GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 976
AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/14/2010 10:49:50 AM | message detail |
Also,
seriously, Extha will scream "NO logical sense", but R/B/Y's votes not
going overwhelmingly to G/S/C makes plenty of sense to me. My friends
and I did that sporcle quiz of the 151 original pokemon a few times in
college and everybody who was around would participate. They played it
in the bar a few times and you'd get a lot of "**** YEAH CHARMANDER"
and such from otherwise stalwart "bros". But if somebody searched
"guess the pokemon" and pulled up a different generation, the uniform
response was "what the hell is this ****". Almost EVERYBODY in my age group got caught up in the super pokemon fad of the late 90s. But that fad died off right around G/S/C came out. Thus tons of gamers, even your Call of Duty bros, have nostalgia towards R/B/Y as a peak of 90s gaming that would go above many other things. Only the devout pokemon fans played G/S/C, and while they think it is the better game, they are in the minority. It's like... everybody could tell you about CHRIS MONEYMAKER winning the World Series of Poker. But if you asked who won this year, you'd get a lot of "who gives a ****", even if the hardcore poker fans would say he's much more deserving. --- "nah, it's not my team if I drop pitchers for merely being horrible" -War13104 |
The Mana Sword | Posted 12/14/2010 10:50:54 AM | message detail |
Johnathan Duhamel! --- This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists? |
ZenOfThunder | Posted 12/14/2010 10:50:56 AM | message detail |
http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/12/500x_mgs.jpg --- ~Zen is using Chrome because Firefox sucks now. |
SuperAngelo128 | Posted 12/14/2010 10:53:52 AM | message detail |
Pretty safe to assume there's plenty of people who dont care about GSC but love RBY Just look at a bunch of b8ers on here for some examples a bunch of people on GameFAQs are more likely like this --- ~ Ange no heroickrauss bullying topic i see. feels wrong, board viewing experience feels lesser |
SuperAngelo128 | Posted 12/14/2010 10:54:20 AM | message detail |
From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #401 That's kinda how things went around my neighberhood also --- ~ Ange no heroickrauss bullying topic i see. feels wrong, board viewing experience feels lesser |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 10:55:02 AM | message detail |
2 things don't make sense: 1. How did MM do better against GSC without RBY in the poll? 2. How did GSC get 42% on RBY in the first place? --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
ZenOfThunder | Posted 12/14/2010 10:56:29 AM | message detail |
SFF everything is SFF everything --- ~Zen is using Chrome because Firefox sucks now. |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 11:04:59 AM | message detail |
I was bored so I decided to calculate the average and standard deviation from the gurus and casuals. The gurus have an average of 155.12 points with standard deviation of 10.23 while the casuals have an average of 107.07 points with standard deviation of 24.70, it's to no one's surprise that the gurus have a higher average and it's expected that out variation would be a lot smaller since we don't take crazy upsets. Of course both sets are not normally distributed with both distributions being skewed to the left. If we do assume that it is normal, the point is that with an equal sample size the gurus should have the bracket with the most points a lot more often than the casuals. The problem is that the sample sizes are not equal, in fact there's 122 times more casual brackets than gurus which greatly increases their chances to have a bracket that is many standard deviations away from the mean which is why board 8 doesn't always win contests. Thoughts? --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 160/184 Today's Matches: Pokemon GSC & LoZWW |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 11:08:30 AM | message detail |
Everyone
already knows that the stats topic and the board does way way better
than the casuals. I mean, more than half the stats topic finishes in
the top percentile each year. Gurus continue to outperform casuals on
the leaderboard, prize winners, and winners, considering how many more
casuals there are. After Ulti's win, we could have no more winners for
50 years and we'd still be ahead of the casuals in win rate. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 11:11:54 AM | message detail |
It
was more to the people that don't know their stats and keep falling for
Ulti's "then explain why the gurus haven't won a contest since me" bit
he pulls every now and then. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 160/184 Today's Matches: Pokemon GSC & LoZWW |
EvilNcr | Posted 12/14/2010 11:12:46 AM | message detail |
From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #401 This. So so so this. It's the only Pokemon generation I played. And I've ignored the entire N64/GC/Wii/GBA/DS Zelda/Mario/Metroid/Pokemon except for RBY and... I think Mario & Luigi Superstars Saga. If even I played it and liked it, it should explain a lot about why RBY is so disproportionally strong compared to any other. --- *sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16 |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/14/2010 11:30:52 AM | message detail |
