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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 983

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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/19/2010 9:12:18 PM | message detail
Well...uh...Golden Sun is legit!

Oh screw it, BAD MATCH BAD CONTEST

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DFF.
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ZFS | Posted 12/19/2010 9:12:39 PM | message detail
Hell, RE4 is a Nintendo game.

whoa there

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/19/2010 9:12:44 PM | message detail
For the record, my oracle:

Match #123 - Final Fantasy X - 54.24%

This isn't THAT impressive. You people were just really overrating RE4 for whatever reason.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/19/2010 9:12:51 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #289
I thought the RE4 would have stronger.


Oh ho ho the backpedaling starts now

NAH THIS IS JUST RE4 BEING WEAKER THAN WE THOUGHT

NO CREDIT TO FFX
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/19/2010 9:12:51 PM | message detail
Solid performance by FFX. Still not convinced it'll beat Brawl, but it should do damn well and I'm pretty sure now that there's no doubt it'll beat MGS3/MM.
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Not_Wylvane is a wonderful user.
Mr3790 | Posted 12/19/2010 9:13:04 PM | message detail
Fun for the minute it lead...

Now it's just MMvsGSC all over again.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 12/19/2010 9:13:08 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #291
'barf'


That. This is awful.

Not entirely unexpected, still not quite Golden Sun/San Andreas territory, but still, awful.
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/19/2010 9:13:09 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
250----1------------0.00
249----0------------0.00
248----1------------100.00
247----1------------100.00
246----0------------0.00
245----2------------100.00
244----0------------0.00
243----0------------0.00
242----2------------100.00
241----2------------100.00
240----2------------100.00
239----0------------0.00
238----2------------100.00
237----1------------100.00
236----3------------33.33
235----4------------50.00
234----3------------33.33
233----6------------50.00
232----8------------75.00
231----5------------80.00
230----11----------63.64
229----11----------36.36
228----7------------42.86
227----11----------45.45
226----21----------76.19
225----21----------57.14
224----21----------42.86
223----31----------48.39
222----31----------41.94
221----91----------83.52
220----48----------31.25
219----40----------60.00
218----35----------57.14
217----33----------42.42
216----49----------53.06
215----42----------45.24
214----35----------31.43
213----50----------44.00
212----46----------30.43
211----50----------30.00
210----43----------27.91
209----48----------39.58
208----41----------29.27
207----60----------23.33
206----92----------15.22
205----63----------31.75
204----53----------28.30
203----68----------17.65
202----56----------16.07
201----58----------22.41
200----58----------24.14
199----66----------22.73
198----67----------22.39
197----70----------20.00
196----83----------20.48
195----88----------19.32
194----76----------19.74
193----84----------15.48
192----69----------23.19
191----88----------27.27
190----84----------20.24
189----99----------26.26
188----103--------19.42
187----106--------17.92
186----117--------27.35
185----110--------17.27
184----97----------12.37
183----121--------19.01
182----127--------19.69
181----123--------10.57
180----127--------15.75
179----135--------14.07
178----135--------18.52
177----134--------11.94
176----141--------16.31
175----127--------14.17
174----153--------16.99
173----173--------21.39
172----154--------12.34
171----145--------14.48
170----140--------14.29
169----182--------13.74
168----163--------10.43
167----155--------11.61
166----153--------14.38
165----164--------14.02
164----191--------16.23
163----178--------17.42
162----201--------14.93
161----179--------20.67
160----183--------14.21
159----221--------12.67
158----191--------19.90
157----187--------14.97
156----210--------10.48
155----208--------13.94
154----218--------10.55
153----206--------15.05
152----229--------13.97
151----253--------16.21
150----224--------16.96
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/19/2010 9:13:12 PM | message detail
149----250--------12.80
148----239--------7.95
147----252--------11.90
146----257--------12.84
145----232--------13.79
144----266--------10.90
143----284--------12.68
142----268--------8.21
141----243--------10.70
140----285--------11.58
139----263--------15.21
138----257--------10.12
137----282--------12.41
136----276--------11.96
135----276--------11.23
134----281--------10.68
133----255--------10.59
132----301--------12.96
131----281--------9.96
130----278--------14.75
129----320--------10.00
128----318--------13.21
127----314--------8.92
126----325--------10.15
125----330--------8.48
124----340--------10.88
123----313--------9.90
122----319--------13.17
121----318--------11.64
120----360--------8.06
119----376--------10.90
118----348--------9.20
117----369--------8.67
116----359--------8.36
115----372--------8.06
114----353--------8.50
113----316--------10.76
112----358--------6.70
111----357--------6.72
110----315--------8.25
109----350--------9.43
108----328--------9.76
107----306--------7.19
106----297--------8.42
105----349--------6.30
104----330--------6.06
103----339--------5.90
102----315--------7.30
101----305--------5.25
100----312--------8.65
99------320--------8.13
98------331--------4.23
97------296--------7.09
96------293--------4.78
95------271--------7.01
94------285--------2.81
93------276--------3.62
92------276--------5.80
91------287--------4.88
90------269--------3.72
89------251--------3.19
88------229--------5.68
87------217--------5.99
86------248--------3.63
85------179--------4.47
84------191--------2.62
83------187--------2.67
82------207--------3.86
81------210--------1.90
80------203--------0.99
79------155--------3.23
78------146--------2.74
77------145--------0.69
76------131--------2.29
75------133--------2.26
74------132--------1.52
73------111--------0.90
72------112--------0.00
71------97----------2.06
70------102--------0.98
69------97----------1.03
68------84----------2.38

