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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 985

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/21/2010 7:05:39 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy vs. Zelda should kick up the votals. Brawl will look even worse if this next match draws 100k+ easy. And it might.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/21/2010 7:08:59 PM | message detail
Oh my god.

Okay, I'm a believer. Brawl is ****ed.

Let's do this Majora's Mask.

Lay down the L.A.W.
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
~*~TEAM RK-VOLTCH'D~*~
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/21/2010 7:09:16 PM | message detail
Man, we almost went an entire contest without FF vs. Zelda in some form.

That would've been a first.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/21/2010 7:10:11 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #352
Let's do this Majora's Mask


whoops
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Support Morrigan Aensland (Darkstalkers) for Character Battle IX!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/21/2010 7:14:00 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #353
Man, we almost went an entire contest without FF vs. Zelda in some form.

That would've been a first.


Huh... I'm surprised no one brought this up before. I'd figure someone would notice and then use that as their justification for FFX/MM in the semis.

"They MUST meet!"
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/21/2010 7:15:14 PM | message detail
Well, I noticed it before the contest, but if I had done that, I would've gone FFX/WW instead, so yeah!
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Janus5000 | Posted 12/21/2010 7:15:23 PM | message detail
Hmmm.

Is it possible some of the things FO3 faced are overrated (especially Metroid Prime) because they had to face it at night? The game is demonstrating that it may be day-oriented.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/21/2010 7:16:40 PM | message detail
Prepare for the imminent "here we go again Zelda vs FF for the finals why do we even have these contest" whining tomorrow!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/21/2010 7:17:03 PM | message detail

From: Janus5000 | #357
Hmmm.

Is it possible some of the things FO3 faced are overrated (especially Metroid Prime) because they had to face it at night? The game is demonstrating that it may be day-oriented.


Nah, FO3 is a pretty balanced game, I think. I don't think it leans heavily one direction or the other, not enough to mess up the stats significantly anyway.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/21/2010 7:17:52 PM | message detail
I mean, if this had just been a 12 hour night match, the stats would've been even MORE messed up...!
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/21/2010 7:25:48 PM | message detail
Brawl has only gone up about .5% since the half way mark.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 236/320 Today's Winner: Super Smash Bros. Brawl
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/21/2010 7:26:59 PM | message detail
Allow me to play the world's smallest violin for Brawl.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/21/2010 7:42:07 PM | message detail
I hope FFX dominates the final. F*** Brawl.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/21/2010 7:42:17 PM | message detail
(Or Zelda, that would be fine as well)
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Haste_2 | Posted 12/21/2010 7:42:48 PM | message detail
I'm raising my Majora's Mask flag for tomorrow, but assuming Final Fantasy X makes the finals, I think I'm voting for FFX over Brawl, despite liking Brawl a hundred times more. Nintendo needs to stop winning!

Man, these vote totals are horrendous. We may not even get 85,000 here.
Isn't it kind of normal? 50,000 votes in the day and 35,000 at night is about normal, right? (I'm too lazy to check normal matches) Plus, more than a handful of voters vote in two polls a day, so it won't quite add up, anyway. Tomorrow's vote totals should be much better, of course. When I think about it, being near Christmas might mean less traffic on the site, too....

Well, at least I will probably look less stupid for predicting "only" 110000 votes for the tiebreaker.....

you know, it's division 2 in particular that looks insane. maybe the outlier is Metroid Prime / Fallout 3, not Fallout 3 / Brawl.
Maybe you're right. You could take Fallout's impressive score on Halo to actually mean something. Of course, it makes Halo quite a bit above Halo 2, but interesting, you could say that Halo 3 was actually not "SFFed" by Halo 1, and it still is a bit above Halo 2! (this would suggest Halo 2 and 3 have fallen, but Halo has been constant, which I don't consider unbelievable). The only problem is it makes Batman look like a powerhouse.... that's kind of a hard to believe.

Also, Prime's best match picture was against Fallout, for what it's worth. (at least, IMO)

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red sox 777 | Posted 12/21/2010 7:45:03 PM | message detail
Brawl hasn't even gained 1% from its bottom point. Wow. Ready for what could end up being the match of the contest in an hour, if it's close and the final isn't.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/21/2010 7:45:08 PM | message detail
A vote for FFX is a vote, by proxy, for RE4's strength.

I know which game has my support
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IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/21/2010 7:49:05 PM | message detail
At this rate, it'll take FFX ... 150 years to catch Brawl!

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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/21/2010 7:55:48 PM | message detail
Brawl must die. FFX all the way.

