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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 969

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TRE Public Account | Posted 12/9/2010 9:14:07 AM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
136----1------------100.00
135----0------------0.00
134----5------------100.00
133----11----------100.00
132----11----------100.00
131----15----------100.00
130----26----------92.31
129----37----------97.30
128----80----------92.50
127----93----------95.70
126----152--------95.39
125----201--------92.54
124----153--------92.81
123----192--------90.63
122----169--------85.80
121----206--------87.38
120----247--------85.43
119----269--------81.41
118----280--------82.86
117----308--------80.84
116----305--------79.67
115----331--------76.44
114----339--------74.34
113----365--------78.63
112----358--------68.72
111----388--------73.71
110----407--------70.76
109----417--------67.63
108----481--------65.28
107----467--------67.02
106----461--------62.91
105----441--------58.50
104----470--------63.62
103----496--------54.44
102----501--------58.08
101----507--------53.45
100----494--------48.79
99------533--------51.59
98------557--------50.27
97------559--------51.34
96------591--------45.85
95------638--------46.55
94------596--------40.60
93------637--------44.27
92------652--------38.65
91------646--------40.56
90------633--------38.23
89------607--------35.58
88------662--------35.95
87------640--------33.75
86------649--------36.36
85------650--------32.62
84------710--------33.94
83------685--------33.43
82------668--------28.44
81------648--------30.40
80------661--------28.44
79------611--------27.50
78------593--------24.45
77------617--------24.47
76------582--------25.09
75------557--------28.01
74------523--------29.25
73------479--------25.05
72------484--------27.89
71------454--------22.91
70------419--------23.63
69------393--------26.46
68------333--------21.32
67------297--------28.28
66------321--------19.63
65------269--------20.45
64------237--------18.57
63------220--------19.55
62------190--------15.79
61------170--------20.00
60------143--------23.78
59------110--------14.55
58------107--------17.76
57------112--------19.64
56------71----------12.68
55------79----------16.46
54------79----------17.72
53------44----------15.91
52------45----------13.33
51------39----------23.08
50------47----------14.89
49------36----------13.89
48------15----------13.33
47------24----------16.67
46------22----------13.64
45------14----------7.14
44------10----------20.00
43------13----------15.38
42------6------------0.00
41------6------------16.67
40------9------------0.00
39------4------------0.00
38------14----------7.14
37------5------------40.00
36------6------------16.67
35------8------------0.00
34------7------------14.29
33------5------------0.00
32------3------------33.33
31------4------------0.00
30------4------------0.00
29------3------------0.00
28------3------------0.00
27------3------------0.00
26------4------------0.00
25------3------------33.33
24------4------------0.00
23------4------------50.00
22------5------------0.00
21------4------------25.00

3--------15----------13.33


Max score: 144
Omitted scores got it wrong.

The prediction percentage isn't bad but I expected more from SSBM. The Gurus had 99.61% support for SSBM making it out of Round 3 which is 55.86 percentage points higher than the casual bracket maker. Even some brackets in the Top 100 got this match wrong. Still the -21s and better managed to stay aboe 90 and it's a fairly normal chart.

1 person fell off the Top 50. EmpPlayer did not have SSBM winning this match.
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/9/2010 9:14:40 AM | message detail

From: Advokaiser | #346
Would you take CoD4 over Mario Galaxy?
Would you take Mario Galaxy over DPP?


No.
Yes.

Doesn't provide any answer actually. But I'd obviously take DPP over CoD4.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2010 9:14:43 AM | message detail

From: Advokaiser | #349
Pre-contest I thought Galaxy > SM64

>___>


As it should be.
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Denzokuken | Posted 12/9/2010 9:15:15 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3475
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 12/9/2010 9:15:26 AM | message detail

From: fyrael | #350
Dang, who made that match pic and what do they have against Brawl?
Personally, I'd love to have seen the effects of a Brawl pic with Snake in it.


Save that for the Melee match. :P
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The Don Makaveli | Posted 12/9/2010 9:16:42 AM | message detail
If you think that SFF isn't much more relevant to Pokemon vs SSB than it is to COD vs SSB then you are kidding yourself. Brawl is looking good, and I expect it to beat Melee, but the results here are hardly the writing on the wall.
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2010 9:17:24 AM | message detail
15 minute lower half stats!

Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 50.00%
Pokemon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum – 29.02%
Metroid Fusion – 26.09%
Valkyria Chronicles – 23.56%
Disgaea: Hour of Darkness – 22.42%
Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance – 20.44%
Mario Kart DS – 16.74%
WWF No Mercy – 11.56%

Poor No Mercy.

But if Melee 60/40s Brawl, it should at least finish above Guitar Hero II!
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Gooper Blooper | Posted 12/9/2010 9:18:33 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3475

lol 4-ways? Galaxy looks okay this year.

I've been on the fence about this Smash vs. Smash thing all the way through, leaning towards Melee with time. My bracket says Brawl but I'm gonna go Melee in my Battle Challenge (not like that matters, though, I lost my streak twice last round).

