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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 984

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/19/2010 10:33:44 PM | message detail
So does this actually make FFX the favorite?



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~*Character Contest Histories*~
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~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

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~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/19/2010 10:35:46 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy X was always the favorite.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/19/2010 10:49:37 PM | message detail
It puts it about level with Brawl indirectly. Suppose it finishes with 56%. Brawl extrapolates through TP to 59.5% on KHII, but it would likely have a done a % worse in a 24 hour match on TP, so call it 58.5%. RE4 > KHII, so any KHII drop at all puts FFX close. I certainly don't see Brawl running away with the final 53-47 or more, if it faces FFX.

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red sox 777 | Posted 12/19/2010 10:49:42 PM | message detail
Revised victory odds:

SSBB 3:5
FFX 4:1
MM 6:1
FO3 40:1
MGS3 70:1
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/19/2010 10:51:17 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #002
Final Fantasy X was always the favorite.


From: LeonhartFour | #445
I recognize FFX is the underdog


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No, every man's goal in life is to spread his seed as many times as possible. - A statement Realo actually believes
Big Bob | Posted 12/19/2010 11:16:08 PM | message detail
Sadly, I think RE4 is just weaker than we all wanted it to be.

MM > MGS3
Brawl > Fallout 3
FFX > MM
Brawl > FFX

I'd be shocked if anything other than this happened.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/19/2010 11:24:47 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #002
Final Fantasy X was always the favorite.


I love you.
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
~*~TEAM RK-VOLTCH'D~*~
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/20/2010 1:27:22 AM | message detail
Play EarthBound.
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11/15/2009 - Never forget 4th and 2.
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 1:28:44 AM | message detail
Am I not allowed a little bravado and fanboyism for my favorite game?!

(Plus, Bacon already admitted he was rigging the bracket in his favor, so I'm good to go whoo-hoo)

(MGS3 > MM book it)

(Angry Moon no match for CQC)
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Janus5000 | Posted 12/20/2010 1:31:39 AM | message detail
Euro vote kicking in. These >60% updates from FFX are pretty boss.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 1:33:41 AM | message detail
In Europe we trust
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/20/2010 1:34:11 AM | message detail
The main development team that would work on a Kingdom Hearts game is busy making Versus XIII. Every major player who would make KH3 has their hands tied up there, which won't release until, at best, late 2011 in Japan.

Good lord, is this a joke? This spinoff was unveiled in 2006. This. Spinoff. At this rate, I won't be playing Kingdom Hearts III until I'm 30, and that will be just sad for all parties involved.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/20/2010 1:35:34 AM | message detail
Euro vote kicking in. These >60% updates from FFX are pretty boss.

I don't think that's the Euro vote kicking in. It's a combination of both Asia and Oceania producing these big updates.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 1:36:06 AM | message detail
But it's a spinoff that could likely be superior to the original!
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ZFS | Posted 12/20/2010 1:39:22 AM | message detail
Whoa there, Versus XIII isn't a spinoff, or at least it isn't being treated as a spinoff. There's more big name talent working on that one than worked on FFXIII, and it's getting the same attention from Square that FFXIII did. Honestly, it should be called FFXV instead of FFVersusXIII.

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ZFS | Posted 12/20/2010 1:40:20 AM | message detail
but hey FABULA NOVA CRYSTALLIS

What a disaster of an idea.

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There are no foreign lands. It is the traveler only who is foreign.
Achromatic | Posted 12/20/2010 1:41:17 AM | message detail

From: ZFS | #015
Whoa there, Versus XIII isn't a spinoff, or at least it isn't being treated as a spinoff. There's more big name talent working on that one than worked on FFXIII, and it's getting the same attention from Square that FFXIII did. Honestly, it should be called FFXV instead of FFVersusXIII.


it should be called FFXIV and FFXIV shouldnt exist.
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Sir Chris
ZFS | Posted 12/20/2010 1:43:12 AM | message detail
Sounds like a good idea to em.

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There are no foreign lands. It is the traveler only who is foreign.
creativename | Posted 12/20/2010 1:51:02 AM | message detail
So does this actually make FFX the favorite?

It is everyone's favorite game of course. But will lose due to blatant stuffing. Smash has the combined power of Mario cheaters and Link drones pulling shenanigans for it. Nobody actually likes Brawl!


There's little chance a PSP remake wouldn't see good profits, and equally as great sales

Not true. A PS3+360 remake would almost certainly get more sales - and on top of that you're overlooking that console games cost twice as much initially (and when they drop in price, they don't go down to $10-$13, which is a joke and what many moderately aged PSP games cost). The revenue potential for console games is simply much greater and not comparable. You are hanging too much on the cost aspect and ignoring the revenue aspect.

The main development team that would work on a Kingdom Hearts game is busy making Versus XIII. Every major player who would make KH3 has their hands tied up there, which won't release until, at best, late 2011 in Japan.

