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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 977

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kinsho3 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:26:07 PM | message detail
So, given that this will likely end in a tie....

Fallout 3 vs. Halo vs. Metroid Prime/Half-Life 2.

Who do you have?
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 12/14/2010 9:26:27 PM | message detail
Updated list of the contest's biggest turkeys:

1) SBAllen
2) Metal Gear Solid 4
3) Pokemon G/S/C
4) Final Fantasy XII
5) GTA: San Andreas

:P

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This contest, man.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 9:26:33 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #197
Not really, in fact I hadn't even played CT yet during that match. I regrettably voted for Mario actually.......

It's just a plain fact that Crono won that match fair and square. He won the first 24 hours, he won the last 24 hours, he won the 24 hours between midnight and midnight, and he won the 24 hours between 11:50 and 11:50 (typical start time).


If Crono won, why do the records show the big M with the W.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:26:38 PM | message detail
For the 20th time or thereabouts, the polls typically started around 11:45-11:50 in 2003, not 12:00. Mario/Crono was 5-10 minutes early, and about 20 minutes late. No matter whether you slice off the early votes or the late votes, Crono won every single 24-hour segment.

Wrong the polls started at around 12am sometimes they were early sometimes they were late. There's a reason why we went to 12:00. It's the time where it was suppose to end.

I wonder if Ngamer still has those stats...
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 164/192 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & HL2
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/14/2010 9:28:44 PM | message detail
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/03Summer/MarioVSCronoUpdates.txt
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/14/2010 9:28:58 PM | message detail
I wonder if Ngamer still has those stats...

http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/pollupdates.html
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:29:11 PM | message detail
Well Mario had the help of bad poll closing management, in addition to lots of stuffed votes that weren't caught.

The start times varied in 2003, but they were consistently close to 11:50. Very very few polls started at midnight or later.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
The Mana Sword | Posted 12/14/2010 9:29:14 PM | message detail
Bacon decided that all polls that don't involve Zelda or Link aren't even worth running.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
TepigMovie | Posted 12/14/2010 9:29:31 PM | message detail
Hmmm...

Is what what's his name saying in MWE's topic true? Halo beasted in the first few minutes and SBAllen hit the panic button?
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:31:23 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #207
Well Mario had the help of bad poll closing management, in addition to lots of stuffed votes that weren't caught.

The start times varied in 2003, but they were consistently close to 11:50. Very very few polls started at midnight or later.


It's Crono.

There were definitely Crono stuffed votes too. >_>
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/14/2010 9:31:44 PM | message detail

From: TepigMovie | #209
Hmmm...

Is what what's his name saying in MWE's topic true? Halo beasted in the first few minutes and SBAllen hit the panic button?


It's true. I watched as Halo surged out to an incredible lead and then I got a boner!
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TepigMovie | Posted 12/14/2010 9:32:35 PM | message detail
Oh well then if yo believes it it must be a lie!
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I like how each new topic you make reveals such varied facets of your idiocy. - foolmo
Now this is entertainment!
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 9:32:45 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #207
Well Mario had the help of bad poll closing management, in addition to lots of stuffed votes that weren't caught.

The start times varied in 2003, but they were consistently close to 11:50. Very very few polls started at midnight or later.




mario clutch
crono choke
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creativename | Posted 12/14/2010 9:32:59 PM | message detail
Let it go Mario fans, for the love of Alucard let it go.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:33:29 PM | message detail
The start times varied in 2003, but they were consistently close to 11:50. Very very few polls started at midnight or later.

No they weren't, especially with close matches and I wish Ngamer still had those start times.

Heck read Ulti's analysis he even said that when the poll didn't close at exactly 11:40 everyone knew it was going to close at 12.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 164/192 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & HL2
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 9:34:22 PM | message detail
Crono and Samus can share a beer together in the "I got toasted by Mario's clutch-ness" lounge.

I hear they do dollar drafts at happy hour.
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See You Space Cowboy
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:34:28 PM | message detail
Certainly there were stuffed votes on both sides, but it was pretty clear Mario had more. And it doesn't really matter, because Crono wins even with the stuffing if the poll were closed on time.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
Mr3790 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:35:04 PM | message detail
Well...I definitely say I didn't expect this.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/14/2010 9:35:25 PM | message detail
Alright, I just sent Allen a message on PSN. I promised I would never send him messages about the site unless it's a major emergency, but I think this counts as one since the higher-ups are making the contest stay within a very strict schedule and a delay would be disastrous.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 9:35:28 PM | message detail
Crono could've been massively vote-stuffed over the course of the day and that's the only reason he was ahead in the first place.
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:36:01 PM | message detail
I will never be able to accept another fanbase having quite the will and ability to stuff that the CT fanbase does.
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SnoicFactor | Posted 12/14/2010 9:36:22 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 83.33%

5
Halo: Combat Evolved 16.67%

1
TOTAL VOTES 6


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TepigMovie | Posted 12/14/2010 9:36:48 PM | message detail

From: SnoicFactor | #222
Fallout 3 83.33%

5
Halo: Combat Evolved 16.67%

1
TOTAL VOTES 6


JERK

JERK

JERK
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I like how each new topic you make reveals such varied facets of your idiocy. - foolmo
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Mario vs Crono | Posted 12/14/2010 9:36:49 PM | message detail
Let it go Mario fans, for the love of Alucard let it go.

