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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 974

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695924 | Posted 12/13/2010 10:20:12 AM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #343
so SoTC is the next bandwagon joke of the contest. The last bandwagon joke? Missingno. What stopped that in its tracks?


That's right guys. SoTC is going to win the contest because Sephiroth is not here to save us.


You seriously think this thing can get past GSC? With sprites?
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ZFS | Posted 12/13/2010 10:20:13 AM | message detail
SOTC won't beat Pokemon or Zelda. I know people like to think "joke voting" is what's happening here, but it really isn't. There might be a bandwagon happening, but joke voting is not what this is. MGS4 hasn't looked great all contest, maybe not below MGS2, but it certainly never looked like it was going to compete with Pokemon.

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/13/2010 10:20:17 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #344
L-Block won due to the format. No way it would've beaten Link 1-on-1.

We need Sephiroth to stop SoTC before it's too late.





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The Mana Sword | Posted 12/13/2010 10:20:26 AM | message detail
And a game doesn't have to be looked at as a "joke" to get bandwagon support, so I'm not sure where this sentiment is coming from.

Don't fool yourself Leon, we all know Snake is a big joke.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/13/2010 10:20:33 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4121
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4163

SotC's result right now implies that it would easily beat Wind Waker.


Except that AC2 would smash AC.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 156/172 Today's Matches: MGS3 & MGS4
HaRRicH | Posted 12/13/2010 10:21:26 AM | message detail
And Kirby, and maybe Charizard.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2010 10:21:45 AM | message detail

From: The Mana Sword | #354
And a game doesn't have to be looked at as a "joke" to get bandwagon support, so I'm not sure where this sentiment is coming from.

Don't fool yourself Leon, we all know Snake is a big joke.


Old Snake's jokes suck.
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ZFS | Posted 12/13/2010 10:21:51 AM | message detail
SotC's result right now implies that it would easily beat Wind Waker.

i see you're still under the impression that AC1 is stronger for no reason

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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/13/2010 10:22:29 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #355
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4121
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4163

SotC's result right now implies that it would easily beat Wind Waker.


Except that AC2 would smash AC.


There is absolutely no evidence that AC2 would 'smash' AC1. It probably wins, but they aren't going to be too far off.

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DFF
charmander6000 | Posted 12/13/2010 10:22:40 AM | message detail
And a game doesn't have to be looked at as a "joke" to get bandwagon support, so I'm not sure where this sentiment is coming from.

True, but the game should defeat a more diverse group; Starcraft went through Halo, KH and WW and Charizard went through Kratos, L-Block and Bowser.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 156/172 Today's Matches: MGS3 & MGS4
YERspy | Posted 12/13/2010 10:22:42 AM | message detail
The thing with joke voting is that there was very little to no joke votes in the MGS2 match. NOW, people are thinking "woah, it would be hilarious if SotC beat MGS4 and then kept going even further to the finals!", and thus the joke votes.
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_Regaro_ | Posted 12/13/2010 10:23:03 AM | message detail
I would be fine with an SotC win if and only if RE4 beats Portal
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/13/2010 10:23:14 AM | message detail

From: ZFS | #358
SotC's result right now implies that it would easily beat Wind Waker.

i see you're still under the impression that AC1 is stronger for no reason


MGS4 beat AC1 worse than WW beat AC2. AC2 could be stronger and MGS4 would still be favored in a matchup against WW.

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DFF
YERspy | Posted 12/13/2010 10:23:36 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #359
There is absolutely no evidence that AC2 would 'smash' AC1. It probably wins, but they aren't going to be too far off.


AC2 would induce absolutely destructive SFF on AC1. No one would vote for AC1 given the choice between those too.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/13/2010 10:23:52 AM | message detail
Indirectly.

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DFF
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2010 10:24:12 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #360
And a game doesn't have to be looked at as a "joke" to get bandwagon support, so I'm not sure where this sentiment is coming from.

