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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 972

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/11/2010 12:14:56 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #172
FFX night match can lick my balls. It's going to save it from looking bad here, and it probably unfairly puts it over RE4.


You can take some solace in the fact that FFX can only save itself from getting embarrassed for so long. Either RE4 is going to pull off the shocker, G/S/C is gonna wreck it... or should it survive all the way to the final... it's going to get 60/40'd by whichever Smash representative is there.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/11/2010 12:17:06 AM | message detail
Another percentage drop for FFX. FFX dropped 0.09% in the last 15 minutes.

Golden Sun = top tier night vote
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/11/2010 12:33:53 AM | message detail
Melee is the more fun, more satisfying game, and that's all there is to it. Who's with me?
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 12/11/2010 12:54:08 AM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #074
13 users got match match wrong and survived. Former first place Xetherion


Goddamnit, i was in first place for one lousy match and i missed it! Would've liked a screencap of that. Oh well.
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transience | Posted 12/11/2010 1:51:46 AM | message detail
I've yet to see a poll that puts Melee squarely above Brawl. there has to be one on Smashboards or something, right?
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__Smurf__ | Posted 12/11/2010 2:05:59 AM | message detail
Why are people in this topic so obsessive about the Melee and Brawl match? It's like all some people have talked about for the past 2 months. Is that series and its fan hierarchy "that" important to you?
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 12/11/2010 2:07:18 AM | message detail
That match is the difference between winning and losing the contest. Whatever wins that match wins the tournament. It's a big deal.
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transience | Posted 12/11/2010 2:07:56 AM | message detail
it's likely the two biggest games in the contest. would you prefer we discussed Valkyria Chronicles vs. Disgaea more?
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 12/11/2010 2:10:52 AM | message detail
Melee/Brawl is the most important match of the contest, as it decides one of the finalists, and is worth 56 points. Some even think the winner of that match is a lock to win the whole contest. I can see why there is so much hype about it.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/11/2010 2:11:57 AM | message detail
Smurf not getting it, shocker
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/11/2010 4:04:47 AM | message detail
Well FFX is doing okay.Man this site hates FF as the years pass it seems.Now the previous match...Less than 12%?Nice.But only 33 people got it wrong at the leaderboard.Nice performance by the tops.
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creativename | Posted 12/11/2010 4:50:18 AM | message detail
Sweeet SOTC pic against MGS4

...what a freakin' stupid pic for MM. No Fierce Deity Link=absolute fail. The hell Bacon?? Such a waste.

Am I correct in assuming that the main conclusion people are drawing from KH2 vs. KH is that sequel ASV>older game ASV? This is something we would logically have believe earlier, and now it's happened twice along with the Halo match.

I think Melee/Brawl is still a toss-up though. I don't think we should overreact on KH2 vs KH, it's a different series and I never really heard any hate for KH2, or that the hardcore fanbase preferred the original. Brawl got some hate and the hardcores certainly prefer Melee. Could still go either way, I wouldn't label either as a favorite at this point.
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creativename | Posted 12/11/2010 4:54:48 AM | message detail
Also while there couldn't have been much SFF since KH2 only won by a few points, I do think the trends are clear evidence of SFF. We've seen SFF mess with trends before. I don't think Kingdom Hearts gets crushed in the ASV that badly if not for SFF.

Did anybody else suggest this earlier?
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__Smurf__ | Posted 12/11/2010 4:58:44 AM | message detail
To be fair the Melee vs Guitar Hero II winner could be said would also go on to win the contest. There's never been any doubt Melee is a higher priority in the fan hierarchy, brawl will lose and lose well and anyone with a grain of sense will see that. Just seems certain people here are intent on hyping Brawl as the favourite so they have an excuse to go on a Wii mockery tirade when its inevitable "shock" defeat happens.

Not mentioning any names of course! Although maybe he legitimately believes Kingdom Hearts II being popular spells ruin for melee, who knows what goes on in that guys head.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 12/11/2010 5:01:18 AM | message detail
Also while there couldn't have been much SFF since KH2 only won by a few points, I do think the trends are clear evidence of SFF. We've seen SFF mess with trends before. I don't think Kingdom Hearts gets crushed in the ASV that badly if not for SFF.

Wouldn't it just be logical that a game with identical fanbases that was released more recently have a clear advantage during the one voting window with especially young voters?

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creativename | Posted 12/11/2010 5:16:12 AM | message detail
What the hell, SMG was the battle favorite? And the top guy picked SMG?? How the hell did he get the top spot while thinking SMG could win...? Just a crazy SMG fanboy I hope.

