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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 982

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Denzokuken | Posted 12/19/2010 1:31:23 AM | message detail
alright chums Europe is awake, now let's kick some Prime ass.
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/19/2010 1:33:27 AM | message detail
Since Fallout 3 started raking the European vote, this match is pretty much over. There's around 4-5 hours left of it so it's bad luck for MP I guess.
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AxemPink | Posted 12/19/2010 1:34:59 AM | message detail
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AxemPink | Posted 12/19/2010 1:35:38 AM | message detail
I don't trust Metroid Prime to have normal Nintendo trends and it's losing in the U.S. anyways, so I'd say it's chances of coming back in the morning are pretty bad even with the 200-something lead that Fallout 3 has right now, and it's only going to get worse, so...
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/19/2010 1:55:16 AM | message detail
Metroid/Samus was never known for having a good ASV like other Nintendo games or characters. It could be considered average at best. Metroid Prime lost the ASV to Half-Life 2.
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creativename | Posted 12/19/2010 2:01:18 AM | message detail
Agree/Disagree: Twilight Princess takes the ASV over Brawl?

Could go either way, both have strong ASVs, I'd lean towards Zelda slightly. TP lost it a bit decisively to KH2, but, that's of course the legendary Kingdom Hearts ASV, and it wasn't that bad. TP only lost a percent or so.

From: AxemPink | #706
...Well, Mario vs. Samus never ends well for Samus even if Samus is probably stronger indirectly, so I'd take Galaxy there.


She's not. Hasn't been since 2K5. Mario 2K5 was a completely different entity than the piece of crap Mario that let Shadow break 45% and had some other mediocre performances. People over-simplify and way too strongly assume that Mario beats Samus pre-2K5 - the site shifted dramatically that year. The Mario>Samus pickers largely just got lucky, because "Mario franchise will boost!!" was never their reasoning.

We've seen SFF situations completely reverse before (Aeris/Sora for instance; also the Cloud-Sephiroth SFF dynamics have changed heavily, including Sephiroth going from the stronger character, to the weaker one who can resist all SFF, and then finally can't resist SFF anymore and starts getting wasted by it). I'm not sure why so many people blindly assume Mario/Samus dynamics of post-2K5 represent how things would have gone in the previous contests. I'm far from concinved of it.

From: vcharon | #710
How close does Metroid need to keep this to have a shot at coming back in the morning? I can tell the regulars in this topic don't believe this is even a match despite being closer than expected, but still.


I could see Fallout rising or stalling with the morning vote. Metroid's Power Hour is its strongest time and it was going 50/50 there, I'd be kinda surprised if it made noise with the morning other than many %age cuts.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/19/2010 3:03:13 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #136
I wonder if this is the longest we've ever gone without the lead hitting triple digits. TF2/Fable did in the first two hours.


I remember Alucard/Sora went a long time without one. Let me check real quick.

Yeah, it took 3 hours, 20 minutes to get a triple digit lead there, so this one went a little longer. Not sure if there's another potential record holder out there, but that was the first match that came to mind.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/19/2010 3:05:07 AM | message detail
FO3 has averaged about 54.75% these last two hours. I doubt Prime can manage a swing of that magnitude with the morning vote, although the morning vote brings in more votes overall, so who knows.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/19/2010 3:05:27 AM | message detail
Agree/Disagree: Twilight Princess takes the ASV over Brawl?

The ASV won't really be noticeable today because of a weekend match. So we might not even know which game even gets the ASV here.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/19/2010 3:09:08 AM | message detail
And down Prime goes. It was a fun ride, I suppose.

And whatever I'll shut up about HL2 > Prime in a 24-hour match now.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/19/2010 3:11:03 AM | message detail
Oh yeah just to ask something; would we pick Portal over MGS4 now? Portal over Galaxy still? Portal over the HL2/MP/FO3 trio?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/19/2010 3:16:34 AM | message detail
Midpoint first quarter stats:

Fallout 3 – 50.00%
Metroid Prime – 48.80%
Half-Life 2 – 48.08%
God of War – 43.88%
Tales of Symphonia – 42.60%
Grand Theft Auto III – 42.15%
Batman: Arkham Asylum – 41.20%
Okami – 40.84%
Resident Evil 5 – 40.75%
Halo: Combat Evolved – 39.40%
Uncharted 2: Among Thieves – 36.50%
Mega Man 9 – 35.68%
Devil May Cry 3: Dante’s Awakening – 34.54%
Halo 3 – 33.95%
Street Fighter IV – 33.55%
Demon’s Souls – 33.55%
Team Fortress 2 – 33.36%
Fable – 33.34%
Sonic Adventure 2 – 33.04%
Super Mario Sunshine – 32.23%
LittleBigPlanet – 32.05%
The Legend of Dragoon – 31.09%
Left 4 Dead – 30.47%
Ninja Gaiden – 28.01%
Star Ocean: Till the End of Time – 26.02%
Deus Ex – 25.73%
Rock Band 2 – 25.34%
Left 4 Dead 2 – 24.55%
Mother 3 – 24.27%
No More Heroes – 23.35%
Psychonauts – 22.66%
inFamous – 19.00%