Whatever happens in that match, I'd love a close back-and-forth instead of a shutout.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 12/9/2010 9:19:02 AM | message detail

From: The Don Makaveli | #356
If you think that SFF isn't much more relevant to Pokemon vs SSB than it is to COD vs SSB then you are kidding yourself. Brawl is looking good, and I expect it to beat Melee, but the results here are hardly the writing on the wall.


Oh, nobody's saying that. Writing on the wall would be a tripling. This? This is Brawl stating loud and clear that it's not gonna roll over in pure strength to Melee. If Melee wants the win, it will have to SFF Brawl, not be stronger indirectly.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 12/9/2010 9:20:09 AM | message detail
Go Brawl!
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2010 9:20:48 AM | message detail

From: Gooper Blooper | #358
lol 4-ways? Galaxy looks okay this year.


That's the problem.

Galaxy looks "okay." Less than 60% on R/S/E wasn't great.

Twilight Princess is going to make it look really, really bad tomorrow though.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 12/9/2010 9:21:35 AM | message detail
btw do people really see Melee/Brawl being an SFF fest? =/

It seems to be regarded as an even contest between the two. It's not like Mario/Samus where you had the company's mascot going against the mascot of a far less-popular series.
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2010 9:23:22 AM | message detail
Melee/Brawl will only be an SFF fest if there's a game the fanbase clearly prefers over the other.

I don't really see that there is one though.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 12/9/2010 9:24:31 AM | message detail
That's what I thought. It seems like one match where the two share a fanbase that won't involve significant SFF.
XIII_rocks | Posted 12/9/2010 9:25:27 AM | message detail
But eh, who knows. I'm pulling for Brawl because I believe it's genuinely the superior game and because I have it in my bracket, though Melee winning wouldn't be such a travesty.

I agree that it will hopefully be a nail-biter though.
Advokaiser | Posted 12/9/2010 9:26:00 AM | message detail
I'd love to see a 50.01% win for Brawl at the last minute.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2010 9:27:08 AM | message detail
Also, since I'm sure some people are wondering what stats would look like assuming Melee and Brawl are even:

Super Smash Bros. Melee – 50.00%
Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 50.00%
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare – 30.64%
Pokemon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum - 29.02%
The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind – 28.61%
Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos – 28.35%
Perfect Dark – 27.31%
Metroid Fusion - 26.09%
Valkyria Chronicles - 23.56%
The Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time – 22.72%
Disgaea: Hour of Darkness - 22.42%
Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance - 20.44%
Conker’s Bad Fur Day – 19.70%
Mario Kart DS - 16.74%
Guitar Hero II – 12.84%
WWF No Mercy - 11.56%
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Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/9/2010 9:27:08 AM | message detail
I sort of hope none of the intra-series matches are epics - it might mean less of SBAllen setting up SFF matches next character battle, which are rarely much good.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2010 9:27:37 AM | message detail

From: Kotetsu534 | #368
I sort of hope none of the intra-series matches are epics - it might mean less of SBAllen setting up SFF matches next character battle, which are rarely much good.


If he doesn't realize it at this point, there's not much hope.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 12/9/2010 9:28:52 AM | message detail
True, but that's ages away. I want a nail-biter next week. It's great when you get top-tier games/characters going at it. The end of Snake/Sephiroth 2006 (in the BR) was amazing fun.
Dr_Football | Posted 12/9/2010 9:30:48 AM | message detail
What would Brawl need to get on Melee to push No Mercy past Guitar Hero?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2010 9:33:46 AM | message detail

From: Dr_Football | #371
What would Brawl need to get on Melee to push No Mercy past Guitar Hero?


At this point, 55%~
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EvilNcr | Posted 12/9/2010 9:34:37 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
EvilNcr | Posted 12/9/2010 9:35:09 AM | message detail
Woah. Wait a second.
There was a guy on the leaderboard ready to crack the top 10 with 70 000+ streak. Lemoncake something IIRC.
And he's gone?! LMAO! How do you go that far and predict CoD4 over Melee?!
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abdou | Posted 12/9/2010 9:38:45 AM | message detail
maybe he forgot to pick a game or mistakenly chose COD4? >_<
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 12/9/2010 9:41:12 AM | message detail

From: EvilNcr | #374
Woah. Wait a second.
There was a guy on the leaderboard ready to crack the top 10 with 70 000+ streak. Lemoncake something IIRC.
And he's gone?! LMAO! How do you go that far and predict CoD4 over Melee?!


Yeah, I noticed that too. Makes me wonder on which match AfroSquirrel is going to blow his streak.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2010 9:42:29 AM | message detail
Huh, two 73%+ updates for Brawl in a row.

This may get ugly.
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Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/9/2010 9:43:43 AM | message detail

From: XIII_rocks | #364
That's what I thought. It seems like one match where the two share a fanbase that won't involve significant SFF.


