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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 966

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/4/2010 9:17:32 PM | message detail
Surprised no one made another one before the topic hit 500.


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

Noble Nine - Link, Cloud, Solid Snake, Sephiroth, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 12/4/2010 9:18:10 PM | message detail
No amount of hugs are enough for Yo right now. Ace 500!
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Regaro_Ukiera | Posted 12/4/2010 9:18:41 PM | message detail
Goddamn, Luster

Get control of more of the Battle Leaderboard, if you can
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My Heart is Empty. It is empty because there is nothing.
voltch | Posted 12/4/2010 9:18:41 PM | message detail
oh wow, SotC with a crazy high prediction percentage compared to expectations.
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Nyoro~n
vcharon | Posted 12/4/2010 9:18:47 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/4/2010 9:18:50 PM | message detail
Sorry Luster. Didn't see yours. It took a while for this one to come up.
Hochimihnister | Posted 12/4/2010 9:18:52 PM | message detail
Zelda disappoints me again. FFIX doubled this crap last games contest. Majora's Mask will ultimately barely outdo that
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/4/2010 9:19:19 PM | message detail
lol mgs2

lol gsc

Majora's beasting here. I laugh at any of the fools that thought Pokemon was going to beat it. Hell, I'm liking MM > FFX at this rate.
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Haste_2 | Posted 12/4/2010 9:19:29 PM | message detail
Maybe someone already posted this, but....

Banked: 552
Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty: 6256
Shadow of the Colossus: 6258

How interesting.

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xp1337 | Posted 12/4/2010 9:19:30 PM | message detail
Surprised no one made another one before the topic hit 500.

Not too surprising given MGS2/SotC was dominating everyone's attention. And then the site crashed.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (101/118) MGS2 v SotC
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/4/2010 9:19:31 PM | message detail
Yeah, this might be the most impressive performance of the contest so far. MM is looking like it could beat Melee here.

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DFF
transience | Posted 12/4/2010 9:19:40 PM | message detail
best part about this past match - we get a legit comparison of MGS4 and MGS2. I get the sense that SOTC could be the game people rally behind to get rid of all this Metal Gear, too.
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/4/2010 9:20:05 PM | message detail

From: Hochimihnister | #007
Zelda disappoints me again. FFIX doubled this crap last games contest. Majora's Mask will ultimately barely outdo that


lol sff
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/4/2010 9:20:25 PM | message detail
Sorry Luster. Didn't see yours. It took a while for this one to come up.

That's okay. We can use this topic instead, while you can delete your topic (or close it if someone posts in your topic).


Regaro_Ukiera | Posted 12/5/2010 12:18:41 AM | message detail
Goddamn, Luster

Get control of more of the Battle Leaderboard, if you can


Nah, I have no plans to fill out battle picks on any of the accounts I have on the battle leaderboard.


RockMFR 5 | Posted 12/5/2010 12:14:21 AM | message detail
Well I think Luster's going to be on the battle leaderboard until the end of the contest now.


Probably. I was surprised that the last match brought many of my accounts back to the battle leaderboard due to the top users getting killed badly.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/4/2010 9:20:35 PM | message detail

From: transience | #012
best part about this past match - we get a legit comparison of MGS4 and MGS2. I get the sense that SOTC could be the game people rally behind to get rid of all this Metal Gear, too.


SotC to win the contest, L-block style?

You heard it here first.
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I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
transience | Posted 12/4/2010 9:20:37 PM | message detail
this should end in the 60s -- and probably the mid-60s -- but awesome show from Majora regardless. I didn't really give it much of a chance vs. GSC until right now.
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xyzzy
TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/4/2010 9:20:46 PM | message detail
I think MGS4 is way too strong for SotC to even come close too.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/4/2010 9:20:55 PM | message detail

From: transience | #012
best part about this past match - we get a legit comparison of MGS4 and MGS2. I get the sense that SOTC could be the game people rally behind to get rid of all this Metal Gear, too.