66------85----------1.18
65------64----------1.56

61------33----------3.03
60------32----------3.13

54------27----------3.70

43------4------------25.00

37------4------------25.00


Max Score: 272
Omitted scores got it wrong.

The top tiers did quite well. 65 out of the top 104 managed to get this right. Overall only a little under 11% got the match right. The higher tiers do float around the 50s before fading away.

15 people fell off the top 50. AlannaWebb, Jman_gamerX8, figg123, oilerfan, SunnyX, Animako, BJMBB, Agumen, aphorism, elbuoc, Furious_Fura, Enohp, BigTuna87, stealthracer68 and syntaxerror7 did not have SSBB winning.

1 person got it wrong and survived. Former first place SomeGamerDude did not have SSBB winning and falls to 17th place.
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That is the key.
You have found the answer._
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/19/2010 9:13:28 PM | message detail
My bad. Bad subtraction. The 9s lined up confused me. I thought the lead was around 100, not 190.
abdou | Posted 12/19/2010 9:13:44 PM | message detail
RE4 was originally released on the GC and it did get ported to the Wii

it does have some Nintendo fans behind it.
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...
Janus5000 | Posted 12/19/2010 9:13:52 PM | message detail
I just want to see how much higher FFX can go. I'm thinking over 56% isn't unreasonable.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/19/2010 9:13:58 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #303
For the record, my oracle:

Match #123 - Final Fantasy X - 54.24%

This isn't THAT impressive. You people were just really overrating RE4 for whatever reason.


You realize it's probably still going to go up quite a bit, right?

Well, there's a chance it won't, but still.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/19/2010 9:14:09 PM | message detail
*gets home*

*votes*

WHOAAAAA

Of course, I'd prefer RE4 to have this dominant percentage, but hell, this is making me mad happy because FFX might actually have a legit shot at taking this thing.

CRUSH BRAWL, TEEDUS. DO IT FOR MELEE.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/19/2010 9:14:13 PM | message detail
TRE, is there any way to know what game Jiggy55 had coming out of the bottom division?
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 12/19/2010 9:14:26 PM | message detail
Plants vs. Zombies - 0 HP
Portal - 0 HP
Left 4 Dead 2 - 0 HP
Pokemon G/S/C - 0 HP
New Super Mario Bros. Wii - 0 HP
Resident Evil 4 - 1 HP, PARALYZED

Tough luck for me, I guess. :(

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Resident Evil 4 > Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Don't kid yourself. It's happening!
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/19/2010 9:14:47 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #314
CRUSH BRAWL, TEEDUS. DO IT FOR MELEE.