Prime's division looks overrated compared to FO3's, in my opinion. Maybe FO3's division was just crappier than we thought. Well, Halo's underperformance against FO3 last round probably underrates things a bit, too.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/19/2010 3:20:27 AM | message detail
Although FO3's gaining percentage at a solid rate right now, so maybe things will balance out in the end.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 12/19/2010 3:20:31 AM | message detail
Geez, Fallout3 averaged nearly 55% for the 5-6 hour and looks like the 6-7 hour might even beat that
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/19/2010 3:22:21 AM | message detail
I would like to see some stats where GTAIII is held constant to where it currently is and Halo gets the same percent on GTAIII as it did last year.
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abdou | Posted 12/19/2010 3:23:49 AM | message detail
TP>Brawl

how likely is it?
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/19/2010 4:15:58 AM | message detail
Man Nintendofaqs!This match is really that close?What can anyone says...
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/19/2010 4:35:23 AM | message detail
Also G/S/C seems to be legit since according to stats it would beat WW.Not bad.
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 12/19/2010 4:41:03 AM | message detail
Okami > Halo

Now that would have been a great result that I doubt many would have taken.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 12/19/2010 4:48:03 AM | message detail
Although, Okami would only squeak by in a night match and probably lose a day match comfortably
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/19/2010 5:28:50 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure Brawl has the ASV in that match,
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/19/2010 5:38:40 AM | message detail
Fallout 3 really gains.It is a night match there eh?I wonder does it better because we here in Europe like it very much?
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transcience | Posted 12/19/2010 5:46:06 AM | message detail
Batman is the outlier for me.
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Denzokuken | Posted 12/19/2010 5:48:49 AM | message detail
Hmm actually Metroid is doing far better in Europe than I expected, 53%. I always thought it was awful in Europe due to its atrocious night vote. It looks like only the UK and Asia really wanted it out.
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/19/2010 6:26:17 AM | message detail
UK is probably a big Fallout 3 fanbase. Fallout 3 did beat out Brawl and MGS4 as GotY 2008 in the UK, after all.

A shame they were the only country to get the GotY correct!
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Advokaiser | Posted 12/19/2010 6:29:01 AM | message detail
What a Fallout 3 underperformance. I expected around 55% here.

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Hide_The_Butter | Posted 12/19/2010 6:46:59 AM | message detail
Ouch, I went to sleep and Metroid was within 15 votes of FallOut.
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/19/2010 6:48:07 AM | message detail

From: Advokaiser | #176
What a Fallout 3 underperformance. I expected around 55% here.


I dunno. I kinda felt like Prime had a chance here. I didn't think Halo or Batman could beat Okami handily at all.
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/19/2010 7:10:59 AM | message detail
MGS2/SotC took 4.5 hours for a 100 vote lead to develop.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/19/2010 7:21:39 AM | message detail
It's amazing sometimes how the UK has completely different trends than the rest of the continent. Perfect example is Brawl/Melee
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Denzokuken | Posted 12/19/2010 7:24:22 AM | message detail
lol, seems like island mentality even affects gamefaqs voting trends.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 12/19/2010 7:32:08 AM | message detail
Agree/Disagree: Twilight Princess takes the ASV over Brawl?

No ASV, but the day vote should definitely favor Brawl. If TP manages to win this, it'll definitely deserve it.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3505&type=2&seconds=60&max=0
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/19/2010 7:34:51 AM | message detail
Well, TP and Brawl faced each other last year, so let's see what the trend chart says, eh?