Same fear. It's got another day match as well. No, I don't think it will win, but it should put up a very respectable performance. No 60/40s there.
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vcharon | Posted 12/4/2010 9:21:06 PM | message detail
Does this confirm Wander and SotC have the largest difference of strength from character to game? I can't think of anyone as weak as Wander who has a game that could beat any MGS game.
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:>
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 12/4/2010 9:21:20 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #011
Yeah, this might be the most impressive performance of the contest so far. MM is looking like it could beat Melee here.


Let's not say foolish things here

I mean, uh...Melee would probably 85-15 CC. The difference between MM and Melee is like the difference between Ryu and Mario.

...Of course, given that Ryu is a pretty decent high midcard...yeah, not gonna complain here. Might be enough to down GSC!
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TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/4/2010 9:21:35 PM | message detail
Deleted it. Sorry again.
The Mana Sword | Posted 12/4/2010 9:21:46 PM | message detail
SotC to win the contest, L-block style?

You heard it here first.


Would be the best contest ever.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
Regaro_Ukiera | Posted 12/4/2010 9:21:55 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #014
Nah, I have no plans to fill out battle picks on any of the accounts I have on the battle leaderboard.


That confident you've got your free karma in hand already?
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transience | Posted 12/4/2010 9:21:59 PM | message detail
MGS4's not that strong really. it might 58/42 SOTC, but that's not exactly amazing. that game has fallen pretty far.

Diablo, MGS2, MGS4 and SOTC will have accurate reads now. that's sweet.
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xyzzy
Hochimihnister | Posted 12/4/2010 9:22:02 PM | message detail
lol sff

Chrono is immune to SFF from Final Fantasy. Even the mighty FFVII could never SFF CT. FFIX doubled Chrono Cross fair and square and Majora's Mask can barely outdo that
NGC3372 | Posted 12/4/2010 9:22:03 PM | message detail

From: Haste_2 | #009
Maybe someone already posted this, but....

Banked: 552
Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty: 6256
Shadow of the Colossus: 6258

How interesting.


Wow SotC favored by +2 battle brackets, lol. And SBAllen picked SotC too.
vcharon | Posted 12/4/2010 9:22:28 PM | message detail

From: KanzarisKelshen | #020
Let's not say foolish things here

I mean, uh...Melee would probably 85-15 CC. The difference between MM and Melee is like the difference between Ryu and Mario.

...Of course, given that Ryu is a pretty decent high midcard...yeah, not gonna complain here. Might be enough to down GSC!


Wow, don't be ridiculous. CC isn't that weak.
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Hochimihnister | Posted 12/4/2010 9:22:41 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
charmander6000 | Posted 12/4/2010 9:23:04 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Closest Matches
1. Team Fortress 2 – 50.03% vs. Fable – 49.97% (R1) – 0.06%
2. Shadow of the Colossus – 50.04% vs. Metal Gear Solid 2 – 49.96% (R2) – 0.08%
3. Persona 4 – 50.27% vs. Dead Rising – 49.73% (R2) – 0.54%
4. Morrowind – 50.45% vs. Warcraft II – 49.55% (R1) – 0.90%
5. Street Fighter IV – 50.75% vs. Sonic Adventure 2 – 49.25% (R1) – 1.50%
6. Deus Ex – 50.76% vs. Rock Band 2 – 49.24% (R1) – 1.52%
7. Pokemon RSE – 50.77% vs. Grand Theft Auto IV – 49.23% (R1) – 1.54%
8. Dead Rising – 50.91% vs. The World Ends With You – 49.09% (R1) – 1.82%
9. God of War – 51.46% vs. Tales of Symphonia – 48.54% (R2) – 2.92%
10. Marvel vs. Capcom 2 – 51.56% vs. New Super Mario Bros. Wii – 48.44% (R1) – 3.12%