True, but the game should defeat a more diverse group; Starcraft went through Halo, KH and WW and Charizard went through Kratos, L-Block and Bowser.


Eh, the game/character just has to beat opponents the site didn't really expect it to beat, a la Kirby beating Dante, Master Chief, and Leon Kennedy.
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/13/2010 10:24:40 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #344
L-Block won due to the format. No way it would've beaten Link 1-on-1.

And Missingno ultimately lost to Sephiroth, so yeah.


Because it was unlucky enough to go against one of the top 4 characters in Round 3. If it had legitimately taken on weaker opponents, it would likely have gained more steam every single round. SotC isn't bloody likely to stop in the next round and the round after that. And if it beats MM/GSC/WW, Nintendo fans will bandwagon it over RE4 and then all hell breaks loose and it wins the contest.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2010 10:24:51 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #363
MGS4 beat AC1 worse than WW beat AC2. AC2 could be stronger and MGS4 would still be favored in a matchup against WW.


Yes, but I'll take WW > MGS4 at this point.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/13/2010 10:25:26 AM | message detail
The thing with joke voting is that there was very little to no joke votes in the MGS2 match. NOW, people are thinking "woah, it would be hilarious if SotC beat MGS4 and then kept going even further to the finals!", and thus the joke votes.

You know the saying, one's an accident, two's a trend? If SotC does get bandwagon it'll be next round not right here.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 156/172 Today's Matches: MGS3 & MGS4
HaRRicH | Posted 12/13/2010 10:25:53 AM | message detail
Yeah, now that I've seen that there is little difference between MGS4 and MGS2 here and knowing SotC/MGS2 weren't too strong last year, I can't take them all to be close to where LoZ:WW is at right now. Since AC2 got significantly closer to LoZ:WW than AC did to MGS4, AC2 would take AC on with ease...and it makes sense given their receptions.
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ZFS | Posted 12/13/2010 10:25:54 AM | message detail
Who is thinking this. Joke voting implies there's something funny about SOTC doing well. What's far more likely is that people see that SOTC beat MGS2 on its own, something most wouldn't have expected to happen, especially the casual passerby who assumes big name franchise = win, and decided to throw more support behind it in the hopes it'd go further. And given that MGS4 isn't exactly some loved game, it's not hard to push past it. Game isn't nearly as strong as people were thinking it was - and it makes more sense for MGS4 to be down on a level close to this than where people were holding it to. Bandwagon, sure; joke voting, no.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2010 10:26:50 AM | message detail
MGS4 cut

let's do this
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UOTY2011 | Posted 12/13/2010 10:27:45 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #369
You know the saying, one's an accident, two's a trend? If SotC does get bandwagon it'll be next round not right here.


I think we can all agree with that, but you have to agree that SotC gained some monster momentum (which is basically bandwagon) since last match.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/13/2010 10:29:12 AM | message detail
Who is thinking this. Joke voting implies there's something funny about SOTC doing well. What's far more likely is that people see that SOTC beat MGS2 on its own, something most wouldn't have expected to happen, especially the casual passerby who assumes big name franchise = win, and decided to throw more support behind it in the hopes it'd go further. And given that MGS4 isn't exactly some loved game, it's not hard to push past it. Game isn't nearly as strong as people were thinking it was - and it makes more sense for MGS4 to be down on a level close to this than where people were holding it to. Bandwagon, sure; joke voting, no.

Look at the battle bracket it was split down the middle for that match, the casuals expected a close match last round.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 156/172 Today's Matches: MGS3 & MGS4
tgs2 | Posted 12/13/2010 10:30:47 AM | message detail
It also had 30% support heading into this round so casuals were fairly confident in it advancing this far.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/13/2010 10:30:49 AM | message detail
I think we can all agree with that, but you have to agree that SotC gained some monster momentum (which is basically bandwagon) since last match.

