GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 976
voltch | Posted 12/14/2010 9:19:48 AM | message detail |
MM realized how awful it was doing in 4 ways and decided to steamroll everyone in this contest. Brawl/Melee vs MM final baby! --- mii~ |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:21:16 AM | message detail |
Watch MM get a bandwagon... --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 160/184 Today's Matches: Pokemon GSC & LoZWW |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 9:22:14 AM | message detail |
This result seems pretty positive if you gambled with WW > This division, honestly. --- "I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer See You Space Cowboy |
TRE Public Account | Posted 12/14/2010 9:22:45 AM | message detail |
Score-Brackets-% Right 170----1------------100.00 169----4------------25.00 168----2------------0.00 167----3------------0.00 166----5------------20.00 165----10----------10.00 164----7------------14.29 163----18----------27.78 162----25----------16.00 161----18----------44.44 160----38----------34.21 159----49----------36.73 158----41----------43.90 157----46----------45.65 156----67----------31.34 155----62----------53.23 154----97----------44.33 153----132--------83.33 152----99----------79.80 151----105--------78.10 150----98----------76.53 149----138--------71.01 148----115--------85.22 147----158--------81.01 146----158--------81.65 145----167--------78.44 144----178--------84.83 143----169--------87.57 142----185--------84.86 141----204--------83.82 140----212--------86.32 139----241--------85.48 138----211--------86.26 137----240--------87.08 136----221--------83.26 135----265--------84.53 134----299--------84.62 133----280--------79.29 132----289--------77.85 131----260--------83.46 130----318--------78.30 129----300--------79.67 128----353--------78.75 127----323--------79.88 126----330--------79.70 125----353--------75.64 124----358--------74.86 123----362--------79.01 122----344--------68.02 121----339--------71.09 120----355--------67.89 119----396--------69.19 118----401--------69.33 117----393--------71.50 116----426--------66.67 115----431--------64.97 114----364--------66.48 113----407--------64.86 112----421--------59.62 111----481--------60.91 110----485--------60.41 109----449--------63.03 108----478--------54.81 107----485--------56.49 106----451--------55.65 105----479--------58.25 104----507--------60.55 103----528--------52.84 102----502--------52.39 101----516--------52.13 100----530--------51.32 99------499--------49.10 98------528--------50.95 97------500--------49.80 96------538--------49.07 95------497--------45.67 94------497--------48.09 93------517--------46.42 92------540--------48.15 91------498--------44.58 90------492--------43.70 89------488--------38.93 88------484--------40.29 87------481--------37.42 86------434--------39.86 85------451--------43.02 84------410--------39.27 83------435--------34.02 82------402--------38.06 81------364--------32.14 80------332--------28.92 79------315--------33.97 78------305--------34.10 77------279--------26.88 76------282--------29.43 75------229--------24.89 74------254--------30.71 73------238--------23.95 72------218--------27.06 71------187--------21.39 70------198--------26.77 69------173--------24.86 68------128--------20.31 67------120--------29.17 66------132--------19.70 65------109--------21.10 64------92----------17.39 63------85----------21.18 62------75----------22.67 61------57----------12.28 60------58----------15.52 59------48----------18.75 58------56----------8.93 57------44----------18.18 56------32----------9.38 55------32----------25.00 54------32----------6.25 53------20----------15.00 52------14----------7.14 51------22----------4.55 |
TRE Public Account | Posted 12/14/2010 9:22:48 AM | message detail |
50------21----------14.29 48------11----------9.09 47------9------------11.11 45------8------------25.00 44------5------------20.00 43------7------------14.29 42------10----------20.00 40------9------------11.11 38------14----------14.29 37------4------------25.00 35------6------------16.67 33------5------------40.00 31------6------------16.67 24------5------------20.00 17------5------------20.00 16------5------------20.00 9--------5------------20.00 3--------10----------10.00 Max Score: 184 Omitted scores got it wrong. This was supposed to be a match where Board 8 killed the casuals but we were the ones that got killed instead. Some of the middle tiers had prediction percentages as high as the mid 80s while the top tiers were below 30. 