Top 10 Smallest Day Vote Gaps
1. Team Fortress 2 – 30893 vs. Fable – 30856 (R1) – 37
2. Shadow of the Colossus – 26975 vs. Metal Gear Solid 2 – 26930 (R2) – 45
3. Persona 4 – 23368 vs. Dead Rising – 23117 (R2) – 251
4. Morrowind – 25522 vs. Warcraft III – 25066 (R1) – 456
5. Deus Ex – 25117 vs. Rock Band 2 – 24365 (R1) – 752
6. Street Fighter IV – 27481 vs. Sonic Adventure 2 – 26673 (R1) – 808
7. Pokemon RSE – 30021 vs. Grand Theft Auto IV – 29113 (R1) – 908
8. Marvel vs. Capcom 2 – 26911 vs. New Super Mario Bros. Wii – 25287 (R1) – 1624
9. Golden Sun – 30920 vs. GTA: San Andreas – 26674 (R2) – 4246
10. CoD4: Modern Warfare – 26548 vs. Perfect Dark – 21350 (R2) – 5198

Top 10 Most Impressive Night Losers
1. Super Mario Sunshine (R1) – 20315
2. Tales of Symphonia (R2) – 19489
3. Resident Evil 5 (R1) – 19077
4. Bioshock (R2) – 18918
5. Diablo II (R2) – 18212
6. Demon’s Souls (R1) – 18134
7. Devil May Cry (R1) – 18107
8. The World Ends With You (R1) – 17680
9. Legend of Dragoon (R1) – 17393
10. Dissidia (R1) – 17027

Top 10 Most Impressive Day Losers
1. Fable (R1) – 30856
2. Grand Theft Auto IV (R1) – 29113
3. Metal Gear Solid 2 (R2) – 26930
4. GTA: San Andreas (R2) – 26674
5. Sonic Adventure 2 (R1) – 26673
6. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (R1) – 25287
7. Warcraft III (R1) – 25066
8. Rock Band 2 (R1) – 24365
9. Dead Rising (R2) – 23117
10. World of Warcraft (R2) – 22563

Top 10 Least Impressive Day Winners
1. Persona 4 (R2) – 23368
2. Deus Ex (R1) – 25117
3. Morrowind (R1) – 25522
4. Persona 4 (R1) – 25820
5. Half-Life 2 (R2) – 26337
6. CoD4: Modern Warfare (R2) – 26548
7. Marvel vs. Capcom 2 (R1) – 26911
8. Shadow of the Colossus (R2) – 26975
9. Assassin’s Creed II (R1) – 27315
10. Street Fighter IV (R1) – 27481

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 104/120 Today's Matches: LoZMM & Pokemon GSC
-Tofa7- | Posted 12/4/2010 9:23:42 PM | message detail
I wonder how MGS2 VS SoTC would have gone if placed in any other division.

I mean, we effectively had 3 Metal Gear matches occur in the space of 48 hours. Maybe voters got sick of seeing so many Metal Gear games appear in polls in rapid succession there was a backlash causing MGS2 to go up against a lot of anti-votes.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/4/2010 9:23:55 PM | message detail

From: TheOneAboveAll | #017
I think MGS4 is way too strong for SotC to even come close too.


That match is going to be a lot closer than people are giving it credit. I wouldn't be surprised if SotC finishes near or above Diablo 2. There isn't THAT much difference between the 3 MGS games in this bracket. Especially now that MGS4 has been out for a couple of years and a lot of its strength has pretty much disappeared.
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edwardsdv | Posted 12/4/2010 9:24:32 PM | message detail
wow if maisface has kh2 i can no longer win this :(

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/4/2010 9:24:41 PM | message detail
Majora's Mask is going gangbusters. This is a night match against a Square RPG that just beat up another RPG. It's Nintendo vs. Square in Square's timeframe. Even if MM bleeds like crazy, this will still end above a doubling, and even a doubling will look excellent. Pokemon better bring its A-game.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 12/4/2010 9:25:52 PM | message detail
I highly doubt Chrono Cross gets the Square timeframe. Europe hates Cross as much as they do Trigger.

Zelda won't dip that much.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
transience | Posted 12/4/2010 9:25:54 PM | message detail
let's see what happens with the night vote first. I bet CC has a great one.. though it didn't come out in Europe so who knows.
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xyzzy
Hochimihnister | Posted 12/4/2010 9:26:59 PM | message detail
You guys do realize that Chrono Cross got doubled by Modern Warfare 2 in the last Game of the Decade poll last year, right? Majora's Mask is looking a bit above Modern Warfare 2 from the looks of it.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/4/2010 9:27:41 PM | message detail
That confident you've got your free karma in hand already?