Heh. We'll probably still be talking about the match years from now. >_>
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2002: Mario | 53831 | 50.05% | Crono | 53716 | 49.95% | lead of 115 |
2003: Mario | 66571 | 50.05% | Crono | 66434 | 49.95% | lead of 137 |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:37:30 PM | message detail
No they weren't, especially with close matches and I wish Ngamer still had those start times.

Heck read Ulti's analysis he even said that when the poll didn't close at exactly 11:40 everyone knew it was going to close at 12.


I remember reading Ngamer or someone's records of the time the poll opened in 2003. It was different every day, but generally fell within a 10-minute window around 11:50. At or past midnight was very very rare. I dunno about close matches.....I don't think there were any close matches that went down to the wire in 2003 other than Mario/Crono, actually.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:38:07 PM | message detail
The match had something like 133k votes of course there was stuffing.

Now remember that Link/Cloud has 147k
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 164/192 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & HL2
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:39:35 PM | message detail
I will never be able to accept another fanbase having quite the will and ability to stuff that the CT fanbase does.

Crono's 1-5 in matches decided by less than 2000 votes. Mario has lost one close match ever, SM64/LTTP.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/14/2010 9:39:42 PM | message detail
I loved the hell out of Mario's cheating ways back then. Now, I want nothing more than his comeuppance. HIS. COMEUPPANCE.
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creativename | Posted 12/14/2010 9:40:26 PM | message detail
Red, the Mario fanboys can only troll you if you let them. Don't feed 'em!
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Haste_2 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:41:16 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 0%

0
Halo: Combat Evolved 100%

1
TOTAL VOTES 1

First vote. Yaaaaaay, I have never done it before!

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/14/2010 9:41:24 PM | message detail
It would feel weird if this match was delayed until around 12:00 PM EST. As a result, all remaining 12 hour matches would have their timeframe switched from day to night and night to day. So Melee/Brawl would end up being a day match as a result of this glitch, assuming the Fallout 3 match became a day match instead.
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Haste_2 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:42:01 PM | message detail
The chances of my previous post being true is about as good as my ability to ACTUALLY get the first vote.

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IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/14/2010 9:42:34 PM | message detail
Well I tried to get to the bottom of things...

[ IngmarBirdman ] yo dude, what's goin on
[ IngmarBirdman ] ?
[ SBFailen ] Dude remember that time Crono lost in the first round?

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 9:43:10 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #227
I will never be able to accept another fanbase having quite the will and ability to stuff that the CT fanbase does.

Crono's 1-5 in matches decided by less than 2000 votes. Mario has lost one close match ever, SM64/LTTP.


What's Crono's favorite drink?

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41uvnMhjMfL.jpg
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TepigMovie | Posted 12/14/2010 9:43:15 PM | message detail
Oooooooooooo
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I like how each new topic you make reveals such varied facets of your idiocy. - foolmo
Now this is entertainment!
MudkipMaster30 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:43:55 PM | message detail
@Haste_2:

Damnit. You got my hopes up there. >_>
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:44:57 PM | message detail
Nah it just confirms that Crono stuffers are worse at this.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 164/192 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & HL2
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:45:12 PM | message detail
The match had something like 133k votes of course there was stuffing.

Now remember that Link/Cloud has 147k


I dunno if this is a serious argument, but you have to look at votal intake trends inside the match to decide anything about stuffing. Mario/Crono's pace picked up dramatically at the end; it got 3-4000 votes above the trendline in the last 2 hours from what I remember of when I calculated it. Those numbers dwarf any cases of legitimate rallying we've seen.

You know I am always extremely hesitant to call stuffing on anything, and frankly, most of the times people shout rallying they just completely misunderstand the concept of variance. This is not such a case.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
LOLContests | Posted 12/14/2010 9:45:31 PM | message detail
Nobody ever brings up the other blatant Ceej manipulation that match which was Mario *not* getting a pic from his first appearance when that was the theme of the round.

