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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 985

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Achromatic | Posted 12/21/2010 1:00:39 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #199
You can't really take anything from this match. FO3 being this close to Brawl makes no sense considering the game defeated Melee and TP. I don't think it's anti-votes either, sure some people hate the game, but that's a vocal minority.

"hey we have a result right here"

"well, you cant take anything from it"

lol
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Sir Chris

Pondoe | Posted 12/21/2010 1:02:25 PM | message detail

Remind me again why it's not possible that FO3 is strong at all.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/21/2010 1:03:40 PM | message detail

This is Brawl's first non-Nintendo match all contest that matters and we're supposed to just 'not take anything from it'?

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DFF.

TheCodeisBosco | Posted 12/21/2010 1:06:23 PM | message detail

My thoughts on today's match, as well as yesterday's:

1) Yikes, MGS3 got killed! Majora's a monster, seriously; and its insane performances here make Pokemon RBY look really, really good.

2) Am I the only one who'd be interested to see a rematch between Leon and Vault Boy? >_>

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PLANTS VS. ZOMBIES
The "Game of the Decade" winner. (In my heart!)

KamikazePotato | Posted 12/21/2010 1:09:05 PM | message detail

2) Am I the only one who'd be interested to see a rematch between Leon and Vault Boy? >_>

Next Character Battle is going to be fun. People have forgotten that games=/=characters (and that these games were probably at this strength level last year anyway and were just hidden behind 4-ways and LFF/SFF), are gonna pick against Pokemon and Snake, and probably get burned!

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DFF.

transients | Posted 12/21/2010 1:10:44 PM | message detail

this match is funny but I'm more inclined to blame the last week of the contest than Brawl. I remember one year where Kirby just randomly became a god-killer and led Cloud for an hour. things like that just happen in the last weeks of contests. the voters aren't robots - they get behind underdogs and notice that Nintendo is dominating the whole thing. this isn't the kind of thing a Final Fantasy game can take advantage of, not as much as something like Fallout.

I'm totally spinning this result but look at the stats if you don't. Prime gets like 47% on Twilight Princess according to this. does anybody actually believe that?
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xyzzy

Achromatic | Posted 12/21/2010 1:11:24 PM | message detail

From: transients | #206
this match is funny but I'm more inclined to blame the last week of the contest than Brawl. I remember one year where Kirby just randomly became a god-killer and led Cloud for an hour. things like that just happen in the last weeks of contests. the voters aren't robots - they get behind underdogs and notice that Nintendo is dominating the whole thing. this isn't the kind of thing a Final Fantasy game can take advantage of, not as much as something like Fallout.

I'm totally spinning this result but look at the stats if you don't. Prime gets like 47% on Twilight Princess according to this. does anybody actually believe that?

Minus SFF? yes.
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Sir Chris

AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/21/2010 1:12:54 PM | message detail

From: transients | #206
I'm totally spinning this result but look at the stats if you don't. Prime gets like 47% on Twilight Princess according to this. does anybody actually believe that?

Whether or not I think it's true, I'd really like to believe that.
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transients | Posted 12/21/2010 1:13:18 PM | message detail

really? I wouldn't. that also puts HL2 at like 46%. look at the result from last year between the two and tell me that could happen.
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xyzzy

Achromatic | Posted 12/21/2010 1:14:58 PM | message detail

you are r-

oh wait, prime was expected to get 43% on hl2 this year

four ways

year to year

stuff changes

I mean it might not be exactly 46%, but I bet it'd be fairly close.
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Sir Chris

ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/21/2010 1:15:32 PM | message detail

From: transients | #209
really? I wouldn't. that also puts HL2 at like 46%. look at the result from last year between the two and tell me that could happen.

I guess it could. TP being the only nintendo game there helps it. It would probably get 56-54 on Prime.
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transients | Posted 12/21/2010 1:15:38 PM | message detail

Leonhart would be the guy to ask, but based on these results I think these will be our top 10 games, assuming 51/49 wins by FFX and Brawl respectively:

1. Brawl
2. FFX
3. Melee
4. TP
5. Majora
6. Fallout 3
7. Prime
8. Half-Life 2
9. GSC
10. Wind Waker/RE4/KH2

that just seems way off.
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xyzzy

UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/21/2010 1:15:40 PM | message detail

I'd love Prime being that close to Zelda naturally.
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 12/21/2010 1:15:44 PM | message detail

Prime and Okami looking good in the stats makes this the best contest ever. Now, if only we could finish it all with an FFX win...
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
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transients | Posted 12/21/2010 1:16:21 PM | message detail

yeah, I'm fine with variation. I'm not fine with results that I see no chance of happening, happening.

