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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 969

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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/8/2010 9:08:27 PM | message detail
This is more CoD4 bombing than Melee impressing, considering CoD4 is on pace to be behind Morrowind.

Not that this speaks badly of Melee at all, of course.
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Wylvane
Skarmory60 is a horrible user.
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tgs2 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:08:42 PM | message detail
1k votes at freeze lol

Brawl's turn to one up this somehow.
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Hochimihnister | Posted 12/8/2010 9:08:49 PM | message detail
Tomorrow Brawl is only going to 64-36 Pokemon or something
695924 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:09:59 PM | message detail
I don't see anything that can beat Melee at this point.
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lol opinions
Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/8/2010 9:10:25 PM | message detail
If Brawl doesn't triple Pokemon DPP at minimum, Melee's got this locked up.
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Wylvane
GuessMyUserName is a horrible user.
red sox 777 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:10:45 PM | message detail
Not a big dropoff there. Melee has a good chance of holding the 70% tonight.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
charmander6000 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:11:06 PM | message detail
Still a tripling. Sad thing is this is becoming more lol CoD4 than OMG Melee.



The winner of Melee/Brawl will be the game with the most Link in it.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 128/142 Today's Matches: SSBM & SSBB
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/8/2010 9:11:23 PM | message detail
CoD4 isn't a night game, so Melee shouldn't drop off as much as it does usually.

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DFF
transience | Posted 12/8/2010 9:12:01 PM | message detail
I mention this in my Brawl Crew writeup (and I wrote it before seeing this result so it isn't revisionist history), but I'd easily take DPP over COD4 at this point. Brawl doesn't have to outdo Melee's performance here to look good.

of course, these performances aren't really going to matter since that's a match based completely on which side the fanbase sides with.
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xyzzy
pjbasis | Posted 12/8/2010 9:12:36 PM | message detail
DPP 65-35 CoD4
charmander6000 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:13:06 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Least Impressive Day Winners
1. Persona 4 (R2) – 23368
2. Deus Ex (R1) – 25117
3. Morrowind (R1) – 25522
4. Persona 4 (R1) – 25820
5. Half-Life 2 (R2) – 26337
6. CoD4: Modern Warfare (R2) – 26548
7. Marvel vs. Capcom 2 (R1) – 26911
8. Shadow of the Colossus (R2) – 26975
9. Assassin’s Creed II (R1) – 27315
10. Half-Life 2 (R3) – 27433

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 128/142 Today's Matches: SSBM & SSBB
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/8/2010 9:13:17 PM | message detail
CoD4 is weak in Europe based on past matches, so Melee shouldn't drop too much overnight.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/8/2010 9:13:44 PM | message detail
At this point, Melee had 73.45% on Morrowind.

This is CoD4 bombing, which makes me wonder just how badly Pokemon DPP is going to do tomorrow. Brawl has to blow the **** out of Pokemon DPP to have a chance.

Of course, I can see Brawl doing just that.
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Wylvane
Chrono1219 is a horrible user.
kinsho3 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:15:01 PM | message detail

From: Glenn_and_Toad | #147
Also, let's please please pleas try not to make snap judgments about melee at midnight. How melee does against cod has almost no relevance whatsoever to its match with brawl.


MELEE HAS THIS CONTEST IN THE BAG! NEXT!
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
Dr. Football, you are the man! I'll take you down next contest though...
kinsho3 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:15:33 PM | message detail
Also, serious question here, folks. Is Kingdom Hearts 2 now the favorite in its match?
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
Dr. Football, you are the man! I'll take you down next contest though...
GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/8/2010 9:15:43 PM | message detail
Melee is holding on to that tripling for a loooong time
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Oracle contest - 15th
Today's pick: Melee - 67.53% Status: LOL Call of Duty
charmander6000 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:16:04 PM | message detail
This is CoD4 bombing, which makes me wonder just how badly Pokemon DPP is going to do tomorrow. Brawl has to blow the **** out of Pokemon DPP to have a chance.

I think this match shows that we can't really compare the CoD4 that we saw last year.

With that said Brawl needs to get at least in the high 60s.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 128/142 Today's Matches: SSBM & SSBB
GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/8/2010 9:16:25 PM | message detail
Is Kingdom Hearts 2 now the favorite in its match?

why would this result make it the faovrite?
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Oracle contest - 15th
Today's pick: Melee - 67.53% Status: LOL Call of Duty
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/8/2010 9:17:12 PM | message detail
I think this match is definitely important. You can't just go 'doesn't matter, fanbase will decide it' if one game is already looking obviously stronger than the other.

Holding off judgement until DPP, but this is a very good result for Melee.

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DFF
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/8/2010 9:17:34 PM | message detail

From: GrapefruitKing | #268
Is Kingdom Hearts 2 now the favorite in its match?

why would this result make it the faovrite?


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4148

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DFF
kinsho3 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:18:46 PM | message detail

From: GrapefruitKing | #188
Is Kingdom Hearts 2 now the favorite in its match?

why would this result make it the faovrite?


