GameFAQs Contests

Wonder if FFX can hold off that morning vote.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man
---
·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·
"Oh that the world were more like Ulti." -MWC

so this is looking bad for majora's mask
---
Sir Chris

1161 lead at 8am. And doesn't seem to be slowing down.

This morning vote better hit soon.

---
Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore
"Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..."

Ok, I think one can conclude that the morning vote seems to do nothing to help Majora...
I'm hereby calling this one for FFX...
---
Nominate B.B. Hood for CB IX http://miniurl.org/ntI

Nice switch! About time we got one for the home team...

1161. If that's not enough, **** this. Also, still going up...

Majora's Mask just dropped by 0.08% in North America on the last Geolocation update (updates every 10 minutes). As long Majora's Mask doesn't start dropping even more, it has a chance to get the morning vote here.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

The US vote got cut down a little bit too. I'm not ready to call it but this trend is likely to gain slowly until 10 to noon..
---
*sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16

From: Djungelurban | #001
Ok, I think one can conclude that the morning vote seems to do nothing to help Majora...
I'm hereby calling this one for FFX...

It's 8 AM on the east coast and 99% of schools in America are on break, and have been this entire week or longer. Same with colleges. How many of those voters do you really think are up and on GameFAQs? Much less those on the west coast where it's 5 AM.
---
"I submitted brackets on all [224] of my accounts so they would get the 10 free Karma for beating SBAllen's score." - Luster Soldier

Who switched? I sure didn't... I've backed FFX all along...
---
Nominate B.B. Hood for CB IX http://miniurl.org/ntI

It's 8 AM on the east coast and 99% of schools in America are on break

I think 99% might be a heavy overestimation. Probably closer to around 90% instead. I know my school district goes all the way to December 23rd before getting out.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

From: Azp2k32 | #008
How many of those voters do you really think are up and on GameFAQs?

Probably not most of them, but atleast enough that Majora should slow the rate at which FFX is pulling away if it wants to have any chance in this round... But if anything, FFX is pulling away even quicker now which leads me to believe that even once the morning vote goes into full effect it will not be powerful enough to topple FFX, assuming it even helps Majora at all...
---
Nominate B.B. Hood for CB IX http://miniurl.org/ntI

No lol I mean topic switch. The droning and droning! If I hear about Zelda music again I'm gonna barf.

Another Geolocation update and Majora's Mask just dropped another 0.07% in North America. So Majora's Mask has gone from 51.41% to 51.26% in just 20 minutes.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

lol well the win go 2 FFX
now is the time for teh final boss
---
Official Ventus Luck Charm of the Kingdom Hearts: Birth By Sleep Board XD
Official Hiyakki of the Pokemon Black Board XD

From: paerarru | Posted: 12/23/2010 12:13:39 AM | #012
No lol I mean topic switch. The droning and droning! If I hear about Zelda music again I'm gonna barf.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNDLoncWz30

---
Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore
"Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..."

FFX leads by 1200 a bit after 8 AM. That's.....good, I think, for MM. The morning vote always takes some time to set it- gotta give MM until 9 to start cutting before we start to worry about it.

Projections:

Round 4 OOT/FFX: Majora's Mask with 51.19%
Round 5 OOT/FFX: Majora's Mask with 50.60%

Round 5 was on a Sunday, while Round 4 was on a weekday, so Round 5 is probably the better analog given as most schools are out today. And looking at that match, FFX's percentage on OOT didn't peak until 9 or so.
---
Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

AAAAAAARRRRGGGHHHHHH!!!!

:head explode:

And there's a cut. Can't let it gain too much more if it wants to start a comeback. IMO it's probably already too late.
---
Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore
"Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..."

Oh hellz no!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xRCjjiTR7I

Maybe we wont hit part 1000 this contest, as we thought we would pre-contest.
---
How would a Kirby that has eaten me look like? (Made by KG)
http://i1000.photobucket.com/albums/af128/kirbys_gal11/ctesjbuvf.png

Two is a trend! >_>
---
Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore
"Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..."

FFX will really need to collapse now to lose this. MM has been dropping in N. America for a while now. This is exactly like Cloud/Samus.
---
29/11/2010. Never forget. http://64.210.151.102/image.html?u=12565&dateline=1210104981

MM has been dropping in N. America for a while now.

