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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 968

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transients | Posted 12/7/2010 6:05:10 PM | message detail
oh whoops

I didn't really care about anything but the final four
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AxemPink | Posted 12/7/2010 6:06:27 PM | message detail
Threequel RSFF BELIEVE
Jmast7 | Posted 12/7/2010 6:19:39 PM | message detail
Anyone else notice what U2's last bastion of hope is in the U.S.? XD
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The list is done - see what made the Top 10!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/7/2010 7:35:04 PM | message detail
Feels good to get this division right, after seeing FF12 and Mass Effect **** the bed.
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Hochimihnister | Posted 12/7/2010 8:01:29 PM | message detail
All of the "heavy hitters" in the first two divisions have performed like crap. Fallout, Halo, Metroid, Half-Life and God of Bore have done nothing but disappoint
charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 8:05:50 PM | message detail
Time for Okami to rock these two divisions.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 112/128 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Halo
charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 8:08:21 PM | message detail
Match XCIX: (1) Metroid Prime vs. (4) Okami

Last Round

Metroid Prime – 64.61%
Devil May Cry 3 – 35.39%

Mega Man 9 – 43.69%
Okami – 56.31%

Analysis

I must say that Metroid Prime has had one of the craziest board votes so far in this contest. It was the second time last round that the game looked like a god slayer before crashing down to Earth. Also it seems that Mega Man 9 does have some strength or maybe name brand does go a long way if you have the right opponent. Okami was never going to win this match, but I always thought it would put up a respectable performance.

I don’t really understand why people are hyping Metroid Prime sure the game has been meeting our expectations, but like Super Mario Galaxy our expectations for the game was pretty low due to what happened last year. Up until last round Okami has showed as that the game has some strength, but its performance against Mega Man 9 wasn’t that great. Maybe Mega Man 9 really is that strong. I know people like to bring up the fact that it was a downloadable game, but when you think about it the game is by far the most downloaded game and it has sales rivalling many games that actually made this contest.

I expect Metroid Prime to go sky high for the third time with the board vote while Okami makes gains throughout the night. Metroid Prime does have a chance at breaking 60%, but I feel that Okami will prevent that. I’ve always been surprised at the strength Okami and Amaterasu showed on this site; they almost have nothing going for them.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Metroid Prime > Okami

charmander6000’s Prediction: Metroid Prime wins, 58.64% - 41.36%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 112/128 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Halo
kinsho3 | Posted 12/7/2010 8:10:34 PM | message detail
I want to see Okami break 40%, preferably ~43%. Half-Life 2 needs some hope here.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/7/2010 8:35:51 PM | message detail
Halo is so close to a 4000 vote lead here. Don't think it will hit that number before this match ends.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 12/7/2010 8:38:33 PM | message detail
I'd be surprised if Okami didn't break 40%, personally. It has a great picture, its reputation has only gone up with time, and it should definitely be a notch or two above DMC3 (which scored about 35% against MP).

I think char's prediction is right on the money. I doubt MP's board vote will be quite as impressive tonight, though; this board seems to like Okami quite a bit, unlike Star Ocean 3 and DMC3.

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 119
Uncharted 2 > Halo "lol"
SnoicFactor | Posted 12/7/2010 8:58:34 PM | message detail
okami upset incomin
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Master Moltar | Posted 12/7/2010 9:00:21 PM | message detail
Metroid Prime 90%

9
Okami 10%

1
TOTAL VOTES 10
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Moltar Status: 116 Points - Vote: Halo
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 9:00:29 PM | message detail
Metroid Prime 88.24% 15
Okami 11.76% 2
TOTAL VOTES 17

Gotta love the Metroid Prime board vote.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 120/136 Today's Matches: MP & HL2
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/7/2010 9:00:31 PM | message detail
Metroid board vote, I swear.

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DFF
GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/7/2010 9:00:38 PM | message detail
Prime board vote slightly less insane than usual
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Oracle contest - 15th
Today's pick: Prime - 59.18% Status:
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/7/2010 9:01:33 PM | message detail
Metroid Prime 62.42%

191
Okami 37.58%

115
TOTAL VOTES 306

Can't believe I missed one of my favorite games!
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tgs2 | Posted 12/7/2010 9:02:11 PM | message detail
threatening 40% here.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/7/2010 9:02:45 PM | message detail
finally will not lose anymore points because of that mario sunshine debacle.

Prime looking good so far.

