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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 986

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ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/22/2010 1:37:13 AM | message detail
Yeah but the ASV is now when NA wakes up, and we all know that it will favor MM.
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MasterOfOrionII | Posted 12/22/2010 1:40:44 AM | message detail

From: The Immortal Phoenix | #1960
Not necessarily, FFX is insanely popular even in NA. It is not that far off (48.4% vs 51.6%) So it could change.


The unpredictable thing here is that the current NA %age is probably inflated by the Power Hour bias towards MM.

But at the same time, once the late morning/afternoon trends start up, Zelda should increase its NA %age from where it is at the time.

This is a very dynamic match.
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AxemPink | Posted 12/22/2010 1:47:15 AM | message detail
A 60% update there. FFX gained 89 votes over the last two updates. It might build up a decent lead yet.
Janus5000 | Posted 12/22/2010 1:49:55 AM | message detail
in other words MM stall incoming
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Lucid Faia | Posted 12/22/2010 2:04:57 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #399
Actually, I didn't know WoW was actually popular in China and had a real fanbase there (as opposed to a workbase). I really thought they were gold farmers. >_>


Millions of them? =\

I assume you're one of those people that thinks that Starcraft "saved" South Korea's economy.

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-Tofa7- | Posted 12/22/2010 2:07:39 AM | message detail
Wow, FFX put its foot on the accelerator the past hour. It took its time, but its finally making use of the night. It'll definitely break 1000 by morning at this rate.

And of course while I'm typing that, there's the first Majora's Mask in an hour.

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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/22/2010 2:24:02 AM | message detail
@koobeeny: Those happened to be the final two in Crispy Gamer's Game of the Decade contest. Though the thing is, that contest did not even have SSBB, FFX, or MM.

Yep looks like FFX quite messing around. Oh well, whatever. GameFAQs and its JRPGs.

We think SotC was legit and not bandwagoned, right?
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SabrielAbhorsen | Posted 12/22/2010 2:24:23 AM | message detail
Guys I don't understand how the last battle pick is supposed to work. Can someone explain it?
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 12/22/2010 2:27:11 AM | message detail
lol @ BT gettin beat by Jiggy55
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/22/2010 2:28:32 AM | message detail
Guys I don't understand how the last battle pick is supposed to work. Can someone explain it?

From what I can tell, I think it works like this:

If you think Brawl will win, pick one of these options:

Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Brawl over Final Fantasy X, Majora's Mask over Brawl

If you think Final Fantasy X will win, pick one of these options:

Final Fantasy X over Brawl, Majora's Mask over Brawl
Final Fantasy X over Brawl, Brawl over Majora's Mask

And finally, if you think Majora's Mask will win, pick one of these options:

Brawl over Final Fantasy X, Majora's Mask over Brawl
Final Fantasy X over Brawl, Majora's Mask over Brawl
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Janus5000 | Posted 12/22/2010 2:34:03 AM | message detail
More simply: there are two possible finals. Since the last finalist is undetermined, you pick a result for both.

If you think Brawl beats either FFX or MM, pick the first one.
For something like this: Brawl over Final Fantasy X, Majora's Mask over Brawl
it basically says if FFX wins, you pick Brawl, and in MM wins, you pick MM.
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-Tofa7- | Posted 12/22/2010 2:36:19 AM | message detail
It's simple really. Luster explained it, but I think this might be easier to understand.

Super Smash Bros. Brawl
You think Brawl will win no matter who it faces between FFX and MM.

Brawl over Final Fantasy X, Majora's Mask over Brawl
You think Brawl will win if its facing FFX. But if it's facing MM, you think MM will win.

Final Fantasy X over Brawl, Majora's Mask over Brawl
You think Brawl will lose no matter who it faces between FFX and MM

Final Fantasy X over Brawl, Brawl over Majora's Mask
You think Brawl will lose if it faces FFX, but will win if it faces MM.


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SabrielAbhorsen | Posted 12/22/2010 2:45:04 AM | message detail
Ah OK that makes sense. For some reason I thought we would have to make the last pick "blind", but this makes more sense with how the rest of the battle challenge went.
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SabrielAbhorsen | Posted 12/22/2010 2:45:54 AM | message detail
Btw, who you guys got? I'm still taking Brawl regardless of who wins here.
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-Tofa7- | Posted 12/22/2010 2:50:49 AM | message detail
I lucked out of the battle contest a long time ago, so I haven't really given it as much thought as I should.