I'm-a cheating indeed.
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MudkipMaster30 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:46:43 PM | message detail
Aha! The fiend who shut down the poll has finally revealed themself! It's... Kirby!?! :o
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Merc25 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:46:49 PM | message detail
This is exactly what I needed to stay awake(bugs and comments), thank you guys.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 9:47:17 PM | message detail
I love talking about Mario/Crono II with people that supported Crono.
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See You Space Cowboy
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:47:24 PM | message detail
You know I have yet to defend Mario, the main point is that the poll should have ended at 12 where Mario completed his comeback.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 164/192 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & HL2
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:50:06 PM | message detail
It should have ended at 11:45, closer to the standard start time for the year, and already 5 minutes over 24 hours, when Crono still led by like 170. Alternatively, if you insist on 12:00, even though 12:00 was not the standard time in 2003, you should throw out the first 20 minutes of voting, which Mario won, and Crono still wins.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/14/2010 9:52:15 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
174----1------------100.00
173----1------------100.00
172----0------------0.00
171----0------------0.00
170----1------------100.00
169----4------------100.00
168----3------------66.67
167----8------------75.00
166----8------------87.50
165----17----------82.35
164----19----------84.21
163----31----------74.19
162----39----------87.18
161----31----------70.97
160----46----------84.78
159----64----------75.00
158----66----------69.70
157----135--------31.11
156----125--------60.80
155----111--------62.16
154----129--------64.34
153----120--------69.17
152----118--------65.25
151----151--------60.93
150----152--------53.29
149----171--------57.89
148----168--------47.62
147----178--------53.37
146----186--------53.76
145----207--------54.59
144----210--------54.76
143----227--------51.10
142----210--------54.29
141----242--------51.24
140----213--------50.70
139----259--------47.10
138----282--------44.33
137----253--------47.04
136----262--------45.80
135----258--------48.84
134----295--------46.44
133----297--------44.78
132----342--------42.40
131----301--------40.86
130----332--------45.78
129----328--------46.95
128----343--------45.19
127----351--------31.05
126----301--------39.20
125----327--------38.23
124----331--------36.56
123----350--------34.57
122----388--------39.69
121----379--------35.09
120----398--------33.92
119----402--------31.09
118----365--------32.60
117----376--------34.04
116----393--------30.53
115----444--------29.73
114----415--------30.36
113----426--------28.64
112----432--------26.62
111----462--------21.21
110----443--------23.02
109----445--------25.39
108----523--------23.71
107----490--------22.65
106----463--------22.03
105----469--------23.03
104----472--------23.94
103----494--------18.62
102----508--------20.87
101----496--------18.15
100----522--------22.61
99------481--------17.88
98------498--------19.68
97------491--------18.53
96------534--------17.04
95------492--------14.43
94------473--------17.34
93------467--------14.35
92------475--------12.00
91------456--------13.38
90------450--------13.56
89------492--------12.20
88------450--------10.22
87------449--------12.47
86------414--------13.04
85------374--------11.76
84------345--------8.41
83------394--------9.14
82------353--------7.93
81------322--------10.87
80------319--------10.03
79------265--------9.43
78------279--------8.60
77------261--------8.43
76------258--------13.57
75------212--------6.13
74------229--------3.93
73------224--------5.36
72------185--------5.41
71------182--------7.69
70------171--------5.26
69------153--------9.80
68------118--------10.17
67------103--------6.80
66------123--------8.13
65------93----------5.38
64------85----------9.41
63------76----------5.26
62------63----------3.17
61------58----------8.62
60------52----------5.77
59------47----------2.13
58------53----------1.89
57------39----------5.13
56------30----------3.33
55------25----------4.00
54------33----------3.03
53------17----------11.76

51------22----------4.55
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/14/2010 9:52:16 PM | message detail
50------18----------5.56
49------14----------7.14
48------11----------9.09

46------10----------10.00

43------6------------16.67

40------8------------12.50

37------5------------20.00

31------5------------20.00

24------4------------25.00

22------4------------25.00
21------4------------25.00

15------4------------25.00

3--------9------------11.11


Max score: 188
Omitted scores all got the match wrong.

Overall prediction percentage wasn't too good but the top tiers did quite well. They managed to stay in the mid 80s for a while before the prediction percentage faded as normal. The 157 brackets do really poorly for some reason so there might be a bunch of identical brackets there. I don't think those are Luster Soldier's accounts, though.

7 people fell off the Top 50. wesastro911, LoneRanger22, PKProStudio, Sephiroth23x, fount_of_evil, TehDukeofEarl and axelslament did not have Wind Waker winning the match.

1 person got it wrong and survived. maisface86 also did not have Wind Waker winning the match.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 9:52:46 PM | message detail
This is like the GotD smoke break, when we talk about days gone by.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:53:08 PM | message detail
I still have no idea why you keep thinking the poll started at 11:50, sure there was no set time, but the consensus was 12ish.

You should blame CJayC for starting the poll early not ending it late and besides the match was the most hyped match I'm sure everyone that voted early would have voted later.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 164/192 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & HL2
LOLContests | Posted 12/14/2010 9:53:28 PM | message detail
I agree with charmander in theory. Polls were supposed to start and end at 12:00 AM. Mario/Crono didn't end late, it started early.

However, that's just semantics. Ceej was right in leaving the poll open until 12, since if Mario's finish had been a touch stronger then it was he would have won the proper midnight to midnight time frame, and be the "proper" winner. As it was, Mario did not win the 12-12 time period.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/14/2010 9:53:33 PM | message detail
There is no consecutive 24 hour time frame in that match that Mario won.
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