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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 967

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TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/6/2010 6:44:05 AM | message detail
Yikes, that overnight vote killed WW.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/6/2010 6:48:06 AM | message detail
And what makes us think that Gears of War has fallen off so much? Being less than tripled by two elite games with a third strong game (as we just discovered) last year is not that much worse than being more than tripled by TP. But you think going from a port in those polls to now moved Oblivion from being worth 35% or 42% (depending on which GOTY poll) on GoW to being worth more than 60% (or a little more because TTYD probably puts up 61% during the day)?
Menji76 | Posted 12/6/2010 6:49:20 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #002
Because the Oblivion in that GOTY poll was a port, and ports don't do well in polls.


huh
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WhiteLens | Posted 12/6/2010 7:02:40 AM | message detail
I can use GotY polls too:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1870

See, TTYD being beaten by ToS, and what game beat ToS?
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3490

Though I'm not saying that TTYD can't win.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/6/2010 7:09:41 AM | message detail
Pikmin 2's horrible performance saddens me.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/6/2010 7:13:06 AM | message detail
I saw those polls too. But I also think that Symphonia benefited from a lot of SFF in that poll (more than the standard all-GC SFF). Tales was clearly the only major "non-standard Nintendo" game in that poll. And I think that MP drew a lot off of PM there. I don't think there was any major SFF like that against Oblivion in the GOTY poll I used, but I guess arguments could be made.
fyrael | Posted 12/6/2010 7:22:14 AM | message detail
Pikmin 2's horrible performance saddens me.

There was a Pikmin 2?
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/6/2010 7:28:35 AM | message detail
I meant in the 2004 GameCube GOTY poll.
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/6/2010 7:29:13 AM | message detail
Maybe AC2 will break 40% after all.I really hope it does it.
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fyrael | Posted 12/6/2010 7:32:27 AM | message detail
Yes, and I meant "they made a second Pikmin game?"
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/6/2010 7:33:50 AM | message detail
Yeah. In my opinion it was better than the first, but basically the only reason the original was enjoyable was because it was something very original (and it usually came for free with a GC at the beginning), which the second one lacked.
charmander6000 | Posted 12/6/2010 8:00:43 AM | message detail
Match XCVI: (7) Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door vs. (2) The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion

Last Round

Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door – 59.82%
Gears of War – 40.18%

The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion – 62.45%
Soul Calibur II – 37.55%

Analysis

This is the final match of the second round. Every contest there is always a match where people start freaking out due to them believing some crazy scenario. A lot of people seem to fear that Paper Mario is capable of an upset and while the match will probably be closer than we thought pre-contest I really don’t see a reason why some people are freaking out.

Getting almost 60% on Gears of War is not that impressive and it certainly does not make you strong. Just take a look what happened to it last contest it was crushed in its match. For whatever reason Portal easily defeating Final Fantasy XII seems to make people think that Gears of War 2 has some strength and since that game is weaker than the original it should speak well for Gears of War. For one thing unless people think Portal is now as strong as Resident Evil 4 I don’t see how it makes Gears of War 2 and its original look decent. You have to remember that game was crushed by Portal in the first round.

If Oblivion does lose it’ll be due to its weakness, though I think people are underestimating Soul Calibur II a bit. The game was one of the fighting games of the decade and just because Soul Calibur perform terribly in the previous contest does not mean that Soul Calibur II is weak. At the same time I wouldn’t be surprised if the game has started to show its age though we never really did know how strong the game initially was.

While Paper Mario did well in easily defeating World of Warcraft all you have to do is take a look at Arthas to see that those guys don’t seem to perform well in this format. If you hold a rematch between Oblivion and World of Warcraft I would expect Oblivion to win by a lot more than it did last contest. If Paper Mario does pull off the impossible upset I would love to see the whining that the match will cause from The Elder Scrolls fans.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Oblivion > Paper Mario: TTYD

charmander6000’s Prediction: Oblivion wins, 56.20% - 43.80%

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 108/124 Today's Matches: LoZ: WW & Oblivion
Glenn_and_Toad | Posted 12/6/2010 8:02:37 AM | message detail
Bold prediction: Paper Mario wins a nailbiter.