Actually Majora's Mask should beat both games!
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/21/2010 7:58:39 PM | message detail
I honestly feel like FFX would beat Brawl, but could lose to MM, and I don't think MM can beat Brawl. I think there's some weird SFF there.
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/21/2010 8:02:13 PM | message detail
Well, of what's left, I think Brawl > MM is the only sure thing. I'm still liking Brawl > FFX, and I never really bought into MM > FFX.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/21/2010 8:07:07 PM | message detail
CXXVI: (1) Final Fantasy X vs. (1) The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask

Last Round

Final Fantasy X – 56.81%
Resident Evil 4 – 43.19%

Metal Gear Solid 3 – 42.30%
The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask – 57.70%

Analysis

Both games had very similar performances on games that had similar performances last year and for a match that I expect to be close I do have a lot of confidence in Final Fantasy X. Majora’s Mask has impressed all contest going from winning big to causing a stats topic riot yet I don’t see myself pulling the trigger on the upset.

I think the main difference is that Majora’s Mask’s match was during the day which is a huge boost to the game and a terrible scenario for Metal Gear Solid 3. Second even if you ignore Shadow of the Colossus Metal Gear Solid has performed terribly this contest and to think that Resident Evil 4 is still equal to that just seems unlikely. I also feel that the board has been on Final Fantasy X’s chain for the entire contest, people were still taking the game over Majora’s Mask despite expecting it to barely defeat Resident Evil 4 while expecting Metal Gear Solid 3 to put up a similar performance to what it did last round.

I’m kind of glad that this match is 24 hours because this may be one of the cases where the time of day could have dictated the winner. Majora’s Mask should start off with a sizable lead and it’ll be up to Final Fantasy X to cut back and create its own while hoping it’ll be enough to stop any kind of day push from Majora’s Mask.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Final Fantasy X > Pokemon GSC

charmander6000’s Prediction: Final Fantasy X wins, 52.64% - 47.36%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 236/320 Today's Winner: Super Smash Bros. Brawl
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/21/2010 8:08:41 PM | message detail
Now watch FFX/MM not even be close
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Haste_2 | Posted 12/21/2010 8:10:34 PM | message detail
Zelda: MM beats FFX with 55.96%. Believe it!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
ZenOfThunder | Posted 12/21/2010 8:11:12 PM | message detail
Zelda: MM beats FFX with 110% believe it
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tee316 | Posted 12/21/2010 8:15:57 PM | message detail
To me FFX vs MM is the last real interesting match. Not really looking forward to Brawl vs the winner.
AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/21/2010 8:16:05 PM | message detail
How many seconds does MM lead? I'm guessing 22
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/21/2010 8:17:31 PM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #367
A vote for FFX is a vote, by proxy, for RE4's strength.

I know which game has my support


I like the way you think.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/21/2010 8:19:05 PM | message detail

From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #377
How many seconds does MM lead? I'm guessing 22


It might lead until the freeze
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/21/2010 8:20:16 PM | message detail
dat Power Hour gon put MM ahead for the first two hours imo
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/21/2010 8:22:24 PM | message detail
Yeah like that RE4 power hour
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"if only there were some way I could have sex" - Smartmuffin
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/21/2010 8:25:37 PM | message detail
If you listen carefully, you may hear the familiar sound of ExTha jumping on the most popular bandwagon he can find
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Support Barret Wallace (Final Fantasy VII) for Character Battle IX!
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/21/2010 8:27:20 PM | message detail
Yeah I agree in MM > Brawl looking wrong, but FFX > Brawl being possible.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/21/2010 8:27:29 PM | message detail
Why the hell is it only bandwagoning when I do it?

God damnit you guys.
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
~*~TEAM RK-VOLTCH'D~*~
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/21/2010 8:28:03 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #383
Yeah I agree in MM > Brawl looking wrong, but FFX > Brawl being possible.


I can't give you an explanation on it for the life of me. Like. I don't know why Brawl > MM > FFX > Brawl makes ANY sense but it does.
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
~*~TEAM RK-VOLTCH'D~*~
red sox 777 | Posted 12/21/2010 8:28:26 PM | message detail
but Fallout 3 has not had the performances of a game that deserves 46% on Brawl. if you compiled a full set of stats, just about every game from division 1 and 2 would look eerily strong. Arkham Asylum would probably be projected to rock all the 2009 games in the bracket. I think one good idea is that Brawl has only really faced Nintendo competition. another is just that this match is fluky. we'll see in 36 hours.

I think Brawl having so much Nintendo competition could be it. Perhaps it just won the SFF against Melee and TP, and it's really no stronger than those games (or even weaker).

Brawl and Melee and Twilight Princess all suck and FFX is going to 60/40 Brawl.

Excellent idea, as long as FFX gets to get 70-30'd by OOT afterwards!


1. There's a big difference between voting for a game in round 1, round 2...and the finals. You can go "Brawl? Sure" in the beginning and then go "Wait, Brawl might actually win the whole thing? Screw that"
2. It beat Melee. However much charmander wants to say it's a vocal minority, that definitely pissed off some people.