red sox 777 Posted 12/14/2010 1:55:02 PM message detail 2 things don't make sense: 1. How did MM do better against GSC without RBY in the poll? 2. How did GSC get 42% on RBY in the first place? For the 4th time: RBY is completely separate from the rest of the Pokemon games. It is the casual entrant, while anybody who considers themselves a hardcore Pokemon fan vastly prefers the other games due to the better battle mechanics/whatever. RBY is like OoT, where literally everyone has played the game at some point. This is the same reason why I think Link's Awakening would hold up well against OoT or LttP. It has way more of a hardcore fanbase, whereas OoT and LttP are so wildly popular that they win based on exposure alone. It blows my mind that noone else seems to have come to this conclusion after looking at last year's match, and instead went on (GSC WOULDA WON IF RBY WASN'T THERE!!!!!!!!!1111111oneoneone) mode --- http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg |
Greyfeld | Posted 12/14/2010 11:37:17 AM | message detail |
Is it a bad sign when i want to discredit sound logic, just because it came from Black Turtle? |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 11:38:02 AM | message detail |
Well, rSFF between GSC and RBY seems like a good theory now, but it's hardly conclusive. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 11:45:32 AM | message detail |
This
is the same reason why I think Link's Awakening would hold up well
against OoT or LttP. It has way more of a hardcore fanbase, whereas OoT
and LttP are so wildly popular that they win based on exposure alone. LA didn't hold up that well against LttP. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 160/184 Today's Matches: Pokemon GSC & LoZWW |
Greyfeld | Posted 12/14/2010 11:46:41 AM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #414 You know, this morning I was considering rSFF, and trying to think of a specific situation where it might be possible. And now that I think about it, I think Pokemon is pretty much the lone circumstance where it might actually happen. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 11:49:15 AM | message detail |
I
haven't had a chance to give my two cents on today's matches, so I'll
just highlight one thing that bothered me from the last topic and be
done with it: In light of MM beating GSC, yoblazer says something like "Well, I guess this is the death of the 4-way format," and also argued 1v1 =/= 4-ways later on in the topic, while Ulti goes along the lines of "Well LOL Leonhart will probably still defend them." Despite the fact that mere hours earlier, both of you were saying "LOL Brawl lost to MGS4 TWICE IN 4-WAYS MAN IS IT DOOMED AGAINST MELEE," erstwhile conveniently ignoring the fact that the one time Brawl faced MGS4 without another Nintendo game in the poll, it brutalized it, and it still nearly managed to beat it the other two times despite TP and OoT sharing a poll with it. So pick one or the other, guys. You can't have both. And I really haven't used 4-way stats to argue matches very much this contest beyond the first round when I was making my bracket. I openly admitted I was nervous as heck about MM's chances of winning, which I never would've worried about if I was as much of a "LOL 4-ways flunkie" as I'm being accused of. And Ulti, I don't know what the heck I said or did to you that's got you taking such cheap shots at me the past couple days, but whatever it is, I apologize. There, I'm done ranting. And while I'm excited we're getting MM/WW, this isn't an encouraging performance from WW here, only matching MM's percentage on GSC. But could Oblivion beat this year's GSC? *thinks* Yeah, why the heck not? LET'S DO THIS By the way, it's kind of funny that we assumed that not all of Bacon's dream same series matchups would come to fruition, and we were right. We just guessed the wrong one! Oh, and who's still taking RBY to win a 1-on-1 Games Contest with FFVII and OoT removed? I want to see a show of hands! --- Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX! http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8463/banner2squirtle.jpg |
Big Bob | Posted 12/14/2010 11:53:41 AM | message detail |
Could Skyrim hype be helping Oblivion? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/Mach+Tornado.png |
695924 | Posted 12/14/2010 11:54:02 AM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #417 LttP would be in no? Link. Always. Wins. --- lol opinions |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/14/2010 11:55:36 AM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #417 I swear I don't mean to come off that way, but yeah I'll apologize too. I just make fun of people when I like them. If anyone annoys me enough I just ignore them, and I haven't ignored you sooooo yeah From: charmander6000 | #410 What "bit"? Almost the entire topic in 2004 told me Melee > FFX was a stupid idea. We're obviously the best at this, but every contest the board tries getting everyone to have the exact same bracket. And every contest, the board gets burned by it. So we all end up in the 99th percentile without ever winning. That's just pure fact. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.· This could be the last time you see me alive. |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 11:56:05 AM | message detail |
