GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 966
charmander6000 | Posted 12/4/2010 9:54:53 PM | message detail |
Yeah you have to either argue Pokemon GSC dropped in probably its biggest year or that RBY didn't SFF GS. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 104/120 Today's Matches: LoZMM & Pokemon GSC |
Haste_2 | Posted 12/4/2010 9:55:10 PM | message detail |
I
think Majora's Mask is doing pretty well. In same fanbase 4-way
matches, such as what FF9/Cross were in, there was a good chance it
underperformed in relation to FF9, even -if- FF9 wouldn't SFF Chrono
Cross 1-on-1. That's how games/characters of the same fanbase seem to
work in 4-way polls (another example: see how Tifa did against
Sephiroth 4-ways). So far it's looking like CC's proportion to FF9 was
proper, though... Also, I see nothing wrong with saying Chrono Cross and Dragon Age: Origins are around the same level of strength, which would suggest Majora's Mask is slightly under. I'm very curious to see how GSC does tomorrow. I really have no idea how much of an ability Pokemon has to "SFF" other Nintendo games, or, for that matter, ability to be SFFed by stronger Nintendo titles. It could range anywhere from 60-80% tomorrow if you ask me... consult someone else who has a better feel for this if you want a percentage more specific than that! --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
charmander6000 | Posted 12/4/2010 9:56:48 PM | message detail |
I mean RBY didn't LFF GS I don't think there was any SFF. --- BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls GotD Bracket: 104/120 Today's Matches: LoZMM & Pokemon GSC |
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/4/2010 9:58:04 PM | message detail |
Pokemon can probably score a little SFF in the right situations (see: DPP/PoR), but GSC/Mario Kart isn't one of them. --- DFF |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/4/2010 9:58:18 PM | message detail |
From: Hochimihnister | #090 PS1 Square RPGs that came out within a year of eachother? Both easily the worst games in their series. How could they NOT SFF? --- http://i49.tinypic.com/2ry672r.jpg |
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/4/2010 9:58:25 PM | message detail |
I'm
a stats guy and I love this, but I'm really only into it at all during
bracket season. I cram every stat from the past year as soon as the
bracket is released. I'm too knowledgeable to be a casual, but I'm
nowhere near as much of a stats guy as most of the others here. I'm
going to be so mad at myself if I get one of these wrong. I can bank at TTYD and basically guarantee myself first place. But if I want to win I have to not bank until I am a decent amount ahead of Chester, which is where I will be if I don't bank until KOTOR/FFIX. |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/4/2010 9:59:31 PM | message detail |
In
seriousness, just don't bank until KH/KH2. None of the other matches
are really in doubt. Oblivion is going to win pretty simply, and so is
Halo. After you get by those, you're ace. --- "I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer See You Space Cowboy |
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/4/2010 10:00:03 PM | message detail |
That was supposed to be guarantee myself third place if I bank at TTYD. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/4/2010 10:00:10 PM | message detail |
OneAboveAll,
if you want my honest advice, absolutely do not roll the dice on
TTYD/Oblivion. You've got two more freebie matches to get even more
points; after that, banking would be very safe. --- DFF |
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/4/2010 10:00:41 PM | message detail |
Oh wait, you have less points than I thought. Hmm. --- DFF |
HaRRicH | Posted 12/4/2010 10:00:48 PM | message detail |
Hochi forgot this little poll: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2885 --- Nominate Epona...or else. http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/4/2010 10:01:37 PM | message detail |
KH/KHII
should be pretty easily in KH's favor, I think. Why are you so sure
Oblivion wins? I would have said that coming in (it is my bracket pick)
but PM has been looking very strong this contest and Oblivion seems to
be underperforming. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/4/2010 10:01:38 PM | message detail |
From: HaRRicH | #111 After today, do you have any problems whatsoever with Serge being weaker than Isaac? From: ExThaNemesis | #107 (this guy is lying, btw) --- DFF |
