itself enough of a lead by morning (it won't).
MasterOfOrionII | Posted 12/22/2010 9:47:57 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #160
Your perception of FFX's strength is almost certainly underrating it significantly.

And it would for sure keep it close against LttP. It wouldn't win but it wouldn't get less than 47%. LttP isn't quite what it used to be remember.


The game got 34.5% against OOT with Brawl in there and 37% with RBY and Melee. Don't see any reason to believe it could avoid the doubling 1v1, and now it's lost to Majora too to confirm that.

No way is LTTP only worth 53% on MM. Would expect 55%-58% from LTTP against FFX nowadays.


Man dude, you're just off here IMO.

You had this crusade because you think the raw stats overrated FFX, but the fact is that nobody really overrated the game in practice. The game is pretty much exactly what most of us thought it was. Who exactly was overrating it?

The vast majority of us had it as the #3 game in the bracket. And it's pretty much on the same level as Melee/Brawl most likely, right around where we thought. The end of contest results with Majora will just be wonky.

MM is just bandwagoned - without that it clearly doesn't beat FFX, considering it barely scraped by even with it. It's a Ganon/Bowser Villains contest situation, except here MM was strong enough to change results with the bandwagon.

As for LttP getting 55%, I think you overrate LttP. Moreso than you're believing people overrated FFX. LttP has weakened over the years, and is still weakening. Its the 2nd strongest Zelda but would crush not FFX, at all. That's simply not happening.
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MasterOfOrionII | Posted 12/22/2010 9:49:19 PM | message detail
The game got 34.5% against OOT with Brawl in there and 37% with RBY and Melee. Don't see any reason to believe it could avoid the doubling 1v1, and now it's lost to Majora too to confirm that.

Oh, and regarding this - "LOL 4 ways". This really isn't that noteworthy. If we've learned anything it's that these numbers aren't worth the effort to type.
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Merc25 | Posted 12/22/2010 9:49:26 PM | message detail
bonus match prediction the poll will be the consist of every Zelda game ever made
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IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/22/2010 9:49:41 PM | message detail
Zelda became the trendy underdog board favorite that saves a contest from a stale result and thus deserves to win.

This contest... full of win.

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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/22/2010 9:50:48 PM | message detail
Still no cut. Lead over 500.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 12/22/2010 9:50:55 PM | message detail
500 votes reached. This is truly the best contest of all time.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/22/2010 9:51:24 PM | message detail
Zelda is so determined not to give Smash a CRUMB of this delicious Power Hour. Love it.
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/22/2010 9:51:50 PM | message detail
I come back home from a party, Majora held on and is beating Brawl.

Awesome night.
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MasterOfOrionII | Posted 12/22/2010 9:53:20 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #210
Trends-wise, TP/Brawl is completely worthless since it was a day match. The best analog I can think of is OOT/Brawl, but the thing is MM has a bandwagoned/rallied/close match runoff early vote here, so it's really very different at this point.


Snake/Cloud maybe?

Except MM has a better day vote than Snake.
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Suigyuko | Posted 12/22/2010 9:54:17 PM | message detail
So, top 10 time for games. Early yes, but I think MM has this. (Then again, I thought Melee had it too, and we saw how that worked).







1 OoT
2 FF VII
3 RBY
4 ALttP
5 CT
6 SM 64
7 MM
8 SMW
9 Brawl
10 TP
11 Melee
12 WW
13 X
14 RE 4
15 SMB 3
16 KH II
17 KH
19 MGS
20 Galaxy


That seems far enough. I don't think I am missing any major games there that have much of a beef to get in.


This is all just quick thinking right now, not alot of actual analysis went into it yet, but I will explain my reasoning on a few of them.



