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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 984

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-Tofa7- | Posted 12/20/2010 9:32:38 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 12/21/2010 4:26:55 PM | #442
Out of curiosity, for anyone he keeps track of this stuff (TRE, I'm looking at you), a friend of mine is 18th right now, with 4 people ahead of him taking FFX. If he gets 14th, what are the chances there's 6+ brackets ahead of him that aren't prize brackets?


Like I just said, i don't have a prize bracket, so your friends odds are looking slightly better.


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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/20/2010 9:32:44 PM | message detail
Out of curiosity, for anyone he keeps track of this stuff (TRE, I'm looking at you), a friend of mine is 18th right now, with 4 people ahead of him taking FFX. If he gets 14th, what are the chances there's 6+ brackets ahead of him that aren't prize brackets?

No idea. You would have to ask the people on the leaderboard. In past contests it seems 8th place is usually around 12th or 13th place so your friend is likely on the borderline.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:33:31 PM | message detail
Let's try mapping Crono/Vincent trends onto this match.......if Brawl keeps up that falling for a few more updates, it may end the power hour with a similar percentage to what Crono had in 2007!

1:00 | 56.5%
2:00 | 54.5%
3:00 | 52%
4:00 | 51%
5:00 | 43%
6:00 | 41%
7:00 | 43%
8:00 | 44%
9:00 | 47%

For the curious, that would let Fallout 3 tie up the match right in time for the morning vote to strike and lift Brawl to an easy victory. Crono/Vincent 2007 trends are of course very exaggerated trends, and FO3 won't be tying up the match, but I think FO3 is likely to hit 46%, and possibly 47%. Feel good about it winning hours tonight.
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legendmusketeer | Posted 12/20/2010 9:34:09 PM | message detail
I'm on the leader board now. o_O
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Draco1214 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:34:13 PM | message detail
I can't believe after submitting such a garbage bracket with some really stupid mistakes I may still make the leaderboard if I predict FFX > Brawl correctly. Revenge for missing a prize due to Sephiroth/Snake last time!
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The Mana Sword | Posted 12/20/2010 9:34:19 PM | message detail
Yessss. The return of "If we compare this match to Crono/Vincent".
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Achromatic | Posted 12/20/2010 9:34:33 PM | message detail
All you need to know about this match

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4193&region=EUR
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/20/2010 9:36:20 PM | message detail
Europe showing some outstanding taste tonight. Hopefully they cost Brawl the entire contest.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/20/2010 9:36:44 PM | message detail
Oh my god are we seriously starting to think FFX has a chance?
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xp1337 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:38:22 PM | message detail
Crono/Vincent might be a Top 10 Match of All Time for me, in spite of the result, just because I love the trend comparisons so much.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/20/2010 9:38:29 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #459
Oh my god are we seriously starting to think FFX has a chance?


FFX and Majora both. Brawl isn't Link; there is definitely potential for fireworks in the finals.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 9:40:50 PM | message detail
30 minute upper half stats:

Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 50.00%
Super Smash Bros. Melee – 48.92%
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess – 47.25%
Fallout 3 – 42.37%
Metroid Prime – 40.73%
Kingdom Hearts II – 40.54%
Half-Life 2 – 40.13%
Kingdom Hearts – 38.57%
God of War – 36.62%
Super Mario Galaxy – 35.65%
Tales of Symphonia – 35.56%
BioShock – 35.46%
Grand Theft Auto III – 35.18%
Batman: Arkham Asylum – 34.91%
Okami – 34.08%
Resident Evil 5 – 34.01%
Halo: Combat Evolved – 33.39%
Uncharted 2: Among Thieves – 30.93%
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare – 29.98%
Mega Man 9 – 29.78%
Dragon Age: Origins – 29.42%
Halo 2 – 29.34%
Devil May Cry 3: Dante’s Awakening – 28.83%
Halo 3 – 28.77%
Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald – 28.60%
Street Fighter IV – 28.43%
Team Fortress 2 – 28.27%
Fable – 28.25%
Grand Theft Auto IV – 28.15%
Sonic Adventure 2 – 28.00%
Demon’s Souls – 28.00%
The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind – 27.99%
Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos – 27.74%
Super Mario Sunshine – 27.31%
Pokemon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum – 27.10%
LittleBigPlanet – 26.75%
Perfect Dark – 26.72%
Legend of Dragoon – 26.35%
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 2 – 26.00%
Left 4 Dead – 25.43%
Metroid Fusion – 24.37%
Ninja Gaiden – 23.74%
Valkyria Chronicles – 23.56%
Dissidia: Final Fantasy – 22.56%
Disgaea: Hour of Darkness – 22.42%
The Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time – 22.23%
Star Wars: Battlefront II – 22.05%
Deus Ex – 21.80%
Star Ocean: Till the End of Time – 21.72%
Rock Band 2 – 21.47%
Left 4 Dead 2 – 20.48%
Mother 3 – 20.26%
Shenmue – 19.49%
No More Heroes – 19.48%
Conker’s Bad Fur Day – 19.27%
Psychonauts – 19.20%
Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance – 19.08%
F-Zero GX – 18.12%
Beyond Good & Evil – 17.97%
Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow – 17.82%
Mario Kart DS – 16.74%
inFamous – 16.10%
Guitar Hero II – 12.56%
WWF No Mercy – 10.79%
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LOLContests | Posted 12/20/2010 9:41:10 PM | message detail
24 hours > all.

