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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 968

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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 1:32:16 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #199
It's a JRPG that won a vote-in poll against a game whose strength may as well be unknown to me.


Which game?

Battlefront II?

We have a decent idea of its strength.

But assuming UC2 wouldn't 60/40 Batman is just "common sense," if I may be allowed to use a non-stat related argument for a minute here. Fallout 3 wins based on the eye test alone.

And if you want to bring LOL 4-ways into this, FO3 wins easily there, too. FO3 was the favorite for a reason, and Halo 1 had to do something to prove it could beat it. It hasn't really done that, unless you think 65% on Ninja Gaiden is impressive.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 1:32:54 PM | message detail
Well there's my 52% from what I said earlier this match. I guess Halo didn't underperform after all.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 112/128 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Halo
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 1:33:28 PM | message detail

From: Janus5000 | #200
And we officially have SMS > LoD. Darn.


Well, it was fun while it lasted!
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/7/2010 1:35:19 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #190
Yeah, there hasn't been an instance that should give anyone hope that Halo has a chance. It been a night match doesn't help its case.


I keep forgetting about the day/night thing. Yeah Fallout wins, but I have no clue where Slow is getting his 60-40 Halo > Batman thing from.
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voltch | Posted 12/7/2010 1:36:30 PM | message detail
UC2, overall i think it's still had an impressive run, wouldn't mind seeing it again in future contests.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 1:37:05 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #204
Yeah Fallout wins, but I have no clue where Slow is getting his 60-40 Halo > Batman thing from.


Fallout 3 beat Batman 60/40.

So it kinda makes sense that Halo would have to get around that general area.

Stop acting like I'm an idiot and you don't have any idea what I mean.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 1:38:15 PM | message detail
And stop acting like Halo could beat Batman with 52% and still have a chance to beat Fallout 3.

That's just being obstinate for no reason.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/7/2010 1:38:36 PM | message detail
I meant Batman as the game with unknown strength (unknown prior to its match with Fallout 3, that is). You probably know that I favor stats and past results over common sense 95% of the time (that's right Ulti). In this case, common sense (my common sense, anyway) tells me almost nothing about Batman vs. Legend of Dragoon. This probably has a lot to do with my disconnect from the video game industry recently. I trust common sense when it's about fanbases I know about and am a part of: Chrono Trigger, Zelda, Smash. With games that may as well be two unknowns to me, my common sense is basically silent on the matter.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/7/2010 1:39:21 PM | message detail
No I seriously thought you were referencing some old poll where Halo barely won over Batman or something, which is why I was confused.

LOL @ me
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/7/2010 1:41:49 PM | message detail
Not sure what discussion I missed here, but Halo has F3 at night, and there's no way Uncharted is so much stronger than Batman as to make the div finals competitive in the first place. As most people thought, Fallout 3 will make it to the quarters without breaking a sweat.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/7/2010 1:42:49 PM | message detail
It's funny how we laughed at the Barber man on the show for taking Prime to the semis, but that could actually happen.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 1:43:59 PM | message detail
And it's funny how we talk about how voters aren't robots, and yet we know voter trends like the back of our hands to the point that we knew Halo 1 had this match easily even when UC2 led for the first hour!
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/7/2010 1:46:46 PM | message detail
It's not about voters being robots, it's about statistics. Get a large enough group of voters, and you can predict what's going to happen to a high degree of accuracy, even with none of the individuals being robots. If you like Cloud, there's a high probability you like Sephiroth too. As an individual voter, you may like Cloud and hate Sephiroth, but get enough Cloud fans, and eventually you'll find that most of them like Sephiroth.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 1:49:29 PM | message detail
I know. I'm being (somewhat) facetious.

And man, at least try to maintain SOME dignity, UC2!
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 1:52:13 PM | message detail
Would Halo have won a 24 hour match?

Europe seems to favour U2 while Canada seems to have gone from 60% U2 to almost flipping to Halo already.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 112/128 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Halo
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 1:53:07 PM | message detail
Halo probably wins a 24 hour match since its ASV is going to be by far the biggest advantage of the match. I don't see UC2 being able to build up a big enough lead overnight to hold it off, even with how bad Halo's night vote is.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 2:02:59 PM | message detail
Updates broken in 30 minutes.

