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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 974

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Dr_Football | Posted 12/12/2010 11:51:42 PM | message detail
DFF is dead, long live the next acronym to bless our lives



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
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~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man
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http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/4839/drfc.png
http://img.imgcake.com/drfootballpngru.png
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Dr_Football | Posted 12/12/2010 11:52:58 PM | message detail
And yes this is early, but I wanted to make a stats topic, and I figured it be appropriate after the match I was eliminated, and I need to sleep, and shut up
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http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/4839/drfc.png
http://img.imgcake.com/drfootballpngru.png
pjbasis | Posted 12/13/2010 12:01:54 AM | message detail
booooo

not even 400 posts yet
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/13/2010 7:40:34 AM | message detail

From: pjbasis | #003
booooo

not even 400 posts yet


You shut your mouth, it's DFF on Majora vs GSC night.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·
"Ulti is a real bro." -Chrono1219
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/13/2010 8:21:42 AM | message detail
SotC > MGS4 time coming up
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No, every man's goal in life is to spread his seed as many times as possible. - A statement Realo actually believes
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/13/2010 8:22:28 AM | message detail
I really doubt MGS4 is strong enough to give 2 the ol' 60/40 before SFF. It's also the second straight MGS match that voters have seen (not saying this is a factor, just saying it might be), and SotC is not heading into things with a big picture disadvantage like last time. If anything, it has the advantage. I could easily see Shadow going for the upper 40s here. A win is kinda hard to swallow, but I wouldn't be flabbergasted with the flabber.
draarrowgant | Posted 12/13/2010 8:22:57 AM | message detail
SotC > MGS4 time coming up

If this happens, I like my shoes with a little paprika and salt...

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psn: aarrowgant
Gooper Blooper | Posted 12/13/2010 8:23:03 AM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPkbAkmtheY

Sayin' goodbye to the last Mario game standing. *salute*

Oh jeez MM/GSC is tonight, huh? Better stay up for that. Let's go GSC!
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And then the car wash cost five dollars.
Pokemon Platinum: 1719 9497 5082 Pokemon HeartGold: 2966 0920 7723
HaRRicH | Posted 12/13/2010 8:27:24 AM | message detail
Nobody was taking MGS4 = MGS2 pre-contest, so...why are we now? SotC should do well, but it's not winning if it can barely win over MGS2 by out-clutching it.
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Nominate Epona, please.
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
Kamekguy | Posted 12/13/2010 8:30:32 AM | message detail
Nobody was taking MGS4 = MGS2 pre-contest, so...why are we now?

MGS4 has fallen. Granted, we don't exactly know by how much since Diablo II might just be putting on a legitimately good show on a strong game and Assassin's Creed is hard to get a read on, but it's significant enough to give it some consideration.
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"Have you tried the rolling jump? We apes have no need to obey the laws of physics" - Cranky Kong
Gooper Blooper | Posted 12/13/2010 8:34:56 AM | message detail
Don't people always hope for some crazy upsets as the contest nears the end and a lot of people are out of contention?
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And then the car wash cost five dollars.
Pokemon Platinum: 1719 9497 5082 Pokemon HeartGold: 2966 0920 7723
Ultimaphazon | Posted 12/13/2010 8:35:51 AM | message detail
For one, MGS2 had a massive pic advantage last round. With fair pics, I think SotC might have won that match 52-48.
Add a possible bandwagon for SotC, as well as MGS4 not really wowing us so far, and you have the reason why I'm worried.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
http://i25.tinypic.com/2cp5chf.jpg
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/13/2010 8:37:31 AM | message detail
DFF out

RKOF in.
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
See You Space Cowboy
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2010 8:37:32 AM | message detail
Man, this is not an encouraging performance from MGS3 here, at least for me. I'd take D2 over Paper Mario (at least at the moment anyway). I can accept Paper Mario being stronger than I thought, but I figured MGS3 needed 60% here to look good going into that big showdown next round. Not to mention, Paper Mario continually looking good keeps making Prime look better, so it keeps making me nervous about that MP/HL2 pick. Maybe MM/GSC will put my Battle Challenge out of its misery.

Let's say MGS4 equals or surpasses this number: Who's the favorite?

Anyway, I've been gone all day, so that's why I haven't done the chart yet. Here we go.

