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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 984

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/20/2010 6:27:07 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #348
Yes. Here's hoping Jiggy55 is either a non-prize bracket or he has MGS3 today.


I'll seriously vote Brawl for you in the final, then.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 12/20/2010 6:40:13 PM | message detail
Haha, so we finally got Snake and Sonic...logos.
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Dr Football and Snake have won this round, but Sephiroth will rise again!
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/20/2010 6:42:01 PM | message detail
Snake and Sonic are on the far left of the 5th image and somewhere in the 4th image as well.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/20/2010 6:48:46 PM | message detail
Based on how this match has been going, it seems like there was no West Coast ASV, but the ASV in the rest of the US was only slightly diluted because of some schools getting off for Christmas break already.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/20/2010 6:58:21 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #350
Yes. Here's hoping Jiggy55 is either a non-prize bracket or he has MGS3 today.

He could have MM > FFX two days from now.


Eh, possible but I doubt it, since we've confirmed that he's a B8 lurker of sorts.
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creativename | Posted 12/20/2010 7:14:45 PM | message detail
That 5th pic is so badass I wish it was the only pic.

From: red sox 777 | #1659
Sorry, I'll try to stop. I don't have Chrono Trigger to root for this contest.......

......It may be really hard to avoid outbursts if MM beats FFX.


Eh, I was just busting on ya, drone out to your hearts content :)

If MM beats FFX though, I'd have to stop mocking all the "drone" whiners, because they'd be sadly right and the Zelda fanbase would be an embarrassment. Good thing that won't happen. FFX gets to lose to a party fighter instead.

...hmm, maybe it'd be better off losing to MM after all.

From: UltimaterializerX | #1660
As a gigantic Macbeth fan, the thought of Zelda as Lady Macbeth doing the "Out, wicked spot!" monologue makes me puke.


Out, damn'd Octoroc! Hyrule is murky. Yet who would have thought the old plumber to have had so much shroom in him?
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 12/20/2010 7:15:19 PM | message detail
*10 hours late*

holy skull kid!
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/20/2010 7:59:07 PM | message detail
MGS3 managed to pull off a cut earlier, which will likely be the only cut it gets in this match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/20/2010 8:14:04 PM | message detail
Match CXXV: (1) Fallout 3 vs. (2) Super Smash Bros. Brawl

Last Round

Fallout 3 – 51.94%
Metroid Prime – 48.06%

Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 52.75%
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess – 47.25%

Analysis

Welcome to the semi-finals where the final three matches will last the full 24 hours. While both opponents had close matches at the beginning against their opponents they were able to pull away. The only problem is that the games come from very different levels of strength. While our first 24 hour match is going to be quite boring I wouldn’t trade it for any other results. The craziness of the first two divisions was worth a boring semi-final match.

Brawl was able to go up against Fallout 3 in both the 2008 GotY poll and in last contest where Brawl put up two very different performances. While Brawl did stuck out like a sore thumb last contest when the game went up against Fallout 3 I feel that performance is closer to what Fallout 3’s true strength is, especially compare to what the game has done this contest. I’m not sure what kind of credit I would give New Vegas since it does look as if the game has stayed constant, but for all we know Fallout 3 could have been a lot weaker if New Vegas never came out.

It should be interesting on how the board vote will go in this match, on one side Fallout 3 has one of the worst board votes in the contest, but on the other some people are still mad that Brawl won over Melee. Then again like I said last round I don’t think those people would have voted Brawl in the first place and the reason why Twilight Princess won the board vote is because Zelda has one of the strongest board votes in contest history.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Brawl > Half-Life 2

charmander6000’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Brawl wins, 63.56% - 36.44%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 220/288 Today's Matches: FFX & Pokemon GSC
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 8:34:21 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #248
Yep. I love the DRONING cries around here, but I also love how these same people forget that a huge Zelda game lost yesterday. It becomes much easier to "accept" Majora's run if you simply acknowledge that its 2009 matches were junk, because they certainly seem to be.


Well, I think people are quick to discredit 4-ways because of stuff like Majora's Mask, but I think it's more accurate to say that we shouldn't have ever put any stock in any of those matches which had LFF/SFF, which we should've known better than to do in the first place.

Of course, the only problem with the last Games Contest is that it's nearly impossible to find a significant match that didn't contain any LFF/SFF, so yeah.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/20/2010 8:39:03 PM | message detail
Of course, the only problem with the last Games Contest is that it's nearly impossible to find a significant match that didn't contain any LFF/SFF, so yeah.

When about half the bracket (rough estimate, don't feel like looking into this) consists of Nintendo or Square games, it's hard to avoid LFF/SFF.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 8:42:19 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #361
Of course, the only problem with the last Games Contest is that it's nearly impossible to find a significant match that didn't contain any LFF/SFF, so yeah.

When about half the bracket (rough estimate, don't feel like looking into this) consists of Nintendo or Square games, it's hard to avoid LFF/SFF.


Well, we've done a decent enough job of it in this contest!

Whoo, 24 hour match coming up. Wonder how high the vote totals will get.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 8:43:43 PM | message detail
Also, not very much shifting in percentages today, despite it being Zelda vs. MGS. Perhaps there are more schools out than not, indicating we may not see any huge ASV swings or anything of the sort today, tomorrow, or Thursday. We'll see though.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/20/2010 8:44:53 PM | message detail
I'm sure at least one 24 hour match (probably the final) will break 100000 votes. FFX/Majora's Mask should break 100000 for sure, because both games are doing a great job at bringing in the votes.
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lightsout06 | Posted 12/20/2010 8:54:57 PM | message detail
This will be a boring Semi
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R.I.P Halo 2
creativename | Posted 12/20/2010 8:58:46 PM | message detail
The Oracle preds for Brawl are surprising me. Almost everybody is going high 50's and very few are over 60%? I thought over 60% would be expected here.

