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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 968

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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/8/2010 4:04:18 AM | message detail
My "plug these gamse into the 2009 x-stats" feature! If you need an explanation please tell me.

If Halo 1 is held constant:

Uncharted 2 - Grand Theft Auto III (haha)
Halo 3 - Super Metroid
Ninja Gaiden - Paper Mario
Street Fighter IV - Super Mario Kart
Sonic Adventure 2 - Super Metroid (oh god no - how do you think this actually goes?)
Super Mario Sunshine - Star Fox 64 (how do you think this goes?)
The Legend of Dragoon - Pokemon DPP

If Street Fighter IV is held constant:

Uncharted 2 - Mass Effect
Halo: Combat Evolved - Donkey Kong Country

Looks like SFIV also got a boost, likely because of SSFIV and getting away from SSBB.
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Gr8CyberMonkey | Posted 12/8/2010 5:47:26 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=4167&type=2&seconds=300&max=0

That looks so ridiculous.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2010 6:15:31 AM | message detail
http://www.dotup.org/uploda/www.dotup.org1290191.jpg_fjCVkh9AOO4f7hGGpoNw/www.dotup.org1290191.jpg

So is it too late to switch our NRT FFVIII rep?

Also, Okami vs. GTA3: Who you got? Prime's not gonna finish too far off from HL2's percentage on GTA3.

Not really sure where the confidence in GoW is coming from. I'm a believer in ToS and all, but GoW needed a more decisive win than what it got there.

From: PartOfYourWorld | #340
and II has just been proven to be a good step below ACII, which I doubt most people would have anticipated before the contest.


...That was what I expected.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2010 6:16:11 AM | message detail
Also, yes, MM9 is now above DMC3 in the stats. Demon's Souls is less than a percent away, but it probably won't catch it.
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Haste_2 | Posted 12/8/2010 6:30:55 AM | message detail
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if God of War did about the same GTA3 because GTA3 supposedly had its best possible nostalgic picture last round, or something.... that would prove doom to Metroid Prime, though. Hopefully GTA3 is as weak or weaker than the other GTA games; THEN Prime just might be able to pull through.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2010 6:32:18 AM | message detail
What would HL2 need here to make you feel like it's the favorite going into that match with Prime?

Remember: Okami lost to Halo 2 and MGS3 in LOL 4-ways.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2010 6:32:29 AM | message detail
Got doubled by MGS3, I meant to say.
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MasterOfTheRKO | Posted 12/8/2010 6:39:55 AM | message detail
and didn't Prime lose to Vice City in those very same LOL 4-ways?
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transience | Posted 12/8/2010 6:41:53 AM | message detail
to be the favourite? it'd have to outdo Prime this round.
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xyzzy
FFI3_Lightning | Posted 12/8/2010 6:42:03 AM | message detail
people still use 4 ways? didn't sotc>mgs2 piss all over that crap. LMS sure likes to waste his time. you could use that time to make better match pics. I would but my photoshop is buggered. WTF is that Metroid pic.

Also SBBallen or whatever his name is, will be biased towards FFX in all of it's matches. no way he will use Tidus only pic.
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transience | Posted 12/8/2010 6:42:31 AM | message detail
eh, maybe that's a bit much. I dunno though, I'd have a hard time picking Okami over Symphonia.
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xyzzy
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/8/2010 6:49:09 AM | message detail
Okami > ToS sadly not happening.

I don't really know how to make match pics but I guess now is a better time to learn than never. I take it that I need a picture relating to the game and the game's logo in the pic?

I was thinking of randomly disadvantaging Prime by giving it an Other M pic against Half-Life 2. Badass Freeman against scared Samus, aw yeah.
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FFI3_Lightning | Posted 12/8/2010 7:10:24 AM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #362
Okami > ToS sadly not happening.

I don't really know how to make match pics but I guess now is a better time to learn than never. I take it that I need a picture relating to the game and the game's logo in the pic?

