GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 976
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 12:33:05 PM | message detail |
From: charmander6000 | #448 Well, yeah, Magus had to drop a bit (or Knuckles rise a bit, Sonic seemed stronger that year) to get to that point, but still. And Ganondorf getting a boost between 2003 and 2004 messed things up a bit, too, so yeah. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 12:34:20 PM | message detail |
Also
not everyone said Melee winning the division was crazy, just that FFX
and WW were more likely to win it. Everyone knew Melee could be a
darkhorse. Even in my analysis I wrote that Melee could lose in the
first round or win the entire division. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 160/184 Today's Matches: Pokemon GSC & LoZWW |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/14/2010 12:35:28 PM | message detail |
Serious question: MGS2 vs MGS4, who you got? --- ·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. http://lh6.ggpht.com/_8FP0ZXQNIbc/TMPB4sM45cI/AAAAAAAABMk/NT3A1UHgh2Y/bwk.gif |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 12:35:36 PM | message detail |
Okay, two days of charts. Here we go: Time | MGS4 | SOTC | Votes 0:05 | 51.28% | 48.72% | 663 1:00 | 47.78% | 52.22% | 6798 2:00 | 48.84% | 51.16% | 5784 3:00 | 48.54% | 51.46% | 5317 4:00 | 49.31% | 50.69% | 5232 5:00 | 50.11% | 49.89% | 4941 6:00 | 49.17% | 50.83% | 4777 7:00 | 49.97% | 50.03% | 4513 8:00 | 48.54% | 51.46% | 4019 9:00 | 52.54% | 47.46% | 3460 10:00 | 51.25% | 48.75% | 3292 11:00 | 51.69% | 48.31% | 2950 12:00 | 50.54% | 49.46% | 2503 MGS4 wins the last four hours of the match outright (Good sign for MGS3 in a night match...!), but it was too little, too late, after letting SOTC have its way with the first 2/3 of the match and never really contending for a comeback. Lower Half Stats Shadow of the Colossus – 50.00% Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty – 49.96% Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots – 49.57% Diablo 2 – 44.73% Assassin’s Creed – 36.20% The Sims – 30.65% Banjo-Tooie – 30.30% Eternal Darkness: Sanity’s Requiem – 22.98% --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 12:38:11 PM | message detail |
Last night's chart: Time | LOZ: MM | G/S/C | Votes 0:05 | 54.74% | 45.26% | 1151 1:00 | 55.64% | 44.36% | 8266 2:00 | 55.42% | 44.58% | 4244 3:00 | 57.27% | 42.73% | 3365 4:00 | 54.61% | 45.39% | 2562 5:00 | 55.63% | 44.37% | 2112 6:00 | 54.60% | 45.40% | 1967 7:00 | 51.89% | 48.11% | 2455 8:00 | 55.04% | 44.96% | 2789 9:00 | 56.76% | 43.24% | 3360 10:00 | 56.69% | 43.31% | 3436 11:00 | 58.02% | 41.98% | 3592 12:00 | 57.86% | 42.14% | 3664 GSC has one really good hour early in the morning vote, but other than that, MM consistently 55/45s it and really rocks the last couple hours. Upper Half Stats The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask – 50.00% Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal – 44.05% Chrono Cross – 32.90% Mario Kart Wii – 25.67% Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King – 25.08% Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney – 23.88% Advance Wars – 23.54% Wii Sports – 16.60% --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/14/2010 12:38:33 PM | message detail |
Damn you GameFAQs and not loving Eternal Darkness enough... --- "^5 everyone on Team Alec aka Team With One More Testicle Than You Pokenerds" -foolmo |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 12:38:57 PM | message detail |
Well,
yeah, Magus had to drop a bit (or Knuckles rise a bit, Sonic seemed
stronger that year) to get to that point, but still. And Ganondorf
getting a boost between 2003 and 2004 messed things up a bit, too, so
yeah. Actually the boost was more between 2004 and the villains contest. Ganondorf's performance against Alucard was pretty bad and considering what Alucard did on Sora I would think that's the case. Had Ganondorf performed worse on Bowser in the villains contest I would've taken Kirby > Tidus, Sora > Alucard and Squall to win the entire division. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 160/184 Today's Matches: Pokemon GSC & LoZWW |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 12:39:33 PM | message detail |
Preliminary lower half stats: The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker – 50.00% The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion – 43.90% Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door – 39.36% Assassin’s Creed II – 39.15% God of War II – 36.05% SoulCalibur II – 32.97% Gears of War – 31.63% ICO – 29.84% --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
