GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 968

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/7/2010 11:47:25 AM | message detail
That was a Missingno-like killshot.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/7/2010 11:47:49 AM | message detail
(of killing my Guru bracket)

(he has now done it twice)
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 11:50:20 AM | message detail
That was a 58% update if anyone was wondering.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 112/128 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Halo
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/7/2010 11:50:25 AM | message detail
red sox 777 | Posted 12/7/2010 2:09:38 PM | message detail
College students have very little to do with the ASV. It's all high school and lower students that makes up the surge of votes we get there. With finals, we might see lower votals (it seemed to happen in May 2009), but I doubt it'll shift the trends.


The age poll trends would seem to suggest this. 18-20 and 21-25 do worst in the ASV while "Under 10", 10-13, and 14-17 are excellent with the ASV.

Last year, I actually tracked poll updates for a poll with extreme trend changes. It was the "Where are you browsing GameFAQs from right now?" poll, which was ran on 9/22/2009 (weekday poll). It might be somewhat relevant to the whole ASV discussion. I never posted those trends, but here they are:

http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/898/locationpolltrends.png

"My bedroom" was very strong with the early vote and the night vote, but bombs the morning vote horribly and never really recovered with the ASV. The SNV is when "My bedroom" recovered big time, but it wasn't as good as the FNV.

As I expected, the dorm room option did terribly overnight and also in the ASV too. The early morning vote was bad for dorm room, but it did do better in the DSV at least. Dorm room didn't really do that much better in the SNV compared to FNV. Seems like college students like to vote near the start of a poll, at least in night matches. "In class" was terrible in the first 6 hours of the poll and also the ASV and SNV, but did good in the morning and mid day hours.

"Home office/computer room" was terrible for the first 6 hours of the poll, but did do better when the sun rose. ASV was easily its best time. "Living/family/game room" was more balanced in its trends, apart from having a good ASV. "Another room in my house" is similar to "Home office/computer room" as far as trends go. "At work" had a good morning vote, as expected, died off in the ASV, and was absolutely terrible in the SNV and the first 6 hours of the poll.

"In a public place" was terrible until the DSV kicked in, dropped off with the ASV a bit, and was terrible with the SNV. "Other" was fairly balanced the whole day and was best in the ASV.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 11:52:22 AM | message detail
This contest...

XD Halo trying to choke as hardest as it can.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 112/128 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Halo
AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/7/2010 11:52:26 AM | message detail
Uncharted cut.

The kiddies are showing up to win the ASV for UC2! This was just the tail end of the early afternoon vote...
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transience | Posted 12/7/2010 12:05:01 PM | message detail
Thanks for that, Luster.
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Gooper Blooper | Posted 12/7/2010 12:14:30 PM | message detail
Halo the Cool Guy was a jolly happy soul
With a needler gun and grenades and bombs
And an insta-kill plasma sword
Halo the Cool Guy is a chokemaster they say
He was made of "LOL no" but the casuals know
How he made Round Four one day.
There must have been some Game Fuel in that ASV they found,
For when they stuck it in the poll
He began to dance around!
Halo the Cool Guy
Was elite as he could be
And the casuals say he could trashtalk all day
Just the same as boys of 13.

Thumpety thump-thump thumpety thump thump
Look at Halo go.
Thumpety thump-thump thumpety thump thump
Messing with the poll.

Halo the Cool Guy knew the schools were in that day
So he said "Let's choke, entertain those blokes,
Now before I pull away."
Down came percentage
With a boomstick in his hand
Then they traded leads and he said "Whoopee!
Now catch me if you can!"
He ran about the bracket,
Right past ol' GSC,
And he only paused a moment
When Ho-Oh hollered "FREEZE!"
Halo the Cool Guy had to lose to Fallout 3,
But he waved goodbye, saying "Don't you cry,
I'll be back next year, you'll see!"

I'LL BE BAAACK NEEEEXT YEEEEAR YOU'LLLLL SEEEEEE
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 12:17:53 PM | message detail
That was a 57% update. I wonder if it can hit 60% at one point.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 112/128 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Halo
pjbasis | Posted 12/7/2010 12:21:48 PM | message detail
Dayumn.

Wonder how bad this gonna get.
paulg235 | Posted 12/7/2010 12:26:46 PM | message detail
I just realised that today's top 10 is about Halo.

Top 10 Factor confirmed!
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Advokaiser | Posted 12/7/2010 12:28:51 PM | message detail
lol

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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 12:29:17 PM | message detail
I'm sure this has already been mentioned, but...

Man, Halo got lucky this wasn't a night match.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 12:36:43 PM | message detail

From: Haste_2 | #091
And, given Halo's proven weakness now (or so I suppose), KH2's score on Halo 2 looks a whole lot less credible now. That's good for my KH1 > KH2 bracket (which has Melee > Brawl, too), but bad for the my main bracket.