I was thinking of randomly disadvantaging Prime by giving it an Other M pic against Half-Life 2. Badass Freeman against scared Samus, aw yeah.


don't do that. I think prime will take HL2 in a day match anyway.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2010 7:12:45 AM | message detail

From: MasterOfTheRKO | #358
and didn't Prime lose to Vice City in those very same LOL 4-ways?


Yeah, there was a little game called Paper Mario in that poll, too.

I'm just throwing it out there. I'm not really sold on Okami's strength yet. Not saying it's weak, of course, but I'd struggle with picking it over GTA3, GTA's contest reputation or not. 3 looked the best to me this year.
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transience | Posted 12/8/2010 7:14:28 AM | message detail
3 only looked good because it faced Half-Life 2. nobody was calling it impressive after the LBP performance.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2010 7:16:02 AM | message detail
Eh, I thought the LBP performance was pretty good, relatively speaking. Better than the crap San Andreas and Vice City put up on weaker opponents, that's for sure.

Besides, unless Prime puts a whoopin' on HL2, we're going to end up with Okami and GTA3 close in the stats anyway...!
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695924 | Posted 12/8/2010 7:16:39 AM | message detail
I would take Okami > GTA3.

GTA3 didn't impress against LBP.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/8/2010 7:17:05 AM | message detail
Impressive showing for Okami here. Figured it would be over 60% for sure. MM9 over DMC3 is hilarious.

Still liking MP over HL2, but we'll see what happens today.
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transience | Posted 12/8/2010 7:17:26 AM | message detail
I'm not certain that LBP is any stronger than Ratchet and Clank. it probably is by a little, but not a lot.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 12/8/2010 7:19:13 AM | message detail
eh, I guess previous polls suggest that it is. I don't know, though, I feel like LBP is a game that came and went within months.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2010 7:19:41 AM | message detail
Well, you could probably set all three GTA games as equals and not really be that far off anyway.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2010 7:20:40 AM | message detail

From: transience | #370
eh, I guess previous polls suggest that it is. I don't know, though, I feel like LBP is a game that came and went within months.


I feel the same way. That's why I picked GTA3 to beat it without much concern.

The PS3 Ratchet games are definitely stronger than the PS2 ones though, that's for sure.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/8/2010 7:25:53 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour
Posted 12/8/2010 10:19:41 AM
message detail

Well, you could probably set all three GTA games as equals and not really be that far off anyway.


I think there's a big enough difference between VC at the top and SA at the bottom.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 12/8/2010 7:26:04 AM | message detail
Going by 4-way stats through MGS3, I would say HL2 needs to break 52.5% on God of War to be the favorite in a neutral match. Since Prime had Okami during the night though...maybe bump that up to 53%.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/8/2010 7:32:54 AM | message detail
Very much doable.

I mean come on, God of War is projected to get like 54% on Resident Evil 5, in a contest where 2009 games have been bombing left and right. Don't tell me that RE5 is somehow an exception.

RE5 being worth over 40% on HL2 is one stupid heck of a joke. At least it gives more credence to RE4 > FFX.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/8/2010 8:02:25 AM | message detail
Match C: (6) God of War vs. (2) Half-Life 2

Last Round

Tales of Symphonia – 48.54%
God of War – 51.46%

Grand Theft Auto III – 43.83%
Half-Life 2 – 56.17%

Analysis

There seems to be a lot of talk for an upset though personally I don’t see it happening. I know for a fact that a lot of people would have taken both Vice City and San Andreas over Grand Theft Auto III before the contest and since God of War defeated San Andreas while Half-Life 2 struggled to win over Grand Theft Auto III there should be a chance for an upset. Of course opinions change throughout the contest, but people shouldn’t be too relaxed about this match.

I’m not sure if it is due to the contest being called Game of the Decade, but it does seem that Grand Theft Auto III may be the strongest game of the series. In my opinion the game’s win over LittleBigPlanet was more impressive than what San Andreas and Vice City did to Dead Space and Silent Hill 2 respectively and while you could argue that Golden Sun is strong there is almost no excuse for the performance Vice City pulled against Resident Evil 4.

