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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 985

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 12/21/2010 4:36:49 AM | message detail
Yeah, I highly doubt Brawl only gets like 56% on Prime or 57% on Half-Life 2(and by extension, Twilight Princess gets even less)

Gotta be backlash or something
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/21/2010 4:38:34 AM | message detail
Or simply SFF that skewed the stats completely during Brawl > TP
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Draco1214 | Posted 12/21/2010 4:38:55 AM | message detail
MGS3 would take out fallout, let alone MM.

A game that barely scraped by Shadow of the Colossus during its best voting block wouldn't take anything (to say nothing of how the rest of the series did). It's pretty obvious that *checks* 46% on Brawl is much better than anything MGS has done this contest, by far.

The only argument to be made is Brawl has built up a large anti-voting base and is letting everything overperform on it. If this is directly transferable strength it'll be floored in the final, even if it does rise considerably during the day.

Or it could just be that Smash as a whole has gotten weaker and that FFX always had the power to beat it all along. It's not like Melee completely smashed FFX in their last encounter, and FFX managed that performance after underperforming on weak games (like in what happened in this contest).
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transience | Posted 12/21/2010 4:41:34 AM | message detail
man, stats are going to say that Prime > KH by a lot. I don't trust this match.
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Draco1214 | Posted 12/21/2010 4:43:14 AM | message detail
I'm not surprised for two reasons. First, it's possible Brawl SFF'd TP. Second, KH as a whole seems to have gotten a lot weaker (see: last contest).
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Lopen | Posted 12/21/2010 4:45:11 AM | message detail
Yeah Brawl/TP having SFF wouldn't surprise me

2008 GotY backs this result up so you should trust it!

In GotY poll we trust
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Draco1214 | Posted 12/21/2010 4:47:02 AM | message detail
I also forgot to mention that Metroid Prime's strength was definitely disguised in that KH match due to Paper Mario in the poll. We all seem to think Paper Mario has legit strength, so it's more than possible that it sapped Prime's strength substantially (and Metroid always sucks in SFF situations).
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__Smurf__ | Posted 12/21/2010 4:50:36 AM | message detail
To put it another way.

If you believe Fallout 3 > Majoras Mask. You believe a Batman game would beat every Metal Gear title released this decade.

This is either an illegitimate overperformance or a sign of severe brawl weakness. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for the latter.
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Lopen | Posted 12/21/2010 4:51:36 AM | message detail
Gonna need to see FFX vs Majora's Mask and FFX vs Brawl to claim that
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/21/2010 4:53:38 AM | message detail
Just saying. With anything between 53-54% vs MM, I'd take FFX over Brawl due to this semifinals. European vote would be brutal if it's 53% for Fallout 3.
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/21/2010 4:56:27 AM | message detail
But here from Europe we vote for what 10% for total votes?It is not like it is a big percentage...
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Lopen | Posted 12/21/2010 4:57:02 AM | message detail
Errr... never mind, I see where you're coming from there.

Could be that Zelda's just the more casual game and hence is able to score bigger blowouts than Fallout is.

Doesn't necessarily mean Fallout is weaker though.

Also not really convinced those Metal Gear games are that strong anyway. Struggling with SotC to me doesn't scream out strength. Batman was a 2009 GotY contender-- not to be underestimated!
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/21/2010 4:58:01 AM | message detail
Well, Europe+Asia would likely account for close to 22-25% so yes, it's significant in a close match.
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Draco1214 | Posted 12/21/2010 4:58:53 AM | message detail
There's no reason to believe this is an "illegitimate overperformance." Usually, games receive some sort of bandwagon after shocking the voters by unexpectedly beating a strong opponent (Charizard/Kratos and Bowser, Missingno/Crono and Yoshi). What did Fallout 3 face? A bunch of soft games. I guess one could say the voters could think the victory over Halo was unexpected, but if that was the case, then we should have seen an overperformance against Metroid Prime (not a pithy 52% victory).