Hochimihnister | Posted 12/4/2010 10:02:01 PM | message detail |
Let's not forget the one time CC actually managed to get a character in, Serge did about as well as King of All Cosmos on Tidus http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2885 |
xp1337 | Posted 12/4/2010 10:02:04 PM | message detail |
I
can bank at TTYD and basically guarantee myself first place. But if I
want to win I have to not bank until I am a decent amount ahead of
Chester, which is where I will be if I don't bank until KOTOR/FFIX. I'd have to look at the stats to see just how badly SotC annihilated the upper tiers, but I'm almost positive banking at TTYD/Oblivion guarantees you do not win the contest. In fact, I'd think it makes it more likely you don't finish Top 10 than do. I know banking at KH/KH2 for myself seemed bad for me in terms of finishing Top 10, but you should be in a better position than I was given what SotC just did to upper tiers. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (101/118) MGS2 v SotC |
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/4/2010 10:02:22 PM | message detail |
I
have to agree with ExTha here. I'd go with Oblivion/Halo myself, then
bank once we get to KH/KH2. Then you sit on your huge surplus of
points, win that prize, give one free game to your BFF TheKoolAidShoto,
and everyone learns a valuable lesson. --- The 3DS will be $200 or I'm closing my account - Ngamer64 |
xp1337 | Posted 12/4/2010 10:03:52 PM | message detail |
Hmm, more damage than I expected. KH/KH2 might be a viable spot. Still not sure if it's "Wins the contest" good, but... --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (101/118) MGS2 v SotC |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/4/2010 10:05:50 PM | message detail |
From: TheOneAboveAll | #112 You called SotC right, so I would just do whatever you feel is best here. Oblivion, Halo and KH1 are the favorites, but I can see any of the three screwing you. --- ·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.· http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/9846/ultifinished.png |
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/4/2010 10:06:09 PM | message detail |
There
are no real stats on Oblivion to look at though. It's really annoying
me. If anyone can point me in the direction of a poll with Oblivion in
it before this contest and last year's BGE I would be much obliged. |
ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/4/2010 10:06:52 PM | message detail |
From: KamikazePotato | #113 No I'm not. Oblivion has been very strong and TTYD is a gamecube exclusive mario rpg. I'm not worried about that one in the least. --- "I would totally audition to be Extha's best friend" - Mer See You Space Cowboy |
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/4/2010 10:08:49 PM | message detail |
Why
is Oblivion the favorite? PM did much better on WoW than Oblivion did
in 2009. And Oblivion feels weaker this year than last. |
xp1337 | Posted 12/4/2010 10:10:20 PM | message detail |
From: TheOneAboveAll | #121 Why is Oblivion the favorite? PM did much better on WoW than Oblivion did in 2009. And Oblivion feels weaker this year than last. Presumably because: 1. lol 4way stats 2. Would you take TTYD > Symphonia But then, I'm in the camp that TTYD has a frighteningly realistic chance at this, which is the minority I believe. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (101/118) MGS2 v SotC |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/4/2010 10:10:21 PM | message detail |
Man,
I know this is going to come down quite a bit because MM started way
too high not to bleed all night, but still, color me impressed. (Still gon' lose to Wind Waker if it beats G/S/C though!) --- Support Seifer Almasy (Final Fantasy VIII) for Character Battle IX! http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/9342/banner3seifer.jpg |
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/4/2010 10:10:35 PM | message detail |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4131 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4132 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4050 --- DFF |
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/4/2010 10:12:06 PM | message detail |
I
think I would put both PM and TTYD somewhere around Symphonia, maybe I
little higher. But I acknowledge that I underestimate Symphonia so I'm
a little stuck. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/4/2010 10:12:47 PM | message detail |