God of War seems to be the same game that we saw last contest though this time it was able to defeat Tales of Symphonia though it was rather unlucky that it ended up being stuck up against Tales of Symphonia during the night, it could have been much worse. Being stuck against familiar foes could be a bad thing since it is possible that the entire four-pack was overrated. For one thing Oblivion hasn’t looked the greatest and we already know what happened to San Andreas.

I can understand why very few people are going for the upset since I find it hard to believe that Half-Life 2 could lose, but at the same time I wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up losing. If we compare the two Left 4 Dead games Half-Life 2 should get around 65% though I believe that the original game is stronger so obviously the match will be closer. Personally I think the game will finish at around where Grand Theft Auto III finished.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Half-Life 2 > God of War

charmander6000’s Prediction: Half-Life 2 wins, 55.93% - 44.07%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 120/136 Today's Matches: MP & HL2
Master Moltar | Posted 12/8/2010 9:00:12 AM | message detail
God of War 30%

3
Half-Life 2 70%

7
TOTAL VOTES 10
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Moltar Status: 116 Points - Vote: Halo
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Oxbridge | Posted 12/8/2010 9:00:23 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted

God of War 16.67% 1
Half-Life 2 83.33% 5
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Congratulations to Dr_Football, the Guru champion for 2010.
charmander6000 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:00:29 AM | message detail
God of War 0% 0
Half-Life 2 100% 4
TOTAL VOTES 4

4th vote, pretty good.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 120/136 Today's Matches: MP & HL2
Biolizard28 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:00:33 AM | message detail
Bah gahd
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/8/2010 9:00:35 AM | message detail
God of War 50%

15
Half-Life 2 50%

15
TOTAL VOTES 30

Holy Jesus.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/8/2010 9:01:08 AM | message detail
GoW was leading there for a second. What happened?

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DFF
Advokaiser | Posted 12/8/2010 9:01:11 AM | message detail
God of War 42.11% 8
Half-Life 2 57.89% 11
TOTAL VOTES 19

So just when my computer doesn't lag, I hesitate on my vote. >.<

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charmander6000 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:02:06 AM | message detail
Metroid Prime 58.26%

Makes you wonder who thought MP wouldn't make it this far.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 120/136 Today's Matches: MP & HL2
Biolizard28 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:03:10 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #384
Metroid Prime 58.26%

Makes you wonder who thought MP wouldn't make it this far.


Mother fans

olololololololo
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Kamekguy | Posted 12/8/2010 9:04:57 AM | message detail
What, you DIDN'T think that hot new IP, Demon's Souls, wasn't going to crush this entire division with its new wave of fans and absolutely huge support base that it definitely has over a game that gets by on franchise name?

I'm shocked.
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hellfire104 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:05:01 AM | message detail
Wow. GOW got a terrible picture. It barely even has Kratos in it. Good lord.
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Point Total: 76/84. Guru Status: Alive(36)
My Bracket Says: Night: MM Day: MC
695924 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:06:10 AM | message detail
Kratos wasn't really flattering in GoW1. It's a good thing he isn't too visible.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 12/8/2010 9:06:25 AM | message detail
Not a bad start for HL2. I'd expect a strong early vote though, so we'll have to see how far it drops.
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Dr Football and Snake have won this round, but Sephiroth will rise again!
ZenOfThunder | Posted 12/8/2010 9:08:10 AM | message detail
http://kotaku.com/5709306/final-fantasy-viiis-other-main-character-joins-dissidia-duodecim

Laguna is in Dissidia 2! Now maybe he'll actually get in a contest...
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695924 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:08:52 AM | message detail

From: ZenOfThunder | #390
http://kotaku.com/5709306/final-fantasy-viiis-other-main-character-joins-dissidia-duodecim

Laguna is in Dissidia 2! Now maybe he'll actually get in a contest...


The actual main character of FFVIII?!?!?
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:10:48 AM | message detail
Make your time HL2 - Metroid Prime.
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Advokaiser | Posted 12/8/2010 9:13:09 AM | message detail
Question: Who was responsible for the MP picture of last round? Was it a MP hater?