This is definitely at least partially Brawl showing some weakness, in my mind.
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transience | Posted 12/21/2010 5:06:27 AM | message detail
SFF? Brawl won with like 52%.
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transience | Posted 12/21/2010 5:07:58 AM | message detail
also, Prime + Paper Mario is still less than what Kingdom Hearts got in that match.
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Draco1214 | Posted 12/21/2010 5:16:08 AM | message detail
The point still stands that KH is likely significantly weaker than we last saw it. Its characters bombed and KH2 had a really lackluster performance against BioShock.
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melikepizza | Posted 12/21/2010 6:08:59 AM | message detail
its just zelda backlash from beating tp, ffx will beat MM and zelda backlash will destory its chances and brawl will 60-40 it.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/21/2010 6:11:16 AM | message detail
Btw Ulti Melee may have won the US, but Brawl was coming back and could have won the region had the match lasted 24 hours.
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abdou | Posted 12/21/2010 6:11:51 AM | message detail
*wakes up, checks poll*

this is so deliciously awesome.

Brawl will still end around 57% if not higher with its godly day vote though..

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Lightning Strikes | Posted 12/21/2010 6:31:47 AM | message detail
FFX still needs to trump MM and convincingly to actually win though, let's face it. If Brawl could beat TP, it could beat MM by the same. I'm not sure if MM would beat Fallout 3(every 1 seed except MGS3 is really tightly packed together) so let's not call the contest yet.

Sorry MM, but it looks like Fallout 3 is the star 1 seed here.

Incidentally, we are all agreed about MGS3 being the weak link of the 1 seeds right?
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The Don Makaveli | Posted 12/21/2010 6:34:59 AM | message detail
That or prime.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/21/2010 6:39:07 AM | message detail
Unless you believe SotC > Galaxy then yes MGS3 is the weakest 1 seed.

And I personally...wait what do I know. Wind Waker would probably still beat Galaxy.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/21/2010 6:42:36 AM | message detail
Congrats to Super Smash Bros. Brawl, our guaranteed, nothing-can-stop-it-now contest champion. lol

Whether this result is "legit" or not (it isn't), it still spells trouble for Brawl in the finals, regardless of opponent.
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transience | Posted 12/21/2010 6:45:38 AM | message detail
yeah, I think this is up in the air between the three remaining games. Majora could beat FFX, FFX could beat Brawl, and Brawl should beat Majora but I don't know. I'm not 100% that TP is stronger than Majora at this point.

good contest
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xyzzy
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/21/2010 6:50:53 AM | message detail
Somehow I can't see Galaxy falling below 45% on Majora's Mask. It would probably happen though.

Also would we take Portal/BioShock > MGS4 now?

So...the stats currently have Prime getting 55% on KH2 and Galaxy losing to RE5 (I'm just ballparking here though)...why is that not believable at all?

What's funny is that Twilight Princess and both Smash games may have dropped since last contest, while Majora's Mask, Metroid Prime, and Mario Galaxy all probably boosted. Go figure, but so much for E3 2010 causing another site-wide Nintendo boost I guess.

Save us_Majora's Mask.

Hey would you look at that, Brawl's started gaining again.
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abdou | Posted 12/21/2010 6:57:11 AM | message detail
if there is backlash and Fallout is benefiting from it

then so could FFX

but what better game on this site than zelda that could benefit from backlash? I think MM can beat Brawl if it gets past FFX
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/21/2010 6:58:22 AM | message detail

From: transience | #125
I'm not 100% that TP is stronger than Majora at this point.


Doesn't have to be. I've argued for a while that voters are smarter than we give them credit; they'll flip if it makes for a fun result, especially in the final few days. I can see Majora being a bit weaker than TP and still winning the contest (assuming it's lucky enough to surpass FFX) because enough voters simply don't want to give a Wii game GotD on this site. That feeling of "oh wait, this is the console we're supposed to hate" may not hit them until the last match.

If Brawl loses in any fashion, though, you guys better get ready for a lot of annoying arguments about how Melee would have taken this contest easily. Hu-ha!
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The Don Makaveli | Posted 12/21/2010 6:59:49 AM | message detail
The above post is absurd.
FFX has a very small chance of losing to MM. SSBB and FFX have roughly equal chance of winning, and MM has even less chance of beating brawl than FFX
Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/21/2010 7:02:46 AM | message detail
I'd rather take this as a sign that gamers are developing good taste and are slowly realizing that Fallout 3 really is the deservedly Game of the Decade. They're just realizing it too slow to vote more for it.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/21/2010 7:03:23 AM | message detail
If anything, I think Majora may have a better shot of stopping the beast than FFX. Voters are pretty smart, but apparently not so smart as to realize that Final Fantasy hasn't won anything on this site in 5.5 years. You give them a Zelda in the final - an N64 Zelda that could be tough to SFF and should remind them of Our The Holiest OoT - and they might leave Brawl in great enough numbers to make the upset happen. Heck, maybe Majora could act as an OoT proxy in the finals. Even the tiniest hint of that will end this contest in a second.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 12/21/2010 7:08:10 AM | message detail
Once again, Fallout 3 isn't really doing anything surprising here, especially given the GotY 2008 poll. It's pretty consistent.