Yesterday's chart: Time | MGS2 | SOTC | Votes 0:05 | 49.59% | 50.41% | 730 1:00 | 49.57% | 50.43% | 7052 2:00 | 50.68% | 49.32% | 6373 3:00 | 49.76% | 50.24% | 5758 4:00 | 49.70% | 50.30% | 5429 5:00 | 49.47% | 50.53% | 4661 6:00 | 50.84% | 49.16% | 4339 7:00 | 50.64% | 49.36% | 4060 8:00 | 48.27% | 51.73% | 3924 9:00 | 49.00% | 51.00% | 3284 10:00 | 50.66% | 49.34% | 3034 11:00 | 50.53% | 49.47% | 2907 12:00 | 50.71% | 49.29% | 3084 "What do you mean SOTC cheated? MGS2 got more votes in each of the final three hours!" </Bacon during Mario World/Mario 3/Mario 1/Zelda 1> Also, LOL California vote, no match for Texas Fourth Quarter Shadow of the Colossus – 50.00% Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty – 49.96% The Sims – 30.65% Banjo-Tooie – 30.30% Nice, close-knit group here. --- http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2369/mythbattlers.jpg http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png |
-Tofa7- | Posted 12/4/2010 10:13:40 PM | message detail |
Oblivion has been very strong and TTYD is a gamecube exclusive mario rpg. And Paper Mario is a N64 RPG released at the end of a consoles life cycle, and it managed to stomp the crap out of WoW, the biggest MMORPG of all time. Saying that Oblivion has an easy victory is just stupid at this point. The match is very much debatable. --- Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore "Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..." |
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/4/2010 10:14:13 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #126 *flexes* and BT under The Sims is disgusting. --- "You brought your *****, to the waffle hut?" |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2010 10:16:03 PM | message detail |
There
will be 32 matches left after TTYD/Oblivion, so if you bank there,
you'll lose 3200 + 300 = 3500 points to those who get it right. Over
the 2 matches before TTYD/Oblivion, you'll pick up 8300 - 300 = 8000
points. That's a net gain of 4500 on the leaderboard assuming everyone
gets everything right, so that would land you in 3rd behind Chester and
DarkEspeon. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
Big Bob | Posted 12/4/2010 10:18:01 PM | message detail |
I'm
busy playing catchup on the battle bracket. I've gotten a ton of lucky
matches, and I'd love to bank, but if I did, there would be no way to
catch up to the leaderboard. I'm PRETTY sure Oblivion has its match;
it's stronger than WoW, it's not going to draw Anti-Votes like WoW did,
and at this point, TTYD is "Just another Mario Game". And again,
Oblivion's the kind of game you could label "Game of the Decade", and
I'll take any advantage I can at this point. Still debating whether or not to stick to my bracket and pick Uncharted 2, or go with Halo. Hmm... --- http://card.mygamercard.net/Mach+Tornado.png |
xp1337 | Posted 12/4/2010 10:20:40 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #129 There will be 32 matches left after TTYD/Oblivion, so if you bank there, you'll lose 3200 + 300 = 3500 points to those who get it right. Over the 2 matches before TTYD/Oblivion, you'll pick up 8300 - 300 = 8000 points. That's a net gain of 4500 on the leaderboard assuming everyone gets everything right, so that would land you in 3rd behind Chester and DarkEspeon. Yeah, but you have to factor in the brackets not currently on the leaderboard but have decent streaks. I think that'd put them in control. I think that's enough time for them to pass, though admittedly it likely requires them to go near perfect. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (101/118) MGS2 v SotC |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 12/4/2010 10:20:47 PM | message detail |
Let's put TTYD in its place here. "Gamecube-exclusive mario rpg" "gamecube mario rpg" "mario" "rpg" See what that means? TTYD to 70-30 Oblivion with Noble Nine tier performance tbh --- Placeholder anti-capslock sig. |
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/4/2010 10:21:32 PM | message detail |
Paper
Mario sucked last year which is why I think everyone (including myself)
is underrating it. But it has proven very strong this year for some
reason. PM would not have put up 60% on WoW last year and Oblivion
didn't come close. |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2010 10:21:47 PM | message detail |
Actually,
there's one person with 46,500 at risk points, which is a streak of 31.