I'm just saying that this result doesn't make sense stat-wise.
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xyzzy

HaRRicH | Posted 12/21/2010 1:16:27 PM | message detail

I haven't seen anyone mention FO:NV in this discussion. FO3 may still be riding a wave in this contest it's had since the beginning, making everything from Batman:AA down look weaker than they should be. It was a pretty big deal, and typing "GameFAQs" in my Google search-bar recommends I add "fallout new vegas" to it in its first suggestion ("fallout 3" is fourth). It's bringing in some voters. Weren't its vote totals high this contest anyway?

That's not something I want to count on so much though; I'm more torn between "SSBB looks terrible" and "the field levels out a LOT when you snub every game's two+ least favorite opponents."
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The Mana Sword | Posted 12/21/2010 1:16:31 PM | message detail

Those top 5 look about right to me!
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

Achromatic | Posted 12/21/2010 1:16:51 PM | message detail

From: transients | #212
Leonhart would be the guy to ask, but based on these results I think these will be our top 10 games, assuming 51/49 wins by FFX and Brawl respectively:

1. Brawl
2. FFX
3. Melee
4. TP
5. Majora
6. Fallout 3
7. Prime
8. Half-Life 2
9. GSC
10. Wind Waker/RE4/KH2

that just seems way off.

...does it?
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Sir Chris

Achromatic | Posted 12/21/2010 1:17:27 PM | message detail

From: transients | #215
yeah, I'm fine with variation. I'm not fine with results that I see no chance of happening, happening.

I'm just saying that this result doesn't make sense stat-wise.

but stats change year to year and format to format. I mean thats the point of xstats: a guide and a history lesson, not concrete.
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Sir Chris

transients | Posted 12/21/2010 1:18:21 PM | message detail

if you want to get really stat-crunchy, the 2004 contest kinda looks eerily accurate:

- Prime being worth 45% on Zelda;
- MGS2 being worth 43% on Melee;
- GTA being worth.. okay, let's not go that far
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xyzzy

AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/21/2010 1:19:02 PM | message detail

Jeez, Smash can't even build percentage with the day vote, this is sad.
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##Alec
Philly is the greatest city in the world. Go Flyers! Also WC is better than me.

UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/21/2010 1:20:39 PM | message detail

From: transients | #215
I'm just saying that this result doesn't make sense stat-wise.

The stats topic in a nutshell.
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/21/2010 1:21:00 PM | message detail

I'd take Majora's Mask over TP I think, even though I like TP more. I also think Melee is 2nd if Brawl is first. GSC could also be moved up nd down there, also RE4 Wind Waker and KHII shouldn't be on the list. RE4 is the tenth game.
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transients | Posted 12/21/2010 1:21:40 PM | message detail

again, I'm cool with things changing. I didn't take Mass Effect > Portal and FF12 out of being an x-stat drone. one game being way stronger or weaker is fine by me.

but Fallout 3 has not had the performances of a game that deserves 46% on Brawl. if you compiled a full set of stats, just about every game from division 1 and 2 would look eerily strong. Arkham Asylum would probably be projected to rock all the 2009 games in the bracket. I think one good idea is that Brawl has only really faced Nintendo competition. another is just that this match is fluky. we'll see in 36 hours.
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xyzzy

SuperAngelo128 | Posted 12/21/2010 1:22:16 PM | message detail

whether or not it 'deserves' (which is kinda dumb to say tbh) it still is right now
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~ Ange
no heroickrauss bullying topic i see. feels wrong, board viewing experience feels lesser

The Mana Sword | Posted 12/21/2010 1:22:49 PM | message detail

The answer is clear.

Brawl and Melee and Twilight Princess all suck and FFX is going to 60/40 Brawl.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/21/2010 1:23:21 PM | message detail

Tranny FO3 underestimation
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"You brought your *****, to the waffle hut?"

Achromatic | Posted 12/21/2010 1:23:22 PM | message detail

I disagree. Look at this contest, what does it tell you? RPGs get the job done, RPGs can look better than expected, etc. I think you are looking at trends wrong here. This is a very big, polarizing clash of fanbases. It is casual, north american heavy smash versus europe heavy, western rpg fallout. Things get messy.
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Sir Chris

Achromatic | Posted 12/21/2010 1:23:50 PM | message detail

I mean

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4193&region=EUR

bam, there you go, fallout is murdering in europe.
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Sir Chris

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/21/2010 1:24:56 PM | message detail

I agree that there's definitely some late-game weirdness going on here, but we might disagree about what lies ahead in two days. I think if Brawl can get anti-voted in the semis, it can also get anti-voted in the finals even if its opponent is Final Fantasy or other Nintendo. Perhaps this is a product of my hoping for a winner I'd love, but I still think there's a portion of the voters who don't want to give Brawl the contest.
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transients | Posted 12/21/2010 1:25:03 PM | message detail

it's Prime that gets me, not FO3. I thought FO3 would be stronger this year than it's shown prior to today. I just can't accept Prime and HL2 being stronger than RE4 or any MGS game.
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xyzzy

Achromatic | Posted 12/21/2010 1:26:07 PM | message detail

Nothing says that it is stronger than RE4 or MGS yet. You are assuming it so, keep that in mind Tranny.