From: __Smurf__ | #1055
Wouldn't it just be logical that a game with identical fanbases that was released more recently have a clear advantage during the one voting window with especially young voters?


...uh. What does this, which is what we all already assumed, have to do with what I said? That block had exaggerated trends.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/11/2010 5:25:03 AM | message detail
Well this ended up being the best FFX performance yet. So you got 65% on GTA vs likely 66% on GS, a game that already beat GTA. Now you could argue VC > SA, or Dark Dawn overperformance for GS, and blah blah, but in the end I think a night match favors FFX > RE4.
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HaRRicH | Posted 12/11/2010 5:27:02 AM | message detail
Yeah, FFX is doing well here. This kind of performance should ensure it reaches the semi-finals as long as RE4 can't retaliate back hard in the next two rounds.
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creativename | Posted 12/11/2010 5:45:41 AM | message detail
Wait a minute, Melee/Brawl is a night match. For some reason I was thinking it was a day match. That would probably favor Melee if anything.

Looks like the top battle brackets got killed by KH2. I'm still in the top 50 somehow despite getting it wrong and having what I would dub a very crappy battle contest so far.

What's with the insane preference of Asia/Phillipines for KH2? Very strange.

Looking at the updates for the KH/2 match (I missed it completely), until 2:30 that match was just epic. Jeeze! Completely back and forth. Too bad it got so one-sided so suddenly.

And man, Ulti sure jumped ship on Melee fast. And it doesn't even make much sense! I mean KH vs. KH2 is a very unique case, we all knew this and talked openly about it beforehand, which is why the match was considered such a head-scratcher. In virtually every franchise, the fans of the series have some order of preference. For KH/2 this was never the case, they are both viewed with equal esteem. On top of being indirectly equal from everything we'd seen beforehand.

Melee/Brawl have the indirectly equal similarity, but the fanbase clearly prefers Melee. But Brawl does have multiplayer. In the end though, it still screams tossup to me.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/11/2010 6:28:22 AM | message detail
At this exact moment, FFX has the same percentage in Europe, South America, and worldwide. That's cool.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/11/2010 6:28:49 AM | message detail
As of a few seconds ago, anyway. =(
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Advokaiser | Posted 12/11/2010 6:47:35 AM | message detail
Hey guys, I have little information on the next match, but...

Could KOTOR break 40% on FFIX?

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creativename | Posted 12/11/2010 6:55:39 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #651
Man. Said it before and I'll say it again, FFX is very lucky it gets a bunch of night matches to overrate it.


This is an incredible myth that I've gone over before, and this match is just another example of it.

The Golden Sun day vote is legit. Yet FFX has not lost one bit of percent since the sun rose - it's still gaining slightly (in fact it's rose almost every single update since the sun came up). The FFX day vote is nothing like it's overnight vote...but that Power Hour skews things *horribly*. The same thing happened in FFX's other matches. The daylight time was a stall for this supposed "night game".

If this was a 24 hour match, what would happen here? FFX would very likely not drop or at all in percent from noon to midnight. In fact with it's strong SNV, there's a fair chance it would end with a higher percent in a 24 hour match than whatever it will have at noontime.

I've said it before, but it's quite possible that a night match is the worst possible situation for FFX against RE4 (with the options being night match, day match, and 24 hour match). I'm not sure that's the case - but it's possible. In the end it's very hard to say just what sort of scenario is best or worst for FFX. But this notion that FFX has been benefiting from night matches is false. For night matches people always fixate on that dead hour vote, but the Power Hour(s) is more important. Same reason why people falsely used to think Samus/Metroid was "day" oriented. FFX would be at a disadvantage against Pokemon or Zelda in a day match - but RE4 is not Pokemon or Zelda.

The RE4 match will be very interesting though because the games have completely polar opposite trends. RE4 will devastate the Power Hour(s), then FFX will start slaughtering and rise to heaven. What's bad for FFX is that a Snake vs. Cloud scenario might develop - RE4 hits a home run early, then gets momentum enough to stall out a win with FFX simply running out of comeback time. Even though I'm confident FFX is stronger than RE4 in raw strength.

From: KamikazePotato | #707
This is not even close to true for anything outside of FF7. FF8, 9, and 10 are all extremely night-oriented.