Welcome aboard, my friend!
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/19/2010 9:15:02 PM | message detail
Updated Top 5

Top 10 Smallest Night Vote Gaps
1. Metal Gear Solid 3 – 19586 vs. Shadow of the Colossus – 19107 (R4) – 479
2. Dead Rising – 18334 vs. The World Ends With You – 17680 (R1) – 654
3. Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 22684 vs. Super Smash Bros. Melee – 21729 (R4) – 955
4. God of War – 20659 vs. Tales of Symphonia – 19489 (R2) – 1170
5. Valkyria Chronicles – 16384 vs. Disgaea – 14876 (R1) – 1508
6. Persona 3 – 17585 vs. Civilization IV – 16009 (R1) – 1576
7. Skies of Arcadia – 17782 vs. Baldur’s Gate II – 16155 (R1) – 1627
8. Fallout 3 – 22077 vs. Metroid Prime – 20425 (R5) – 1652
9. Tales of Symphonia – 20805 vs. Resident Evil 5 – 19077 (R1) – 1728
10. Halo 3 – 22476 vs. Super Mario Sunshine – 20315 (R1) – 2161

Top 10 Most Popular Night Polls
1. Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs. Super Smash Bros. Melee (R4) – 44413
2. LoZ: Majora’s Mask vs. Chrono Cross (R2) – 44125
3. Final Fantasy X vs. Borderlands (R2) – 43926
4. Kingdom Hearts II vs. Bioshock (R2) – 43262
5. Star Wars: KotOR vs. Devil May Cry (R1) – 43163
6. Halo 3 vs. Super Mario Sunshine (R1) – 42791
7. Final Fantasy X vs. Final Fantasy IX (R4) – 42669
8. Fallout 3 vs. Metroid Prime (R5) – 42502
9. Final Fantasy X vs. Viewtiful Joe (R1) – 42049
10. Final Fantasy X vs. Golden Sun (R3) – 41851

Top 10 Most Popular Day Polls
1. LoZ: Twilight Princess vs. Kingdom Hearts II (R4) – 62905
2. Kingdom Hearts vs. CoD: Modern Warfare 2 (R2) – 62381
3. Team Fortress 2 vs. Fable (R1) – 61749
4. LoZ: Twilight Princess vs. Shenmue (R1) – 59254
5. Pokemon RSE vs. Grand Theft Auto IV (R1) – 59134
6. Kingdom Hearts II vs. Halo 2 (R1) – 58733
7. LoZ: Wind Waker vs. Oblivion (R3) – 58079
8. Golden Sun vs. GTA: San Andreas (R2) – 57594
9. Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs. LoZ: Twilight Princess (R5) – 57555
10. Kingdom Hearts vs. Castlevania: DoS (R1) – 57172

Top 10 Most Impressive Night Losers
1. Super Smash Bros. Melee (R4) – 21729
2. Metroid Prime (R5) – 20425
3. Super Mario Sunshine (R1) – 20315
4. Tales of Symphonia (R2) – 19489
5. Shadow of the Colossus (R4) – 19107
6. Resident Evil 5 (R1) – 19077
7. Bioshock (R2) – 18918
8. Pokemon GSC (R3) – 18418
9. Diablo II (R2) – 18212
10. Demon’s Souls (R1) – 18134

Top 10 Most Impressive Day Losers
1. Fable (R1) – 30856
2. Grand Theft Auto IV (R1) – 29113
3. Half-Life 2 (R4) – 28121
4. LoZ: Twilight Princess (R5) – 27192
5. Kingdom Hearts II (R4) – 26984
6. Metal Gear Solid 2 (R2) – 26930
7. GTA: San Andreas (R2) – 26674
8. Sonic Adventure 2 (R1) – 26673
9. Metal Gear Solid 4 (R3) – 26560
10. Star Wars: KotOR (R3) – 25849

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict
1. Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs. LoZ: Twilight Princess (R5) – 10.96%