I don't since there wasn't any reason for it to gain momentum today. Anyone not in the know expected a close match between the two last round.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 156/172 Today's Matches: MGS3 & MGS4
HaRRicH | Posted 12/13/2010 10:30:55 AM | message detail
Okay, one more time since MGS4 got a cut:

MGS2's percentage on SotC at this time: 49.98%
MGS4's current percentage on SotC: 47.9%
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/13/2010 10:31:16 AM | message detail
Yes, next round against MGS3 is likely to be worse. And the way these bandwagons go, lots of people will go for it winning the contest and it'll gain support for MGS fans like me who'll say "f*** this, if it's wiping the MGS series, it's winning everything. Then Nintendo fans after get outraged, do similar stuff and RE4 is already the next target and while you're still wondering what the hell just happened, it beats RE4/FFX/Melee/Brawl
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/13/2010 10:31:21 AM | message detail
As of now, if SotC=WW, then AC2 gets 55.13% on AC1. Any higher, and WW wins. Any lower, and SotC wins.

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DFF
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/13/2010 10:32:30 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #376
I think we can all agree with that, but you have to agree that SotC gained some monster momentum (which is basically bandwagon) since last match.

I don't since there wasn't any reason for it to gain momentum today. Anyone not in the know expected a close match between the two last round.


But it was a close match. And that creates bandwagons more efficiently than anything else. Combine that with the casual going "Woah, SotC could beat every MGS game?" and you really don't see where this is coming from?

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DFF
_Regaro_ | Posted 12/13/2010 10:32:34 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #379
As of now, if SotC=WW, then AC2 gets 55.13% on AC1. Any higher, and WW wins. Any lower, and SotC wins.


Ignoring SFF I hope <_<
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Denzokuken | Posted 12/13/2010 10:32:38 AM | message detail
This certainly isn't joke power, and I really doubt it's a bandwagon. Does that opening vote look like a bandwagon to you?
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/13/2010 10:32:45 AM | message detail
I'd bet on AC2 scoring higher than 55-45 than lower, if I had to.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/13/2010 10:33:09 AM | message detail
It also had 30% support heading into this round so casuals were fairly confident in it advancing this far.

38.86% even.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 156/172 Today's Matches: MGS3 & MGS4
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/13/2010 10:33:47 AM | message detail

From: _Regaro_ | #381
Ignoring SFF I hope <_<


It's purely by stats so what do you think?

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DFF
Greyfeld | Posted 12/13/2010 10:35:31 AM | message detail

From: ZFS | #371
Who is thinking this. Joke voting implies there's something funny about SOTC doing well. What's far more likely is that people see that SOTC beat MGS2 on its own, something most wouldn't have expected to happen, especially the casual passerby who assumes big name franchise = win, and decided to throw more support behind it in the hopes it'd go further. And given that MGS4 isn't exactly some loved game, it's not hard to push past it. Game isn't nearly as strong as people were thinking it was - and it makes more sense for MGS4 to be down on a level close to this than where people were holding it to. Bandwagon, sure; joke voting, no.


Considering SotC only beat MGS2 by 45 votes (That's 50.04% for those of you keeping track), this result is ridiculous and is definitely in "joke vote" territory. Because let's be honest, even if MGS4 is less liked than MGS3, does this poll really make any semblance of sense with any other explanation?

I mean, '09 x-stats MGS4 to 65/35 SotC. Are you HONESTLY telling me that a 1v1 format somehow overcompensates a 15% swing without massive joke voting??

I wasn't here for L-Block, but now I feel like I know how a lot of people felt in that contest.
charmander6000 | Posted 12/13/2010 10:36:09 AM | message detail
But it was a close match. And that creates bandwagons more efficiently than anything else. Combine that with the casual going "Woah, SotC could beat every MGS game?" and you really don't see where this is coming from?