Plain false. CP724 was pretty much correct (as red sox said, it's probably more true for FF7 characters, since their day vote is better than that of FFX - but FFX's board vote has been so horrid this contest I'm not so sure it's much different than what FF7 was; I can only imagine what the actual FF7's board vote would be these days!). Against neutral opponents (read: not Zelda or Pokemon type stuff), Final Fantasy VII/X stuff would be strongest in a 24 hour match. Cloud for instance is definitely weakest in a 12 hour night match as opposed to either a day match or 24 hour match.

From: PartOfYourWorld | #752
Luckily, it still has the night advantage against RE4 and a questionable semifinal opponent - GSC or Zelda may simply not have the intrinsic strength to take FFX down.


I disagree about the night match being "lucky" (in fact, I think that's RE4's best chance at pulling random wonkiness), but I agree that GSC/WW/MM probably aren't strong enough to beat FFX in the 24 hour semifinal match. Unless GSC gets there and gets bandwagoned.

From: KamikazePotato | #859
Yeah, but it's one thing to understand it and another thing to see it. This is the third match in a row that the night vote is going to keep FFX from looking like a flop.


Man, KP was sure trying to push this propaganda hardcore!

From: transience | #910
and now KP is Biolizarding all over the place because Golden Sun is losing to FFX. brilliant.


What does Biolizarding mean? I don't recall really noting Biolizard posts.
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creativename | Posted 12/11/2010 6:57:23 AM | message detail

From: Advokaiser | #1102
Could KOTOR break 40% on FFIX?


I'd be surprised if it didn't. Should get low to mid 40's.
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Advokaiser | Posted 12/11/2010 7:01:12 AM | message detail
This is the only match where I really don't know what to put in my oracle.

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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/11/2010 7:05:35 AM | message detail

From: creativename | #221
What does Biolizarding mean? I don't recall really noting Biolizard posts.


fanboy anger when one of your favorite games looks bad in a popularity contest.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/11/2010 7:06:24 AM | message detail
Well it looks like FFX ended up being pretty normal, nothing to see here.

Also that GameSpot poll had very few votes, was in 2008 and was on the Wii board, if SSBB didn't win big I would've been surprised.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 12/11/2010 7:09:10 AM | message detail

From: Advokaiser | #222
Hey guys, I have little information on the next match, but...

Could KOTOR break 40% on FFIX?


Well yeah, since KOTOR is beating FFIX!
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Advokaiser | Posted 12/11/2010 7:29:18 AM | message detail
Well yeah, since KOTOR is beating FFIX!

Okay. I'll officially stop asking for information on B8.

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Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/11/2010 7:43:38 AM | message detail
If you honestly think brawl is gonna win gotd then think again. Melée is the favourite and will win comfortably brawl wil get sffd and brawl is overrated here anyway it's had no strong games to compete with so far. Can't believe ssb Allen picked that mm pick he obviously fears ffx may lose to mm so picked weak picture. I submitted a few pics the sotc pic is mine although strangely I did s better one with flying colossos.
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695924 | Posted 12/11/2010 7:50:43 AM | message detail
Lol FFX.
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Xuxon | Posted 12/11/2010 7:52:05 AM | message detail
no way, that SotC pic is great. at least alongside the MGS4 one. they go together really well.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/11/2010 7:59:19 AM | message detail
Match CVI: (3) Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic vs. (2) Final Fantasy IX

Last Round

Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic – 60.63%
Fire Emblem – 39.37%

Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 – 31.13%
Final Fantasy IX – 68.87%

Analysis

Before the contest some people were hyping that KotOR had a chance against Final Fantasy IX and while I didn’t expect Final Fantasy IX to win big I don’t see KotOR pulling off the upset. After two rounds I still don’t see KotOR pulling off the upset. Sure Final Fantasy IX has had two weak opponents, but it isn’t like KotOR was putting up decent numbers against its competition.

You could argue that since KotOR has the day vote for once in this match and while the game will look better than usual I don’t expect it to put Final Fantasy IX into any danger. Before coming face to face with Final Fantasy VIII the game wasn’t half bad against Ocarina of Time and while KotOR put up decent numbers against Diablo II and Halo personally it doesn’t feel the same.