Also I expected MP and HL2 to be very strong due to the format. When I think game of the decade metroid prime springs to mind.
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Sir Chris

KamikazePotato | Posted 12/21/2010 1:27:17 PM | message detail

F3 is definitely overperforming here, but...that doesn't change anything. We all know why it's overperforming. People don't want Brawl to win this.

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DFF.

transients | Posted 12/21/2010 1:28:32 PM | message detail

why would they change their minds two months into the contest though? damn you drones
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xyzzy

charmander6000 | Posted 12/21/2010 1:29:25 PM | message detail

If FFX 60/40s Brawl then I'll call this result legit and laugh at Melee, TP and KH/KH2.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 236/320 Today's Winner: Super Smash Bros. Brawl

KamikazePotato | Posted 12/21/2010 1:30:18 PM | message detail

From: transients | #234
why would they change their minds two months into the contest though? damn you drones

1. There's a big difference between voting for a game in round 1, round 2...and the finals. You can go "Brawl? Sure" in the beginning and then go "Wait, Brawl might actually win the whole thing? Screw that"
2. It beat Melee. However much charmander wants to say it's a vocal minority, that definitely pissed off some people.

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DFF.

transients | Posted 12/21/2010 1:30:30 PM | message detail

lol wii

(why do we say lol wii instead of lol brawl)
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xyzzy

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/21/2010 1:30:53 PM | message detail

If FFX 60/40s Brawl, I'll call it the biggest case of anti-voting ever.
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

transients | Posted 12/21/2010 1:31:47 PM | message detail

we're definitely not going to have a neat set of stats. that's a great thing - means we had a cool last week to the contest.
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xyzzy

KamikazePotato | Posted 12/21/2010 1:31:52 PM | message detail

I guess you could say it's the opposite of what Link did last contest. People were fine anti-voting Link against competition he would never lose to, but when he faced the big boys, he brought out the ZELDA hammer.

The possibility of Brawl being crowned Game of the Decade does not sit well with a lot of people.

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DFF.

transients | Posted 12/21/2010 1:33:20 PM | message detail

maybe. people love to hate FF7 a lot more than Brawl, though, and it never received this kind of backlash.
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xyzzy

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/21/2010 1:34:20 PM | message detail

I think Link was anti-voted against Cloud. Cloud really struggled in the two matches prior and Link shredded Sonic and Mario like tissues. I was thinking Link would go for 55+ there.
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!

KamikazePotato | Posted 12/21/2010 1:35:05 PM | message detail

You sure about that? I remember a lot of people saying that FF7 looked a lot more impressive than OoT going into the finals, and look what happened there.

Although I do think FF7 hate is overblown. It's just gotten weaker over time. Sephiroth hate, now there's some nice and potent.

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DFF.

TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/21/2010 1:35:33 PM | message detail

I guess they don't like Melee winning it all either.

gogogo FFX, make RE4 look better
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/21/2010 1:35:55 PM | message detail

2. It beat Melee. However much charmander wants to say it's a vocal minority, that definitely pissed off some people.

It is really. People who prefer Melee to Brawl aren't anti-Brawl, people who give Melee 10/10 and Brawl 2/10 are and they are a very vocal minority.

And you know what those anti-Brawl people probably wouldn't have voted for Brawl in the first place had this match been neutral.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 236/320 Today's Winner: Super Smash Bros. Brawl

transients | Posted 12/21/2010 1:36:25 PM | message detail

FF7 beat Ocarina of Time in 2004 and then destroyed Melee. that would be a good comparison to what's happening here if it is indeed anti-voting.
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xyzzy

charmander6000 | Posted 12/21/2010 1:36:34 PM | message detail

I can only imagine how weak TP is if it couldn't win with drones + anti-votes.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 236/320 Today's Winner: Super Smash Bros. Brawl

KamikazePotato | Posted 12/21/2010 1:36:48 PM | message detail

I have no idea how you can call it a vocal minority when Melee almost beat Brawl.

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DFF.

TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/21/2010 1:37:06 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #247
I can only imagine how weak TP is if it couldn't win with drones + anti-votes.

Anti-Nintendo votes have no effect with TP!
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No, every man's goal in life is to spread his seed as many times as possible. - A statement Realo actually believes

EvilNcr | Posted 12/21/2010 1:37:09 PM | message detail

Personally, I'd rather buy the theory that Melee is actually stronger than Brawl but can only lose to Brawl than believe in those sudden anti-voting or sudden over-performance theories.
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