Time | Halo
0:30 | 49.68%
1:00 | 50.27%
1:30 | 53.10%
2:00 | 50.41%
2:30 | 50.22%
3:00 | 52.88%
3:30 | 52.90%
4:00 | 53.25%
4:30 | 55.96%
5:00 | 54.81%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 112/128 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Halo
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/7/2010 2:37:34 PM | message detail
http://oi52.tinypic.com/j5d16h.jpg

What do you guys think?
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transients | Posted 12/7/2010 2:39:01 PM | message detail
do it. KH2 wins.

AC2/Batman/Uncharted 2 look like the class of 2009.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/7/2010 2:40:59 PM | message detail
Well my odds are dead, so that ain't the main reason I did it. I know the board will bracket vote KH to the early lead (few seconds at least), so I want to see Ariel and Belle leading something. Can you imagine if KHII had Cloud and Seph in the pic? Best few seconds in GameFAQs history.
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Lopen | Posted 12/7/2010 2:41:26 PM | message detail
Forget 24 hours, that's an easy Halo win.

Halo probably wins a night match. Game isn't quite as polar as it used to be from day to night.

Or maybe 12 hour matches are to blame for the loss in polarity I dunno.
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swordz9 | Posted 12/7/2010 2:41:35 PM | message detail
That image doesn't look bad exactly, but Sora looks pretty bad in it. I almost thought he was wearing makeup.
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shane15 | Posted 12/7/2010 2:41:40 PM | message detail
Get some Cloud and Squall on KH1 and we march to victory!
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transients | Posted 12/7/2010 2:43:49 PM | message detail
I was joking. pics aren't going to matter here - people know what's in both KH games and one pic isn't going to sway people.
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xyzzy
transients | Posted 12/7/2010 2:44:09 PM | message detail
I mean, unless it's Cloud/Sephiroth/Squall vs. the Gummi Ship or something
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/7/2010 2:44:21 PM | message detail
Hey what the percentage will be?I imagine less than 33% myself.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 2:45:19 PM | message detail
SA2 has fallen behind Halo 3 in the stats now, sadly.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/7/2010 2:48:38 PM | message detail
This is some ASV. My 54% prediction will actually end up looking decent.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 2:49:17 PM | message detail
In other news Canada has flipped to Halo while the US is about to break 57%.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 112/128 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Halo
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 3:05:28 PM | message detail
Yeah, this feels like the first major ASV crushing in forever. Halo's been averaging about 55% the last couple hours.
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medicority | Posted 12/7/2010 3:17:08 PM | message detail
this makes me SF4 > halo pick a decent upset chance

too bad it's going to end up costing me a ton of points
EvilNcr | Posted 12/7/2010 3:17:29 PM | message detail
Nailed it. Good to see I was dead on about the course of this match. Now it just needs to go up about 2%.
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Haste_2 | Posted 12/7/2010 3:27:56 PM | message detail
I -need- the points from this Halo victory! My Round 2 was so awful! I missed just 5 matches in Round 1, but somehow I missed SEVEN of them in Round 2! This is a good start for me, and I need some advantage over others since I'm inevitably going to miss points on Portal/Mass Effect (no FFXII to be seen).

Halo 3 vs. Uncharted 2 in a day match - who would you take?

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/7/2010 3:33:42 PM | message detail
Halo breaks a 2000 vote lead. At this rate, it will break 3000 for sure and maybe even reach 4000.
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/7/2010 3:35:38 PM | message detail
well it's not gonna keep increasing like mad until midnight
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Oracle contest - 15th
Today's pick: Halo - 53.95% Status: Good
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/7/2010 3:48:25 PM | message detail
I think we can conclude that it's just about impossible to lose while scoring 55%+ in the U.S. in a day match. I think Halo should be the favorite in a night match as well.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 12/7/2010 3:50:42 PM | message detail
Dang! UC2 is about to fall below 47%.