As much as we didn’t want a Final Fantasy X vs. Final Fantasy IX match it looks like that is what we’re going to end up with. Too bad this match is on a Saturday I wanted to see if KotOR could make some cuts during the ASV. I don’t see Final Fantasy IX breaking 60%, especially since this is a day match, but it should end up winning rather comfortably.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Final Fantasy IX > Star Wars: KotOR

charmander6000’s Prediction: Final Fantasy IX wins, 56.73% - 43.27%

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Haste_2 | Posted 12/11/2010 8:05:39 AM | message detail
FFX is past 65% now? Daaaaaaaaang. It went from likely losing to RE4 to still being a good contender to win it all again. GTA:SA is expected 32% against FFX, compared to Vice City's 34.5% against Re4.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/11/2010 8:08:07 AM | message detail
Oh man, I'm just off the leaderboard after KH/KH2. Awesome. Too bad the next debatable match is Portal/ME and I took ME. But Majora's Mask will probably shoot me up to the leaderboard when it ghetto stomps G/S/C
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/11/2010 8:08:55 AM | message detail

From: Haste_2 | #234
FFX is past 65% now? Daaaaaaaaang. It went from likely losing to RE4 to still being a good contender to win it all again. GTA:SA is expected 32% against FFX, compared to Vice City's 34.5% against Re4.


That still leaves RE4 in the running, since VC > SA.
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Advokaiser | Posted 12/11/2010 8:13:08 AM | message detail
That still leaves RE4 in the running, since VC > SA.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1831

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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/11/2010 8:13:39 AM | message detail
Have we ever figured out an order for the GTA games? I think they get progressively weaker myself(3 > VC > SA > 4), but I don't know if we have any solid info one way or the other.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/11/2010 8:14:35 AM | message detail
Ok, I know I definitely wouldn't take SA over GTA3 >_>
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/11/2010 8:16:04 AM | message detail
VC > 3 > SA > 4

That poll is extremely old and took place shortly after SA came out. Re run it and VC will take the top.
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abdou | Posted 12/11/2010 8:16:40 AM | message detail
GTAIII is probably the strongest due to some "respect" votes and GTAIV is the weakest because lots of people flat out hate that game

SA/VC should be very close , either way RE4 has a great shot at FFX.
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Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/11/2010 8:16:53 AM | message detail

From: Xuxon | #232
no way, that SotC pic is great. at least alongside the MGS4 one. they go together really well.


thanks but i did a few more and i did MM link one Fierce deity. Can't beleive no link picture was chosen. I still believe MM has a shot. Believe.

to win it all again

you mean beat re4 right? FFx is getting buttstomped inthe final,.this is actually poor perforamnce..ESPECIALLY against another Jrpg. FFIX will get over 45% against FFX.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/11/2010 8:21:44 AM | message detail

From: Assassin_Thane | #242
thanks but i did a few more and i did MM link one Fierce deity. Can't beleive no link picture was chosen. I still believe MM has a shot. Believe.

to win it all again

you mean beat re4 right? FFx is getting buttstomped inthe final,.this is actually poor perforamnce..ESPECIALLY against another Jrpg. FFIX will get over 45% against FFX.


SFF

FFX will break 60%
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TF2beatsBatman | Posted 12/11/2010 8:25:25 AM | message detail

From: Advokaiser | #237
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1831


I don't think this translates very well into contest strength.

If I'm doing these stats correctly, it seems like they are about equal
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Advokaiser | Posted 12/11/2010 8:25:39 AM | message detail
VC > 3 > SA > 4

That poll is extremely old and took place shortly after SA came out. Re run it and VC will take the top.



If we re-runned it I think the order would be SA >>>>>> VC > III >>>> IV >>>>>>> 1 & 2

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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/11/2010 8:34:30 AM | message detail

From: Advokaiser | #243
If we re-runned it I think the order would be SA >>>>>> VC > III >>>> IV >>>>>>> 1 & 2


If SA is that much stronger than 3, that would put Golden Sun pretty damn close to Half-Life 2/Metroid Prime strength. And I refuse to believe that!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/11/2010 8:36:39 AM | message detail
SA=3>=VC>4

The first three are probably equal, but Vice City's showing against Silent Hill 2 was the worst result any of the GTA games had this contest so I can't in good faith put it equal to the other two. 4 is definitely gonna be the weakest.

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695924 | Posted 12/11/2010 8:38:13 AM | message detail
I find it hard to believe VC is stronger than SA. Sure Tommy is stronger than CJ, but that's because of the fact that CJ isn't very presentable not to mention they never even get his picture right >_>

Hop over to the PS2 top 10, SA is still up there. The GTA fanbase moves onto the new and better game.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/11/2010 8:38:47 AM | message detail
CJ isn't very presentable

RACIST

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695924 | Posted 12/11/2010 8:39:17 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #249
CJ isn't very presentable

RACISTFAQS


Fixed >_>
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