pjbasis | Posted 12/14/2010 12:40:07 PM | message detail |
I'd still take Banjo-Tooie > The Sims. |
UOTY2011 | Posted 12/14/2010 12:40:19 PM | message detail |
Shadow of the Colossus – 50.00% Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty – 49.96% Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots – 49.57% This is just hilarious. Like it's from some sort of alternate universe. --- _foolmo_ 'I mean, what does electricity have to do with math besides calculators?' - ZeldaFreak29 |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 12:40:40 PM | message detail |
Serious question: MGS2 vs MGS4, who you got? Right now I refuse to take MGS2 over MGS4, but that could change in the future. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 160/184 Today's Matches: Pokemon GSC & LoZWW |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 12:44:20 PM | message detail |
Also, tranny asked to see this, so... Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater - 50.01% Shadow of the Colossus – 50.00% Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty – 49.96% Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots – 49.57% Diablo 2 – 44.73% Paper Mario - 42.51% Assassin’s Creed – 36.20% Marvel vs. Capcom 2 - 36.15% New Super Mario Bros. Wii - 35.02% World of Warcraft - 34.73% The Sims – 30.65% Banjo-Tooie – 30.30% Animal Crossing - 28.79% Katamari Damacy - 23.69% TimeSplitters 2 - 23.15% Eternal Darkness: Sanity’s Requiem – 22.98% Well, technically he asked to see MGS3 = MGS4, but I refuse...! --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
FFDragon | Posted 12/14/2010 12:45:17 PM | message detail |
Serious question: MGS2 vs MGS4, who you got? Right now I refuse to take MGS4 over MGS2, but that could change in the future. --- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE] http://img.imgcake.com/wesker.gif |
WhiteLens | Posted 12/14/2010 12:47:39 PM | message detail |
I'd probably take MGS2, but that would be me not wanting to make the same mistake for the 3rd time, by putting faith into MGS4. --- http://backloggery.com/whitelens/sig.gif http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v252/whitelens/Graces_Wall.jpg |
vcharon | Posted 12/14/2010 12:47:57 PM | message detail |
So much whining about a series that isn't going to end up winning. Majora's Mask being the "worst" 3D Zelda? Seriously? --- :> |
TheCodeisBosco | Posted 12/14/2010 12:51:10 PM | message detail |
Pokemon stayed around 44%, huh? Duke Nukem > Charizard next year, baby! Book it! Great performance from Oblivion here, too. Looks like Soul Calibur II was really wasted - it could have done some serious damage with a better seed. --- Kingdom Hearts + Uncharted 2 = dead bracket. This contest, man. |
LOLContests | Posted 12/14/2010 12:56:02 PM | message detail |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
LOLContests | Posted 12/14/2010 1:01:40 PM | message detail |
A)
Majora's Mask is just as strong now as it was in 2009, it was just
hidden behind LFF/SFF. There's no Zelda Drone Effect as TP and WW have
not shown any signs of overperformance. B) That means that G/S/C is the entrant that was the fraud. -Its Round 1 performance was due to stand out factor/MGS/FFT LFFing each other, plus some degree of momentum from R/B/Y's crazy performance the day before. -In R2, throw out MGS for a second as it was overperforming due to some "standing out" of its own. What happened was the Pokemon games did LFF each other a little. However at the same time, they both overperformed slightly. At this point Pokemon was the star of the contest and they had a lot of momentum behind themselves after their Round 1 performance. These two events cancelled each other out to an extent, meaning that MM's numbers on G/S/C were mostly legit. -At the same time some rSFF by G/S/C on R/B/Y is possible. Maybe that's what ****ed everything up in addition to what I suggested in my last point. We have no clue of how rSFF would work in a multi-way battle, and it could just lead to weird results like this. --- "Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka Dr. Football beat me, Yesmar in the 2010 Guru Contest! |
melikepizza | Posted 12/14/2010 1:02:11 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | #453 4 definitely --- Gamertag - XxBradKennedyxX Has stopped playing irl for this format! |
Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/14/2010 1:02:58 PM | message detail |