Nathan messed up my bracket in the last CB, UC2 is really choking here... dang. I need to place less faith in this series from now on. >_>

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Uncharted 2 > Halo "lol"
charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 3:54:02 PM | message detail
Are people forgetting what happened at the beginning of the match? Uncharted 2 would be the favourite in a night match.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 112/128 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Halo
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/7/2010 3:56:46 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/7/2010 3:57:00 PM | message detail
There we go, 61% update for Halo. Finally broke 60% that time.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 3:57:23 PM | message detail
61.32% update for Halo in the 18:52 update
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 112/128 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Halo
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/7/2010 4:09:28 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #236
Are people forgetting what happened at the beginning of the match? Uncharted 2 would be the favourite in a night match.


I think this is the best thing you've said about UC2 all day, Char!
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/7/2010 4:23:56 PM | message detail
If you hold Fallout 3 equal to its 2009 self, here are the games which its half division members are closest to according to those stats:

Batman Arkham Asylum - Grand Theft Auto III (oh what a coincidence)
Deus Ex - Xenogears
inFamous - Pong
Team Fortress 2 - Disgaea
Fable - Tetris
Psychonauts - Team Fortress 2
Rock Band 2 - Fire Emblem

If you hold Deus Ex equal to its '09 self:

Fallout 3 - Castlevania: SOTN (uh oh)
Rock Band 2 - Team Fortress 2
Batman Arkham Asylum - Left 4 Dead
Team Fortress 2 - Mass Effect
Fable - Battletoads
Psychonauts - Suikoden
inFamous - Streets of Rage 2

If you hold Team Fortress 2 constant:

Fable - The Oregon Trail
Batman Arkham Asylum - Battletoads
Psychonauts - River City Ransom
Fallout 3 - Morrowind (uhhhhh)

Okay I'll stop here, from now on I'll only work it out until I get the game that won the eightpack, except for the first case.

So Fallout 3 had better hope that TF2 isn't its last year's self, huh? Fortunately the game seems to have had a substantial boost otherwise.
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/7/2010 5:25:49 PM | message detail
hay guyz
predict this frickin division
(let's pretend they're all 24-hour matches to make thing simpler)

(1) Fallout 3
(16) Mother 3

(8) Tales of Vesperia
(9) Gears of War

(5) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
(12) Assassin's Creed

(4) Call of Duty 4
(13) Metroid Fusion

(3) Half-Life 2
(14) Psychonauts

(6) Morrowind
(11) Mega Man 9

(7) Rock Band 2
(10) Dragon Quest VIII

(2) Final Fantasy IX
(15) The Sims


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Oracle contest - 15th
Today's pick: Halo - 53.95% Status: Good
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/7/2010 5:30:00 PM | message detail
(16) Mother 3
(9) Gears of War

(12) Assassin's Creed
(4) Call of Duty 4

(3) Half-Life 2
(6) Morrowind

(10) Dragon Quest VIII
(2) Final Fantasy IX

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(16) Mother 3
(12) Assassin's Creed

(3) Half-Life 2
(2) Final Fantasy IX


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The Mana Sword | Posted 12/7/2010 5:31:50 PM | message detail
Man, dat Halo ASV. Crazy to think that this was 50/50 after the first hour.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/7/2010 5:36:55 PM | message detail
(1) Fallout 3->
(16) Mother 3

(8) Tales of Vesperia
(9) Gears of War->

(5) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas->
(12) Assassin's Creed

(4) Call of Duty 4->
(13) Metroid Fusion

(3) Half-Life 2->
(14) Psychonauts

(6) Morrowind->
(11) Mega Man 9

(7) Rock Band 2
(10) Dragon Quest VIII-> (lol music games)

(2) Final Fantasy IX->
(15) The Sims

Fallout 3 > Gears of War
GTA: San Andreas > Call of Duty 4
Half-Life 2 > Morrowind
Final Fantasy IX > Dragon Quest VIII

Fallout 3 > GTA: San Andreas
Final Fantasy IX > Half-Life 2

Final Fantasy IX > Fallout 3
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AxemPink | Posted 12/7/2010 5:40:34 PM | message detail
I...guess the ASV is over now!
transients | Posted 12/7/2010 5:40:41 PM | message detail
no way does HL2 beat FF9. not unless FF9 loses to KOTOR or struggles with it.
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/7/2010 5:41:38 PM | message detail
I like how you skipped over Mother 3 beating FO3, but HL2 > FF9 was a big no-no
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