So you're saying every close match gives the winner a boost? Even despite the match was about a week ago so people had a chance to calm down. The casuals won't say that until it defeats MGS4 so expecting a possible bandwagon next round and not here is not crazy.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 156/172 Today's Matches: MGS3 & MGS4
shadow8021 | Posted 12/13/2010 10:36:30 AM | message detail
lol MGS2 > MGS4
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UOTY2011 | Posted 12/13/2010 10:36:39 AM | message detail
Let's see what the prediction percentage is for this match and then we can decide for sure whether it was bandwagon or what
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The Mana Sword | Posted 12/13/2010 10:36:41 AM | message detail
I wasn't here for L-Block, but now I feel like I know how a lot of people felt in that contest.

No you don't.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/13/2010 10:37:50 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #387
But it was a close match. And that creates bandwagons more efficiently than anything else. Combine that with the casual going "Woah, SotC could beat every MGS game?" and you really don't see where this is coming from?

So you're saying every close match gives the winner a boost? Even despite the match was about a week ago so people had a chance to calm down. The casuals won't say that until it defeats MGS4 so expecting a possible bandwagon next round and not here is not crazy.


I saw people looking at the division and going "Look at all those MGS games, wonder if it can beat all of them!" before SotC had even beaten MGS2. And then the match ended up being extremely close with SotC needing a big rally to win at the last minute. It absolutely matters.

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DFF
charmander6000 | Posted 12/13/2010 10:38:51 AM | message detail
I mean, '09 x-stats MGS4 to 65/35 SotC. Are you HONESTLY telling me that a 1v1 format somehow overcompensates a 15% swing without massive joke voting??

Let's see MGS4 has now cooled off since it was released and it is no longer THE PS3 game (it's still the strongest, but it has competition now) and the fact that it only got 55% on Diablo II all adds up to MGS4 being weaker this year.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 156/172 Today's Matches: MGS3 & MGS4
FourthDeus | Posted 12/13/2010 10:39:21 AM | message detail
Exactly how do 4-way stats even translate to a 1v1 setting?
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/13/2010 10:40:13 AM | message detail
MGS4 being weaker yes. Weaker than MGS2, there is no f****ing way that's possible.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 12/13/2010 10:40:21 AM | message detail
Why are people arguing as if getting a bandwagon and MGS4 being weaker are mutually exclusive.

This is just a little from column A and a little from column B.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
charmander6000 | Posted 12/13/2010 10:40:57 AM | message detail
I saw people looking at the division and going "Look at all those MGS games, wonder if it can beat all of them!" before SotC had even beaten MGS2. And then the match ended up being extremely close with SotC needing a big rally to win at the last minute. It absolutely matters.

The only people that were doing that were us and everyone here believed that it had no chance against MGS4, not that it has shown it has a chance against MGS3 now people may rally it. Casuals don't analysis the bracket that much.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 156/172 Today's Matches: MGS3 & MGS4
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/13/2010 10:41:20 AM | message detail
And yeah, MGS4 is weaker. But nothing so far indicated that it would have any trouble with this match. The only reason people were considering this is because it 'felt wrong', and gut instinct isn't much to go by.

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DFF
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/13/2010 10:42:25 AM | message detail
The only people that were doing that were us

Completely wrong. We were the people doing it the least, because we figured that MGS4 had it in the bag next round.

All the people on this board, and off this site, that were getting excited about SotC potentially rampaging through the division were people that weren't 'in the know'.

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DFF
TRE Public Account | Posted 12/13/2010 10:44:02 AM | message detail
If GSC makes it to the quarterfinal, it will have gone through two Zelda games and shredded tons of brackets itself to match SotC running through the MGS series. Even if SotC does start to have a bit of a bandwagon, so would GSC.
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/13/2010 10:44:23 AM | message detail
And for the record, here is how L-Block started out... legit then gaining squeaking by due to a favorable draw of midcarders hurting each other and then bandwagoned to go right behind Solid Snake then all hell breaks loose

http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=match&match=25
http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=match&match=45
http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=match&match=55
http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=match&match=60
http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=match&match=62
http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k7&type=match&match=63
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