Also outsouced is indeed great.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/6/2010 8:03:01 AM | message detail
Paper Mario isn't going to get close to Oblivion.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/6/2010 8:03:08 AM | message detail
First Zelda underperformance of the contest. Ah well, 5/6 ain't bad.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/6/2010 8:11:47 AM | message detail
I don't know Char. Portal did not beat Gears of War 2 by much more than expected if you compare FFXII to Gears of War from the 2006 GOTY polls. I think GoW is still pretty close to the level it was at in 2006. I think I'm sticking with PM here. I think everyone is too caught up on pre-contest expectations and not letting them go to realize that this should be an incredibly close match either way.
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/6/2010 8:13:47 AM | message detail
Also,
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2626
I realize that this underestimates Oblivion a lot, but I still don't see it going from being doubled by Gears to 60/40ing it. I wouldn't be surprised if PM won this easily now.
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/6/2010 8:16:14 AM | message detail
I suppose you think Gears of War and FFXII would beat KHII then, too, huh
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/6/2010 8:16:48 AM | message detail
Man I'm gonna feel so bad for you if you take PM and blow it now that you've got the contest in your hands.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/6/2010 8:22:14 AM | message detail
I agree that FFXII has fallen off a good deal (and KHII got stronger). Still, that is a massive percentage discrepancy to make up.
And Extha, don't think that this isn't driving me nuts. But in the end I think I'd feel even worse if I listened to you guys and then lost it. That's the reason I stuck with SotC in the end. I really think PM will win and I am not unconfident (I think I made that word up) enough about it that I am willing to risk how ticked I would be at myself if I blew this by listening to the board (even though I freely admit that most of you on the board know much more than I do).
WhiteLens | Posted 12/6/2010 8:25:09 AM | message detail
But in turn he'll be laughing at us if we get it wrong.
So, it's basically him vs almost everyone here.

But whatever the case is, if TTYD wins, I doubt it'll move the top of the brackets much, which is what I care about at the moment because if Halo beats Uncharted 2, then I have a good chance at being on the leaderboard. (Well unless the upper cLuster has that pick too)
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/6/2010 8:26:20 AM | message detail
TOAA I think I'd bank if I were you, losing all those points would suck, escpecially since you pretty much rule the battle challenge right now. Banking those points always makes you win.
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/6/2010 8:27:34 AM | message detail
Also even though I got Oblivion in my bracket I think I'll jump on team TTYD as well, just because it's one of the best games this decade.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/6/2010 8:27:43 AM | message detail
I think I'll be laughing because of SotC for a long time. If I was worried about me against the board then I think I should just call it a victory and stick with the board from here on out. I want to win this contest and am incredibly worried about this match. I won't pick Oblivion because I really have no confidence in it winning this match at all. Right now my debate is between banking and mailing it in for third place or going for broke and the win.
ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/6/2010 8:29:47 AM | message detail
Bank dude, I don't really think anyone has that many points at risk that they can defeat you anyways, that is unless you mess up on this one.
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WhiteLens | Posted 12/6/2010 8:33:03 AM | message detail
And you'd have to be REALLY confident if you think you can pull a decent streak in R3 with stuff like

UC2/Halo
KH/KH II
KOTOR/FF IX
and MM/GSC

breaking things up.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/6/2010 8:33:49 AM | message detail
Can't bank if I want to win, there are still two guys ahead of me. And I think one person behind me could catch me at the moment if I bank on this match.
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/6/2010 8:34:49 AM | message detail
I am decently confident in Halo and if I bank at KH/KHII then I have a good enough lead to go I think as long as I put up a few points at the end.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/6/2010 8:38:21 AM | message detail
I wish you luck, dude. I think it would be pretty cool if someone with your user name won.
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/6/2010 8:38:50 AM | message detail
You know man, that many points banked what are the odds that someone will get in front of you, the two people above you can't do you anything if you bank now. Also what are the odds that someone has saved points up for such long time without screwing up that they can pass you? This contest is in your hands if you bank.