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TRE Public Account | Posted 12/8/2010 9:13:09 AM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
128----1------------100.00
127----0------------0.00
126----5------------100.00
125----11----------100.00
124----11----------100.00
123----16----------100.00
122----31----------96.77
121----42----------97.62
120----88----------100.00
119----112--------99.11
118----163--------98.16
117----231--------97.84
116----179--------94.97
115----231--------97.40
114----193--------94.82
113----249--------93.17
112----285--------97.54
111----319--------91.22
110----350--------92.29
109----348--------92.53
108----373--------88.74
107----377--------90.98
106----394--------89.09
105----438--------91.10
104----475--------86.32
103----474--------88.19
102----497--------85.92
101----488--------82.17
100----519--------80.54
99------530--------82.83
98------519--------81.50
97------535--------75.51
96------532--------76.69
95------578--------73.53
94------600--------71.67
93------601--------68.22
92------644--------65.53
91------708--------67.94
90------673--------65.53
89------708--------65.25
88------726--------61.85
87------744--------58.47
86------700--------58.71
85------721--------55.48
84------776--------52.45
83------737--------50.20
82------786--------49.24
81------739--------46.55
80------796--------48.24
79------744--------44.49
78------725--------45.24
77------702--------42.17
76------735--------42.31
75------662--------41.54
74------643--------39.66
73------618--------38.83
72------579--------35.41
71------578--------36.51
70------518--------33.98
69------495--------34.95
68------449--------30.96
67------393--------34.35
66------398--------28.14
65------341--------28.74
64------264--------26.14
63------265--------25.28
62------242--------30.58
61------222--------23.87
60------189--------22.75
59------150--------27.33
58------135--------20.00
57------126--------18.25
56------94----------26.60
55------91----------15.38
54------91----------18.68
53------59----------11.86
52------48----------14.58
51------47----------17.02
50------51----------13.73
49------37----------5.41
48------21----------23.81
47------25----------8.00
46------27----------22.22
45------16----------0.00
44------11----------0.00
43------14----------14.29
42------9------------0.00
41------6------------0.00
40------8------------12.50
39------6------------16.67
38------12----------0.00
37------4------------25.00
36------7------------0.00
35------8------------0.00
34------7------------28.57
33------6------------16.67
32------4------------0.00
31------3------------0.00
30------5------------0.00
29------4------------25.00
28------3------------0.00
27------4------------0.00
26------5------------20.00
25------3------------0.00
24------4------------0.00
23------4------------0.00
22------5------------0.00
21------4------------0.00
20------1------------0.00
19------4------------0.00
18------2------------0.00
17------5------------0.00
16------8------------25.00
15------4------------0.00
14------4------------0.00
13------4------------0.00
12------7------------0.00
11------6------------0.00
10------16----------0.00
9--------6------------0.00
8--------8------------0.00
7--------5------------0.00
6--------2------------0.00
5--------0------------0.00
4--------5------------0.00
3--------16----------6.25
2--------4------------0.00
1--------12----------0.00
0--------16----------0.00

Max score: 136

Solid prediction percentage for Metroid Prime. It was only a bit short of Fallout 3's prediction percentage. -27 brackets and better managed to stay above 90. It's more or less a normal chart.

No one fell off the Top 50.
abdou | Posted 12/8/2010 9:15:37 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/8/2010 9:16:01 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4168&region=NAM

Huh. GoW must be really night-based.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4168&region=EUR

Wait..then what's...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4168&region=ASI

Oh.

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DFF
Pizzaknight | Posted 12/8/2010 9:16:11 AM | message detail
Man, look at that pic. Kratos has to deal with that massive beast, Alyx, AND Gordon?

No wonder his game is losing.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/8/2010 9:17:16 AM | message detail
GANON loves Metroid Prime, actually.

And yes, SotC > MGS2 crapped all over the LOL 4-way stats once and for all. Those stats, much like global warming, are a hoax.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/8/2010 9:17:22 AM | message detail
Man with how strong Half-Life 2 is, we should get the female lead into the contest!

>_>
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/8/2010 9:18:11 AM | message detail
I think the 'Game of the Decade' thing has more to do with it than a change in format. People respect SotC (and ICO) a lot.

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DFF