17 people fell off the Top 50. Iwazaruskopf, Swordsman12, TheOlympicHero, Mr3790, APHStriker, RaptorVinny, HaRRicH, tigger93, Osfan, Enohp, Pizzaknight, JKGibson2, gitanil, kangle5411, Celebrex, melikepizza and Glenn_and_Toad did not have Majora's Mask winning. 23 people got it wrong and survived. Former second place bospsychopaat, former third place EnochCamas, Blairville, VDontheLadyYo, Wht_Lens, Ultimaphazon, AcidEnema, Kotetsu534, SunnyX, McGee4Ever, SubDeity, darkfir, PSU_Jer, BaronvonPanda, kneazlegirl, draarrowgant, IngmarBirdman, Jakyl25, AgainAgainFFA, notConcerned, TheGreenThunder, MoogleKupo141 and MerchantTorneko also did not have Majora's Mask winning. --- Dr_Football punted my bracket across the field. Congrats to Dr_Football for winning the Character Battle 8 Guru Contest! |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/14/2010 9:24:55 AM | message detail |
From: KamikazePotato | #343 GSC was supposed to win last night's match (70/30 Guru favorites are still 70/30 favorites, Zelda or not). RSE, being another 70/30 favorite, should have probably beaten (what I'm assuming is) the weakest GTA without relying on an ASV bailout. I'll ignore DPP's 73/27 loss because Brawl could still be an SFFing beast, but if Melee wins with easy tomorrow, I'll consider that a disappointment as well. What I won't ignore, however, is DPP's performance against Metroid, where it was one of the biggest Oracle disappointments of the year. That just looks bad. The series has only looked good in one SFF match all year - against Fire Emblem. This won't imbue people with confidence when it comes time to predicting the next contest. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 9:26:43 AM | message detail |
We need a Kratos/Charizard rematch imo --- "I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer See You Space Cowboy |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/14/2010 9:28:56 AM | message detail |
Charizard
would take it with ease. He'd be a huge bracket favorite now, and
Kratos is a year removed from the GoWIII hype machine. --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 9:29:08 AM | message detail |
Charizard/Bowser then. --- "I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer See You Space Cowboy |
Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/14/2010 9:29:14 AM | message detail |
That was an absolute monstrous performance by Majora. THE best performance by a 1st seed this 3rd round. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view2/1499384/me3-o.gif |
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/14/2010 9:30:09 AM | message detail |
RSE won.
And it was a very debated match. You can't just go 'oh it didn't win by
ENOUGH', that match had everyone siding with GTAIV by the time it
rolled around and RSE still pulled it out. Fusion is an unknown. Calling DPP a disappointment against an unknown is also bad, especially when Fusion performed very well in the vote-ins and GBA games as a whole did great this contest. The only bad match of the entire year is MM>GSC, and if MM goes on to beat FFX, suddenly it doesn't look so bad. --- DFF |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/14/2010 9:30:55 AM | message detail |
Yeah,
I might take Bowser over Charizard if they meet early. Like... second
round with no new Pokemon game or Pokehype in sight, I might roll the
dice. --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 9:31:49 AM | message detail |
Anyways this DID look like a positive result for WW but it's dropping with startling speed. Strange. --- "I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer See You Space Cowboy |
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/14/2010 9:32:37 AM | message detail |
WW has a crazy board vote. I figured it wouldn't be as prominent when it didn't start in the Power Hour but there it is. --- DFF |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 9:33:12 AM | message detail |
Man, I got my ass kicked in this contest. I got a lot of the "hardest to predict" matches right, but every single disputed late round match is going against me, it seems. I'm fairly sure that Prime's gonna beat Half Life as well. --- "I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer See You Space Cowboy |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/14/2010 9:36:09 AM | message detail |
What
Majora did last night was so impressive that I've got all confidence in
it making the semis, even if we're not yet sure about the Zelda
hierarchy. Ocarina is the new FFVII on this site - it's the one entrant
that draws more emotion and warm memories from voters than anything
else. Majora's Mask, despite being an acutely different game, borrows
heavily from OoT. It's on the same console. It uses the same visuals.