Time | LOZ: TP | RE4 | SSBB | MGS4 | Demographic
EBV | 23.41% | 23.55% | 27.99% | 25.05% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 22.86% | 21.81% | 26.78% | 28.55% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 22.90% | 23.23% | 24.71% | 29.16% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 23.65% | 23.05% | 25.23% | 28.07% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 24.19% | 22.53% | 26.89% | 26.39% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 23.63% | 21.40% | 29.26% | 25.71% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 22.56% | 20.16% | 28.91% | 28.37% | (22:00-24:00)

Looks like Advantage: Brawl to me.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/19/2010 8:03:58 AM | message detail
Match CXXII: (2) Super Smash Bros. Brawl vs. (4) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess

Last Round

Super Smash Bros. Melee – 48.92%
Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 51.08%

The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess – 57.10%
Kingdom Hearts II – 42.90%

Analysis

The fight between which Smash game is liked more is over and as hard as the Melee fans tried at the beginning Brawl was able to recover and take the lead at night and then used the morning vote to explode its lead pretty much leading everyone to believe that it would have won a day match as well. Twilight Princess won by more than it did last year against Kingdom Hearts II making some people hyped about this match.

The two games faced each other last contest and Brawl was able to win without too much trouble. Twilight Princess was able to perform a lot better against Kingdom Hearts II, but with Sora and crew not performing that well in the last character battle I wouldn’t be surprised if the game took a drop in strength. We also have to remember that while Kingdom Hearts II looked pretty good against Twilight Princess, in the next round Resident Evil 4 did take a random drop against Twilight Princess to roughly what Kingdom Hearts II got last round. Either way I feel that last round said more about Kingdom Hearts II than it did about Twilight Princess.

With Brawl winning over Melee a few people argued that Brawl could suffer from a backlash from Melee fans. I think that if you felt that Melee was that much better than Brawl and that you were that mad that Brawl won to anti-vote it the rest of the contest you probably weren’t going to vote for it in the first place had this been a neutral match. Really outside of the loud minority people didn’t care which game won.

I know that stats topic has been pretty high on Zelda games, but they too have their limit. The games are strong because the series is the most popular on GameFAQs. I don’t see Twilight Princess turning the result around from last contest and like last contest I don’t see Brawl SFF Twilight Princess in the match.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Brawl > LoZ: Twilight Princess

charmander6000’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Brawl wins, 53.05% - 46.95%

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GotD Bracket: 204/256 Today's Matches: HL2 & SSBB
IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/19/2010 8:06:53 AM | message detail
So we're all voting RE4 tonight right?

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Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/19/2010 8:07:29 AM | message detail
Who has a better chance? TP over Brawl or MM over FFX in the 24 hour semi match?

Obviously it's assuming MM beats MGS3...which i think it will. MGs3 has no shot at FFX.

I'd say MM.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 12/19/2010 8:08:00 AM | message detail
No, about 46% of us will be voting for RE4 tonight.

Of course I'm in that 46%
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Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/19/2010 8:10:06 AM | message detail

From: IngmarBirdman | #185
So we're all voting RE4 tonight right?


Lets hope so. FFX can go burn in hell. But unfortunately Europe and asias horrible taste will make sure FFX wins easily. I have no doubt it will be close in NA.
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HaRRicH | Posted 12/19/2010 8:26:08 AM | message detail

From: Assassin_Thane | #186
Who has a better chance? TP over Brawl or MM over FFX in the 24 hour semi match?


LoZ:MM > FFX, just because we've seen SSBB beat LoZ:TP twice (BGE2 and GotD-poll) while LoZ:MM is more of a wildcard.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/19/2010 8:56:58 AM | message detail
The RE4 board vote is going to be epic.
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GotD Bracket: 204/256 Today's Matches: HL2 & SSBB
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/19/2010 8:58:00 AM | message detail
Man. Hard to believe this was ever close.

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red sox 777 | Posted 12/19/2010 8:58:52 AM | message detail
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/19/2010 8:59:19 AM | message detail
Let's go Link! Save us from the evil of Brawl!
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Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/19/2010 8:59:31 AM | message detail
MM winning would be effin awesome. At this point now that prime is out..it's my fav game left. RE4 unfortunately will go out tomorrow.
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abdou | Posted 12/19/2010 8:59:51 AM | message detail
hard to believe I am rooting for zelda ;0
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/19/2010 9:00:17 AM | message detail
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 57.14%

4
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 42.86%

3
TOTAL VOTES 7

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paulg235 | Posted 12/19/2010 9:00:18 AM | message detail
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 53.85%

7
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 46.15%

6
TOTAL VOTES 13
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Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/19/2010 9:00:19 AM | message detail
good thing Prime avoided a heavy defeat. always knew Fallout 3 wasn't much stronger than HL2/Prime.
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tgs2 | Posted 12/19/2010 9:00:27 AM | message detail
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 46.67%

14
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 53.33%

16
TOTAL VOTES 30
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/19/2010 9:00:39 AM | message detail
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 75% 3
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 25% 1
TOTAL VOTES 4

Where's the anti-SSBB vote or is it too early?
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GotD Bracket: 204/256 Today's Matches: HL2 & SSBB