If the CoD series is really this weak, Kingdom Hearts' doubling over MW2 isn't really as impressive as some people might have thought it to be.
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
Dr. Football, you are the man! I'll take you down next contest though...
GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/8/2010 9:18:52 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
transience | Posted 12/8/2010 9:19:06 PM | message detail
Brawl would be doing similar numbers here, I imagine. I haven't seen anything to suggest that Melee is far ahead of Brawl or anything. I'd agree with you if that were the case, but Melee's two big performances are based on its opponent being casual trash on this website. I hate to discredit it, but when you look at what Rock Band 2 and Call of Duty has done this contest, it's tough to see it any other way.
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xyzzy
GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/8/2010 9:19:34 PM | message detail
oh, I thoght KHII had doubled MW2
'woops'
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Oracle contest - 15th
Today's pick: Melee - 67.53% Status: LOL Call of Duty
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/8/2010 9:26:47 PM | message detail
Assuming CoD4 = Cod:MW2

SSBM gets 62.54% on KH1.
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transience | Posted 12/8/2010 9:28:29 PM | message detail
let this normalize before making that call.

...speaking of which, what'd it get in the ffx matchup
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xyzzy
Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/8/2010 9:31:08 PM | message detail
...speaking of which, what'd it get in the ffx matchup

59.88%
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"Let me believe what you've always believed! That living is wonderful!"
"Thank you so much... Thank you for loving me."
Big Bob | Posted 12/8/2010 9:37:17 PM | message detail
So is this "Morrowind is as strong as CoD" or "CoD is as weak as Morrowind"?

Then again, we just saw Oblivion not look that great against Paper Mario...
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redrocket | Posted 12/8/2010 9:44:15 PM | message detail
Paper Mario is strong.

It's a Nintendo RPG starring freaking Mario.

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 12/8/2010 9:45:05 PM | message detail
A beloved Nintendo game beating the crap out of a game only some casual FPS fans on this site will vote for.

Surprise surprise.
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L O S T
X360 GT: VinnyMendoza90 Currently playing: Perfect Dark
transience | Posted 12/8/2010 9:45:35 PM | message detail
looks like COD4 may end up outdoing Morrowind here. let's wait a minute before posting this...

...hm, 75% update. nevermind!
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 12/8/2010 9:49:13 PM | message detail
Talking about Nintendo RPGs with Mario, what games would you guys consider the biggest snubs of the contest now? Super Paper Mario and maybe even the Mario & Luigi games have the rights to be contenders for that title.
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<3 Epona.
Heart Epona.
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/8/2010 9:50:16 PM | message detail
Golden Sun: The Lost Age.

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DFF
Big Bob | Posted 12/8/2010 10:14:29 PM | message detail
Castle Crashers / Shadow Complex (more DLC representation!)
Burnout Paradise could be the strongest non-Mario racing game here. Yes, maybe even over F-Zero.
Sonic 2006 just to see how weak it could possibly be.
Star Wars: Rogue Squadron II could be decent
Could a DDR game beat Wii Sports?
Dead or Alive Xtreme Beach Volleyball for the lulz
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Hochimihnister | Posted 12/8/2010 10:14:42 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy X-2

It destroyed KOTOR in that GOTY poll and almost beat Wind Waker
HaRRicH | Posted 12/8/2010 10:33:01 PM | message detail
FFX-2 was the original CC:FF7, and it's not like it gave any real competition to FF12.
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EPONA EPONA Epona Epona Epona EPONA EPONA
Epona EPONA EPONA Epona EPONA EPONA Epona
Ultimaphazon | Posted 12/8/2010 10:46:54 PM | message detail
*votes*

O_O
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2010 10:50:27 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #209
Is there some way to spin Skies of Arcadia as the strongest non-FF RPG

Pokemon RBY
Chrono Trigger
Pokemon GSC
Super Mario RPG
Pokemon DPP
Pokemon RSE
Paper Mario
Paper Mario 2
Tales of Symphonia
Chrono Cross
Xenogears

There's probably a lot of others too, but that's for starters.


I meant in this contest, guys! And I said spin, darn it! Spin!

And yikes, CoD4 sucks. Weaker than Morrowind and WC3 by a decent margin? Melee/Halo multiplayer SFF confirmed.

But I said in my Crew writeup that if Melee surpasses the Morrowind percentage, that would say a heck of a lot more about CoD4 than it would about Melee.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2010 10:57:30 PM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | GoW1 | HL2 | Votes
0:05 | 44.61% | 55.39% | 668
1:00 | 44.16% | 55.84% | 6194
2:00 | 45.22% | 54.78% | 5144
3:00 | 45.39% | 54.61% | 4809
4:00 | 45.01% | 54.99% | 4934
5:00 | 45.63% | 54.37% | 4714
6:00 | 45.01% | 54.99% | 4650
7:00 | 47.54% | 52.46% | 4255
8:00 | 46.14% | 53.86% | 3819
9:00 | 44.67% | 55.33% | 3421
10:00 | 46.39% | 53.61% | 3162
11:00 | 47.28% | 52.72% | 2942
12:00 | 47.43% | 52.57% | 2414

A tale of two halves here. HL2 gets 54.5-56% for the first half, and then it gets 52.5-53.5% for the second half.