Matches become completely interchangeable and unmemorable in a 12 hour format, and there's barely any comebacks. You basically have to rely on matches being wire to wire the whole time for a close match to be good. If there's a boring meaningless match in 24 hours, that's the bracket's fault, not the format. It shouldn't be hard to create a 64 entrant bracket where almost every match tells us or does something interesting.
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Draco1214 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:41:21 PM | message detail
Oh my god are we seriously starting to think FFX has a chance?

Can Fallout 3/Metroid Prime/Half-Life 2 beat Resident Evil 4?

If your answer to that is no, FFX has a very real shot.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 9:41:38 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #459
are we seriously starting to think FFX has a chance?


Unless you think FO3 smokes RE4, then yes.
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WhiteLens | Posted 12/20/2010 9:42:02 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #442
Out of curiosity, for anyone he keeps track of this stuff (TRE, I'm looking at you), a friend of mine is 18th right now, with 4 people ahead of him taking FFX. If he gets 14th, what are the chances there's 6+ brackets ahead of him that aren't prize brackets?


The current rank 9 is one of my alt accounts, so that one isn't getting a prize. Which kinda sucks, but it's only 1 game.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:42:06 PM | message detail
Taking MM to win the contest in the battle bracket (which means very little, as I have very few points at risk, and think I'm guaranteed a final spot somewhere in the 40s no matter what I do).
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/20/2010 9:43:44 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #463
24 hours > all.

Matches become completely interchangeable and unmemorable in a 12 hour format, and there's barely any comebacks. You basically have to rely on matches being wire to wire the whole time for a close match to be good. If there's a boring meaningless match in 24 hours, that's the bracket's fault, not the format. It shouldn't be hard to create a 64 entrant bracket where almost every match tells us or does something interesting.


Yesmar proving yet again why he doesn't deserve contests.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/20/2010 9:44:22 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #462
Half-Life 2 – 40.13%
Kingdom Hearts – 38.57%


I can live with this.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/20/2010 9:48:09 PM | message detail
There is no better video game company out there right now than Square-Enix - Denzokuken

Please tell me this was in jest.
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creativename | Posted 12/20/2010 9:48:41 PM | message detail
*checks poll*

What. Haha! FFX to obliterate Super Smash Bros. Lawl confirmed. Pfft won't even be competitive >_>
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creativename | Posted 12/20/2010 9:50:52 PM | message detail
Also Brawl with the joke trends.

...wait, why am I even bothering to comment on this, as if a joke game having joke trends is surprising.

FFX vs. Brawl will be a repeat of Sephiroth vs. Missingno <_<
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/20/2010 9:51:27 PM | message detail
XFD you guys.

Haven't we done this before? This very same dance?

This very same "fool ourselves into stupidity"?

I'm not buying it. Brawl will clean FFX's clock.
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:52:49 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #473
XFD you guys.

Haven't we done this before? This very same dance?

This very same "fool ourselves into stupidity"?

I'm not buying it. Brawl will clean FFX's clock.


Extha curse.

Bet the bank on FFX.
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creativename | Posted 12/20/2010 9:56:06 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #1951
It's not like Brawl deserved to beat Melee in the first place. It won the most important regions, but unfortunately people from the rest of the world are allowed to vote.


Brawl is Un-American.

Brawl is Communist.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=298Cw3_qGwE

No wonder Fallout is clowning it.
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Draco1214 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:57:50 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 currently has 50.68% in Europe. If a day-oriented game is doing this to Brawl overnight, I can't even imagine how brutal that FFX Euro-vote will be.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:58:11 PM | message detail
Brawl is all about taking from the skilled and giving to the unskilled. It's designed to level the playing field, to make people more equal regardless of how talented they are at Smash and how much effort they put into the game. That's exactly what Communism is!
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
Haste_2 | Posted 12/20/2010 9:59:39 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts – 38.57%
Metroid Prime – 40.73%


Ah, geez... no way KH loses to Prime! Sonic Adventure 2 beats Perfect Dark, even! I like how Mother 3 is expected to get over 20% on Brawl. ;)

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/20/2010 10:00:17 PM | message detail
Communism is the very DEFINITION.... of FAILURE.