I am fairly confident in my free Karma. Bacon's not catching up to my alts with 74100 banked points. His only chance is to not bank for the rest of the contest and he hasn't banked any huge streaks so far in this contest.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Dr_Football, Guru Champ!
TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/4/2010 9:27:49 PM | message detail
Hochi has yet to be wrong this contest(or ever, if I'm not mistaken). I say we believe him.
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/4/2010 9:28:15 PM | message detail
I think MGS4 is way too strong for SotC to even come close too.

Fun Fact: MGS2 did better on FFX than Diablo II that it would have defeated it by more than what MGS4 did.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 104/120 Today's Matches: LoZMM & Pokemon GSC
Big Bob | Posted 12/4/2010 9:28:16 PM | message detail
You can say it's Metal Gear backlash, but SotC had an awful picture, too. Blurry and grainy as hell.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 12/4/2010 9:28:32 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #033
Majora's Mask is going gangbusters. This is a night match against a Square RPG that just beat up another RPG. It's Nintendo vs. Square in Square's timeframe. Even if MM bleeds like crazy, this will still end above a doubling, and even a doubling will look excellent. Pokemon better bring its A-game.


I wouldn't say a doubling is excellent, Yo. That's a pretty expected result, and 'as expected' isn't enough when you're dealing with a game supposed to dispatch you. The number to watch would be 68% IMO. If MM stays above that (that is, not just above the doubly but getting close to super-blowout territory) and GSC doesn't look like ass, the battle deserves being discussed.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/4/2010 9:29:19 PM | message detail

From: The Mana Sword | #034
I highly doubt Chrono Cross gets the Square timeframe. Europe hates Cross as much as they do Trigger.

Zelda won't dip that much.


http://img.imgcake.com/Radix1337/youngcookiemonsterspoilgifva.gif
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-Tofa7- | Posted 12/4/2010 9:29:33 PM | message detail
So what % is G/S/C expected to get against Mario Kart Wii? I don't think Mario Kart Wii has much strength at all tbqh.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 12/4/2010 9:30:14 PM | message detail
where do you people find these things anyway
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
gearofages | Posted 12/4/2010 9:30:29 PM | message detail

From: Hochimihnister | #036
You guys do realize that Chrono Cross got doubled by Modern Warfare 2 in the last Game of the Decade poll last year, right? Majora's Mask is looking a bit above Modern Warfare 2 from the looks of it.


I can't find this poll.
tgs2 | Posted 12/4/2010 9:30:30 PM | message detail

From: -Tofa7- | #043
So what % is G/S/C expected to get against Mario Kart Wii? I don't think Mario Kart Wii has much strength at all tbqh.


Mid sixites?
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charmander6000 | Posted 12/4/2010 9:30:35 PM | message detail
So what % is G/S/C expected to get against Mario Kart Wii? I don't think Mario Kart Wii has much strength at all tbqh.

After what MKWii did last round I expect high 60s as a minimum.
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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
GotD Bracket: 104/120 Today's Matches: LoZMM & Pokemon GSC
Regaro_Ukiera | Posted 12/4/2010 9:30:39 PM | message detail

From: -Tofa7- | #043
So what % is G/S/C expected to get against Mario Kart Wii? I don't think Mario Kart Wii has much strength at all tbqh.


Considering it let PW get 40something %?

I'd be shocked if GSC fell below 70 on it tbh
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It's one for all and all for one
We work together, common sons, Never need to wonder how or why...
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 12/4/2010 9:30:45 PM | message detail

From: -Tofa7- | #043
So what % is G/S/C expected to get against Mario Kart Wii? I don't think Mario Kart Wii has much strength at all tbqh.


Something between...a doubling and a tripling maybe? Guessing more to the side of the doubling.
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transience | Posted 12/4/2010 9:30:57 PM | message detail
65% updates. power hour is coming to an end soon.
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xyzzy