Link looks the same. Epona looks the same. Enemies look the same. The
music is similar. The two games are tied at the hip, and I think that
alone will be more than enough. Majora/Wind Waker is done. --- Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/14/2010 9:36:31 AM | message detail |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #356 it was supposed to win because of BS 4 way stats. People kept saying the match was a tossup...so whhy on earth did people expect pokemon to come out and dominate Majora? It was never going to happen, either Majora won comfortably with over 55% or Pokemon gold won by 51% or somethign close like that. We got the former result. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view2/1499384/me3-o.gif |
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/14/2010 9:40:15 AM | message detail |
It's
funny. 1 v 1 stats have proven to be horrifically unreliable in the
past (why hello there Magus), but they never got quite as much hate as
4-way stats do. --- DFF |
Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/14/2010 9:41:06 AM | message detail |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #366 People wil deny it but you are right. I said before this contest MM wil be the one game to look out for because it's an N64 era zelda which so many people on here have played. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view2/1499384/me3-o.gif |
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:41:07 AM | message detail |
Man
the previous match absolutely got us killed!I mean the whole board 8
had G/S/C winning and reaching the final 4 too but the casuals were
much smarter than us it seems!Man... --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 9:41:21 AM | message detail |
Again with the "BS 4-way stats." I'm first to LOL 4-ways, believe me, but these weren't BS stats. They were as direct of a match as you can get, and the result made absolutely no sense. --- "I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer See You Space Cowboy |
YERspy | Posted 12/14/2010 9:41:36 AM | message detail |
1v1 has far less unpredictable factors than 4-way --- _foolmo_ 'I mean, what does electricity have to do with math besides calculators?' - ZeldaFreak29 |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 9:41:41 AM | message detail |
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | #370 *rageface* --- "I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer See You Space Cowboy |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 9:42:24 AM | message detail |
Yes,
the casuals got that match right. That's the one match all contest
where they didn't get absolutely SLAUGHTERED by us. LOL World of
Warcraft. --- "I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer See You Space Cowboy |
SuperAngelo128 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:42:51 AM | message detail |
even if you DONT lol 4 ways you do have to consider that maybe Metal Gear Solid voters may prefer Zelda games over Pokemon games? --- ~ Ange no heroickrauss bullying topic i see. feels wrong, board viewing experience feels lesser |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/14/2010 9:42:57 AM | message detail |
From: KamikazePotato | #368 You like linking to past polls, so I'll try it: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2925 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3306 Find me the 1v1 equivalent of that. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg Watch and you'll see... some day I'll be... part of your world! |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 9:43:55 AM | message detail |
From: SuperAngelo128 | #375 Give me some sort of logical reasoning that isn't a complete and utter reach for you to come to that conclusion. --- "I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer See You Space Cowboy |
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/14/2010 9:45:02 AM | message detail |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1353 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2088 4-ways are definitely more unpredictable than 1 v 1s, but not that much more. They're like any other results - take them with a grain of salt, and you'll do fine. --- DFF |
Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/14/2010 9:47:59 AM | message detail |
