GameFAQs Contests

Nope, I didn't. Thanks.
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*sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16

How do people miss things that are in the first post of every topic?

And ugh, that big FFX gain broke my spirit. I'm calling this and going to sleep. Hopefully MM can make it close come the end of the match. I shouldn't be too disappointed. With a Brawl > FFX final I'll finish in the top 4 on the leader board.

Enjoy the rest of the match guys.

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Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore
"Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..."

yikes.

game
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add the c and back away
iphonesience

Eeeehhh... What just happened? A 74 vote update?!
O_o
I feel bad for Majora now...
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Nominate B.B. Hood for CB IX http://miniurl.org/ntI

Damn, the last 2 updates were big for FFX.
And more interesting is that Canada dropped by 0.3% and US by 0.1%
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*sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16

Assuming FFX holds on here, what percentage would it have to get on MM to make it a comfortable favorite against Brawl. Or would simply winning make it a comfortable favorite at this point? <_<
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"If God hates sin and Satan punishes the sinners, aren't they on the same side? Aren't the judge and executioner on the same team?"

And more interesting is that Canada dropped by 0.3% and US by 0.1%

And dropped 0.12% in North America, while FFX went up by 0.07% in Europe.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

Majora should make a comeback attempt once we get closer to noon, but it looks like with this lead and the second night vote, FFX should win this.

Hard to pick a game to win the finals, since both of our finalists looked like ass this round.

From: Jmast7 | #056
what percentage would it have to get on MM to make it a comfortable favorite against Brawl.

About 60% atleast... In other words, that's not gonna happen... The final is gonna be a complete toss up...
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Nominate B.B. Hood for CB IX http://miniurl.org/ntI

Did you see that? X might break 1400!

And Brawl-Fallout 3 had 85445 votes so it's more likely that the day votes is under 40 000. So the way I see it, it's gonna be pretty damn close.

Yeah. Let's say there's, heck, 50k votes left. Even at 51.5%, that's only a 1500 gain for MM.

This is it. 99.9% in the bag. MM better start doing something soon.

I'd say about 54%. And since that's obviously not happening, it's likely to be very close.
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*sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16

From: EvilNcr | #061
I'd say about 54%. And since that's obviously not happening, it's likely to be very close.

This is the percentage I was thinking given what Brawl did against TP. And, y'know, I expected MM to be cutting by now. The day vote is going to be diluted at best and I do wonder now if FFX might win (or at least tie) the day vote - these voting trends remind me a lot of Melee/Brawl. <_<
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"What if there is no God and you only go around once and that's it? Well, ya know, don't you wanna be part of the experience?"

dat Final Fantasy X day vote

Brawl may survive the night, but it couldn't do anything to freakin' Fallout in the day. Once the kiddies wake up, FFX gon' start dat rollin' all over that thar Brawl!
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Save_Us.Teedus

One more update over 1400 and you gotta call it.

Brawl has a lot more to worry about the EU vote than the morning vote. It lost it at 53% against a freaking WRPG while FFX has it at 54% against Zelda.
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*sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16

This could be close if the ASV was in full effect. That does not seem to be the case, however.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Yikes, that was a very bad half hour for Majora. I still rather like its chances to win even now though. MM's percentage will go up in North America as the day progresses, it's not limited to the 51.5% it's got there now. FFX didn't get a single hour above 55% with the night vote- IIRC, FFVII did against OOT, and still lost 52-48.