Oh, and who's still taking RBY to win a 1-on-1 Games Contest with FFVII and OoT removed? I want to see a show of hands! I consider RBY and LTTP even now, so I'm taking my favorite (LTTP). --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
The Mana Sword | Posted 12/14/2010 11:57:43 AM | message detail |
red sox turning his back on Chrono Trigger. Disgraceful. --- This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists? |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 11:59:59 AM | message detail |
What
"bit"? Almost the entire topic in 2004 told me Melee > FFX was a
stupid idea. We're obviously the best at this, but every contest the
board tries getting everyone to have the exact same bracket. And every
contest, the board gets burned by it. So we all end up in the 99th
percentile without ever winning. That's just pure fact. You don't have to listen to the consensus pick, and most of us frequently don't. I mean, does anyone actually try to emulate the Guru Cookie? No, in fact you find a lot of people taking big late round upsets that they don't really believe in specifically to get away from the Cookie. I think this board's win rate is fine- between you and Palmer that's 2 contest victories in 8 years, which is pretty good if we're outnumbered 122 to 1 by the casuals. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
The Mana Sword | Posted 12/14/2010 12:00:46 PM | message detail |
Palmer Why did you open this can of worms. --- This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists? |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 12:01:43 PM | message detail |
I'm
still taking CT > Smash, and could probably fanboy argue myself into
taking it as an upset over RBY at this point. It's really hard to take
it over SM64 and LTTP when it just lost to SM64 twice last contest. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/14/2010 12:04:15 PM | message detail |
If we ignore tiebreakers, I help that discussion >_> Also, if we look at top 10 finishes we see a good deal of representatives I believe... --- http://i113.photobucket.com/albums/n231/sihp/waluigi.gif |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/14/2010 12:04:59 PM | message detail |
What contest did Palmer ever win? --- .·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·. "I'm about as entertaining as a tax form." -Math Murderer |
FFDragon | Posted 12/14/2010 12:05:41 PM | message detail |
http://img.imgcake.com/mjpop.gif --- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE] http://img.imgcake.com/wesker.gif |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 12:06:18 PM | message detail |
The
last one, I think (if it's your main/only bracket, I consider that a
contest win whether or not it's prize eligible). If it's one of
Luster's 200 brackets that's different of course. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/14/2010 12:06:32 PM | message detail |
From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #426 Well yeah. We really need a stats person to win another contest one of these days. --- http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_uYCV9lwNaAg/SkTyuhLk_MI/AAAAAAAABj8/jQ09GVBnh8s/s1600/Godhand%20IGN.jpg |
AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/14/2010 12:08:10 PM | message detail |
Oh, just the ardent super-stats guys? Will never win again. Divine retribution for their hubris. --- http://img.imgcake.com/alecoweenpngam.png http://img.imgcake.com/alecpngym.png |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 12:08:33 PM | message detail |
What
"bit"? Almost the entire topic in 2004 told me Melee > FFX was a
stupid idea. We're obviously the best at this, but every contest the
board tries getting everyone to have the exact same bracket. And every
contest, the board gets burned by it. So we all end up in the 99th
percentile without ever winning. That's just pure fact. Wrong again, our brackets may be similar, but they are all different. I don't think we've had two people with the same bracket since the series contest. Did you not read my previous post? Statistically we're at a serious disadvantage from winning, if we increase our variation we lower our average which puts us at an even less chance at winning. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 160/184 Today's Matches: Pokemon GSC & LoZWW |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/14/2010 12:08:41 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #429 A fun entry is a fun entry is a fun entry, whether you submit one or 224. Palmer didn't win s***, Dr Football did. Palmer even promised to shut up about all that if I asked Allen and he agreed, so before this contest I did just that: http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/6479/funentry.jpg So at this point, anyone who actually spouts the BS about Palmer winning is just being intentionally dense. --- .·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·. "I'm about as entertaining as a tax form." -Math Murderer |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/14/2010 12:08:55 PM | message detail |