Oblivion is doing really well, i would put on level with FO3 maybe 1-% below. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view2/1499384/me3-o.gif |
Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/14/2010 1:04:39 PM | message detail |
From: DomaDragoon | #450 Really? I have ahard time believing either smash would be able to compete 1v1 with say Mario 64 or Link to the Past. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view2/1499384/me3-o.gif |
HaRRicH | Posted 12/14/2010 1:40:12 PM | message detail |
I
predicted LoZ:MM/GSC would bring hell to this topic, and it
did...surprise, surprise. We've got two more LoZ-matches on top of the
rest of today, so let's remember to chill out a bit in the future. Two of the worst fanbases for this topic just had to face off in a controversial match and have more ahead of them, didn't they..... --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 1:47:05 PM | message detail |
I
take offense to Zelda being considered one of the worst fanbases in
this topic. But Melee/Brawl is going to be much worse, in any case.
Prepare for multiple rounds of recriminations from all sides,
declarations of the uselessness of stats/intuition/both, and of course
claims that the match was completely obvious. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 1:48:28 PM | message detail |
Nah, if Brawl wins, this topic will be very quiet, I imagine. But if Melee wins, hoo boy. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/14/2010 1:49:00 PM | message detail |
From: HaRRicH | #472 Yeah, those guys made even me look nice. And no matter what happens tomorrow night, no one gets to call Melee/Brawl obvious. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.· "I'd live in Soviet Ulti." -GTM |
HaRRicH | Posted 12/14/2010 1:51:15 PM | message detail |
I
love the LoZ-series and am all for us liking it. The discussions about
how it dominates everything have aged like milk though, and it's been
aging since 2002. That probably puts the blame more on outside of the
LoZ-fanbase than inside it, but so does most of the hell we give
Guybrush Threepwood and Monkey Island's another fanbase that ruins
topics pretty well here. If it always comes with their matches, I'm
connecting them together for the sake of this discussion. --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg EPONA EPONA EPONA |
transients | Posted 12/14/2010 1:53:36 PM | message detail |
Assassin’s Creed – 36.20% The Sims – 30.65% this seems kind of insane. MGS3 vs. SOTC is MVC2 vs. AC2, huh? I'd pick AC2 there, I imagine. --- xyzzy |
transients | Posted 12/14/2010 1:53:46 PM | message detail |
er, AC1 --- xyzzy |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 1:54:13 PM | message detail |
From: transients | #477 AC1. MGS3 vs. WW will be AC1 vs. AC2. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 1:54:32 PM | message detail |
I'm very confident in people calling Melee/Brawl obvious as long as one of them gets above 52%. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/14/2010 1:57:24 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #474 Considering Melee is the favourite i doubt this. Melee is also the superior game so you will have less people complain. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view2/1499384/me3-o.gif |
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/14/2010 1:58:00 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #480 http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20071207205411/board8/images/0/07/Cb05b57.jpg --- Around here, I'm the father, the son, and the Holy ****ing Spirit all rolled into one - Red Crow |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 1:58:13 PM | message detail |
From: Assassin_Thane | #481 The Melee fanbase is also much louder and hates Brawl with a passion, so they will rub it in. The Brawl fans generally like Melee, too, so it's not a big deal if it wins. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 1:58:30 PM | message detail |
Also, the Melee fans won't have much to say either other than "welp" --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
HaRRicH | Posted 12/14/2010 2:01:31 PM | message detail |
I think it's obvious
people are going to say SSBM/SSBB was obvious from the beginning no
matter what the percentages are. I still remember Leonhart calling
Tidus's win over Shadow obvious both before and after their close
match, for example...and that's small-fry compared to this. How many
times did we hear about how obvious Mario beating Samus was, too? There
are people who are fairly confident on both sides and will be anxious