200 votes an hour from 10 to 6 is still 1600 votes, and MM probably doesn't have to lead at 6.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

Well, one has to give Fallout some credit there. Fallout is a classic PC series and for alot of people Fallout 3 was still a PC game... And we all know that PC gaming is much stronger in Europe than in the US...
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Nominate B.B. Hood for CB IX http://miniurl.org/ntI

eh, the votes come in all the same, it's just more spread out. FFX isn't awful in the day, it's just awful in the beginning of the poll. it's FF7 trends basically.
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xyzzy

Projections:

OOT/FFX Round 4: Majora's Mask with 50.99%
OOT/FFX Round 5: Majora's Mask with 50.68%

Projections still looking good for MM. Not much shift since 8 AM in these, actually- guess MM made up for a good hour from 8 to 9 with a bad one from 9 to 10.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

From: red sox 777 | #067
Yikes, that was a very bad half hour for Majora. I still rather like its chances to win even now though. MM's percentage will go up in North America as the day progresses, it's not limited to the 51.5% it's got there now. FFX didn't get a single hour above 55% with the night vote- IIRC, FFVII did against OOT, and still lost 52-48.

200 votes an hour from 10 to 6 is still 1600 votes, and MM probably doesn't have to lead at 6.

Are you comparing ASV vote spreads(FF7 Vs, OoT) vs a match without ASV vote spreads? I doubt that'll work out very well
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

FFX didn't get a single hour above 55% with the night vote- IIRC, FFVII did against OOT, and still lost 52-48.

At this point in the match, FFVII was already down 48-52%.

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Character is who you are when no one is watching.

FFVII/OOT had a very diluted ASV- most of the schools were already out by then. It's pretty similar to the situation today, actually.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

Oh, come on. That's it. I'm satisfied. Let MM win.

Anything more and MM is gonna start looking bad. Anything more and X becomes the favorite to beat Brawl!

Are you comparing ASV vote spreads(FF7 Vs, OoT) vs a match without ASV vote spreads? I doubt that'll work out very well

The ASV in FFVII/OoT might have been diluted as well, because it happened in the first week of June when some schools might have already gotten off for the summer.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

At this point in the match, FFVII was already down 48-52%

Because of FFVII's incredibly bad early vote (no, FFX's is not actually close to it). FFVII was also still rising at this point- it hit its peak percentage for the day at 10:17.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

I'm also not sure how you're computing those projections. Extrapolating round 5 OoT/FFVII trends to this match I have FFX winning 50.25%.

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Character is who you are when no one is watching.

As of the 9:47 update, FFX had 37.01% on OOT. It ended with 34.59%, a loss of 2.42% from this point onwards. FFX had 51.74% at 9:47 in this match, so if you just subtract 2.42%, you get 49.32% for FFX.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

Wait, you're using a 4way match with gallons of SFF just waiting to screw up the trends? =/
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

anything to give Zelda hope
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xyzzy

hey, Zelda finally won a 15 minute update.

too bad it lost that hour by 200 votes
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xyzzy

Oh, the OoT/FFX/MGS4/SSBB match I see.

Meh
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

I've found these types of projections are remarkably accurate as long as the games have similar trends to the current match. 4-ways don't even impact trends much. The only big assumption here is that OOT and MM have very similar trends, which is very reasonable I think.

The OOT/FFX trends have been overshooting FFX all night actually, which probably means that they'll undershoot it now that we've come to the day (if this match just has less day/night variation than OOT/FFX). But that's okay, because MM is projected to a fairly comfortable win by those trends right now. It can afford to get 1300 fewer votes than those trends project and still tie.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

I think you are clutching at a hell of a lot of straw there.
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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

I'm not, I feel about the same about this match as I did at 4 AM- MM being a slight favorite. We'll see soon enough.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

There we go! 1400 barrier finally broken.

Alright. I'm gonna take a break before I start rooting for MM. I'd never forgive myself for that.

where did those 10 minutes come from
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Am I reading that wrong then? Are you saying that if it followed those trends exactly it could afford to be 2700 votes down right now?
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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Fallout 3 didn't hit its peak percentage until 25 minutes from now - just saying. Seems like the day vote is much slower to come around here, and while I will call FFX the slight favorite, Majora can still storm back. If there's one time frame that seems to be even more diluted than the day vote, it's probably that second night vote. Majora still has 14 hours to work here, and it should have the ability to cut/gain/build in all 14.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

Well it is possible for MM, next few hours will be important.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 268/352 Today's Winner: Final Fantasy X

As of the 9:47 update, FFX had 37.01% on OOT. It ended with 34.59%, a loss of 2.42% from this point onwards. FFX had 51.74% at 9:47 in this match, so if you just subtract 2.42%, you get 49.32% for FFX.