ALttP had to jump CT with the Nintendo boost, and no way SM 64 takes it out.
I would take CT over SM 64 without even thinking about it in 1 on 1.
As strong as MM looks, I just can't see it beating the icon that is SM 64, so I believe the second tier (the first obviously being OoT, FF VII, RBY) ends with SM 64 at 6. I think there is a noticeable drop from there.
World seems like it would be a step behind 64 after last contest, and MM is just too damn beastly right now for me to not put it over World.
Brawl beat TP and Melee, TP probably more by SFF, I would take it over Melee right now. WW was barely taken by MM, and that is with SFF, I believe that is more impressive than X, which is still mega impressive.
X (So #13 ends our third tier)
RE 4 seems to be a lock (with MGS death) as our strongest non Nintendo/Square game here and after SMB 3 disappointment last contest, I take it over 3 without much trepidation.
KH II was stronger than KH, they are both stronger than the MGS series, of which MGS itself is probably the strongest.. (KH ends our 4th tier)
Galaxy is legit after all this, and LOL 4ways.
red sox 777 | Posted 12/22/2010 9:54:52 PM | message detail
We'll just have to agree to disagree then until we get a nongenerational games contest. MM didn't show any signs of being bandwagoned against FFX- it did better in the 2nd hour than the 1st in fact. Right now we're watching a match were MM is being bandwagoned, and it's falling off sharply from the start and will probably continue to fall sharply. It's probably not going to finish above 51%. The only evidence for bandwagoning in that match is that people expected FFX to be stronger, and I don't find the evidence for that convincing at all. It's 1 good match against RE4 plus a season of mediocrity up to that point, while MM has consistently had showings putting it in the same area as FFX.
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Haste_2 | Posted 12/22/2010 9:57:11 PM | message detail
I would bump up MGS. I mean, it's without question above Resident Evil 4 in the stats this year, and even last year, show RE4 about equal with MGS3. GSC should still be in the Top 20, too.

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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 12/22/2010 9:57:36 PM | message detail

From: Suigyuko | #064
ALttP had to jump CT with the Nintendo boost, and no way SM 64 takes it out.
I would take CT over SM 64 without even thinking about it in 1 on 1.


Uhh...did you forget their 'fair' match? Sm64 DEMOLISHED CT. It's probably superior to LttP by now.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/22/2010 9:58:47 PM | message detail
Mario 64 beat Chrono Trigger when GoldenEye was in the poll. Enough said.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/22/2010 9:59:00 PM | message detail
I agree MM probably wasn't bandwagoned against FFX, all of MM's performance this contest sort of pointed at the upset being there. It may have been rallied a bit to get the close win, but in the end I would say the two games are even.

As for Brawl I would say that this match is probably a best case scenario for MM, just getting the close win over FFX should get people excited, if this ends up even I would probably take Brawl in a rematch.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/22/2010 10:00:33 PM | message detail
Dammit, Brawl gets its PH cut.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 12/22/2010 10:00:58 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #069
I agree MM probably wasn't bandwagoned against FFX, all of MM's performance this contest sort of pointed at the upset being there. It may have been rallied a bit to get the close win, but in the end I would say the two games are even.

As for Brawl I would say that this match is probably a best case scenario for MM, just getting the close win over FFX should get people excited, if this ends up even I would probably take Brawl in a rematch.


Most likely, but as it is MM deserves to be ranked above it if it wins. It's not just the Star of the Contest, but it was the Star of the Round every round unless you want to give SotC respect for beating MGS4 badly.
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ffdgh1 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:01:07 PM | message detail
brawl is picking up momentum :D
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:01:33 PM | message detail
I'd probably put MM and FFX right next to each other, since they were only separated by 200 votes. Hmm....

1 OOT
2 FFVII
3 LTTP
4 RBY
5 SM64
6 CT
7 SMW
8 SMB3
9 SSBM (*holds up shield*)
10 SSBB
11 MM
12 FFX
13 TP
14 GE007
15 MGS
16 SMB
17 GSC
18 SMRPG
19 WW
20 RE4
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
charmander6000 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:01:40 PM | message detail
Brawl sneaks a cut at the end of the power hour
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GotD Bracket: 268/384 Today's Winner: Super Smash Bros. Brawl
-Tofa7- | Posted 12/22/2010 10:01:44 PM | message detail
First cut.
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MasterOfOrionII | Posted 12/22/2010 10:01:45 PM | message detail
I'm confused though. What "season of mediocrity"? The result against Borderlands was expected, as was the result against FF9. The only bad performance was VJ, which the sensible amongst us wrote off as not meaning much. It had no other matches.