Ocarina of Time is the only nintendo game at this point with "significant" SFF power. Rest of them leech off each other around the same %.
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creativename | Posted 12/9/2010 9:43:52 AM | message detail
Some x-stats work for this match - CoD4 went from 38.24% on Brawl to 31% once SMG was removed. SMG didn't seem to SFF Pokemon, but Brawl did seem to SFF SMG.

DPP got 45.11% on SMG. Working through Brawl/SMG, that gives you DPP getting 24.79% on Brawl. But if you boost for the Brawl/SMG LFF, you get 24.79*38.24/31=30.58%. Which would predict Brawl to get 69.42% in this match, and would assume that Brawl would SFF DPP the same ratio it SFFed Galaxy.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/9/2010 9:50:21 AM | message detail
augh damnit Brawl, you just had to do good/make Pokemon look bad.
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paulg235 | Posted 12/9/2010 9:51:00 AM | message detail
What % does Brawl need in order to make No Mercy fail to get 10% in the xstats?
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SuperWhiscash | Posted 12/9/2010 9:51:12 AM | message detail
ok Brawl you can slow down now and let Platinum be third in divisional x-stats when you win next round plz
(unless this means you're going to assure it by 60/40ing Melee next round, which is cool with me too)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2010 9:52:12 AM | message detail

From: paulg235 | #381
What % does Brawl need in order to make No Mercy fail to get 10% in the xstats?


Depends on who the winner is, obviously!

If you assume it's Melee, then 56.75% would put No Mercy at exactly 10% in the final stats.
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Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/9/2010 9:55:42 AM | message detail

From: EvilNcr | #352
No.
Yes.

Doesn't provide any answer actually. But I'd obviously take DPP over CoD4.


Why? COD4 imo is stronger than GTAIV which barely lost to DPP.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2010 9:57:46 AM | message detail
GTA IV barely lost to R/S/E, which should be weaker than D/P/P.
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Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/9/2010 9:58:26 AM | message detail
oh yeah it was other pokemon game. even still this match has a lot of sff in it. brawl/melee is still toss up.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 12/9/2010 9:59:07 AM | message detail
LOL GameCube, Brawl's gonna 51/49 Melee.
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Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/9/2010 10:02:16 AM | message detail
brawl has had nothing but nintendo games to play with and random weak ps3 rpg. melee has had tough games like cod4 and morrowind.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2010 10:02:52 AM | message detail
Man, Brawl's jumped up nearly a full percent in the last 45 minutes.
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Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/9/2010 10:21:33 AM | message detail
whatever the outcome is i think we can safely say ffx is not winning this contest. which is good for everybody(except allen and ffx fanboys)
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/9/2010 10:22:32 AM | message detail
Brawl is crushing NA pretty good.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2010 10:23:55 AM | message detail

From: Assassin_Thane | #390
whatever the outcome is i think we can safely say ffx is not winning this contest. which is good for everybody(except allen and ffx fanboys)


'whoops'
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/9/2010 10:24:08 AM | message detail
Has anyone taken into account that we're basing Melee off of three night matches and Brawl off of three day matches?

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Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/9/2010 10:25:53 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #393
Has anyone taken into account that we're basing Melee off of three night matches and Brawl off of three day matches?


melee is still slight favourite, so yes people have taken this into account.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2010 10:25:55 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #393
Has anyone taken into account that we're basing Melee off of three night matches and Brawl off of three day matches?


Nope, totally ignoring it!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/9/2010 10:27:19 AM | message detail
I have a feeling Brawl is going to do better in Europe.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/9/2010 10:34:25 AM | message detail
*votes, checks results*

DAT BRAWL

and LOL Pokemon. Fierce Deity Link coming for dat ass.
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abdou | Posted 12/9/2010 10:35:43 AM | message detail
I hate it when people quote someone on my ignore list.

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creativename | Posted 12/9/2010 10:42:10 AM | message detail
Small pic advantage for Smash here probably. The Smash pic has two popular characters very large, the Pokemon pic is just...what?

The Galaxy/TP pic is pretty good. Link looks awesome there.

KH vs. KH2....can't even tell which pic is for which game! The "II" is almost completely hidden.

From: Lieutenant Kettch | #1606
Yeah, it's going to be almost the exact percentage actually. 69.32% for Brawl during the first 12 hours on CoD4.


Oh wow, that's amazing. Good catch! If someone had predicted 69.32%, they would've had the #1 Oracle!

Every now and then 4-ways are eerily accurate, on top of being laughably wrong other times.

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #1957
and LOL Pokemon. Fierce Deity Link coming for dat ass.


Yes! FDL absolutely needs to be in the match pic for Majora's Mask. If Bacon chooses a picture without FDL, that would suck. No angry moon crap please, let's bring the big guns out! Link>>>grumpy moon.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2010 10:43:34 AM | message detail

From: creativename | #399
KH vs. KH2....can't even tell which pic is for which game!


It's pretty easy to tell.

Awesome looking Sora = KH2

Goofy looking Sora = KH1

You don't even need the titles as long as you know this!
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