Only for the past 30 minutes. It was at 51.41% at 7:55 AM and now it's at 51.25% as of 8:25 AM.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

MM's got plenty of time- all day that is- to make the comeback.

MM by the hour:

1:00 | 50.12%
2:00 | 50.14%
3:00 | 48.44%
4:00 | 48.10%
5:00 | 45.59%
6:00 | 46.30%
7:00 | 46.57%
8:00 | 45.53%
---
Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

I have the 210th best bracket, really?

Haha.

---
GT: TriggerTRE // PSN ID: SolidTRE
GOTD SWEET 16: FO3, Halo, MP, GTA3, SSBM, SSBB, Z:TP, KH2, FFX, FFIX, RE4, CC:FF7, MSG3, MGS4, Z:MM, Z:WW

Yeah those last couple of hours really hurt it. I really can't see it coming back from this, especially with a second night vote to come.
---
Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore
"Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..."

Although, that's 3 cuts in a row. Gah, I need to sleep soon too. What timing.
---
Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore
"Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..."

There's 3 cuts in a row- they say 3 updates is a trend. The second night vote should be pretty small. It used to be much more important when the poll ended at 3 AM, but nowadays, FFX won't realistically get more than a couple hundred from it.
---
Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

And another gain.
---
*sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16

And then FFX ruined all the progress Majora made in one fell swoop...
---
Nominate B.B. Hood for CB IX http://miniurl.org/ntI

FFX should be the heavy favorite here. low vote totals means that 1200 votes is more like 1600. I think we'll see a stall for a while and then maybe 500 votes get cut. I don't have faith in MM's day vote like I do other Zelda games.
---
add the c and back away
iphonesience

Shouldn't there be some kind of morning vote for MM. When's it coming?

From: paerarru | Posted: 12/23/2010 12:40:40 AM | #032
Shouldn't there be some kind of morning vote for MM. When's it coming?

Should be stalling now and then cutting somewhat consistently in 20 minutes supposedly. Fingers crossed.

---
Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore
"Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..."

I guess we gotta wait for Texas to wake up or something.

That looked like Majora's biggest update in terms of percentage of the match. Need some more of that.
---
Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore
"Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..."

MM is stalling this hour. Next hour will be cuts. Past 10 AM we'll have heavy cuts.

And there's a 36 vote cut right there.
---
Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.

FFX is also losing some ground in Europe, so they are partially contributing to the stalling that's been going on lately.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

And then another 29 votes in FFX's favor... I can agree that there's stalling now, but if stalling is all that Majora is capable of, then this won't change anything.
---
Nominate B.B. Hood for CB IX http://miniurl.org/ntI

I'm itching. I wanna see these cuts. Bring it, MM!

Go Majora, if it does win or come close to winning here, maybe we can stop all these crap about MGS3 being the weakest link of 1st seed, MGS3 could still potentially beat RE4, Galaxy, MP or FO3(don't trust that brawl match much, HL2 ended up scoring around 46% on TP and TOS/GOW would beat KH2 lol).

For the record... I calculated what a 51.5% day vote would look like for MM with the average 45000 it brings : 1350 votes
FFX currently holds 1247 so... it's more than enough time for MM.
---
*sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16

Damn, 1350 votes at 51.5%. Oh yeah, there's a storm coming. But maybe it will be composed of little cuts throughout the day...

ffx won that hour by 80 votes and didn't lose a single 15 minute update. that'll change soon but it's not in trouble yet.
---
add the c and back away
iphonesience

What was the most voted night match in the contest? And do we know how much Brawl > FO3 got in the first half?

Well, I aimed high but 51.5% for MM is unlikely unless the NA vote gets a big boost. Every other region supports FFX and the NA is at 51.31%.
And Brawl-Fallout 3 had 85445 votes so it's more likely that the day votes is under 40 000. So the way I see it, it's gonna be pretty damn close.
---
*sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16

What was the most voted night match in the contest?

FFX/RE4
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!

Thanks.

Dang, 47531. Lots of people showed up, or something. That means we're gonna have a nice day vote... argh.

Or a large morning vote.

Oh yeah, and despite the percentages, I've been tracking the updates since a little bit :

1243
1206
1235
1251
1247
1242
1268
1280
---
*sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16

You know, there's a site for that:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4194&num=2
---
Nominate B.B. Hood for CB IX http://miniurl.org/ntI