From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #431 Truth. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´ http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/6259/1246921928837.jpg |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 12:10:46 PM | message detail |
Well yeah. We really need a stats person to win another contest one of these days. Assuming the amount of people in the guru doesn't grow we're fine for another 10 or so contests. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 160/184 Today's Matches: Pokemon GSC & LoZWW |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 12:13:16 PM | message detail |
Also, I'm not getting this "MM beating GSC proves Zelda fans are drones." I mean, if this were the case, why the heck couldn't MM beat RBY with GSC in the poll? Or hold RBY under 50% in a 4-way? These last two matches have been full of ridiculous discussions. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 12:15:45 PM | message detail |
Wait, Dr. Football was in the Guru Contest. Same thing then, still 2 in 8 years. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/14/2010 12:16:36 PM | message detail |
I
just don't get why the people who picked Majora are acting like they're
geniuses. There was a direct comparison, not statistical voodoo. It's
like going "1 9 6 7 5 4 2 3 8 10" to count from 1 to 10, then
pretending the people who count correctly are the dumb ones. Sure you
ended in the right place, but it's not like you did it the right way. --- "Like, he thinks about Starcraft while having sex (his girlfriend said it was the best ever, so he must've been doing something right)." -G0EMON |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/14/2010 12:17:14 PM | message detail |
Wasn't Jak in the guru contest the year he won? Sucks to see everyone forget about him all the time =/ --- "Do you have ANY idea how low my self-esteem is?" -Dark Young Link |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 12:19:35 PM | message detail |
So that's 3/13 contests now, I'd say we're doing pretty good. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 160/184 Today's Matches: Pokemon GSC & LoZWW |
AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/14/2010 12:22:22 PM | message detail |
Also, lol @ me getting modded for saying it is better to question the intelligence of Zelda fans than to call them drones. --- http://img.imgcake.com/alec1pngus.png |
WhiteLens | Posted 12/14/2010 12:23:13 PM | message detail |
From: charmander6000 | #408 Well you could argue that us having G/S/C going to the semi-finals was a crazy upset, but that's about it. --- http://backloggery.com/whitelens/sig.gif http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v252/whitelens/Graces_Wall.jpg |
The Mana Sword | Posted 12/14/2010 12:25:54 PM | message detail |
I had Cloud winning the last contest I'm pretty crazy. --- This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists? |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 12:27:05 PM | message detail |
as many crazy upsets then. For every SotC type pick 10 other people would pick something like Bioshock/CoD4 > KH/KH2 or GTA3 > HL2 ect. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 160/184 Today's Matches: Pokemon GSC & LoZWW |
FFDragon | Posted 12/14/2010 12:27:51 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 12/14/2010 3:16:36 PM | #438 "We had a direct comparison." "lol 4-ways" Pick one. --- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE] http://img.imgcake.com/wesker.gif |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 12:28:26 PM | message detail |
From: KamikazePotato | #368 What's also funny is that I used 1-on-1 stats HEAVILY to prove Magus was overrated. --- Support Seifer Almasy (Final Fantasy VIII) for Character Battle IX! http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/9342/banner3seifer.jpg |
Hochimihnister | Posted 12/14/2010 12:30:20 PM | message detail |
I had Cloud winning the last contest I'm pretty crazy. Not crazy at all. He would have won if not for the rampant fraud that transpired |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 12:30:56 PM | message detail |
Yeah if it wasn't for Ganondorf I would have believed it too. Still the stats never predicted Knuckles > Magus, that was all Magus dropping. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 160/184 Today's Matches: Pokemon GSC & LoZWW |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 12:32:00 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | #420 Darn it, when I pick Melee > FFX, you should take notice. I was kinda surprised FFX was as favored as it was and came as close as it did despite the ridiculous pic! --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
DomaDragoon | Posted 12/14/2010 12:32:34 PM | message detail |
Oh, and who's still taking RBY to win a 1-on-1 Games Contest with FFVII and OoT removed? I want to see a show of hands! Hmm... nope, I'll take whoever wins this contest for the title in that contest. (And get it wrong, thank you NostalgiaFAQs, but that's beside the point). --- Guru Status: Not last. www.rpgdl.com - Because everybody loves violent arena battles, right? |