I need to play Fallout 3 for that guy alone.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/20/2010 10:01:28 PM | message detail
DEMOCRACY IS NON-NEGOTIABLE

Liberty Prime, 2nd best character in the game.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 10:02:41 PM | message detail
Nearly 43% for FO3 at the end of the Power Hour.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/20/2010 10:05:28 PM | message detail
57% on RE4 is better than 57% on FO3...

23 hours for Brawl to start looking good!
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/20/2010 10:06:12 PM | message detail
Well, this match isn't going to break 100000 votes based on the vote totals at the end of the first hour. I'd say about 90000 is what we might end up finishing at.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/20/2010 10:06:41 PM | message detail
The 2008 GOTY poll is looking very accurate tonight.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
red sox 777 | Posted 12/20/2010 10:08:39 PM | message detail
As far as votals go, Fallout 3 has always sucked at it.....really, really, badly. So badly that my votal-stats tried to tell me Fallout 3 was bottom of the barrel fodder in the 2009 contest (95% of the games the v-stats called low fodder actually were fodder).
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/20/2010 10:08:51 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3364

MGS4...what the f*** happened
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/20/2010 10:11:07 PM | message detail
Maybe MGS4 is still that strong, and MM is about to cruise to victory!
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
Janus5000 | Posted 12/20/2010 10:11:44 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 Power Hour OVAH

wait what
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/20/2010 10:12:13 PM | message detail
SotC, super beast
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XxSoulxX | Posted 12/20/2010 10:16:34 PM | message detail
The MGS high this site was on back then has faded.
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creativename | Posted 12/20/2010 10:25:03 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #2353
XFD you guys.

Haven't we done this before? This very same dance?

This very same "fool ourselves into stupidity"?

I'm not buying it. Brawl will clean FFX's clock.


Is this a reverse jinx attempt or something?

Because Brawl might stall or smidgen up slightly for an hour or two, but in a couple hours Fallout is going to start tearing into it. Brawl will recover during the day but FO3 should end up no worse than 42%, and probably will end up around where it is now.

Which means if you think Brawl=FFX, you basically think RE4 would only 52/48ish HL2 and Metroid Prime.

I still consider Brawl as a significant favorite, just because I have a hard time seeing a Final Fantasy game winning at this site...but man, this is not an impressive performance at all. If Brawl was only getting 59% on HL2 Brawl backers might be panicking.
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MudkipMaster30 | Posted 12/20/2010 10:31:25 PM | message detail
Dang, would be in fifth on the leaderboard if Melee were in Brawl's spot. :(
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/20/2010 10:33:10 PM | message detail
Wow, Fallout is going 50/50 in Europe, Asia, and Oceania. Gonna be an ugly overnight.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/20/2010 10:33:38 PM | message detail
Thing is, if you hold RE4 and KH2 constant to their last year's selves, then FO3 does seem to be right on RE4's level. It's probably more likely that...maybe ALL of the "big gun" games in this contest are weaker, and stuff like HL2 and Prime boosted?

Lol my theories.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/20/2010 10:34:29 PM | message detail
It's not a reverse jinx as much as it is me refusing to be naive enough to believe a Final Fantasy game will win a contest on this website. GameFAQs has proven time and time again they won't let that happen.
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HaRRicH | Posted 12/20/2010 10:38:42 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #495
It's not a reverse jinx as much as it is me refusing to be naive enough to believe a Final Fantasy game will win a contest on this website. GameFAQs has proven time and time again they won't let that happen.


2004 and 2005 disagree, not to mention FF's characters have won contests in 2003 and 2005 too. It's been awhile, but it's hardly unprecedented.
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vcharon | Posted 12/20/2010 10:39:25 PM | message detail
Seymour comin'. FFX comin'.
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creativename | Posted 12/20/2010 10:42:13 PM | message detail
Augh when will people stop talking about 4-way stats from 2009 as if they're worth a s***. Let's just ignore the fact that these same piece of crap stats have FO3 getting almost doubled here and act if anything else from then has meaning outside of comedy value.

I mean I know this is LMS and all, but I see credible posters talking in the same way he just did and it confuses me. This contest is almost over and people have learned nothing.

From: ExThaNemesis | #2455
It's not a reverse jinx as much as it is me refusing to be naive enough to believe a Final Fantasy game will win a contest on this website. GameFAQs has proven time and time again they won't let that happen.


I agree with you, that's really the only clear reason Brawl has to be favored though. If not for the "man I just can't picture FF winning on GameFAQs" thing, this match would appear to be pretty much a toss-up.

As is, like you said, I just can't picture FFX winning.

Maybe if Teedus is completely excluded from the match pics and we get Auron overload...
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Anagram | Posted 12/20/2010 10:42:27 PM | message detail
Play Earthbound
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Anagram | Posted 12/20/2010 10:42:34 PM | message detail
Play Earthbound
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