All the more reason that this Versus XIII stuff just seems like a bad idea, business-wise. (although, as said, I think it'll probably have better WOM than XIII - but because of the somewhat "side game" type label it won't get the same sales as XIII)

Whoa there, Versus XIII isn't a spinoff, or at least it isn't being treated as a spinoff. There's more big name talent working on that one than worked on FFXIII, and it's getting the same attention from Square that FFXIII did. Honestly, it should be called FFXV instead of FFVersusXIII.

I agree with the latter part, it should be called XV (or, as Chris said, XIV...or better yet XIII as XI shouldn't have been XI! which means we come full circle, Versus XIII=the real XIII, perhaps the title is just Square's mea culpa!). It would have better sales as XV than as Versus XIII though, so yes, calling it a "spinoff" or whatever is accurate because that's what it will be received as by the consumers.

also probably too busy porting Chrono Trigger to mobile phones

HM, you are truly a fiend for even thinking of this. What a sick mind.

Perhaps we should be reporting you to the feds rather than Albion.
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Save_Us.Teedus
ZFS | Posted 12/20/2010 1:55:32 AM | message detail
http://www.square-enix.co.jp/mobile/sem/chronotrigger/

You thought I was kidding!

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There are no foreign lands. It is the traveler only who is foreign.
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 1:57:05 AM | message detail

From: ZFS | #020
http://www.square-enix.co.jp/mobile/sem/chronotrigger/

You thought I was kidding!


*spit take*
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/20/2010 2:02:53 AM | message detail
Where's the guy that has that Denzokuken quote about Square-Enix being the best company in gaming for his sig.

It feels applicable here.

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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
~*~TEAM RK-VOLTCH'D~*~
creativename | Posted 12/20/2010 2:24:33 AM | message detail

From: ZFS | #060
http://www.square-enix.co.jp/mobile/sem/chronotrigger/

You thought I was kidding!


There...are...no...words...

The horror...

red sox, you have plenty left to live for, don't do it!
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Save_Us.Teedus
transience | Posted 12/20/2010 2:36:46 AM | message detail
CT got nothin' on FF4

time to buy my 7th copy
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xyzzy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/20/2010 2:42:11 AM | message detail
FFX is seriously your favorite game and not FF8?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 2:43:37 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #025
FFX is seriously your favorite game and not FF8?


This isn't news. I've openly said this for years now.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/20/2010 2:46:57 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #025
FFX is seriously your favorite game and not FF8?


yeah FFX and FF8 are his top two games, he is lacking in the whole "taste" area.
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
~*~TEAM RK-VOLTCH'D~*~
vcharon | Posted 12/20/2010 2:48:33 AM | message detail
More like he has awesome taste.
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:>
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/20/2010 2:48:36 AM | message detail
FFX is a great game, nothing wrong with liking it the best. It's Adam's (Lucid Faia if you prefer) favorite as well, I think.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/20/2010 2:54:53 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #029
FFX is a great game, nothing wrong with liking it the best. It's Adam's (Lucid Faia if you prefer) favorite as well, I think.


Adam is an OSU fan so his taste isn't exactly great either!!!

(I'm p. sure he prefers Brawl to Melee as well!)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 2:59:37 AM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #027
yeah FFX and FF8 are his top two games, he is lacking in the whole "taste" area.


LOL Both of those games rocked FFIX

Eat it
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 3:00:38 AM | message detail
(In contest polls, I mean)

(Well, they're better than FFIX, yeah, but I love FFIX, too)

FFX > FFVIII > MGS3 > SUPER MARIO GALAXYYYYYYYYYY 1 & 2 > Everything
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transcience | Posted 12/20/2010 3:07:20 AM | message detail
one day I'm going to get you to make a top 25 game list. sure, it'll be 15 RPGs, 7 platformers and 3 mgs games, but I still wanna see it.
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iphonesience
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2010 3:13:47 AM | message detail

From: transcience | #033
one day I'm going to get you to make a top 25 game list. sure, it'll be 15 RPGs, 7 platformers and 3 mgs games, but I still wanna see it.


I'm not even sure I know what my top 25 games are...!
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/20/2010 4:18:41 AM | message detail
It is funny how FF X does mediocre against weak games but does good against a game that some people had it winning the contest.And only 10% for Brawl?I thought it was the favorite...
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695924 | Posted 12/20/2010 4:28:31 AM | message detail
Lets not kid ourselves here. No Square game will win a game contest here ever again.
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lol opinions
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/20/2010 4:32:50 AM | message detail
It would be nice though.Imagine the rage from all Nintendo fans!But yeah it will not going to happen.
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/20/2010 4:54:14 AM | message detail

From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | #035
It is funny how FF X does mediocre against weak games but does good against a game that some people had it winning the contest.And only 10% for Brawl?I thought it was the favorite...