It does make MGS4 look pretty lol relatively speaking though.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/21/2010 7:09:29 AM | message detail
You guys are being wishful as hell in thinking MM could beat Brawl. Brawl already beat TP, so why would rSFF happen for MM?

I agree with whoever said MM will be lucky if it breaks RE4's percentage on FFX.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/21/2010 7:10:44 AM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #132
Once again, Fallout 3 isn't really doing anything surprising here, especially given the GotY 2008 poll. It's pretty consistent.

It does make MGS4 look pretty lol relatively speaking though.


MGS games in general have been pretty lol. SotC alone exposed the hell out of them, and MM just made things embarrassing for them.

At this point, Batman over the MGS games doesn't seem that outlandish. I mean, I'd probably take Batman over SotC.
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TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 12/21/2010 7:11:52 AM | message detail
Actually, Brawl's underperformance here pretty much confirms Majora's Mask as the winner.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/21/2010 7:12:06 AM | message detail

From: Lightning Strikes | #132
Once again, Fallout 3 isn't really doing anything surprising here


Of course it is (unless you expected significant Brawl anti-voting and late-contest wackiness). This makes Prime and Half-Life 2 look way too strong. I'm not going to run the stats, but it probably makes games like God of War and GTAIII pretty close to Kingdom Hearts as well. That would never happen. It also makes Fallout uneasily close to Twilight Princess after TP looked like a wrecking machine all contest. Never. Happen. Fallout 3 looked good, but it didn't display this type of strength.
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pjbasis | Posted 12/21/2010 7:13:59 AM | message detail
Brawl can't lose.

That would make RE5 the Ultimate Loser!
Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/21/2010 7:15:51 AM | message detail
Who's the Ultimate Loser for Brawl > FFX?
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/21/2010 7:16:43 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
695924 | Posted 12/21/2010 7:17:02 AM | message detail

From: Not_Wylvane | #138
Who's the Ultimate Loser for Brawl > FFX?


Everyone.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/21/2010 7:17:48 AM | message detail
Brawl > MM results in Baldur's Gate II. I still need to play that game someday.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/21/2010 7:18:47 AM | message detail
Possible Ultimate Losers:
Resident Evil 5 (Brawl loses in finals)
Eternal Darkness (FFX loses in finals)
Baldur's Gate II (Majora loses in finals)

RE5 is far and away the funniest option, especially since it could still end up looking decent in the stats. Yet another reason to slay Brawl!
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pjbasis | Posted 12/21/2010 7:18:50 AM | message detail

From: Not_Wylvane | #658
Who's the Ultimate Loser for Brawl > FFX?


Actually it's Eternal Darkness.
tgs2 | Posted 12/21/2010 7:18:58 AM | message detail

From: Not_Wylvane | #138
Who's the Ultimate Loser for Brawl > FFX?


Uhh Baldur's Gate?
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Jmast7 | Posted 12/21/2010 7:20:09 AM | message detail

From: pjbasis | #143
Actually it's Eternal Darkness.


:(

FFX absolutely has to win to prevent this travesty
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/21/2010 7:23:18 AM | message detail
Fallout 3 just hit its highest percentage of the match. I wonder if it can remain above 55%. Really, anything about 54% will still look great, and it's guaranteed to do that.
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Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 12/21/2010 7:23:46 AM | message detail
Ouf, Brawl fell hard here. Not sure what this means.
Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/21/2010 7:42:13 AM | message detail
I'd rather Fallout 3 keep cutting percentage for the rest of the match, until it cuts so much it goes past 50%.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/21/2010 7:43:15 AM | message detail
And is it just me, or wouldn't this be great votals for a night match?

I remember when everyone was thinking Fallout 3 was stinking it up when the votals for the first match were so low!
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/21/2010 8:12:06 AM | message detail
Man, Brawl had one hell of a night I see. Combine that with a diluted ASV and FO3 being a day match, and I can see FO3 staying above 45% pretty easily.

Which, if you think Brawl = FFX, that means FO3 > RE4 and MP/HL2 > Portal. Which is something I don't believe.
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