My initial thoughts on this match were that Brawl should get like 61+%. Fallout did break 60% on Halo (and should've still easily got 59% in a day match), so maybe Fallout is stronger than I thought. Since I'm rooting for Brawl to show weakness, I went under 59% with my pick, but I still think if Brawl doesn't break 60% that it's slightly vulnerable.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 8:59:39 PM | message detail
I just figured FO3 was pretty bad off after that showing against Prime.

Quick: Prime vs. Galaxy, who you got?
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Master Moltar | Posted 12/20/2010 9:00:12 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 25%

3
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 75%

9
TOTAL VOTES 12
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Moltar Status: 236 Points - Vote: RE4
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/20/2010 9:00:15 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 22.22%

2
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 77.78%

7
TOTAL VOTES 9

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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 9:00:23 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Fallout 3 35.85%

19
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 64.15%

34
TOTAL VOTES 53

BRAWLFAQS
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:00:26 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 37.93% 11
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 62.07% 18
TOTAL VOTES 29

Nothing special
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 236/320 Today's Winner: Super Smash Bros. Brawl
GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/20/2010 9:00:42 PM | message detail
oh, poor Fallout
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Oracle contest - 14th
Today's pick: Brawl - 57.38% Status:
vcharon | Posted 12/20/2010 9:00:51 PM | message detail
Contest over.
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:>
Janus5000 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:01:00 PM | message detail
uh

...Brawl's supposed to have a godlike board vote, right?
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SHINE GET 64 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:01:08 PM | message detail
Brawl for all
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 9:01:14 PM | message detail
There's your answer.

SUPER MARIO GALAXYYYYYYYYYY
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:01:19 PM | message detail
gotta love the terrible Fallout 3 board vote.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 236/320 Today's Winner: Super Smash Bros. Brawl
legendmusketeer | Posted 12/20/2010 9:01:36 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 32.87% 94
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 67.13% 192
TOTAL VOTES 286

Here is your contest winner.
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LM
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 9:01:44 PM | message detail
14.79% for Majora.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/20/2010 9:02:05 PM | message detail
Save_Us.FFX
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/20/2010 9:02:11 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #377
gotta love the terrible Fallout 3 board vote.


Problem is that Brawl has never been the king of the board vote. Let's hope it still pushes for 40+ at night.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/20/2010 9:02:38 PM | message detail
Hey, it's already looking better.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 9:02:48 PM | message detail
Well, that came back down awful fast.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:03:28 PM | message detail
Wow Fallout 3 may break 40% before the freeze.

lol Brawl
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 236/320 Today's Winner: Super Smash Bros. Brawl
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 9:03:46 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 over 40% now.

I wonder if FFX can avoid a bad board vote and Nintendo Power Hour against Brawl. That would increase its chances of winning quite a bit.
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IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/20/2010 9:04:19 PM | message detail
Next contest.

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gearofages | Posted 12/20/2010 9:04:22 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 is such a brilliant game. It is a shame it has to lose...to this.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/20/2010 9:04:25 PM | message detail
Just to ask, what would Brawl need to get here for Galaxy > Prime?
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695924 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:04:46 PM | message detail
So basically what we get from this is: lol FFX is so screwed. Right?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 9:05:15 PM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #388
Just to ask, what would Brawl need to get here for Galaxy > Prime?


62.91%
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/20/2010 9:05:39 PM | message detail
It's not like Brawl deserved to beat Melee in the first place. It won the most important regions, but unfortunately people from the rest of the world are allowed to vote. Melee was supposed to win this contest, or at least have a really cool rematch with FFX.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:06:15 PM | message detail
Decent start from Brawl. Could go a lot of different ways from here.

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abdou | Posted 12/20/2010 9:06:57 PM | message detail
Brawl winning the contest is the worst possible scenario for me

Melee, any Zelda, FFX and RE4 would all have been better. Damn..maybe FFX can still do it
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/20/2010 9:07:30 PM | message detail
Melee* won the most important regions, that is. America, as usual, has the best taste.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:08:01 PM | message detail
It's not like Brawl deserved to beat Melee in the first place. It won the most important regions, but unfortunately people from the rest of the world are allowed to vote. Melee was supposed to win this contest, or at least have a really cool rematch with FFX.

But it didn't because more people liked Brawl.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 236/320 Today's Winner: Super Smash Bros. Brawl
vcharon | Posted 12/20/2010 9:08:02 PM | message detail
I felt somewhat confident in FFX after TP put up a good fight with Brawl, but I think Zelda has really boosted (shocking to ever write that) and overperformed all contest long. I'm still not even confident FFX can beat TP's percentage.
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:>
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/20/2010 9:08:13 PM | message detail
If only for the fact that Melee is at least somewhat GotD worthy (as opposed to Brawl not being GotD worthy AT ALL), I have to agree with Ulti here. Instead...well I'm not one of those Melee >>>>>>>> Brawl people, but...

MELEE IS THE MORE SATISFYING, MORE FUN, AND MORE NOSTALGIC GAME. NO MORE DISCUSSION, PLEASE.
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Haste_2 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:08:29 PM | message detail
Okay, so if someone says SSBM is supposed to win this contest, then I declare that the winner was supposed to be a Phoenix Wright game!

I will go ahead and predict Brawl to fall in the next update, followed by gains (percentage-wise) through the rest of the power hour...

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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 12/20/2010 9:08:38 PM | message detail
Exact same percentage worldwide and in the US, that's odd.

Not a great start from Brawl in my opinion.
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Dr Football and Snake have won this round, but Sephiroth will rise again!
abdou | Posted 12/20/2010 9:10:33 PM | message detail
small drop

Fallout will probably finish over 40%
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