First, FFX was doing fine. And 2nd, it can't do like Melee/Brawl because it has some anti-voting base, unlike those games.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 12/20/2010 5:08:16 AM | message detail
I think people are kind of forgetting how badly TP rocked RE4 in 2009! I know, lol 4ways, but when it gets as direct as that you know you can trust it. FFX looking impressive, I think, is more due to people overhyping RE4 when it wasn't really THAT strong to begin with.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/20/2010 5:45:04 AM | message detail
Twilight Princess > FFX is still possible, though perhaps only barely. Even then I wouldn't expect TP to be doing much worse here.

This also helps Galaxy's chances of being this site's #3 current-gen game. I'm sure someone here cares about that, even if it may not necessarily be me.
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Currently Playing - Zelda: Majora's Mask, Smash Bros. Melee
Next Games Up - Resident Evil 4, Okami, StarCraft
The n00b Avenger | Posted 12/20/2010 5:53:48 AM | message detail
Eh. TP looked like it might be a slight favorite over FFX and now they look about equal. Not that big a deal
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Iamthekuzalol | Posted 12/20/2010 5:59:35 AM | message detail
RE4 could only score 55% on Portal, the same Portal that didn't really impress much against Mass Effect.

TP/FFX should be a very good match, even MM looks like it could give FFX a good run for its money.(MM won't win but breaking 48% isn't impossible)
red sox 777 | Posted 12/20/2010 6:09:30 AM | message detail
Not to worry. Any possible CT boost is welcome to me. I won't be buying CT for mobile phone, but if it can gain CT 1 extra voter in our contests, that'll be a good thing. I'm not too worried about a mobile phone game causing a drop or anything.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
__Smurf__ | Posted 12/20/2010 7:05:35 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Advokaiser | Posted 12/20/2010 7:41:10 AM | message detail
*votes*

*looks at poll*

Ha! I knew San Andreas would break 55% on Vice City easily. It would probably break 60% as well...

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charmander6000 | Posted 12/20/2010 7:53:20 AM | message detail
Ha! I knew San Andreas would break 55% on Vice City easily. It would probably break 60% as well...

Right now it's 53.50%

Comparing GTA3 to VC/SA by making Brawl/FFX equal...

For SA > GTA3 Brawl needs 61.68% on Fallout 3
For VC > GTA3 Brawl needs 64.37% on Fallout 3
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 220/288 Today's Matches: FFX & Pokemon GSC
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/20/2010 7:57:13 AM | message detail
And it looks like Brawl will have to break 65.35% on Fallout 3 in order to...well it's not like I care so much for Galaxy being this site's #3 7th gen game, okay? It would be incredibly ironic for this site's top 3 current-gen games (well at least of last decade!) to be on a hated system, though.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/20/2010 7:58:14 AM | message detail
Match CXXIV: (1) Metal Gear Solid 3 vs. (1) The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask

Last Round

Metal Gear Solid 3 – 50.62%
Shadow of the Colossus – 49.38%

The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask – 56.79%
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker – 43.21%

Analysis

It’s been a long time since I’ve had a match where my bracket doesn’t have at least one of the competitors in the match. Metal Gear Solid 3 was able to use the night vote to seal the win over Shadow of the Colossus. Fun fact both North America and Europe sided with Shadow of the Colossus yet it still lost; a first for this contest. Majora’s Mask proved that it was at least the fourth strongest Zelda game by defeating Wind Waker.

I could just point out that Metal Gear Solid 3 barely did better against Paper Mario than what Majora’s Mask did against Wind Waker. Even if you want to call SFF, Majora’s Mask outranks Paper Mario out of the Nintendo 64 titles plus Metal Gear Solid 3 had a night match while this will be happening in the day.

We also still don’t have much of an idea of how much weaker the Metal Gear Solid series has become in this contest and with it being a day match I expect quite the Majora’s Mask over performance. An over performance that may make people feel that the game will be able to reach the finals without too much trouble. Personally I wouldn’t be surprised if Majora’s Mask went and broke 60% on Metal Gear Solid 3.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Pokemon GSC > Metal Gear Solid 4

charmander6000’s Prediction: LoZ: Majora’s Mask wins, 59.18% - 40.82%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 220/288 Today's Matches: FFX & Pokemon GSC
creativename | Posted 12/20/2010 8:03:10 AM | message detail
I hope those people with the illusions that a night match was in FFX's favor are now finally grasping they were wrong. Since the sun rose, FFX has risen almost half a point or stalled. Which are the exact trends people should've expected.

In a full match it would finish higher than now. It is very probable a day match would be better for FFX, and no way it could really be worse. RE4 is like MP, the Power Hour is it's beat time. This match is like Samus/Cloud, like some of us were attempting go explain to the people hung up on the geolocation. Only difference is that both those characters probably have better day votes than both these games.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/20/2010 8:05:31 AM | message detail
Yep, I was wrong. This is one of the most impressive performances of the contest.
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