I agree fully with #1, but not with #2. The people who are going to anti-vote Brawl for beating Melee were never going to vote for Brawl in the first place. I disagree strongly with charmander that it's so small a minority that it's insignificant; I'd estimate it at upwards of 10% of voters in a Smash/Smash match, or upwards of 20% of Melee voters, at a minimum. Could be substantially higher. Of course, like any other voters, these voters are not automatically going to vote for anything over Brawl; most of them would vote Brawl over Big Rigs for example, assuming Big Rigs didn't come off as a joke.

we're definitely not going to have a neat set of stats. that's a great thing - means we had a cool last week to the contest.

As long as the final is free of significant SFF, we're going to have quite a neat set of stats, I think. It's not going to be SC2K4, but that's the exception rather than the rule. We have a 1v1 contest that doesn't put too many games behind SFF- that's about as good as you can expect from stats. And I don't really like the idea of calling this match illegitimate too quickly, because this is in some ways the fairest match Brawl has had all contest- free from SFF, AND against a strong, non-fodderific opponent. Though I agree there's a good chance it's an overperformance, because we've seen numerous times in late-game matches against perceived favorites to win contests before (Ganon, Bowser, CT, and SSBM most notably).
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/21/2010 8:29:00 PM | message detail
I wasn't making fun of you, James. I legitimately agree with you.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/21/2010 8:30:13 PM | message detail
Well, you've joined up with the enemy, so you deserve whatever you get!
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/21/2010 8:30:34 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #387
I wasn't making fun of you, James. I legitimately agree with you.


Haha, I knew that.

But sometimes it does get a little tough to tell the difference.

Because you're all making fun of me so often.

;_;
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
~*~TEAM RK-VOLTCH'D~*~
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/21/2010 8:31:17 PM | message detail
If you'd stop bandwagoning, you wouldn't get made fun of.
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transients | Posted 12/21/2010 8:31:27 PM | message detail
I'm still trying to figure out how you flipped out over GSC > Majora's Mask but now support Majora's Mask to win it all!
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xyzzy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/21/2010 8:32:27 PM | message detail

From: transients | #391
I'm still trying to figure out how you flipped out over GSC > Majora's Mask but now support Majora's Mask to win it all!


Bandwagoning
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/21/2010 8:33:24 PM | message detail

From: transients | #391
I'm still trying to figure out how you flipped out over GSC > Majora's Mask but now support Majora's Mask to win it all!


I explained this. Majora's Mask is one of my favorite games.

And the reason I flipped out wasn't because a bad game was beating a good one or anything, it was that the result DIDN'T MAKE ANY ****ING SENSE.
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
~*~TEAM RK-VOLTCH'D~*~
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/21/2010 8:33:47 PM | message detail
Also there's the fact that I find Brawl deplorable and really don't like FFX either.
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
~*~TEAM RK-VOLTCH'D~*~
red sox 777 | Posted 12/21/2010 8:34:01 PM | message detail
I guess you could say it's the opposite of what Link did last contest. People were fine anti-voting Link against competition he would never lose to, but when he faced the big boys, he brought out the ZELDA hammer.

Link was anti-voted in every match last contest. He was 50/50 with Sonic through 100 votes. Sonic! Then he had a meteoric rise up to 70% that would make Cloud jealous. Against Mario, he finished 6.5% higher than where he was at the freeze- Cloud wouldn't beat that by much, if at all. Cloud himself was at 45% on Link in the first minute before falling back some, though he did end higher of course (46.5%).

FF7 beat Ocarina of Time in 2004 and then destroyed Melee. that would be a good comparison to what's happening here if it is indeed anti-voting.

Destroyed Melee and CT by much less than it should have. CT was projected to 46% on OOT, Melee (which got 56% on MGS2, remember) was projected to 40% on OOT- way too high, as we learned last year.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
transients | Posted 12/21/2010 8:34:06 PM | message detail
if that's true, why didn't you celebrate the result?
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xyzzy
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/21/2010 8:34:28 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #392
Bandwagoning


I hate all of you
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
~*~TEAM RK-VOLTCH'D~*~
AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/21/2010 8:34:45 PM | message detail
Still one of my favorite quotes.

Most people think that Final Fantasy VII is ExThaNemesis' favorite game, but in reality, it's #2. His true favorite game is The Oregon Trail, because there's always another wagon to jump on.
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Philly is the greatest city in the world. Go Flyers! Also WC is better than me.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/21/2010 8:34:47 PM | message detail

From: transients | #396
if that's true, why didn't you celebrate the result?


Because it crushed my bracket.
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
~*~TEAM RK-VOLTCH'D~*~
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/21/2010 8:35:32 PM | message detail

From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #398
Still one of my favorite quotes.

Most people think that Final Fantasy VII is ExThaNemesis' favorite game, but in reality, it's #2. His true favorite game is The Oregon Trail, because there's always another wagon to jump on.


Yessssss
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."