You know what doesn't look better than 64% on Halo 2?

66% on MW2.

I'm not sure why people keep acting like KH1's had such a better performance up to this point.

Although if you want to subscribe to MW2 >= UC2 and Halo 1 >= Halo 2, then yeah, KH1's got it in the bag.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 12:37:44 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #111
I kinda wonder if Halo can beat Fallout 3.


Man, UC2 ain't 60/40ing Batman. I'm not even sure it beats Batman.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 12:45:45 PM | message detail
Last night's chart:

Time | Fallout 3 | Batman | Votes
0:05 | 60.82% | 39.18% | 1021
1:00 | 59.58% | 40.42% | 7122
2:00 | 58.42% | 41.58% | 4370
3:00 | 59.33% | 40.67% | 3216
4:00 | 59.25% | 40.75% | 2400
5:00 | 59.43% | 40.57% | 1866
6:00 | 58.42% | 41.58% | 1729
7:00 | 60.57% | 39.43% | 2138
8:00 | 57.68% | 42.32% | 2545
9:00 | 59.39% | 40.61% | 2945
10:00 | 55.57% | 44.43% | 718
11:00 | 57.36% | 42.64% | 3661
12:00 | 58.04% | 41.96% | 3201

Not sure I should even count that weird hour where the site was acting up as Batman's best hour, but if not, the next hour was anyway. Not much shifting here. Fallout 3 only manages one hour of 60%+ here.

Upper Half Stats

Fallout 3 – 50.00%
Batman: Arkham Asylum – 41.20%
Team Fortress 2 – 33.36%
Fable – 33.34%
Deus Ex – 25.73%
Rock Band 2 – 25.34%
Psychonauts – 22.66%
inFamous – 19.00%

LOL inFamous
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 12:48:37 PM | message detail
And for the curious, here's a preliminary look at the stats for the lower half as they stand right now:

Lower Half Stats

Halo: Combat Evolved – 50.00%
Uncharted 2: Among Thieves – 48.65%
Street Fighter IV – 44.72%
Sonic Adventure 2 – 44.05%
Halo 3 – 43.08%
The Legend of Dragoon – 41.45%
Super Mario Sunshine – 40.90%
Ninja Gaiden – 35.55%

If you're wondering, UC2 has to stay above 48% for LoD > Sunshine to hold.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 12:52:30 PM | message detail
lol Sunshine, I know there's SFF between Halo/Halo 3, but I would never have thought to take SA2 over it.

Still won't
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 112/128 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Halo
SuperWhiscash | Posted 12/7/2010 12:53:40 PM | message detail
Sonic Adventure 2 – 44.05%
Super Mario Sunshine – 40.90%


There are no words to sum up how wonderful this is.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 12/7/2010 12:56:56 PM | message detail
...I really, really sucked at predicting this division. I took RB2, SA2 and SMS to win their matches, and I took UC2 to win here. :\

Ah well. At least Uncharted isn't really sucking it up or anything.

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 119
Uncharted 2 > Halo (crosses fingers)
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 12:58:30 PM | message detail
Well, at least three out of four of those (LOL Sunshine) weren't bad picks!
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/7/2010 1:04:18 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #167
Sonic Adventure 2 – 44.05%
Halo 3 – 43.08%


LOL
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/7/2010 1:05:00 PM | message detail

From: Slowflake | #165
Man, UC2 ain't 60/40ing Batman. I'm not even sure it beats Batman.


LOL x-stats, this has nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not Halo has a chance at Fallout 3. Voters are not automated robots.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 12/7/2010 1:07:16 PM | message detail
Buying into the Sunlo hype wasn't one of my smartest decisions, that's for sure... >_>

The pick I'm most ashamed of is probably Civ 4 > P3, honestly. Looking back, there was very little reason to believe Civ had any chance at all of winning.

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 119
Uncharted 2 > Halo "lol"
Advokaiser | Posted 12/7/2010 1:11:36 PM | message detail
The pick I'm most ashamed of is probably Civ 4 > P3, honestly. Looking back, there was very little reason to believe Civ had any chance at all of winning.

Nah. I went with P3 just because of JRPGs factor. Civilization is much more recognized as a series. It was still a toss up match.



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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 1:11:48 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #173
LOL x-stats, this has nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not Halo has a chance at Fallout 3. Voters are not automated robots.


Of course they're not, but don't be silly to think that it's going to barely beat a game equal to the one Fallout 3 beat 60/40 and somehow win. That doesn't make any sense.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/7/2010 1:12:06 PM | message detail
That was a total tossup. Look how close it was.
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Janus5000 | Posted 12/7/2010 1:12:29 PM | message detail
...When did Leonhart turn into Slowflake?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/7/2010 1:13:00 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #176
Of course they're not, but don't be silly to think that it's going to barely beat a game equal to the one Fallout 3 beat 60/40 and somehow win.