FO3/Prime/HL2 toss-up still IMO
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/7/2010 9:03:17 PM | message detail
wait ... Prime just went from 60% to 63%
I thought it was supposed to go down from here?
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Oracle contest - 15th
Today's pick: Prime - 59.18% Status:
eaglesarebeasts | Posted 12/7/2010 9:03:18 PM | message detail
Damn, Prime is actually looking good :(
XxSoulxX | Posted 12/7/2010 9:03:45 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #268
finally will not lose anymore points because of that mario sunshine debacle.


Same here.
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abdou | Posted 12/7/2010 9:04:03 PM | message detail
HL2>Prime isn't looking good ;0
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/7/2010 9:04:28 PM | message detail
Man.. HL2 is gonna have to really impress. FO3 showed up yesterday, Prime is showing up here... argh.
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Blairville | Posted 12/7/2010 9:04:40 PM | message detail
dammit

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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/7/2010 9:05:06 PM | message detail
HL2, so f***ed

Oh wait, that's my favorite game ever. Ughhhh
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/7/2010 9:05:15 PM | message detail
You guys do realize that Prime dropped seven percentfrom the board vote in both of its other matches?

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DFF
Blairville | Posted 12/7/2010 9:06:15 PM | message detail
Okami has a good board vote dude, the other games didn't. It'll probably drop to 59%, but no lower.

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GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/7/2010 9:06:21 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #276
You guys do realize that Prime dropped seven percentfrom the board vote in both of its other matches?


Exactly. It won't fall as much here, but this probably ends up 58-42
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Oracle contest - 15th
Today's pick: Prime - 59.18% Status:
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/7/2010 9:06:39 PM | message detail
80.14% 19.86%
73.34% 26.66%

72.29% 27.71%
64.61% 35.39%

Starting and ending %s for the last two matches. Prime's board vote is just absurf.

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DFF
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/7/2010 9:06:57 PM | message detail
Okami should end this comfortably over 40%. Of course, now that I'm out, I actually want Prime in the semis, so I kinda want HL2 to fail. Come on, Gordo - do what you were so famous for back in the good old days!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/7/2010 9:07:44 PM | message detail
Okami lost the board vote to NMH and MM9. It doesn't have a bad board vote, but it isn't particularly good either.

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DFF
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/7/2010 9:07:45 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #280
Okami should end this comfortably over 40%. Of course, now that I'm out, I actually want Prime in the semis, so I kinda want HL2 to fail. Come on, Gordo - do what you were so famous for back in the good old days!


You're out?

You've been eliminated? How?!
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See You Space Cowboy
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/7/2010 9:08:03 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #282
You're out?

You've been eliminated? How?!


Halo > UC2
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kinsho3 | Posted 12/7/2010 9:08:53 PM | message detail
Not to mention Okami's a very night-oriented game. Expect Okami to climb up to around 43% here, at least.
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
Dr. Football, you are the man! I'll take you down next contest though...
GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/7/2010 9:08:54 PM | message detail
Prime's board vote is just absurf.
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Oracle contest - 15th
Today's pick: Prime - 59.18% Status:
abdou | Posted 12/7/2010 9:10:21 PM | message detail
Prime looking good.
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Blairville | Posted 12/7/2010 9:10:37 PM | message detail
I didn't check the other matches, I just assumed it did. How long does it take for the board vote to wear off anyway, 1 hour?

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Janus5000 | Posted 12/7/2010 9:10:49 PM | message detail
...Not the biggest drop for a game with such an absurf board vote.
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Mr3790 | Posted 12/7/2010 9:11:09 PM | message detail
Impressive performance Metroid Prime.
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Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/7/2010 9:11:10 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
124----1------------100.00
123----1------------0.00
122----8------------62.50
121----17----------64.71
120----44----------25.00
119----52----------28.85
118----87----------32.18
117----77----------46.75
116----106--------51.89
115----138--------54.35
114----162--------64.20
113----280--------67.86
112----230--------55.65
111----282--------59.57
110----276--------48.91
109----285--------55.79
108----340--------53.82
107----363--------56.47
106----394--------53.05
105----411--------54.01
104----420--------51.43
103----464--------47.20
102----483--------43.27
101----527--------47.25
100----548--------49.45
99------530--------43.21
98------519--------42.97
97------519--------40.46
96------550--------44.00
95------552--------41.49
94------604--------36.92
93------599--------37.73
92------631--------35.50
91------707--------36.07
90------646--------33.90
89------714--------31.93
88------720--------32.92
87------764--------33.51
86------725--------33.93
85------748--------29.68
84------822--------29.56
83------784--------30.10
82------816--------27.08
81------757--------25.76
80------819--------24.05
79------786--------24.05
78------797--------23.96
77------750--------23.60
76------784--------22.19
75------690--------21.30
74------674--------17.66
73------666--------19.37
72------627--------19.94
71------637--------18.68
70------538--------16.36
69------529--------15.31
68------476--------16.18
67------420--------14.29
66------425--------16.00
65------354--------13.28
64------296--------16.89
63------286--------11.54
62------263--------15.59
61------235--------14.47
60------190--------9.47
59------151--------7.95
58------142--------14.08
57------141--------14.89
56------105--------16.19
55------101--------10.89
54------101--------12.87
53------64----------9.38
52------52----------11.54
51------46----------2.17
50------51----------5.88
49------37----------2.70
48------21----------9.52
47------27----------7.41
46------29----------10.34
45------16----------6.25
44------11----------18.18
43------14----------0.00
42------9------------11.11
41------7------------14.29
40------10----------20.00
39------6------------0.00
38------11----------9.09
37------4------------0.00
36------7------------0.00
35------7------------0.00
34------8------------25.00
33------5------------0.00
32------4------------0.00
31------4------------25.00
30------6------------16.67
29------5------------20.00
...
10------17----------5.88
...
4--------6------------16.67