From: KamikazePotato | #368 unreliable in terms of what? Stats are just stats. They don't mean anything. Voters aren't robots who vote based on statistics, if they voted for one character in one poll they may change their minds next time, of course this isn't entirely true and it would make something loook stronger/weaker than it is but when 2 entities meet it's about what happens on the day, not what happened in the past. People kept using that stupid 4 way vote to give Pokemon an assured win when in reality if you look at those votes....they could have gone anywhere. Who is to say Majoras mask fans who voted yesterday chose Metal gear solid over it last year? 1v1 changes the entire dynamic of the voting system. Sometimes they can be fairly accurate..but you can't 100% predict every match accurately unless it's blowouts or obvious ones which involve the size of fanbases etc...and let me tell you pokemon does NOT have a bigger fanbase than Zelda on this site. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view2/1499384/me3-o.gif |
WhiteLens | Posted 12/14/2010 9:48:50 AM | message detail |
Ok, we all just grossly under-estimated that people will auto-vote Zelda. It's just one of those matches where you can't rely on past stats AT ALL. MP vs HL2 will probably be another match like that too. --- http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=207 |
Lightning Strikes | Posted 12/14/2010 9:54:57 AM | message detail |
Of
the Pokémon games, only R/S/E did as well as it should, and it wasn't
exactly stellar, just to par. D/P/P scraped past Fusion, beat down an
unknown, then got pasted by Brawl, making it look on the same level as
say Morrowind. I'm sure you'll claim SFF but even taking that into
account, that's not great. It only gets 60% on Mario Kart DS. But even
that pales in comparison to the consistent disappointment of G/S/C.
Yes, it got 70% twice. But really, look at the past performances of
those games in polls and consider SFF. G/S/C isn't weak but it was
given absurd expectations it couldn't hope to reach and that was
evident from round 1. It's strong, but not nearly as strong as people thought it'd be. That's why people are calling it disappointing. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/14/2010 9:55:33 AM | message detail |
From: ExThaNemesis | #371 It did make sense. For some reason you have it in your head that voters are robots who will vote for certain and specific things and everything has to relate to statistics. Stop acting like Guitar Hero Beat Ocarina of time FFS. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view2/1499384/me3-o.gif |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 9:56:55 AM | message detail |
It's
funny. 1 v 1 stats have proven to be horrifically unreliable in the
past (why hello there Magus), but they never got quite as much hate as
4-way stats do. They were, there's a reason why Ngamer's site calls it lol x-stats. Ulti and others have just switched their gimmick, in 2005 and 2006 the x-stats got a lot of heat everytime a match wasn't within 2% on the predicted stats. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 160/184 Today's Matches: Pokemon GSC & LoZWW |
TRE Public Account | Posted 12/14/2010 9:59:13 AM | message detail |
Voters
pretty much are robots who vote according to statistics. Going against
the grain every now and then doesn't change that. You can point out all
the outliers where it gets things wrong but it doesn't change the fact
that something as simple as "[(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA" gets pretty close
to predicting the collective preferences of the voters. --- Dr_Football punted my bracket across the field. Congrats to Dr_Football for winning the Character Battle 8 Guru Contest! |
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/14/2010 10:01:32 AM | message detail |
TRE calling others robots --- There is no better video game company out there right now than Square-Enix - Denzokuken |
Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/14/2010 10:01:45 AM | message detail |
From: ExThaNemesis | #377 It doesn't have to be logical. And you can't argue that MGS votes got to pokemon either. But for what it's worth... I'm guessing it's a console game...stealth action adventure, more likely to be Zelda fan than Pokemon fan...more importantly more likely to support say Older gen Pokemon game than new gen pokemon game. Lets say the bulk of MGS's votes went to MM while the bulk of RBY went to Gold...even then it's 50/50 the other 5% comes from the general current taste and feeling of people voting on that specific day. It's not rocket science. It makes sense, you just need to think outside the box. But too butthurt to do that. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view2/1499384/me3-o.gif |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 10:04:16 AM | message detail |
Hmm
no I think I'll stick with "ZeldaFAQs" instead of failing to think
outside the box. Remember I got Charizard right last contest. --- "I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer See You Space Cowboy |
Lightning Strikes | Posted 12/14/2010 10:04:49 AM | message detail |