As for MM doing better the 2nd hour, that doesn't mean it wasn't bandwagoned. Trends-wise Brawl didn't show signs of an anti-wagon against FO3 either - quite the opposite. But I don't think too much of us trust that result.

MM is in the same "area" as FFX, but neutrally without momentum it isn't as strong. With all the momentum in the world it won by the slimmest of margins. Note the high vote totals for that match as well. FFX is a draw as is Zelda vs. Final Fantasy, but the vote totals are still very high.

Still, where are these people who were overrating FFX? Because I don't think you'll find very many in this topic. Your crusade was against something nobody was ever buying into.
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whatisurnameplz | Posted 12/22/2010 10:03:11 PM | message detail
The first cut.
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TheOceIot | Posted 12/22/2010 10:03:47 PM | message detail
And to think I initally had MM winning in my bracket. I'd rather FFX have won, but anything is better than Brawl winning.
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MasterOfOrionII | Posted 12/22/2010 10:04:15 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #309
As for Brawl I would say that this match is probably a best case scenario for MM, just getting the close win over FFX should get people excited, if this ends up even I would probably take Brawl in a rematch.


I agree, MM will be overranked by people due to this contest. It's benefiting from circumstance here.

In a more normal setting, it probably gets SFFed by Brawl. Put this match in the 1st round and Brawl probably wins without struggle.
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RPGLord95 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:04:55 PM | message detail
Brawl cut woooo ... Remember Brawl didn't start coming back big on Melee until 4-5 hours in. Of course it also wasn't down by so much
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Lucid Faia | Posted 12/22/2010 10:05:31 PM | message detail
MM with a small gain

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MasterOfOrionII | Posted 12/22/2010 10:06:41 PM | message detail

From: RPGLord95 | #360
Brawl cut woooo ... Remember Brawl didn't start coming back big on Melee until 4-5 hours in. Of course it also wasn't down by so much


Indeed this match isn't over. Brawl though had the benefit of not being quite as horrible in Europe as its opponent against Melee, so it gained momentum overnight. That won't be the case here, it's going to struggle overnight. It'll probably do better in the 1-2 hour than it does overnight.
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ffdgh1 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:06:59 PM | message detail
keep it going brawl =D
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/22/2010 10:08:04 PM | message detail

From: RPGLord95 | #080
Brawl cut woooo ... Remember Brawl didn't start coming back big on Melee until 4-5 hours in. Of course it also wasn't down by so much


Also keep in mind that in its day match, Brawl gained from the beginning of the match right through to the end. The Power Hour is definitely Majora's best time, should be interesting to see what Brawl can do once the kiddies wake up. I've already got the guru, it would be nice to get a prize of some sort too!
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/22/2010 10:08:17 PM | message detail
Do people outside of this board actually hate Brawl?

I can't see Brawl being incredibly hated except for a vocal minority, and I don't think even the Smash community would be as passionately anti-Brawl as this board has been. I think this is part MM bandwagon, part Brawl falling off a bit strength-wise from 2009, when it was still semi-coasting on 2008 hype before it was slowly forgotten in favor of other games.
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Guru Contest Winner Black Turtle is a wonderful user.
-Tofa7- | Posted 12/22/2010 10:08:43 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | Posted: 12/23/2010 5:01:33 PM | #073
I'd probably put MM and FFX right next to each other, since they were only separated by 200 votes. Hmm....

1 OOT
2 FFVII
3 LTTP
4 RBY
5 SM64
6 CT
7 SMW
8 SMB3
9 SSBM (*holds up shield*)
10 SSBB
11 MM
12 FFX
13 TP
14 GE007
15 MGS
16 SMB
17 GSC
18 SMRPG
19 WW
20 RE4


Melee should not be above Brawl on any list, unless you think it's a weird rSFF situation and Melee is stronger indirectly, and we have no reliable stats to base that on.

Brawl beat Melee fairly 1v1, and it would have beaten it a lot worse in a full 24 hour match, with the way the trends were going. If Majora can pull off a win here, I'd be knocking Brawl and Melee further down the list too.