What game are you talking about?
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tgs2 | Posted 12/7/2010 1:13:06 PM | message detail
Undercover_Spy (and 1 alt)
War_on_Accounts (and 210 alts)

I just now noticed this edit on the battle leader board.
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voltch | Posted 12/7/2010 1:13:18 PM | message detail
You say it like it's a bad thing.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/7/2010 1:13:20 PM | message detail

From: Janus5000 | #178
...When did Leonhart turn into Slowflake?


He's been Slowflake for years when it comes to stat-preaching.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 1:13:30 PM | message detail

From: Janus5000 | #178
...When did Leonhart turn into Slowflake?


Hmmm?

It's really got nothing to do with "what the x-stats say."

I'm just looking at Fallout 3's performances vs. Halo 1's performances.

And I'm not seeing what weird trick Halo 1's going to pull out of its hat to win that match.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 1:14:00 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #179
What game are you talking about?


Batman.

You know, the only game Fallout 3 has 60/40'd up to this point.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/7/2010 1:14:27 PM | message detail
LOL x-stats, this has nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not Halo has a chance at Fallout 3. Voters are not automated robots.

No, but get about 100,000 of them, and they're pretty close, as long as there isn't some systematic reason to defy linearity. The key word is systematic.
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voltch | Posted 12/7/2010 1:15:07 PM | message detail
Luster must be proud to have forced SB to change something.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 1:16:29 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #182
He's been Slowflake for years when it comes to stat-preaching.


Oh, get off your high horse.

The x-stats aren't perfect, but performances do matter.

And Fallout 3's performances have been better.
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Janus5000 | Posted 12/7/2010 1:17:17 PM | message detail
59.87% update for Halo.

Man, I'd missed seeing this thing beast the ASV so hard.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 1:17:32 PM | message detail
That was a 59.87% update, almost 60% there.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 112/128 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Halo
charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 1:19:39 PM | message detail
Yeah, there hasn't been an instance that should give anyone hope that Halo has a chance. It been a night match doesn't help its case.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 112/128 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Halo
charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 1:20:04 PM | message detail
been = being
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GotD Bracket: 112/128 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Halo
red sox 777 | Posted 12/7/2010 1:21:09 PM | message detail
Though a hypothetical UC2/Batman doesn't have any real impact on a Halo/Fallout 3 match for me. I'd have no clue how strong Batman is but for Fallout 3, and more confidence in where Halo is than UC2, so why wouldn't UC2 60-40 Batman? The answer is that Fallout 3 would beat Halo easily, which is not a good argument for showing that Fallout 3 would beat Halo easily.
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TheCodeisBosco | Posted 12/7/2010 1:22:15 PM | message detail
Man! UC2's getting absolutely mauled right now. Bollocks. :\

Nah. I went with P3 just because of JRPGs factor. Civilization is much more recognized as a series. It was still a toss up match.

I guess you're right, but I don't know - that was the one pick I regretted immediately after bracket lockdown, and as the match got closer, I quickly began to feel even worse about Civ's prospects of winning.

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CURRENT GOTY SCORE: 119
Uncharted 2 > Halo "lol"
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 1:22:37 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #192
Though a hypothetical UC2/Batman doesn't have any real impact on a Halo/Fallout 3 match for me. I'd have no clue how strong Batman is but for Fallout 3, and more confidence in where Halo is than UC2, so why wouldn't UC2 60-40 Batman?


Well, take Legend of Dragoon >+ Batman if you want to, but...
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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/7/2010 1:23:09 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #192
The answer is that Fallout 3 would beat Halo easily, which is not a good argument for showing that Fallout 3 would beat Halo easily.


uh
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2010 1:23:15 PM | message detail
If you want to go stat mode Fallout 3 defeat Halo 3 by more than Halo did.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 112/128 Today's Matches: Fallout 3 & Halo
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 1:24:58 PM | message detail
Heck, I'm not sure I'd take LoD > TF2, for that matter, and Batman 60/40'd that.

Legend of Dragoon vs. Fable...Hmm...
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2010 1:27:13 PM | message detail
Halo rapidly approaching a 1000 vote lead.

And to think, UC2 was leading merely 3.5 hours ago.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/7/2010 1:29:01 PM | message detail
I see no problem with Legend of Dragoon > Batman (ignoring the 41% it just got on Fallout 3). It's a JRPG that won a vote-in poll against a game whose strength may as well be unknown to me.

And using Fallout 3 > Halo to prove Fallout 3 > Halo is called circular reasoning, which is why it's not a good argument.
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Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest.
Janus5000 | Posted 12/7/2010 1:31:36 PM | message detail
And we officially have SMS > LoD. Darn.
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