to brag if they're right. --- What do Ocarina of Time, Majora's Mask, and Twilight Princess have in common? EPONA! http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 2:03:27 PM | message detail |
From: HaRRicH | #485 Darn right it was. Tidus (2003c) has a strength of 34.25 against Base Link. Shadow (2003c) has a strength of 34.28 against Base Link. Tidus 49.96% 55,996 Shadow 50.04% 56,094 TOTAL VOTES 112,091 Shadow wins with 50.04% of the vote! A 98 vote margin of victory. That's right. It was obvious IN SPITE of the stats. LOL X-Stats dates this far back, folks --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 2:04:17 PM | message detail |
You
bet the Brawl fanbase is going to rub it in if Brawl wins. Not
necessarily the Brawl fanbase even, but the people who play casually
and think Brawl will win. Black Turtle definitely will. The Samus fanbase would have done the same thing if she had beaten Mario. "LOL how could you pick a character the stats said would lose 56-44? That's obvious, it's such a huge gap." --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
transients | Posted 12/14/2010 2:04:41 PM | message detail |
it will not be quiet if Brawl wins in here at all. it will be like the Pokemon outburst times ten. --- xyzzy |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 2:04:51 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #487 He doesn't count. And I don't really feel the need to brag if Brawl wins other than "Duh." --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 2:07:04 PM | message detail |
As
a Melee fan, I would prefer a wall of text arguing from 2009 4-way
stats how Brawl was manifestly stronger than duh, which amounts to
saying that it was obvious. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 2:08:24 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #490 You want me to argue from a bunch of LFF nonsense? No thanks. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
HaRRicH | Posted 12/14/2010 2:09:28 PM | message detail |
I
don't recall many Samus-pickers ever feeling super-confident in her
despite the stats (EC, probably), though I'm sure you would have
somebody repeatedly saying "LOL COMMON SENSE" if she beat Mario like
Mario beat her, too. There were definitely lots of Mario-people who
picked him despite the stats and felt good about it. I don't think this fits well into SSBM/SSBB, where it doesn't feel like either side is particularly confident...but ugliness will still definitely come from it. --- Can you refuse nominating Epona? NEIGH, you can't! http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 2:09:29 PM | message detail |
Add me to the group that knew Tidus winning was obvious. Just because the match was close doesn't make it any less obvious. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 160/184 Today's Matches: Pokemon GSC & LoZWW |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 2:11:08 PM | message detail |
From: charmander6000 | #493 Just like Squall/Auron. (LOL HaRRicH) --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2010 2:11:11 PM | message detail |
Samus pickers were confident until Mario actually showed that he was as strong as Samus in round 3. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 160/184 Today's Matches: Pokemon GSC & LoZWW |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 2:12:49 PM | message detail |
Well,
my point is that the discussion will turn nasty after/during the match,
and there's really nothing that's going to stop it other than a really
really close match. That's something good about stats, actually- arguments based on stats are generally never that bad, because you can't really insult each other and call people stupid for missing "obvious" matches when you're both coming from a stats perspective. It's always the arguments based on intuition, hierarchies, and the like that end up spewing vitriol. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 2:12:52 PM | message detail |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/14/2010 2:14:46 PM | message detail |
I
was less confident in Mario than I am in Melee. I've gotten the sense
that most Melee supporters are about equally as confident as most Mario
supporters were back then. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/14/2010 2:15:22 PM | message detail |
LOL Smash Bros. FFX got dis mess Don't play Earthbound. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
FFDragon | Posted 12/14/2010 2:15:26 PM | message detail |
Play Eternal Darkness --- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE] http://img.imgcake.com/wesker.gif |