If I had to choose though, despite it failing to impress against Twilight Princess and Fallout 3, I think Brawl will still easily take the match. I don't think Majora will have a chance if it makes it through, as the Nintendo fans will favor Brawl. If FFX makes it through, Brawl would be under a little more threat i think, but I still think it will sneak out a win.

My gut feeling said Brawl would be the winner before the contest started, and following my gut has got me to 7th on the leaderboard. I have no reason to stop trusting it now.

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-Tofa7- | Posted 12/22/2010 2:53:17 AM | message detail
Also, these 20 minute Majora's Mask stalls are a thing of beauty. Hopefully it can keep it up. FFX doesn't look like it'll reach the target 1500 vote lead by morning at this rate. This match will get very interesting over the next few hours.

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-Tofa7- | Posted 12/22/2010 2:54:43 AM | message detail
Didn't realize it was almost 6am in the East Coast. Hell, it might not even hit 1000.
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SecksThaNemesis | Posted 12/22/2010 2:55:22 AM | message detail
A few updates like that last one and it will. >.>
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-Tofa7- | Posted 12/22/2010 2:59:09 AM | message detail
This was brought up before by someone else, but now I'm really starting to beleive it:

There seems to be a direct correlation between ExTha posts and FFX vote spikes. When you left earlier in the match Majora was cutting and stalling the whole time >_>

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Denzokuken | Posted 12/22/2010 2:59:25 AM | message detail
Who's to say FFX isn't just like FFVII and won't just gain in NA% all day? If it is like that (big if), I think it can weather the Zelda day vote.
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SecksThaNemesis | Posted 12/22/2010 3:01:31 AM | message detail

From: -Tofa7- | #419
This was brought up before by someone else, but now I'm really starting to beleive it:

There seems to be a direct correlation between ExTha posts and FFX vote spikes. When you left earlier in the match Majora was cutting and stalling the whole time >_>


Yeah you know, I had been away from the computer for like 2 hours cleaning and looking through stuff, and literally the UPDATE I'm back for, FFX gets a spike. What the hell, man?
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transcience | Posted 12/22/2010 3:07:07 AM | message detail
dat night vote

tough to say what happens here -- if FFX is like FF7 then it should hang on, if it's like CT it probably loses. I lean more towards FF7.

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SecksThaNemesis | Posted 12/22/2010 3:08:53 AM | message detail
dem ffx fanboys
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/22/2010 3:09:54 AM | message detail
FFX has already won this. Brawl showed us what's happened to the day vote with basically every school being out by now.

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-Tofa7- | Posted 12/22/2010 3:10:52 AM | message detail
The day vote is still there though. It's just more spread out. I don't see how it would make that much of a difference.
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ffdgh1 | Posted 12/22/2010 3:11:12 AM | message detail
hmm most americans are out 4 christmas break sooooo..
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/22/2010 3:13:24 AM | message detail
Only a small number of schools haven't gotten off yet. My high school runs until December 23rd as the last day of school before the Christmas break and I'm sure a lot of other schools in my state do the same thing too. It's probably a regional thing as to when schools get off for Christmas break.

Didn't realize it was almost 6am in the East Coast. Hell, it might not even hit 1000.

It is about 6 AM here, because I'm on the East Coast.
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Janus5000 | Posted 12/22/2010 3:15:18 AM | message detail
The only issue is that FFX may not be as balanced as FO3. MM may not be as day-crushing as Brawl, but FFX has proven to be a creature of the night.
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FFaddict1313 | Posted 12/22/2010 3:15:26 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
ffdgh1 | Posted 12/22/2010 3:16:16 AM | message detail
my highschool let us out on the 17th XP
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FFaddict1313 | Posted 12/22/2010 3:16:42 AM | message detail
From: -LusterSoldier- | Posted: 12/22/2010 6:13:24 AM | #427
Only a small number of schools haven't gotten off yet. My high school runs until December 23rd as the last day of school before the Christmas break and I'm sure a lot of other schools in my state do the same thing too. It's probably a regional thing as to when schools get off for Christmas break.

uh

is your school district full of robots who love doing crazy amounts work?

this would also explain so much
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/22/2010 3:17:24 AM | message detail
is your school district full of robots who love doing crazy amounts work?