2. Kingdom Hearts II vs. Kingdom Hearts (R3) – 11.70%
3. Metal Gear Solid 3 vs. Shadow of the Colossus (R4) – 13.13%
4. Paper Mario vs. World of Warcraft (R2) – 13.73%
5. Shadow of the Colossus vs. Metal Gear Solid 4 (R3) – 15.19%
6. Golden Sun vs. GTA: San Andreas (R2) – 16.05%
7. LoZ: Twilight Princess vs. Kingdom Hearts II (R4) – 17.67%
8. Fallout 3 vs. Metroid Prime (R5) – 19.13%
9. Metroid Prime vs. Half-Life 2 (R4) – 20.90%
10. Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs. Super Smash Bros. Melee (R4) – 23.72%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 220/288 Today's Matches: FFX & Pokemon GSC
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/19/2010 9:15:04 PM | message detail
You know what is really vomit-worthy?

FFX will crush RE4 like this, and STILL manage to choke on a 55-45 at the hands of Brawl.

Gotta admit that FFX would've been good money against Pokemon though.
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~*~TEAM RK-VOLTCH'D~*~
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/19/2010 9:15:16 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #313
You realize it's probably still going to go up quite a bit, right?

Well, there's a chance it won't, but still.


Eh, this is RE we're talking about, it should do well with the night vote. This should stay under 55% by all rights.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/19/2010 9:15:26 PM | message detail
Well at least RE4 gained percent there.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 220/288 Today's Matches: FFX & Pokemon GSC
Achromatic | Posted 12/19/2010 9:15:44 PM | message detail
RE4 finally gains some sort of resistence here, I was starting to feel bad.
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Sir Chris
vcharon | Posted 12/19/2010 9:15:51 PM | message detail
The tears of FF haters make this match even more fun.
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:>
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/19/2010 9:16:12 PM | message detail
Alright, green herb in-effect.
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Around here, I'm the father, the son, and the Holy ****ing Spirit all rolled into one - Red Crow
red sox 777 | Posted 12/19/2010 9:16:16 PM | message detail
FFX > Brawl would be acceptable, if FFX gets to face OOT in the bonus match to expose it for the fraud it is. (FFVII wouldn't work because people would just claim SFF)
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
paerarru | Posted 12/19/2010 9:16:18 PM | message detail
Good man. I like the way you think.

^5! Don't wanna count victory -this- early, but I think it's safe to say we're halfway there! :)
red sox 777 | Posted 12/19/2010 9:17:18 PM | message detail
FFX's going to end up over 56% pretty easily though, I think. I'd say 57% is likely right now, maybe 58%.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
EvilNcr | Posted 12/19/2010 9:17:30 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #320
Eh, this is RE we're talking about, it should do well with the night vote. This should stay under 55% by all rights.


Probably not. The Europe vote is well over 60%. RE4 is bound to bleed during the night with that kind of voting performance.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/19/2010 9:17:32 PM | message detail
Oh ho ho the backpedaling starts now

My post got cut off, I was trying to say that I thought RE4 would have a stronger board vote.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 220/288 Today's Matches: FFX & Pokemon GSC
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/19/2010 9:17:35 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #325
FFX > Brawl would be acceptable, if FFX gets to face OOT in the bonus match to expose it for the fraud it is.


Beating Brawl would prove it's legit!
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/19/2010 9:18:13 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #327
FFX's going to end up over 56% pretty easily though, I think. I'd say 57% is likely right now, maybe 58%.


FFX gets 58%, its winning the f***ing contest
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"if only there were some way I could have sex" - Smartmuffin
XIII_rocks | Posted 12/19/2010 9:18:39 PM | message detail
Alright I'm just going to stop following this now. It's just too terrible to endure.

f*** off FFX and take your entire series with you.
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http://i48.tinypic.com/1045474.gif
red sox 777 | Posted 12/19/2010 9:19:34 PM | message detail
Not to me! It would prove Brawl is a fraud. (excellent!) And Melee too, but I've thought Melee was a fraud too, just haven't promoted the idea actively since Brawl is a much better target.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
charmander6000 | Posted 12/19/2010 9:20:16 PM | message detail
FFX gets 58%, its winning the f***ing contest

More like this is the RE4 that we saw in round 3 instead of round 2, just take a look at the performance of MGS3 and KH2.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 220/288 Today's Matches: FFX & Pokemon GSC
SnoicFactor | Posted 12/19/2010 9:20:32 PM | message detail
jeez how bad will this get in dead hours?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/19/2010 9:20:45 PM | message detail
Yes, FFX, that's it.