Max Score: 132
Omitted scores got it wrong.

Tough match. I think a lot of people had given up on Uncharted 2 by the time this match came up but you can't change your bracket. The top tiers did a slight bit better than the mid tiers but it wasn't anything too big. The prediction percentage stuck around the mid 50s to low 60s for several tiers before slowly fading away.

26 people fell off the Top 50. Most of them were Luster Soldier. transience_002, TheArkOfTurus, transience, RPGman2112, kneazlegirl, AgainAgainFFA, hylianknight3, TheGreenThunder, InsaneSage12654, MerchantTorneko, Eternal_Debate, Air_Pollution, CaptainLeapYear, Land_Pollution, 6-Hour_Power, Anti_LUEshi, Shinigami_Duo, Zero_Bracket, Mouth-Wash, Lame-Username, Black-LUEsday, TurkeyDayFeast, Captain-Bumper, Negative-Slope, RIP_Computer and Heart-Luster did not have Halo winning the match.

1 person got it wrong and survied. gitanil also did not have Halo winning the match.
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/7/2010 9:11:23 PM | message detail
Prime has a really good power hour and then bleeds for the rest of the match. It isn't sudden or immediate, it just drops continuously once Europe and Asia hit.

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DFF
WhiteLens | Posted 12/7/2010 9:11:29 PM | message detail
Aww yeah, #28 on the contest leaderboard!

I'll probably lose it 2 days later for picking KH II, but at least I'm on!
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/7/2010 9:11:33 PM | message detail
Well against DMC3, Prime lost 3% between the 5-minute freeze and the 20-minute freeze
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Oracle contest - 15th
Today's pick: Prime - 59.18% Status:
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/7/2010 9:12:27 PM | message detail
DMC3 early vote is also pretty bad!

This probably ends up 58-42.

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DFF
GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/7/2010 9:13:26 PM | message detail
yes, like I said 10 minutes ago
*shakes hand*
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Oracle contest - 15th
Today's pick: Prime - 59.18% Status:
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/7/2010 9:13:29 PM | message detail
Unfortunately for Gordon, he's gonna be tackling Samus in a day match, so we probably won't have Prime falling from the heavens like these Europe/Asia matches of the last three 3 round..
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/7/2010 9:14:35 PM | message detail
I think creative has said that there is no difference between Metroid in a night match and Metroid in a day match. In a day match, they don't get the crazy early vote, but they also don't get hit by Europe/Asia. It's an equal tradeoff.

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DFF
Blairville | Posted 12/7/2010 9:14:57 PM | message detail
I'm no longer the only one on the leaderboard repping Half-Life 2, lame.

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Hochimihnister | Posted 12/7/2010 9:15:25 PM | message detail
How is this impressive? The winner of Fallout/Halo/Metroid Prime/HL2 is just a game on who doesn't suck the least. This performance still sucks - just not as bad as Fallout did. If HL2 breaks 54% tomorrow, then it can still beat Metroid Prime. Both GoW and ToS should beat Okami with around 55ish percent
kinsho3 | Posted 12/7/2010 9:17:06 PM | message detail
I don't know if the day match factor even matters much. Yes, Prime has a relatively weak night vote, but the fact that it has an astounding power hour matched with the low votals of a night match makes up for it.
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Dr. Football, you are the man! I'll take you down next contest though...