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ffdgh1 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:10:59 PM | message detail
i rense stalling
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:11:25 PM | message detail
I'm confused though. What "season of mediocrity"? The result against Borderlands was expected, as was the result against FF9. The only bad performance was VJ, which the sensible amongst us wrote off as not meaning much. It had no other matches.

As for MM doing better the 2nd hour, that doesn't mean it wasn't bandwagoned. Trends-wise Brawl didn't show signs of an anti-wagon against FO3 either - quite the opposite. But I don't think too much of us trust that result.

MM is in the same "area" as FFX, but neutrally without momentum it isn't as strong. With all the momentum in the world it won by the slimmest of margins. Note the high vote totals for that match as well. FFX is a draw as is Zelda vs. Final Fantasy, but the vote totals are still very high.

Still, where are these people who were overrating FFX? Because I don't think you'll find very many in this topic. Your crusade was against something nobody was ever buying into.


My crusade was about the strength of FFX relative to games from the N64/PS1 generation and older. Primarily, that meant: OOT, RBY, LTTP, SM64, CT, and MGS. I think I had a pretty middle of the road opinion of FFX's strength relative to the Smash games. I guess the biggest plank of the crusade was always the LTTP/FFX matchup, which I thought LTTP would get 55%+ in, but most people here did not.

VJ was bad but inconclusive, I thought the Borderlands result was rather poor (Melee's result against Morrowind was also- remember Melee and Brawl were considered major contenders for overall site #3 by many many people in this topic), and I thought the Golden Sun result was a bit on the low side. I mean, none of it is very conclusive but neither is FFX/RE4. I don't know how you can look at FFX's and MM's runs and conclude that FFX must be worth 52% on MM or something. They looked close, the match turned out really close, and the most natural thing to believe is that they actually were close.

By bad I guess what I mean is bad for a game that is a step below games (Melee/Brawl) that are supposed to be contending for #3. A lot of people did see them as major #3 contenders..
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 12/22/2010 10:11:54 PM | message detail
dat gigantic cut
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:12:11 PM | message detail
Brawl will probably gain during the night just because MM demolished it during the power hour.
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GotD Bracket: 268/384 Today's Winner: Super Smash Bros. Brawl
RPGLord95 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:13:18 PM | message detail

From: -Tofa7- | #086
Melee should not be above Brawl on any list, unless you think it's a weird rSFF situation and Melee is stronger indirectly, and we have no reliable stats to base that on.


Brawl > Melee > Games > Brawl. Yoblazer has it right.

Melee would absorb Brawl's votes, but Brawl does not absorb Melee's votes
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:14:14 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure Majora is getting bandwagoned here and Brawl is actually a point or two or three above FFX. This is going to end up close. Majora's got the next 11 or so hours to build its lead; past noon Brawl should gain the upper hand. Dunno how much it needs.....1000 would probably be enough at noon.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/22/2010 10:14:41 PM | message detail
What? Europe is up to 62?? That has to drop fast or else this will get very ugly.
-Tofa7- | Posted 12/22/2010 10:15:49 PM | message detail
Consistent 1 vote cuts.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 12/22/2010 10:16:02 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #092
I'm pretty sure Majora is getting bandwagoned here and Brawl is actually a point or two or three above FFX. This is going to end up close. Majora's got the next 11 or so hours to build its lead; past noon Brawl should gain the upper hand. Dunno how much it needs.....1000 would probably be enough at noon.


I'd prefer 1.5k. MM CAN hold that, unlike FFX.
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ffdgh1 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:16:13 PM | message detail
brawl is rising bit by bit
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The Mana Sword | Posted 12/22/2010 10:16:17 PM | message detail
Brawl is screwed.

There's only like 275 updates left.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Black Turtle win to happen. 5,000 dead brackets. Want that on your damn conscience, Zelda apologists?
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/22/2010 10:16:19 PM | message detail
Based on the last 10 minutes Brawl will take the lead in 40 hours.
red sox 777 | Posted 12/22/2010 10:16:24 PM | message detail
CT would outperform Smash in Europe despite never being released there. That's how abysmal Smash is there! When Magus does better against you with the dead zone than the power hour you know you have a truly horrible Europe vote.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/22/2010 10:16:32 PM | message detail
Brawl's going on a ****ing rampage right now.
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