From: ExThaNemesis | #377 "Mature games for mature gamers such as myself" Of course I think MM just happened to get a lot of R/B/Y votes personally. As I said, that match wasn't two Pokémon games and a Zelda, it was three Nintendo games. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
MudkipMaster30 | Posted 12/14/2010 10:05:29 AM | message detail |
Never
done so well in one of these before, 158 points with all of my top
eight in the still in contention. I don't have much hope of winning,
but if it's Melee/FFX in the finals I may make it on the Top 50. --- In 2012, the new Mudkip Invasion will begin... This user is a proud Canadian. |
Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/14/2010 10:05:48 AM | message detail |
From: TRE Public Account | #384 It does change that because you get results which are unexpected and surprising "according" to lol x stats and so on. I thought the whole "L block" thing changed peoples perspective and opinion on this issue anyway....people can vote for whoever they want. They preferred Zelda MM game to Pokemon gold. is that so hard for people to understand? I know you complainers are gurus or whatever and care about winning but cmon, don't be going around saying it doesn't make sense when it perfectly makes sense. It couldn't make more sense imo. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view2/1499384/me3-o.gif |
ZenOfThunder | Posted 12/14/2010 10:06:09 AM | message detail |
*does the "I am on the leaderboard" dance* It won't last long but that's good because I can't dance for extended periods of time without my heart exploding --- ~Zen is using Chrome because Firefox sucks now. |
Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/14/2010 10:06:34 AM | message detail |
From: ExThaNemesis | #387 So you're accepting MM won because Zelda has a bigger fanbase on this site now? Ok. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view2/1499384/me3-o.gif |
Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/14/2010 10:06:48 AM | message detail |
55.8% opening hour for WW. I think the WW > MM train has been delayed indefinitely. --- I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040 |
Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/14/2010 10:10:55 AM | message detail |
From: Kotetsu534 | #393 It never took off in the first place, You saw what AC2 did and what Oblivion is doing. WW for a Zelda game just isn't a beast..strong..but nothing spectacular. MM is going to roll over it quite easily. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view2/1499384/me3-o.gif |
Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/14/2010 10:11:51 AM | message detail |
It's
not as simple as "fanbases". When very strong games go against each
other they inevitably have significant overlap. If FFVII beats Zelda:
TP, is it because the "FF fanbase" is bigger than the "Zelda fanbase"?
No, it's because it's the stronger game. If, in the next round, Zelda:
OoT beats FFVII, is it because the "Zelda fanbase" is bigger than the
"FF fanbase"? No, it's because it's the stronger game. --- I predict and analyse the Game of the Decade contest here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/56817040 |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 10:12:24 AM | message detail |
Well since we've been burned by the casuals twice in a row, it's time for another round of gurus vs. casuals. In order... MGS3 | 68.90% FFIX | 56.77% SSBM | 55.86% LoZ: TP | 54.63% HL2 | 42.96% FFX | 42.83% MP | 39.39% RE4 | 38.64% FO3 | 36.15% SSBB | 34.89% KH2 | 30.26% Portal | 25.72% Halo | -6.69% SotC | -15.19% LoZ: MM | -24.77% Also if everyone that had WW took it to win today we would already beat the casuals by 46.96%. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 160/184 Today's Matches: Pokemon GSC & LoZWW |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 10:26:13 AM | message detail |
From: Assassin_Thane | #390 You really don't have any clue what you're talking about and should probably do some reading or stop posting. --- "I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer See You Space Cowboy |
AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/14/2010 10:37:16 AM | message detail |
Extha, when will you just accept the divinity of Link and join us in his kingdom of Heaven? --- Gamefaqs' #1 Testicle Bettor: Proud owner of many testes http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/6553/alec.png |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/14/2010 10:40:40 AM | message detail |
How does one go about accepting Link's divinity, anyways? Orally? --- "I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer See You Space Cowboy |
ZenOfThunder | Posted 12/14/2010 10:46:58 AM | message detail |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