So yeah, that person could easily catch you if you bank. There's 4 more
people at or above 30,000 at risk points currently, and they could
catch you depending on how many banked points they have now. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/4/2010 10:24:12 PM | message detail |
We
keep saying 'TTYD wouldn't beat Symphonia', but I'm not even sure
Oblivion beats Symphonia this year. I'm pretty sure I take ToS to do
better than 62% on Soul Calibur II. --- DFF |
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/4/2010 10:25:17 PM | message detail |
They
won't be able to catch me that easily. They would still need to get all
three debatable matches remaining right within the next ten matches.
But I think I'm going for the win. Which means no banking until at
least KH/KHII and possibly a few matches past that. |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 12/4/2010 10:25:53 PM | message detail |
From: TheOneAboveAll | #133 Let's see Nintendo game (AKA casual appeal that gets taken away by bigger Ninty)? Check Mario game (AKA has automatic votes from Mario fans on top of what it'd get if it involved a generic protagonist)? Check Cultish game (AKA overlap absolutely kills it because it gets reduced to its core value quickly)? Check. Nobody expected anything for good reason: it got its face pounded in, but hilariously, Metroid Prime might have pulled a Mario/Samus on it, SFFing it very heavily to make it look terrible. --- Placeholder anti-capslock sig. |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2010 10:25:57 PM | message detail |
Both
TTYD and Oblivion would beat Symphonia. If ToS is supposed to be an eye
test, it's a test that Paper Mario passes with flying colors.
Stats-wise, there's probably a good argument for Symphonia beating the
Paper Mario games, but intuitively? You need a different game to make
that argument. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/4/2010 10:26:46 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #138 Uh, intuitively Symphonia beats both Paper Mario games very, very easily. --- DFF |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2010 10:28:38 PM | message detail |
Not
to me. It's a Mario RPG against a Tales game. Paper Mario and Paper
Mario 2 were well-liked, well-known, games to boot. Why would any Tales
game be able to beat that? It's surprising how strong ToS is as it is. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/4/2010 10:28:44 PM | message detail |
You're
really arguing intuition over stats Red Sox? I think I just annihilated
this board using stats instead of everyone else's intuition. |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/4/2010 10:29:20 PM | message detail |
I think people are underrating the first two SoulCalibur games. Those were huge. --- ·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.· This is good... isn't it? |
red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2010 10:30:01 PM | message detail |
Nope,
I believe in stats over intuition 95% of the time. Just pointing out
that I don't like the Tales of Symphonia intuition argument against
TTYD. --- Nominate Crono so he can get a higher seed and avoid being fed to Clinkeroth early in the contest. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/4/2010 10:30:35 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | #142 Maybe 6 years ago, they were. These days Soul Calibur gets crushed by Tales of in the Namco series poll (while almost losing to Tekken), and SC1 gets tripled by FF8. --- DFF |
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/4/2010 10:31:32 PM | message detail |
SoulCaliber has been in enough contests for us to realize it's not impressing even if it shouldn't. |
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/4/2010 10:31:40 PM | message detail |
Tales of Symphonia was just bigger. Made a bigger splash. TTYD especially was overshadowed by it. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1870 --- DFF |
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/4/2010 10:31:46 PM | message detail |
Even if it should. |
-Tofa7- | Posted 12/4/2010 10:34:35 PM | message detail |
From: TheOneAboveAll | Posted: 12/5/2010 5:28:44 PM | #141 That's one match. I could easily counter it with Golden Sun vs San Andreas or any number of other matches that the stats have failed to predict this contest. Paper Mario was under rated last contest. How underrated is up to you to judge and apply when sizing up the Oblivion match. --- Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore "Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..." |
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/4/2010 10:34:48 PM | message detail |
That
might be true KP, but I think that time has caught TTYD up to ToS a lot
since then. And I think MP might was probably pulling a decent amount
of SFF in that match. Symphonia and Baten clearly had the least SFF
with the rest of that group, even if they were all on the GC. |
Big Bob | Posted 12/4/2010 10:35:17 PM | message detail |
Man, remember when Soul Calibur almost beat Kingdom Hearts? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/Mach+Tornado.png |