I don't know.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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Djungelurban | Posted 12/22/2010 3:17:44 AM | message detail
He's probably in Korea...
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/22/2010 3:18:00 AM | message detail
No, I'm in the US.
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-Tofa7- | Posted 12/22/2010 3:19:01 AM | message detail
By 8am, there will still be ~55000 more votes left to be cast. If Majora can average 51% of the vote for the rest of the match from that point, it'll gain ~1100 votes on FFX.

My estimates could be way off, since this is the first time I've bothered to do calculations like this, but I think if Majora can keep FFX under 1000 by the time morning hits, it'll still have a decent shot at pulling of the upset.

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Achromatic | Posted 12/22/2010 3:19:37 AM | message detail
for one, majora's mask isnt winning the second night vote, so thats something to keep in mind.
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Lopen | Posted 12/22/2010 3:20:36 AM | message detail
51% is rather ambitious considering Majora's Mask doesn't even have that in the US right now.
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Janus5000 | Posted 12/22/2010 3:22:36 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4194&region=CA

Never underestimate Canada, boy...!
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Lopen | Posted 12/22/2010 3:24:32 AM | message detail
I swear if those damn Canadians cost FFX this match I'll cancel my Canada fanclub membership
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-Tofa7- | Posted 12/22/2010 3:25:35 AM | message detail

From: Lopen | Posted: 12/22/2010 10:20:36 PM | #437
51% is rather ambitious considering Majora's Mask doesn't even have that in the US right now.


It has 50.82, which is damn close. And when the kiddies wake up, you know they'll be favoring Zelda.

It'll basically come down to:
- How much effect the diluted ASV actually has.
- How strong the 2nd night vote is.

My money would still be on FFX at this point, but I refuse to give up on MM. Won't be counting it out until I see where the match is at in 2 hours time.

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Lopen | Posted 12/22/2010 3:27:06 AM | message detail
I dunno if they'll favor it all that much

That power hour vote was something fierce and is still being fought down.

But yeah you can't count MM out, unfortunately.
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Calintares | Posted 12/22/2010 3:28:01 AM | message detail
Where does Fierce Deity Link place within the hierarchy of Link incarnations?

He's obviously the most powerful, and also the "coolest" edging out Dark Link, but he's nowhere near as Iconic as the classic adult Link.

So:

Fierce Deity vs Toon Link
Fierce Deity vs Dark Link
Fierce Deity vs Young Link
Fierce Deity vs Ganondorf
Fierce Deity vs Classic Link
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FFaddict1313 | Posted 12/22/2010 3:29:57 AM | message detail
since when is ganondorf an incarnation of link
-Tofa7- | Posted 12/22/2010 3:32:15 AM | message detail
Classic > Young > Fierce Diety >= Toon >>>> Ganondorf

Unsure about Toon Link, I think Brawl might have given him a decent boost.

Also, if the different Link's were separated like that in an actual contest, for some reason I think I'd take Dark Link over every Link except Classic >_>

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Lopen | Posted 12/22/2010 3:32:56 AM | message detail
Ganondorf could totally beat Fierce Deity and Toon Link

Totally
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ffdgh1 | Posted 12/22/2010 3:34:33 AM | message detail
what about fierce diety toon link?
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FFaddict1313 | Posted 12/22/2010 3:34:43 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
shane15 | Posted 12/22/2010 3:34:59 AM | message detail
I come back from Purg to find FFX winning.Today is a glorius day.Now we just need it to defeat Brawl and NintendoFAQS has been defeated once again.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v303/Shaneh87/Shades.gif?t=1293017688
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-Tofa7- | Posted 12/22/2010 3:35:14 AM | message detail

From: Lopen | Posted: 12/22/2010 10:32:56 PM | #445
Ganondorf could totally beat Fierce Deity and Toon Link


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1750

That's a lot of percentage to make up for. Toon Link or not.

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SecksThaNemesis | Posted 12/22/2010 3:37:15 AM | message detail
800 vote barrier ACTIAVTED
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