NO MERCY
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"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"
charmander6000 | Posted 12/19/2010 9:21:38 PM | message detail
At least we have San Andreas > Vice City

Like it should be.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 220/288 Today's Matches: FFX & Pokemon GSC
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/19/2010 9:21:57 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #334
FFX gets 58%, its winning the f***ing contest

More like this is the RE4 that we saw in round 3 instead of round 2, just take a look at the performance of MGS3 and KH2.


Obviously that was PS2 SFF, just like this match right now!

Just wait until RE4 takes on some non-Nintendo/PS2 game, its gonna own it!
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I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
paerarru | Posted 12/19/2010 9:22:09 PM | message detail
CRUSH BRAWL, TEEDUS. DO IT FOR MELEE.

lol. If FF is the beneficiary of some Nintendo rift, so be it! :D
red sox 777 | Posted 12/19/2010 9:22:13 PM | message detail
In retrospect I think I forgot that MGS4 beat Brawl in the poll where RE4 put up 45% on Brawl. So Brawl/RE4 should really be more like a 60/40 match. Sorry for backpedaling though- I admit that I was projecting RE4 much more optimistically earlier.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
hellfire104 | Posted 12/19/2010 9:22:17 PM | message detail
Wow is FFX uber strong this time around or is RE4 just really weak?
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Point Total: 76/84. Guru Status: Alive(36)
My Bracket Says: Night: MM Day: MC
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/19/2010 9:22:54 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #336
Yes, FFX, that's it.

NO MERCY


Please do enjoy this while you can.

Because you won't be so pleased when Brawl is molesting it.
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
~*~TEAM RK-VOLTCH'D~*~
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/19/2010 9:23:52 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #342
Please do enjoy this while you can.

Because you won't be so pleased when Brawl is molesting it.


Keep telling yourself that, darling.
---
"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/19/2010 9:24:04 PM | message detail
Considering how badly the Melee hardcore hate Brawl, FFX may actually get a great board vote in the finals. If it just rides the anti-Brawl wave during the Power Hour, it can pile on the goods during the Eurovote and brace for the day vote.

AND!

We'll be only two days removed from Christmas. The casual vote may be diminished, meaning the hardcore FF faithful and fanatical Melee worshipers can more realistically seize the day.

oh man I dodged 200 lightnings for this moment
---
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Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world!
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/19/2010 9:24:18 PM | message detail
Does BT have Majora in the final or Brawl > FFX?
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
~*~TEAM RK-VOLTCH'D~*~
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/19/2010 9:24:47 PM | message detail
ExTha, rooting for Brawl?

I must inform the Smashboards of your turncoat tendencies.
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I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
Janus5000 | Posted 12/19/2010 9:25:11 PM | message detail
Eh, honestly I don't think there's much to worry about upset-wise until FFX beats TP's performance against KHII, given that KHII >= RE4 and Brawl >= TP (with those ='s being a best case for FFX).

...That said, who knows how bad tonight gets. Or how good. Not sure.
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Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/19/2010 9:25:48 PM | message detail
Not to mention, we're right around the 9 year anniversary of FFX!

NOSTALGIA BOOST

HERE WE GOOOOOOOO
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Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX!
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/19/2010 9:25:49 PM | message detail
TRE, is there any way to know what game Jiggy55 had coming out of the bottom division?

Jiggy55 had a perfect Round 4 so he has MGS3 vs MM as his last Round 5 match. It's impossible to know which he picked without asking him.
---
That is the key.
You have found the answer._
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/19/2010 9:25:59 PM | message detail
I'm not rooting for Brawl at all, it's a bit of Alec reverse-jinxing, and a bit of realism.

I remember what happened the last few times we thought the big Final Fantasy title would take out the big Nintendo title in the finals.

I remember it in the Series contest. I remember it last Games contest. I remember it in every character battle since 2004.

Leon would also do well to remember it.
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
~*~TEAM RK-VOLTCH'D~*~