Time | Portal | M. Effect | Votes
0:05 | 60.28% | 39.72% | 710
1:00 | 55.58% | 44.42% | 7209
2:00 | 55.43% | 44.57% | 6116
3:00 | 55.30% | 44.70% | 5624
4:00 | 53.64% | 46.36% | 4998
5:00 | 53.64% | 46.36% | 4590
6:00 | 54.14% | 45.86% | 4252
7:00 | 55.48% | 44.52% | 3848
8:00 | 52.90% | 47.10% | 3397
9:00 | 54.37% | 45.63% | 3182
10:00 | 52.43% | 47.57% | 2985
11:00 | 53.14% | 46.86% | 2727
12:00 | 52.32% | 47.68% | 2391

After the ridiculous board vote, this match actually stabilized fairly well. ME gained a little bit from where it was at the end of the first hour, but not a whole lot.

Lower Half Stats

Portal – 50.00%
Mass Effect – 45.68%
Final Fantasy XII – 40.02%
Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII – 35.50%
Skies of Arcadia – 34.53%
Baldur’s Gate II: Shadows of Amn – 32.88%
Gears of War 2 – 28.53%
Plants vs. Zombies – 27.80%
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Support Squirtle (Pokemon R/B/Y) for Character Battle IX!
http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8463/banner2squirtle.jpg
HaRRicH | Posted 12/13/2010 8:39:27 AM | message detail
MGS could fall to Shadow Hearts-like levels; MGS4 is still better accepted within the MGS-fanbase than MGS2. I get that the MGS-drop is what allowed SotC to beat MGS2, in all likelihood, but it's going to take more than barely beating MGS2 to beat MGS4.
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http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/13/2010 8:43:56 AM | message detail
Voting for SoTC in spite of my bracket.

It taking out all three MGS games would be the type of thing that Ulti totally has coming, and it would be worth my bracket's death.
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
See You Space Cowboy
abdou | Posted 12/13/2010 8:44:09 AM | message detail
MGS games to become fodder? I am fine with that so long same thing happens to Snake
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...
charmander6000 | Posted 12/13/2010 8:44:48 AM | message detail
DFF is dead, long live the next acronym to bless our lives

Since I'm the one that eliminated you we shall call it the CharFactor. At least until I'm eliminated from the guru.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 156/172 Today's Matches: MGS3 & MGS4
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2010 8:45:03 AM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #016
Voting for SoTC in spite of my bracket.

It taking out all three MGS games would be the type of thing that Ulti totally has coming, and it would be worth my bracket's death.


I want MGS3/SOTC just so that Snake vs. the Colossus pic gets used.

That thing is incredible.
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Support Seifer Almasy (Final Fantasy VIII) for Character Battle IX!
http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/9342/banner3seifer.jpg
Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/13/2010 8:45:48 AM | message detail
i'm voting sotc!
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http://www.gifsoup.com/view2/1499384/me3-o.gif
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/13/2010 8:46:38 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #019
I want MGS3/SOTC just so that Snake vs. the Colossus pic gets used.

That thing is incredible.


I haven't seen it!
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
See You Space Cowboy
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/13/2010 8:46:55 AM | message detail

From: abdou | #017
MGS games to become fodder? I am fine with that so long same thing happens to Snake


seph

>

snake

rematch

etc
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
See You Space Cowboy
Djungelurban | Posted 12/13/2010 8:47:01 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #019
I want MGS3/SOTC just so that Snake vs. the Colossus pic gets used.

That thing is incredible.


Link?
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Nominate B.B. Hood for CB IX http://miniurl.org/ntI
ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/13/2010 8:47:26 AM | message detail
Bracket has MGS4 but whatevers. SotC upset could be awesome!
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Who you gonna root for? Who's it gonna be?
Is it Brawl, Final Fantasy or will you pick Melee?
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2010 8:49:03 AM | message detail
http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/6082/mgs3vssotccopy.png

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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
Ultimaphazon | Posted 12/13/2010 8:49:09 AM | message detail
http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/6082/mgs3vssotccopy.png
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
http://i25.tinypic.com/2cp5chf.jpg
Djungelurban | Posted 12/13/2010 8:49:48 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #025
http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/6082/mgs3vssotccopy.png


Haha! Nice one! Advantage Colossus...
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Nominate B.B. Hood for CB IX http://miniurl.org/ntI
Ultimaphazon | Posted 12/13/2010 8:50:11 AM | message detail
The pic is good enough to be posted twice >_>
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
http://i25.tinypic.com/2cp5chf.jpg
draarrowgant | Posted 12/13/2010 8:58:56 AM | message detail
Hey Ultimaphazon- I just checked our brackets and we are exactly the same through the rest of the contest other than you have Pokemon G/S/C in the Semi, and I have MGS4.

In the Guru, my correction for Portal>ME never made it so my Guru bracket was off by one pick -_-

Anyway, good luck.