Ok for starters I was using round 6 apparently. Using your match, I have an even more depressing (depending on your point of view) conclusion.

FFX ended with 34.59 from 36.95 (I took a slightly more recent update). That's a 2.42% point loss, yes, but you can't just carry that over. If FFX had 10% at this point (in a brutal 4-way or whatever) you wouldn't expect it to go all the way down to 7.5% after the ASV -- that'd be a 25% drop.

Taking that into account, based on the round 5 FFX/OoT match I have FFX finishing at (34.59/36.95)*51.62 = 48.32%.

^ Ouch. Let's hope Majora's Mask's ASV isn't quite as powerful.


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Character is who you are when no one is watching.

MM by the hour:

1:00 | 50.12%
2:00 | 50.14%
3:00 | 48.44%
4:00 | 48.10%
5:00 | 45.59%
6:00 | 46.30%
7:00 | 46.57%
8:00 | 45.53%
9:00 | 48.94%
10:00 | 47.32%

Good hour for MM, followed by a very bad one. I counted the 9-10 hour as ending at the 9:57 update, since it was closer to 10 than the 10:03 by a few seconds.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

Am I reading that wrong then? Are you saying that if it followed those trends exactly it could afford to be 2700 votes down right now?

No, that is not the case. I'm saying that if it followed those trends exactly, it would end up by 1300 votes. If it were down 2700 votes now, it would have a hard time cutting at all even with those trends.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

I counted the 9-10 hour as ending at the 9:57 update, since it was closer to 10 than the 10:03 by a few seconds.

In that specific case, I would have used 10:03 instead of 9:57, because I don't use the seconds part to determine what update to use for hourly trend charts. The exact second of the updates on creativename's updater is the exact time that the updater picked up the update and is not the exact time that the results updated on GameFAQs.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

We're almost 5000 votes ahead of yesterday.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

Ok for starters I was using round 6 apparently. Using your match, I have an even more depressing (depending on your point of view) conclusion.

FFX ended with 34.59 from 36.95 (I took a slightly more recent update). That's a 2.42% point loss, yes, but you can't just carry that over. If FFX had 10% at this point (in a brutal 4-way or whatever) you wouldn't expect it to go all the way down to 7.5% after the ASV -- that'd be a 25% drop.

Taking that into account, based on the round 5 FFX/OoT match I have FFX finishing at (34.59/36.95)*51.62 = 48.32%.

^ Ouch. Let's hope Majora's Mask's ASV isn't quite as powerful.

Yeah, I'm aware that just adding/subtracting isn't quite theoretically sound, but it's worked very well in the past as long as the games aren't too too far from 50%. I don't think trends work quite like x-stats, because we tend to see as many big percentage shifts in the 60s as the 50s, but I don't have any data to show that conclusively one way or the other.

By remarkably accurate, I mean my trend projections are very rarely off by more than 1% after 2 AM, as long as the analog match is chosen well. Crono/Vincent 2008 is the only case I remember where they were off by a lot and I wasn't using a clearly bad analog match, probably because Crono/Vincent 2007 had truly exceptional trends. Even with Crono/Vincent 2007, I think by 10 AM the projection was within 0.70% of the actual result, which is what FFX needs it to be off by more than today.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

MM could win this hour
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

That should read: Even with Crono/Vincent 2008, by 10 AM the projection was within 0.70% of the actual result.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

OoT vs. FF7's 4-way poll had FF7 gaining on Ocarina percentage-wise in the early morning, for what that's worth. I'm too lazy to calculate the hourly totals, but considering FF7 actually started losing lots of percentage after that morning vote, it seems to indicate that Ocarina did not pick up until hour 10.

Majora's Mask, please show us that the last hour was a fluke, and pick up your steam.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."