KH>KHII is a safe pick btw.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/6/2010 8:41:42 AM | message detail
I know it's a safe pick, but it's also an unnecessary risk which is why I won't take it. And how would I have the contest in my hands? I would have third place down but I wouldn't win.
charmander6000 | Posted 12/6/2010 8:44:01 AM | message detail
I don't know Char. Portal did not beat Gears of War 2 by much more than expected if you compare FFXII to Gears of War from the 2006 GOTY polls. I think GoW is still pretty close to the level it was at in 2006. I think I'm sticking with PM here. I think everyone is too caught up on pre-contest expectations and not letting them go to realize that this should be an incredibly close match either way.

Well don't forget that FFXII defeated KH2 so I'm not sure how reliable the GotY polls are.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 108/124 Today's Matches: LoZ: WW & Oblivion
ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/6/2010 8:44:27 AM | message detail
This one is more risky, and you know if you bank your points at risk you'll be number one.
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Let me present a great man. The one and only of his kind. Ladies and Gentlemen, it's an honor to give you... CTES... umm... well... oh whatever.
ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/6/2010 8:45:47 AM | message detail
GotY polls does NOT help us AT ALL. >_>

GTA won right? Call of Duty won right? That should say enough.
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/6/2010 8:46:47 AM | message detail
I won't be number 1 if I bank here. I won't be anywhere close. I would be a pretty distant third.
WhiteLens | Posted 12/6/2010 8:49:38 AM | message detail
And if you get it wrong, you won't even win any prizes.

But if you want to gamble on the all-or-nothing approach, then that's fine.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/6/2010 8:50:13 AM | message detail
You know you still get a prize for finishing in third

Then again you shouldn't listen to me since I'm currently in 26th if you remove the Lusterboard and I too have a chance at getting a prize.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 108/124 Today's Matches: LoZ: WW & Oblivion
ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/6/2010 8:51:13 AM | message detail
Wait I got it now. Messed up there. Potential score. Comepletely missed that part, I should pay more attention to the battle challenge, I'm ahead of SBAllen. Well then don't bank, but it would really suck if you messed this one up. Also in that case KH vs. KHII is not the one bank on.
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SuperWhiscash | Posted 12/6/2010 8:54:56 AM | message detail
it's Rawk Hawk time in six minutes
gonna get that upset
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/6/2010 8:58:48 AM | message detail
I'm not really interested in any new games right now though. I really only want the Kinect or Move.
charmander6000 | Posted 12/6/2010 8:59:23 AM | message detail
I wonder if Oblivion is going to get its usual bad board vote or brackets.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 108/124 Today's Matches: LoZ: WW & Oblivion
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/6/2010 8:59:47 AM | message detail
I feel like a lot of casual brackets will go PM here.
ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/6/2010 8:59:56 AM | message detail
Good luck dude. Go TTYD.
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Master Moltar | Posted 12/6/2010 9:00:11 AM | message detail
Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door 71.43%

5
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion 28.57%

2
TOTAL VOTES 7
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Moltar Status: 110 Points - Vote: Paper Mario TTYD
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
abdou | Posted 12/6/2010 9:00:25 AM | message detail
ew
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/6/2010 9:00:25 AM | message detail
Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door 58.33% 7
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion 41.67% 5
TOTAL VOTES 12

Beware the upset.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 108/124 Today's Matches: LoZ: WW & Oblivion
Ultimaphazon | Posted 12/6/2010 9:00:27 AM | message detail
Only 30% of the casuals even have have PM in this round
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Mannequin Depressive | Posted 12/6/2010 9:00:29 AM | message detail
Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door 60%

6
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion 40%

4
TOTAL VOTES 10
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ctesjbuvf | Posted 12/6/2010 9:00:30 AM | message detail
Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door 60.61%

20
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion 39.39%

13
TOTAL VOTES 33


Whoooohooooo!!
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melikepizza | Posted 12/6/2010 9:00:33 AM | message detail
ttyd smashing the board vote
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