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psn: aarrowgant
tgs2 | Posted 12/13/2010 8:58:57 AM | message detail
In before SotC leads at the freeze due to Apathy for too much MGS.
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You may take Mr. Rogers down, but I will be back and become more powerful than you ever imagine
"tgs is taking it alone"
Master Moltar | Posted 12/13/2010 9:00:11 AM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots 77.78%

7
Shadow of the Colossus 22.22%

2
TOTAL VOTES 9
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Moltar Status: 156 Points - Vote: MGS3
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/13/2010 9:00:21 AM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots 66.67%

12
Shadow of the Colossus 33.33%

6
TOTAL VOTES 18
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Who you gonna root for? Who's it gonna be?
Is it Brawl, Final Fantasy or will you pick Melee?
tennisboy213 | Posted 12/13/2010 9:00:27 AM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots 76.92% 10
Shadow of the Colossus 23.08% 3
TOTAL VOTES 13

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Join the bandwagon!! Mario > Link!!
charmander6000 | Posted 12/13/2010 9:00:27 AM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots 73.33% 11
Shadow of the Colossus 26.67% 4
TOTAL VOTES 15

Take that SotC
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 156/172 Today's Matches: MGS3 & MGS4
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2010 9:00:33 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots 59.46%

22
Shadow of the Colossus 40.54%

15
TOTAL VOTES 37

Whoo.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
shane15 | Posted 12/13/2010 9:00:50 AM | message detail
MGS-9
SOTC-2
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v303/Shaneh87/Haruhi/Kyonexplanation.jpg
MarquessLaus | Posted 12/13/2010 9:00:56 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots 60.53% 23
Shadow of the Colossus 39.47% 15
TOTAL VOTES 38
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When you've got a pretty-boy monkey on your back constantly calling you a puppet, you hardly want to seem like you're happy to be used. - DSakaCharanJ
SuperAngelo128 | Posted 12/13/2010 9:01:13 AM | message detail
well at least (hopefully) the 1st/2nd best MGS wont suck it up like MGS2 did
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~ Ange
no heroickrauss bullying topic i see. feels wrong, board viewing experience feels lesser
ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/13/2010 9:01:25 AM | message detail
At least if MGS4 wins 'll get 4 points.
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How would a Kirby that has eaten me look like? (Made by KG)
http://i1000.photobucket.com/albums/af128/kirbys_gal11/ctesjbuvf.png
charmander6000 | Posted 12/13/2010 9:01:35 AM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 26.79%

lol WoW fans
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 156/172 Today's Matches: MGS3 & MGS4
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/13/2010 9:01:41 AM | message detail
MGS4 with brackets.

Let's do this SoTC!
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
See You Space Cowboy
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2010 9:01:44 AM | message detail
MGS4 having trouble pulling away.
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http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png
http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png
Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/13/2010 9:02:26 AM | message detail
http://forums.gametrailers.com/thread/poll--what-is-the-greatest-met/1009295


Damn, MGS2 truly is the most hated game in the series. Obviously completely different site but probably reflects the fans views.
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http://www.gifsoup.com/view2/1499384/me3-o.gif
ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/13/2010 9:02:27 AM | message detail
SotC catching up whoo.
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Let me present a great man. The one and only of his kind. Ladies and Gentlemen, it's an honor to give you... CTES... umm... well... oh whatever.
charmander6000 | Posted 12/13/2010 9:02:32 AM | message detail
XD SotC is going 2 for 2
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 156/172 Today's Matches: MGS3 & MGS4
shane15 | Posted 12/13/2010 9:02:55 AM | message detail
MGS4 should win here.If 2 can keep it neck on neck until the very last update then 4 should breeze it.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v303/Shaneh87/Haruhi/Kyonexplanation.jpg
legendmusketeer | Posted 12/13/2010 9:03:03 AM | message detail
*lol* look at SotC go.
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LM
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2010 9:03:08 AM | message detail
Huh, I've had a perfect run in the Battle Challenge since MGS2/SOTC.

It would be fitting if SOTC put me out of my misery once and for all so I don't have to worry about it.
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http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg
Gooper Blooper | Posted 12/13/2010 9:03:49 AM | message detail
oh my god

Is SOTC actually going to go for this

knuckles.jpg
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And then the car wash cost five dollars.
Pokemon Platinum: 1719 9497 5082 Pokemon HeartGold: 2966 0920 7723
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2010 9:03:51 AM | message detail
Also, MGS3 will be thanking its lucky stars to have a night match against SOTC if it pulls off the upset here.
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"