Lower Half Stats

Half-Life 2 – 50.00%
God of War – 45.63%
Tales of Symphonia – 44.30%
Grand Theft Auto III – 43.83%
Resident Evil 5 – 42.37%
LittleBigPlanet – 33.33%
Left 4 Dead – 31.68%
Left 4 Dead 2 – 25.52%
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2010 11:00:19 PM | message detail
And for kicks, some preliminary upper half stats!

Super Smash Bros. Melee – 50.00%
The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind – 28.61%
Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos – 28.35%
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare – 27.11%
Perfect Dark – 24.17%
The Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time – 20.10%
Conker’s Bad Fur Day – 17.43%
Guitar Hero II – 12.84%

This is probably going to change quite a bit since Melee's already starting to drop off, but man.
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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/8/2010 11:12:50 PM | message detail
Damn, I missed Leonhart's previous stats... I really don't want to have to go look through for those again.

(Also, lol GHII still being in last)
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pjbasis | Posted 12/8/2010 11:21:46 PM | message detail
This could get under 70.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/8/2010 11:24:36 PM | message detail
Not happening here. Melee got 71.39% against Morrowind, but that was with Melee getting just 62.13% in Europe. Since CoD4 is also bad in Europe, Melee currently has 67% in Europe (though that could change). As a result of Melee doing better in Europe this time around, Melee shouldn't drop as much through the rest of the night compared to last round's match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 12/9/2010 12:25:55 AM | message detail
CoD4 actually held Melee to under 70% from the 2-3 hour, so it's possible. Morrowind let Melee get over 71% on it in that same hour
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/9/2010 1:12:02 AM | message detail
I suppose Asia could be blamed for that, because there's a big difference between Asia in Melee's last match compared to this one.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4141&region=ASI
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4169&region=ASI

Melee had no problem maintaining over 70% on Morrowind in Asia, but now Melee is losing to CoD4 in Asia in this match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
Assassin_Thane | Posted 12/9/2010 1:25:55 AM | message detail
Why does melée keep having night matches. Europe hates melée. People will not see the strength of melée until day match whenever that is.
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Pizzaknight | Posted 12/9/2010 3:17:43 AM | message detail
Leonheart, I thought HL2 ended up with 54.37%, or am I reading your chart wrong?
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/9/2010 4:33:37 AM | message detail
Lol RE5 breaking 40% on HL2.

HL2 you're doomed. Can't even break 60% on a disliked RE game after 2009 games have been bombing.
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Currently Playing - Zelda: Majora's Mask
Next Games Up - Super Smash Bros. Melee, Resident Evil 4, Okami
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/9/2010 4:36:58 AM | message detail
Whenever LMS says something that I agree with I get horribly nervous.

But whenever he says something that I disagree with, I feel exceptionally confident.

HL2 > FO3, confirmed.
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"I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer
See You Space Cowboy
charmander6000 | Posted 12/9/2010 5:05:06 AM | message detail
Match CII: (3) Pokemon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum vs. (2) Super Smash Bros. Brawl

Last Round

Pokemon Diamond/Pearl/Platinum – 64.79%
Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance – 35.21%

Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 76.44%
Valkyria Chronicles – 23.56%

Analysis

One more match stopping the collision course of the two Smash games and like all the others SBAllen had made sure that all of the games were well below the two giants. Pokemon is usually pretty good at resisting SFF from other Nintendo titles since they are found on handhelds, but the Smash series may be an exception. Pokemon RBY held up pretty well against Ocarina of Time and defeated Metal Gear Solid yet lost to Final Fantasy X when Melee was added, of course it could just be because there were three Nintendo games, but it is a possibility to think about.

In the previous contest Call of Duty 4 was able to 60/40 Pokemon DP in the first round so given that this is a day match it should be expected that Brawl would get a higher percent than Melee did on Call of Duty 4. Well a lot has happened since that year. First Galaxy was in the poll and while Pokemon does avoid SFF pretty well it could be held back slightly by LFF. Pokemon Platinum was since released since that match which could bring a few more fans to the generation. We’ve also seen Call of Duty games perform terribly this contest. Overall I wouldn’t be surprised if Pokemon DPP was able to catch up.

I know SBAllen wanted to make sure that the Melee/Brawl match would happen, but he didn’t have to put games that make the first two division games feel like contest powerhouses. Then again he tried setting up Majora’s Mask and Wind Waker by putting Pokemon GSC in the middle. I expect Brawl to finish in the high 60s though should the game decide to SFF a Pokemon game breaking 70% is possible.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Brawl > Pokemon DPP

charmander6000’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Brawl wins, 67.97% - 32.03%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 128/142 Today's Matches: SSBM & SSBB